What happened to winter? Jet stream science explains unseasonable warmth in U.S.
Category: News & Politics
Via: perrie-halpern • 4 years ago • 26 commentsBy: Denise Chow
Around the world and particularly across much of the United States, a question has emerged: What happened to winter?
In Japan, record low snowfall has forced ski resorts to close prematurely. In Finland, forests that would normally be stark and bare at this time of year appear lush after what was an "exceptionally" warm January . And in one county in Michigan , municipal workers who usually spend winter plowing snow have taken to trimming trees. The lack of snow in Russia led Moscow to bring in fake snow for its New Year festivities and pushed one lawmaker to accuse the United States of using a " climate weapon " against his country.
If the mild conditions in the U.S. persist through February, this could be the country’s warmest winter in recorded history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Though it may seem like another symptom of global warming, the warmer-than-usual conditions are more directly caused by an Arctic weather pattern that is trapping cold air in the polar region. Scientists are watching this system closely to try to understand whether this winter is an outlier or a preview of what could become more common for the Northern Hemisphere.
Karin Gleason, a climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, said this winter is on pace to edge out the 2015-16 season, which holds the record for warmest winter. At that time, the average temperature across the U.S. from December through February was 36.7 degrees Fahrenheit (2.6 degrees Celsius).
NOAA recently announced that last month was the fifth warmest January in the agency’s 126-year climate record. All 48 of the contiguous states experienced a warmer-than-usual month, with the average temperature more than 5 degrees above the 20th century average.
Still, the pattern can change quickly and its behavior can be difficult to predict.
"This is actually an area of active research because if we could forecast it, we could really enhance longer-term predictability of weather conditions," Serreze said. "If you could say in November that the coming winter is going to be preferentially in a positive phase, that would be valuable for aviation or cities planning snowplow budgets, for example."
Computer models are used to try to forecast shorter-term changes in the Arctic Oscillation. Carl Schreck, a meteorologist at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, said there are indications that the current positive phase could last for several more weeks.
"Some models are showing it well into March," he added.
This strong Arctic Oscillation also explains the dearth of extreme winter weather across much of the U.S.
"Storms tend to develop along the jet stream and are guided by it," Serreze said. "What we’re seeing is the polar front jet stream shifted north and that Arctic air is just trapped at high latitudes."
Scientists are studying whether climate change is affecting the Arctic Oscillation, but for now, any concrete links are tough to pin down, according to Serreze.
Studies have suggested that as global warming minimizes temperature differences between the Arctic and regions further south, the jet stream could become wavier than usual .
"We’re already seeing the Arctic warming at an outsize rate compared to the rest of the planet," he said. "If we’re changing the temperature gradient between higher and lower latitudes, the jet stream is going to respond to that."
And while scientists can’t draw conclusions based on one season or the climate patterns of one year, Serreze said this past winter demonstrates how conditions in the Arctic — a region especially sensitive to climate change — can have global implications.
"In other words, what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic," he said.
Thank You Canada !
The last time Americans said that was when Canada rescued American hostages that were held by the Iranians.
Great, now I have the "blame Canada" song stuck in my head. Lol
All I know is it's fucking cold this morning! It is -13 with a wind chill as low as -35. Tomorrow will be slightly worse. So Thanks Canada!
Native American weather report from Leech Lake MN. My cousin Luther Walks the Horse reporting.
BWAHAHAHAHA! "Betcha won't catch my ass out there today." - Hillarious!
That's how it is here today. Just got done shoveling thru 2 foot drifts so my Yorkie had a poop zone. Thinking i'll call the plow guy instead of snow blowing the driveway, to damn cold.
You must have gotten all that snow we were supposed to get yesterday. We barely got a dusting.
Not much snow but plenty of winds. 10 degrees not counting wind chill ATM. i'll pay the 15 dollars for a plow lol
We're suffering through another cold spell here in Ocala...
Current temp 77 with a high of 84...Burrrrrrrrr. Oh, and it's sunny as well...
I spoke to one of my other cousins that lives in Red Lake. The current temp is -19. They don't figure in the wind chill according to him that a sissy thing to do...LMAO
We considered the Twin Cities area to be Miami north when compared to Red Lake which is 250 north of the Cities and I was another 110 miles north of Red Lake in Warroad...LMAO
Summer in northern MN is a Tuesday afternoon in August, don't blink.
I get a kick out of the people in Florida, 50 degrees is hibernating weather...I've become one of them...
I'd pretty much have to this week. Both of us here have bronchitis/upper respiratory infections. It's been fun to see who can cough the loudest.
That sucks, get well. fortunately I've dodged any colds this year, only had the brown bottle flu once.
Best laugh I have had all day!
I feel ya. I live in Jacksonville and planted some vegetable seeds today cuz if February....or in other words...planting season in Florida.
Oh, yea...the allergies are kicking my wife's ass.
Thank you.
Yup the allergies can be a bit bothersome but -20 and 5 feet of snow can be brain-damaging.
We've been having a perfect winter. We got about 4 feet of snow in the last week with temperatures in the twenties.
Dean,
Every skier knows that snow is a whole different thing, especially when you can just fly it downhill.
Besides surfing and sunbathing our Florida dogs do some of this.