Despite crises, Trump polling is nearly right where Obama's was at the same moment in 2012

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  texan1211  •  7 months ago  •  26 comments

By:   Katherine Doyle (MSN)

Despite crises, Trump polling is nearly right where Obama's was at the same moment in 2012
President Trump's job approval rests just 2.5 points below that of former President Barack Obama's at the same point in their presidencies, which in 2012 was less than six months before Obama trounced his Republican opponent in the general election.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



President Trump's job approval rests just 2.5 points below that of former President Barack Obama's at the same point in their presidencies, which in 2012 was less than six months before Obama trounced his Republican opponent in the general election.

© Provided by Washington Examiner

It's a potentially hopeful sign for the president as he enters a tough reelection campaign against former Vice President Joe Biden amid a raging pandemic and a worsening economy.

On May 14, 2012, Obama's job approval rating hit 48%, with Trump on Thursday reaching 45.5%, according to the RealClearPolitics national average. Obama went on that year to defeat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points in the popular vote, 51.1% to 47.2%.

"I'm still convinced there is a shy Trump supporter, a hidden Trump vote, that voters who are unwilling to tell somebody on the telephone that they're supporting him are going to vote for him," pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies said. "I'm convinced that number is at least 2 to 3 points."

Trump's average disapprove numbers remain high, however, at 52%.

If Trump is in Obama's range as far as national job approval ratings, he is in a range where he can be reelected, said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. "The challenge is going to be, does Trump run a really good [reelection campaign]? How will his reelect compare to Obama's? Obama was able to destroy Romney's image."

Mackowiak pointed to voters who dislike either candidate. "The single most important thing to look at right now is that for people who disapproved of Trump and Hillary: They hid the numbers, but they went for Trump pretty decisively," he said. "The people that dislike Biden and Trump, they're going for Biden about 6 to 1. That's got to change. He certainly needs to raise Biden's negatives."

He added: "I think that'll happen as Biden gets out there. He'll make more mistakes."

Newhouse agreed that Biden needed to enter the frame to balance the race.

He said that Trump fares better with an opponent, but because of COVID, Biden is staying hidden. "The sooner it moves from a referendum to a choice between Trump and Biden, it'll be a tighter race."

Biden is running a "Rose Garden strategy," only the garden is in his basement. The strategy refers to a president who doesn't leave the White House to campaign and is usually reserved for incumbents "who feel pretty good about themselves."

Polling from 17 key states shared by the Trump campaign with surrogates on Tuesday showed Trump closing in on Biden. Trump's approval was up 9 points from three weeks earlier, now tied with Biden at 48%.

"Biden's folks like to look at national polls. And Trump likes to look at battleground state polls," Republican pollster Bradley Blakeman said.

"Democrats did the same thing with Hillary," he said, and likened Trump to "the old Aesop fable, 'The Tortoise and the Hare.'"

On a national level, Trump was always behind Hillary, Blakeman noted. "But what Trump understood was that it doesn't matter what the national polls say. It matters how you're doing in electoral vote counts in battleground states. And he was doing the math and understanding that he could lose the popular vote, which he did."

Confidence in Trump's ability to rebuild the economy polled higher among voters than the prospect of Biden doing so. He led the former vice president by 15 points.

Newhouse believes that the general election will be about the economy and the direction of the country come November. "Americans want to look through the front windshield," he said.

"Come election time, Americans are asking themselves, 'Am I better off today than I was four years ago?'" Blakeman said. Under the circumstances, "The answer is no. But the question I think this cycle is going to be, 'Do I trust the president to take us through this crisis to better days?'"

Three states stick out as crucial for Trump: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

"They're going to be hot spots," Blakeman said.

"The reality is Trump has a very narrow path to reelection, but it is a clear path. And it is basically the same map as last time," Mackowiak said.

"People want to talk about Georgia and Arizona. It's Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — those three alone," Mackowiak said.

He added: "It will depend a lot on where we are in the fall, in terms of the economy and with coronavirus, but I think whoever wins those three states is overwhelmingly likely to be the next president."

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Texan1211
1  seeder  Texan1211    7 months ago

Here is a little red, fresh meat for those inclined to believe polling.

 
 
 
It Is ME
2  It Is ME    7 months ago

"I'm still convinced there is a shy Trump supporter, a hidden Trump vote, that voters who are unwilling to tell somebody on the telephone that they're supporting him are going to vote for him," pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies said. "I'm convinced that number is at least 2 to 3 points."

I'm convinced there's way more than that. See what happened in the 2016 Election. SHOCK and AWE ! jrSmiley_42_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Greg Jones
2.1  Greg Jones  replied to  It Is ME @2    7 months ago

I don't think the Democrats realize how much they have damaged their brand. Almost all their efforts the last four years have focused on ousting Trump. They have failed...bigly

Why would rational, intelligent, and informed voters cast their lot with a bunch of morons who want to bankrupt the country...coming up with a cynical pandering ploy for votes with a liberal wish list of another three TRILLION dollars before the first four bills have even had time to work. And that would be on top of all the other giveaways they are promising the gullible.

Why would those voters elect a party who seemingly does not believe in fair play, presumption of innocence, due process, and the rule of law, their relentless pursuit of Trump and Kavanaugh being very obvious examples.

Why would these voters elect a party which advocates abortion and any age and stage of pregnancy?

Why would these voters elect a party which totally supports unrestricted immigration and welcomes those people who have no skills or financial means and who in many cases carry disease and pests. And whose numbers probably include many criminals of all sorts.

And why should these voters support a party that considers Russia as the worst nation on earth, while considering China to be our friend and ally.

I think the voters are smarter than the Dems are giving them credit for, and will not fall for the lies and hype

 

 
 
 
It Is ME
2.1.1  It Is ME  replied to  Greg Jones @2.1    7 months ago
I don't think the Democrats realize how much they have damaged their brand.

They've even put up "Mr. Moldy" to run on their Brand for President.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
2.2  Jasper2529  replied to  It Is ME @2    7 months ago
I'm convinced there's way more than that.

So am I. There are some good reasons:

  • Many Trump supporters aren't registered with a particular party, so they don't get called.
  • Many people simply don't answer their phones when caller ID doesn't provide an identifier they recognize.

But, perhaps the most important of all is that many Trump supporters have been verbally and physically assaulted by the off-the-rails TDS crowd. Therefore, they protect their safety and that of their families. 

 
 
 
Ender
2.2.1  Ender  replied to  Jasper2529 @2.2    7 months ago

I had read somewhere that a lot of these polls rely on landlines. Don't know if true or not but if true that is only a sampling of an ever decreasing demographic, mostly older folks.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.2.2  XDm9mm  replied to  Ender @2.2.1    7 months ago
I had read somewhere that a lot of these polls rely on landlines.

The use "blocks" of numbers.  X number from an 'area code', then X number from exchanges within those area codes.   The end device is immaterial.  It can be a cell number, old wall phone or as is common now "VoIP" (most users don't even realize the local phone companies are using VoIP to get them service.)

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.2.3  XDm9mm  replied to  Jasper2529 @2.2    7 months ago
But, perhaps the most important of all is that many

People like me just love to screw with any polling operation that calls me.  It's generally easy to figure out which side of the aisle they lean to by the wording of the questions.  Man, do I ever skew their numbers.   Hell, that's probably why Hillary polled so high!!

 
 
 
Ender
2.2.4  Ender  replied to  XDm9mm @2.2.2    7 months ago

I had to look that up and see what it was.  Haha

Makes sense for cell phones I guess.

I never answer any unknown number. If they don't leave a message, not going to bother.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.2.5  XDm9mm  replied to  Ender @2.2.4    7 months ago
I never answer any unknown number

I always answer.   I love to fuck with them as much and as long as possible.   Especially those Bangladesh "We're Microsoft tech support and your computer notified us it's got a virus!!"  I DO every once in awhile get some Chinese speaking bimbette rambling on and on about who knows what.   

I WILL admit that some are getting pretty good.  The computers they use look for key word responses.   Earlier, I used to say "You're a computer" and it would hang up.  Now when I say that, I actually get a response similar to "I'm working on behalf of a human who I will transfer you to."   

Every once in awhile, I actually have a breathing person call me, and I ask them for THEIR phone number so I can annoy the hell out of their life like they do mine.  Funny, I never got one to give it to me.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
2.2.6  Jasper2529  replied to  Ender @2.2.4    7 months ago
I never answer any unknown number. If they don't leave a message, not going to bother.

Same here, whether for our landline/VoIP or cell phones. Everyone who's important to us is entered in our phones' address books. If we recognize the name and number, we answer. Anyone else can leave a message, which then puts the ball in my court as to whether or not we return their calls - most times, they're hang-ups. I don't have time or interest in answering solicitation calls.

 
 
 
bugsy
2.3  bugsy  replied to  It Is ME @2    7 months ago

There are going to be far more Trump voters out there now that Biden said if you believe Tara Reid, then don't vote for him. I don't know how many times I heard leftists say they believe her, but in order to get rid of Trump, they have no choice but to vote Biden. I remember a feminist doing an op-ed in either the NYT or WaPo who basically said just that.

Probably alot of people on NT also feel the same way.

I'm curious if any of them would take Biden's advice, or just brush it off as just another crazy comment by a Alzheimers induced democrat.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
3  JohnRussell    7 months ago

Trump has personally endorsed many candidates since he took office. Almost all of those except the ones in the reddest states and districts have underperformed their last election or lost. 

That is a clear sign of Trump's underlying unpopularity, as is the results of the 2018 midterms. 

Trump is the only president in the history of polling (roughly since the end of WW2)  to never reach 50% approval in his first term. 

The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama was able to persuade some people who had previously been against him to be for him as his term unfolded. 

Trump shows no evidence of that, as he proceeds through scandal and lie after scandal and lie. If not for the willingness of his base supporters to suck up every bullshit line he speaks as the gospel he wouldnt have a prayer. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
3.1  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @3    7 months ago

If the Democrats had any values and tangible benefits to offer to the people, they would have a prayer and be in power.

Be prepared for four more years of Trump...and likely Republican control of the Senate and House.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
3.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Greg Jones @3.1    7 months ago
If the Democrats had any values

GM Greg....   you should have stopped right there.

 
 
 
evilgenius
3.1.2  evilgenius  replied to  Greg Jones @3.1    7 months ago
If the Democrats had any values and tangible benefits to offer to the people, they would...

If current Republicans had any tangible benefits to offer to the people not super rich, they wouldn't have to resort to underhanded sneaky tricks to shave percentage points off likely voters. If they had any values Trump would not be President.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
3.2  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @3    7 months ago
That is a clear sign of Trump's underlying unpopularity, as is the results of the 2018 midterms. 

Maybe you were unaware JR, but many of those seats that flipped in the 2018 midterms were of incumbents that retired and the people tried for a 'change'.  Many of those changes are now being felt and some, not all, but some will flip back.

Trump is the only president in the history of polling (roughly since the end of WW2)  to never reach 50% approval in his first term. 

Is there a point you want to make?  How many times have "polls" been right?  2016 ring a bell?

The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama was able to persuade some people who had previously been against him to be for him as his term unfolded. 

Actually the difference is that Obama was able to persuade some mindless lemmings that he actually cared about them as opposed to his 'legacy' and desire to "fundamentally transform America", never telling the people that to accomplish that goal, the original had to be destroyed.

Trump shows no evidence of that, as he proceeds through scandal and lie after scandal and lie. If not for the willingness of his base supporters to suck up every bullshit line he speaks as the gospel he wouldnt have a prayer. 

JR, the CORRECT way to state that is as follows:

Trump shows ample evidence that, he proceeds through scandals created by Democrat lies and lies essentially unscathed.  If not for the willingness of his base of supporters to fight and eviscerate every bullshit line the Trump haters spew as the gospel he wouldn't have a prayer of anyone ever knowing the truth.  It's a tough trail to cut, but Trump supporters are tough and will cut a trail through the lies and vitriol spewed by Trump haters on a daily basis.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
3.2.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  XDm9mm @3.2    7 months ago

jrSmiley_28_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Colour Me Free
3.3  Colour Me Free  replied to  JohnRussell @3    7 months ago
That is a clear sign of Trump's underlying unpopularity, as is the results of the 2018 midterms. 

Interesting ..  what is the relevance of the statement?  Obama (D)s lost 'bigly' in the 2010 midterms, yet was reelected…………………...

Barack Obama admits he needs 'to do a better job' after midterms defeat 
 
President concedes Republicans gave Democrats a 'shellacking' in midterms and says he remains willing to compromise 

sending a link in case anyone has forgotten what happened ……..

 
 
 
Dulay
4  Dulay    7 months ago

Since you and your fellow travelers believe that Obama sucked, all your saying is that Trump sucks just as much. 

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
4.1  Release The Kraken  replied to  Dulay @4    7 months ago

He didn't just suck big Mike, he ran the most corrupt spying campaign in history and violated the golden peaceful transition of power required to maintain a free society.

Don't worry you will eventually give up on defending that traitor soon enough.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.1  JohnRussell  replied to  Release The Kraken @4.1    7 months ago

lol

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.2  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.1    7 months ago
lol

Ergo, you must agree with "fish".

It's about time you gained a sense of reality.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.3  JohnRussell  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.2    7 months ago

lol

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
4.1.4  Release The Kraken  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.2    7 months ago

He likey the big mike....

 
 
 
bugsy
4.2  bugsy  replied to  Dulay @4    7 months ago
fellow travelers

[Deleted]

 
 
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