Biden's presidential bid is over, even if he isn't ready to accept it
I think the author paints Biden's picture a bit too much on the negative side, but Biden certainly is in scramble mode and is far more likely to fail than to succeed.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Joe Biden could survive a year of media disdain. He could survive a presidential primary field racing each other to the left. He could afford an onslaught of attacks from President Trump and his allies. What he could not afford was a dismal fourth-place showing in the Iowa caucuses, a collapse in his national polling, and the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire not awarding a single delegate to the dominant front-runner of the past year.
The results are in, and Biden is done. He and Elizabeth Warren will both have failed to win a delegate in the Granite State. If Biden's demographic firewall had held, losing the first two tiny, ultrawhite states wouldn't have mattered so much. But the same Quinnipiac poll that found that he collapsed by nearly 10 points to second place nationally also found that nearly half of Biden's black supporters dropped him in under a month.
Biden's entire candidacy depended on his perceived electability, and, even more than his aggregate polling, his electability depended on his stable support from the majority of black supporters, a bellwether of success in Democratic presidential primaries. Without them, he's toast. Just as with his prior two presidential campaigns, Biden's third could end without him winning a state, let alone a delegate.
Barring some extraordinary developments, Biden simply has no path to the presidency. He's too damaged coming out of the first two races to be able to maintain his standing going into the later states. He is low on cash, and there's no reason to expect his poor finishes will help on that front. He's been out-earned from the left and outpaced from behind. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are surging at the vital moment that Biden has slowed to a halt. Meanwhile, Michael Bloomberg is waiting in the wings with a pitch to centrists and an unlimited bank account at his disposal. It's over, whether or not he's willing to admit it.
He never was that appealing of a candidate ... even when he was younger.
He is out of touch. He has spent too much time in the artificial reality of federal politics and has likely long since lost the perspective of an ordinary member of society.
Disinformation tactics are in play, folks!
This is interesting. RCP still has Biden on top and Fivethirtyeight has him in second. They have couple of weeks to stump down in SC. So, I think we will have a better picture of Biden's and Warren's fates on March 1st.
The latest polls I could find on SC and NV were this month, February.
Biden holds a 5 point lead over Sander in SC...At one point he had a 30 point lead.
In NV Biden trails Sanders by 6 points.
That is not very encouraging for Biden.
Those two states will spell the future of Bidens campaign.
Add that point drop to lower than expected voter turn out and Joe is toast. I think he may do respectably in SC (maybe 3rd) but not well in NV.
IMO, Biden is making a lot of the same mistakes Clinton did. He is not very inspiring and is taking minority groups for granted. In Clark County NV (Las Vegas) Hispanic/Native American/Asia and Pacific Islanders make up a huge percent of the population and he, like Clinton, ignored them.
Do the Dems have a candidate anymore that can reach those demographics? Many will capitulate to whomever becomes the nominee, but they must feel woefully under represented in the Party.
Sanders has made a huge inroad with NA/PI and Hispanics not sure about the Asian community. Currently, Bloomberg is also making headway in a couple of minority communities.
Hmm. Thanks Kavika! (Smile!)
Bloomberg and Steyer are both using Mr. Obama in some of their ads to drum up the Black votes................I really don't think they want to do that. May open some "how did he help us in eight years" wounds.............and feeds the narrative that Dems always, always pander until elected and **POOF** gone are the roses they promised.
Thank you so much for that informative comment, Wally.
I don't feel that way at all but what would I know being a minority and a prior union member, ILWU (longshoremen) you certainly can feel free to pretend you actually know something about us.
Cheers
I get the same impulse from Biden. And its dumbfounding me, because they both have had years to pack what works and unpack what does not work in campaigning. Thus, they both have given Trump the chance to appear like he is busy, if only at being an all-time jerk!
Thank you for that well thought out comment, Jim. I'm sure that from your unbias view that it's true.
Really? (Dryly.) And, who told you this?
Yeah, but Sanders isn't really a Democrat, he's a populist and I hope to whatever gods may be paying attention he isn't the nominee.
I would prefer a more moderate candidate as well.
I hope he wins the nomination because I think he will be the easiest for Trump to beat.
LOL, why am I not surprised by that Dean.
me too...
this is stil a center right nation, there is no way sanders can win.
I can't fully vet Sander's policies in my mind and I am not sure why not; he may forever be a mystery to me. I do get 'snippets' of the man and his policies, though. Don't know if I should wish him politcally well or not. However, if he pulls out the nomination—he gets my vote!
Don't listen to them Joe! Fight on until the bitter end.
I want a contested convention so bad, I can taste it.
This is a most stunning election cycle ever. So, so, much on the line and the players are in hazard positions. And worse, the media is once again all over the place with its questions while missing the true outrages taking place.
It is certainly full of surprises.
I can not politically kill Joe Biden off with Trump waiting for Joe to bob to the surface. Stay swimming forward, Joe! The race is under foot for real now!
That said, one does have to wonder just where Impeached President Donald Trump will opt to appear next in his role as "thunder stealer." We need Joe and others, oh the many others, to be alive in every sense of the word to overwhelm and outdo this scene-killer president! This is why, Mr. Bloomberg looks so interesting, in my opinion. He understands 'beast-mode.'
Not one of the Democratic candidates has the ability to draw the air out of a room like Trump. Trump knows showmanship if nothing else.
Bloomberg may have a shot; until people find out his you tube commercial talking points are all you get. Bloomberg has the luxury of not facing Democratic candidates attacking him right now. Things will change once he gets on the debate stage; and has to answer the same questions as the rest on how he plans on paying for all of his programs.
'Draw the air out of a room' is one way to put it. LOL!
This is just assessing political reality. Biden has lost his halo and must now compete on raw political terms. I do not see him recovering but he still has a chance.
Well, I just heard a new story that Biden is saying, 'No way in hell does he plan to lose this nomination' —or words to this effect.
Whether Joe Biden does lose this nomination or not, that kind of talk is the fire in the belly prescribed to get people interested and locked in. As for 'wonder-lips' Trump he is standing on the peripheral hurling disinformation in chunks and hurling political noise. We have to team up and win: Democratic Side stands for honor and I am honored to have a man like Mike Bloomberg within us!
Incidentally, I ended the above paragraph with Mike Bloomberg deliberately, because it is important to all of us who want a 'well-balanced' nation to get it together-to this end. Impeached President Donald Trump and his entire administration effort is a sickness to rule of law, and a nod to a free people giving over to what is happening in Putin's Russia, Duerte's Philippines, Erdogan's Turkey, and yes even Un's North Korea.
Our conservative movement is pushing to install conservative 'for life' in this country. Given that, four more years of a Trump presidency will see him released from statutes of limitations on his past civil violations possibly, and will give him four more years to warp and distort the third branch of government against liberals and free-thinking men and women. He will legally stifle and sat on any free-thinking ideas which are today possible. See the man behind the movement:see the movement within the man.
Democrats must win this election in a big way! Nothing else politically should matter!
And, showmanship is shit. Time to call it what it is. Showmanship is nothing if we don't buy a ticket to sat our butts in the seats!
Nobody in this country should be that desperate to be entertained, so as to give up their freedom to a lying, impeached, self-absorbed monster masquerading as our president. He is not real. Trump is a conservative delusion.
Don't all candidates plan on not losing?
And you say that to mean what? Maybe you should ask Biden what he means if you have a proper question. Or, you can call a reporter on Biden's beat!
You seemed to think it very important that Biden said that.
I was pointing out that all candidates are trying to win and don't plan on losing.
Was that really not clear to you from my post?
Research Robin Ficker. I find it hard to believe that he doesn't actually plan on losing every time he runs - but then, he's probably extremely delusional. I don't think anyone around here thinks of him as anything but a professional heckler; that reputation stuck.
"Politics" is nothing more than a "Show".
If it wasn't, this country wouldn't have the problems it does, every "friggin" election cycle.
What part of the context of Biden's comment is unclear to you in its usual meaning? It needed no further elaboration. Deal with that. If you have any further commentary about such a simple quote—do call and inquire of the Biden Campaign (and good luck with that!).
That is the politically smart thing to say. He of course must come across as 100% confident. He has to use that to boost the confidence of his supporters. But his expressed confidence does not reflect reality; Biden's words do not change the facts as they stand.
What has become too plain to ignore is that electing Joe Biden would not be a third term for Barrack Obama. Biden has not demonstrated commitment or ability to restore Obama's legacy and carry that legacy forward. Joe Biden has not demonstrated he can fight his own past; let alone take on Trump.
Democrats have made defeating Trump their number one priority to unify the party. Democrats haven't shown interest in unifying the party on the idea of restoring Obama's legacy as a political priority. There haven't been any sort of nostalgic reminders of what Obama accomplished to fire up the base. And the candidates have not been indicting Trump over how he has overturned Obama's legacy. And Democratic voters don't seem to be demanding a return to Obama's legacy, either. It's as if the Democratic Party has completely forgotten that Barack Obama was President.
Democrats are searching for a ruthless, nasty, dirty politician who will challenge Donald Trump in a cage match political spectacle. Democrats have fallen into the trap of fighting Trump on Trump's terms. Democrats are not offering an alternative to Trump; Democrats are trying to replace Trump with another Trump. What will Democrats do after beating Trump? Does anyone know?
Is it your hypothesis that the Ds are looking to Sanders to engage Trump on Trump's terms?
Sanders doesn't mince words; Sanders will go toe to toe with Trump. Hillary Clinton found out that it isn't easy to intimidate Bernie Sanders. Sanders has a proven record as a fighter. The party establishment is expressing angst over how to stop Sanders and his 'radical socialist' agenda without alienating Sanders' base of support. Sanders has adopted positions that are considered extreme by mainstream politics and Sanders fights for those positions. Sanders may well demonstrate his ability to fight when Michael Bloomberg is on the debate stage.
Democrats want a fighter this election; the unifying Democratic priority is to defeat Trump. If Sanders could stop the inevitable election of Clinton, as some mainstream Democrats claim, then Sanders can go toe to toe with Trump. According to Democrats' own political views, if Sanders could challenge the most qualified candidate for President then Sanders can certainly challenge the most unqualified President. Sanders has a track record as a fighter that the other candidates don't have.
Sanders has a political army of grassroots support. What do the other Democratic candidates have? Defeating Trump will require a political fight at the grassroots.
The counter to Right Wing populism is not Left Wing populism.
So is it your hypothesis that the Ds are looking to Sanders to engage Trump on Trump's terms?
They want a winner. Winning by engaging Trump in a battle on Trump's terms is not the only approach, and it is certainly not the best approach. I seriously doubt the D intelligentsia want Sanders as their warrior.
Left Wing populism is why Donald Trump won the Republican primaries.
Democrats' 'identity politics' has been all about institutional government ignoring the grievances of ordinary people. Left Wing populism has been the status quo of the Democratic Party. Democrats' charges of racism, sexism, and xenophobia are Left Wing populist politics. The idea of 'white privilege', BLM, and MeToo are all about populist political appeal. The whole idea of political correctness is to exert control over institutional authority disregarding and ignoring grievances of ordinary people.
Democrats' Left Wing populism has been about fighting the institutional authority of religion, cultural traditions, history, and the Constitution.
What Donald Trump has shown is that Right Wing populism is an effective counter to Left Wing populism. Democrats no longer hold a monopoly on populist politics.
The Democratic establishment is expressing angst over how to stop Sanders without alienating voters. The Democratic establishment has started a grassroots fight that they don't know how to control.
Simply defeating Trump won't change the nature of the grassroots political fight. No matter who wins the White House, the MAGA grassroots and Bernie's grassroots aren't going away. Alienating both those grassroots groups will only make things worse.
To me, the surprising aspect of the political climate is that Obama's legacy is being pretty much ignored. Biden seems to be the only candidate seriously defending the Obama legacy and promising to carry that legacy forward.
I totally agree.
biden can't stop running for president... LOL
the second he quits, his upcoming prosecution will not be "an attack on a political rival"
see biden run
run biden run.
and reading bidens ukraine activities into the congressional record multiple times with dem voters from coast to coast watching trumps impeachment and acquittal on tv had absolutely nothing to do with that. ( LOL )