Biden's presidential bid is over, even if he isn't ready to accept it
Category: News & PoliticsVia: tig • 7 months ago • 56 comments
By: Tiana Lowe
I think the author paints Biden's picture a bit too much on the negative side, but Biden certainly is in scramble mode and is far more likely to fail than to succeed.
Joe Biden could survive a year of media disdain. He could survive a presidential primary field racing each other to the left. He could afford an onslaught of attacks from President Trump and his allies. What he could not afford was a dismal fourth-place showing in the Iowa caucuses, a collapse in his national polling, and the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire not awarding a single delegate to the dominant front-runner of the past year.
The results are in, and Biden is done. He and Elizabeth Warren will both have failed to win a delegate in the Granite State. If Biden's demographic firewall had held, losing the first two tiny, ultrawhite states wouldn't have mattered so much. But the same Quinnipiac poll that found that he collapsed by nearly 10 points to second place nationally also found that nearly half of Biden's black supporters dropped him in under a month.
Biden's entire candidacy depended on his perceived electability, and, even more than his aggregate polling, his electability depended on his stable support from the majority of black supporters, a bellwether of success in Democratic presidential primaries. Without them, he's toast. Just as with his prior two presidential campaigns, Biden's third could end without him winning a state, let alone a delegate.
Barring some extraordinary developments, Biden simply has no path to the presidency. He's too damaged coming out of the first two races to be able to maintain his standing going into the later states. He is low on cash, and there's no reason to expect his poor finishes will help on that front. He's been out-earned from the left and outpaced from behind. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are surging at the vital moment that Biden has slowed to a halt. Meanwhile, Michael Bloomberg is waiting in the wings with a pitch to centrists and an unlimited bank account at his disposal. It's over, whether or not he's willing to admit it.