Foreign-policy experts predict that an Iranian attack on Israel is just a matter of time

  
Via:  buzz-of-the-orient  •  one week ago  •  11 comments

By:   Israel Kasnett

Foreign-policy experts predict that an Iranian attack on Israel is just a matter of time
Tehran has continued to engage in destabilization efforts and heavily supports terror activity and weapons buildup in the Middle East.

Iran is getting closer and closer to having atomic weapons, and the ability to deliver them, while AEIA acquiesces and the world sleeps.


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


Foreign-policy experts predict that an Iranian attack on Israel is just a matter of time



And if it does, there will have to be a massive retaliation against its interests by the Jewish state, ideally with reassurances of backup from the United States.



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Illustrative: Fateh-110 ballistic missiles being fired as part of Iran’s “Great Prophet 7” military exercise in July 2012. Credit: Hossein Velayati via Wikimedia Commons





(November 4, 2019   /   JNS)  As Iranians took to the streets this week to commemorate  40 years since the US embassy takeover in 1979 , Iran announced new violations of the nuclear deal it signed in 2015. The rogue Islamic Republic admitted that it now operates 60 advanced IR-6 centrifuges and is working on a new type of centrifuge that will work 50 times faster than what is currently permitted under the deal.

This announcement comes after Iran has engaged in attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities, shooting down an American drone, and, of course, its ongoing and aggressive efforts to build a war machine against Israel in Syria and elsewhere.

For its part, on Monday the US Treasury Department announced  new sanctions against nine Iranian military commanders and officials . US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran in May 2018 and reimposed tough sanctions in an effort to curb the regime’s destabilizing behavior in the Middle East and around the globe.

Regardless, Tehran has continued to engage in destabilization efforts and heavily supports terror activity and weapons buildup in the Middle East.

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and currently an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told JNS that the Iranians want to remain far away from the Jewish state, but at the same time build “a ring of fire” around it.  Iran supports Hezbollah in Lebanon  and the terror organization is estimated to have as many as 100,000 missiles. Iran is also trying hard to create an independent war machine in Syria, which Israel has been working to dismantle. According to foreign and some Israeli reports, Israel has struck 300 targets in Syria so far.

According to Amidror, Iran realized that Israel has been succeeding in Syria, so it began to build a branch of its independent war machine in Iraq, taking advantage of the fact that the Iraqis don’t have total control of some parts of their land. For Iran, the idea is to have a military capability close to Israel, while it itself remains at a distance.

“An interesting question,” Amidror said, “is what should Israel’s reaction be in such a situation? We know the head of the snake is in Iran. Will Israel go after targets in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen? Or will we go directly to the head of the snake?”

Iran has the capability to attack Israel from multiple locations, including Lebanon and Syria – and now Iraq and possibly Yemen – as Netanyahu mentioned recently.

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Iran’s Fordow fuel-enrichment plant. Credit: Screenshot via YouTube video created by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies for the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

‘This will be complicated’

Eytan Gilboa, professor and director of the Center for International Communication at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan and a senior research associate at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, told JNS that a number of elements have changed recently that impact Israel’s preparedness and decision-making.

First, Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields. Second, the United States withdrew from Syria. And third, Iranian provocations in the Persian Gulf were not met with any aggressive American answer.

“We also see Islamic Jihad in Gaza, on orders from Iran, trying to sabotage and undermine the situation there,” he said.

Like Amidror, Gilboa noted that Israel has been trying to prevent Iran from building another front in Syria, saying “this strategy has been extended to Iraq.”

He laid out the current state of affairs from Israel’s perspective. According to Gilboa, “it is obvious, for all kinds of reasons, that Iran would not attack Israel directly from its own territory. Iran lost some of the surprise that could have been inflicted on Israel had it not used cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia.”

Israel is preparing adequate answers to this kind of threat as it expects Iran to attack it with precision-guided cruise missiles and drones.

EC0MgJNX4AEJXPj-880x495.jpg

Iranian Quds force sites targeted by Israel in Aqrabeh, Syria, on Aug. 24, 2019, to thwart an imminent drone attack. Photo: IDF Twitter.

Gilboa suggested that the components of Israeli strategy must first be to reveal Iran’s plan. Then, Israel must threaten direct and severe retaliation. Finally, Israel must make it clear that Syria and Lebanon will pay the price if attacks on Israel originate on their soil.

“If Iran orders Nasrallah to attack Israel, this will be complicated,” said Gilboa. “In the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Israel distinguished between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. This is no longer the case. If Israel comes under attack, it will attack Lebanon, including Hezbollah. The same is true for Syria. Israel is trying to persuade [Syrian President] Basher Assad and Russia that if Israel comes under attack from Syria, it is Assad who will pay the price.”

Additionally, continued Gilboa, Israel must inform Russia of potential Israeli action after any attack by Iran. “These exchanges of fire between Israel and Iranian attempts to build a base in Syria is completely not in Russia’s interest, and this is why Russia is not protesting Israeli military actions in Syria,” he said.

Israel should work to procure an American statement of support and must coordinate with the United States to announce that attacks on Israel will trigger American action.

“On the face of it,” Gilboa said, “these components should create some level of deterrence. Israel’s main strategy is to create deterrence or at least limit any potential Iranian attack.”

If Iran does indeed attack, there will have to be a massive retaliation against Iranian interests.

According to Gilboa, Europe should not be expected to join in the fight against Iran’s hegemonic ambitions and support of global terrorism. They are “stupid and deaf,” he charged, and only trying to appease Iran.

Both Amidror and Gilboa agree that Iran is certainly bent on Israel in its crosshairs.

“Confrontation between Iran and Israel is unavoidable,” said Gilboa. “There is great probability for some Iranian military action; this is something Israel is preparing for.”

“Our assumption,” said Amidror, “is not a question of if, but when.”

Reprinted with permission from  JNS.org .



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Buzz of the Orient
1  seeder  Buzz of the Orient    one week ago

If Iran attacks Israel, it will be because of its leadership and Revolutionary Military forces, not the general public of Iran who I believe have no desire to attack Israel, so if Iran or at its behest its proxies do attack, I truly regret what is going to happen to their innocent civilians, who are bound to be "casualties of war" (an expression I believe was coined by the Americans who have also been put in the position over the years of having created their share of them - in fact it was the title of a movie starring Sean Penn).

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
1.1  seeder  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1    one week ago
"...ideally with reassurances of backup from the United States."

...which I believe would happen provided the Republicans are in control, but I'm not confident that it would happen if the Democrats were, taking into consideration the recent attitude of their leading candidates.

 
 
 
Kavika
2  Kavika     one week ago

What gives me pause in this scenario of Iran attacking Israel with atomic weapons is the fall out from using such weapons. By fall out I mean the areas that will be devasted by the fall out from the weapons. IMO, it will reach far beyond Israel. 

IMO that would make it a non-starter. 

Your belief that the republicans would back up Israel and the doubt that dems would is, IMO, not valid. 

One only has to look at what happened to the Kurds by a republican president. His move gave Iran a bigger foothold in Syria than before. Which is very detrimental to Israel.

Your view implies that Democrats are not also pro-Israel, which is not the case. Support for Israel can be found in both parties. However, it does seem to be the case that Republicans emphasize / advertise their support more than Democratic candidates. This is likely explained by the right-wing Christian Zionist evangelicals who are a core part of the Republican base as well as the fact that Republican candidates need to sway Jewish voters in spite of domestic policies that go against Jewish values / concerns (such as maintaining the separation of church and state); by contrast.

And there are three dem congresswomen that are anti-Isreal. Those three are not the whole dem party.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1  seeder  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika @2    one week ago
"And there are three dem congresswomen that are anti-Isreal."

And the rest of the Democrats who support them, as they did by watering down the resolution about opposing antisemitism, making it a wishy-washy resolution.

And by allowing Israel-bashing members to then remain members of the Foreign Affairs Committee.

And by sheepishly following the leading candidates for POTUS of the Party who support BDS and J-Street, organizations that would prefer to see the destruction of Israel, and curtailing of the military aid that helps Israel defend itself, sitting as the sole bulwark of genuine democracy and an ally of the USA in the middle of untrustworthy and hateful nations.

"Those three are not the whole dem party."

No they aren't.  There are actually a few who ARE supportive of Israel and are not cowed into following the leaders of the Party.

Lets not forget the Israel isn't the ONLY country that Iran is targeting with their slogans and flag-burnings, while they continue to defy UN resolutions as they develop their ICBMs.

Iranians burn American flags, chant 'death to US' to mark embassy seizure

https://www.rt.com/news/iran-us-embassy-protest-822

embassy-hold-anti-us.si.jpg

iran-burning-flag.jpg

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.1  seeder  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1    one week ago
"IMO that would make it a non-starter."

Since when are Muslims not afraid of their martyrdom achieved when destroying the enemy?  It was a Hamas leader who said we Muslims have a secret weapon to use against the Jews - Jews sanctify life, and we desire a martyrs death.

Did the pilots of the planes that hit the WTC give a damn that there were Muslims in the buildings?

 
 
 
Kavika
2.1.2  Kavika   replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1.1    one week ago

Depending on the type and size of the nuclear weapons used the fall out could cover numerous Muslim counties including Iran.The vast majority of those dying outside of Israel will be Muslims..That is something that I don't believe even Iran would want to deal with, the wholesale killing of Muslims. 

 
 
 
Kavika
2.1.3  Kavika   replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1    one week ago

Iran has been burning the US flag and chanting ''death to Amerian since the 1970's. 

It seems that in your opinion the dems will forsake Israel. I doubt that that will happen. It doesn't seem to matter since the belief is that Trump and the Evangelicals will come to their rescue.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.4  seeder  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika @2.1.3    one week ago

Surely, Kavika, you must admit there has been a negative change in the attitude of the Democrats concerning Israel over the last little while. It may be only some Democrats, but the rest are not contradicting it.

 
 
 
Kavika
2.1.5  Kavika   replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1.4    one week ago

Buzz, the three are idiots IMO and hopefully, they will be booted out in the next election. 

As for a change in some dems regarding Israel, that is probably true but in no way do I see the dems abandoning Israel. 

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.6  seeder  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika @2.1.5    one week ago

Hope you're right, because there's bound to be a change of government eventually.

 
 
 
Ronin2
3  Ronin2    one week ago

A few things.

There is no denying Iran is a regional threat, and they aspire to be a global threat.

  1. Those snap back sanctions that Obama had in his deal were a joke. Europe, Russia, and China are more interested in Iranian money.  They will never back sanctions in the UN Security Council.
  2. The reason the US is spending so much money in the region (Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia) is so we don't have to enter into any regional conflicts. If Iran is a threat it is up to those three to deal with it. Of course it doesn't work that way. Biggest waste of US resources ever.
  3. The US is still in Syria. Seems the author didn't hear. US troops with heavy armor moved into the northeastern Syrian oil fields to "protect them". The US has not changed it's operational status in Syria. The US still inform Russia where we are bombing; and we just took out ISIS/ISIL's leader.
  4. Threatening the Syrian and Lebanese governments is a joke. Syria has been in a proxy civil war forever. They are more concerned about uniting their country than anything else. They have taken no actions against Israel conducting operations. They don't have the resources to spare to expand the war to take on Hamas/Hezbollah.  Lebanon is even in a worse situation, they don't even have a real military to take on heavily armed extreme Palestinian factions. If Israel's goal is to further destabilize the countries around them even further, it is a self defeating one. Or it could just be another land grab. 

I would love it if the US would stay out of the largest sand box on the planet. The resources spent there are just not worth it.

 
 
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