New forecast predicts 180,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by October
Category: News & Politics
Via: flynavy1 • 4 years ago • 50 commentsBy: Jonathan Allen, Peter Szekely Reuters
The average number of tests has risen 7.6% over the last seven days, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project, while the average number of new cases rose 30%.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
(Reuters) - The University of Washington on Wednesday forecast nearly 180,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by Oct. 1 as cases showed new signs of surging and the governors of three Northeast states ordered travelers from other parts of the country to quarantine upon arrival for 14 days.
The prediction by the school’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation includes a caveat that deaths from the virus could drop to 146,000 if 95% of Americans wore masks.
“There is no doubt that even as states open up, the United States is still grappling with a large epidemic on a course to increase beginning in late August and intensifying in September,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement.
The new forecast was issued just hours after the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut said they would require visitors from nine other states with higher rates of coronavirus infections to quarantine for two weeks on arrival.
Speaking at a joint news conference conducted by video, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said the tough new order was “the smart thing to do” after the United States recorded its second-greatest increase in COVID-19 cases since in early March.
“We have taken our people, the three of us from these three states, through hell and back, and the last thing we need …
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This is not looking good for the home team....
We as a country are way better than this.
ummmm... Maybe not. There are too many that refuse to acknowledge their Emperor is marching around naked.
Now he wants to defund CV testing sites.
Hold on....by later tonight, or early tomorrow, he will likely say, 1) "I was joking, 2) "I didn't say that, 3) "What I meant was...", etc. etc. etc.
He could try but by his own admission, he does not kid. It would just be one more lie from the toddler in chief.
Very true. But, his vacillating from truth to lie one minute to the next about what he says and/or what he meant, is a sign that his mind is slowly going. And it also means that he can't be trusted by what he says either. Which is really bad when dealing with our allies and enemies. They know he is mentally deranged and they can take advantage of it to their own favor. And Pence as his VP is not much better. All he cares about is his God, and anything else is of no interest to him.
We as a country are way better than this.
Well...some parts of the country.
yes, it is frustrating to see news story after news story showing people out at bars and other social gatherings without any protective covernings or social distancing. Like everybody else I would love to go out and resume normal life but that's just not possible right now. Until there is a vaccine I'm really stuck indoors for the most part as I do have a couple of the underlying issues that can make catching this virus much worse and I'm in a good place right now lifewise and in no hurry to move on to the next stage of existance (whatever that looks like, but I'm afraid due to my life choices it's gonna be warm.
)
I know other people look at this as an attempt to build up herd immunity in order to reduce and/or eliminate the virus. That's wonderful on paper but like myself there are a lot of people that suffer from underlying conditions that make catching this so much worse. As you cannot always tell if you are contagious, I do wish that everybody would wear masks and do their part for social distancing. But people being people, I guess my best hope is that either they find a miracle breakthru in vaccine testing and approval or the virus does mutate into something much less dangerous like SARS did 12 years ago.
The latter is the trend Italian doctors are seeing.
yep, that and the University of Pittsburg Medical Center reported the same news. Here's hoping it really works out that way. As I remember the old SARS virus mutated itself out of a nasty bug in about 10 months. That's why there was all the work on vaccine development and then it ended when the vaccine was no longer needed. They didn't even get into human trials then if I remember correctly.. so I sit here with fingers crossed and a brand new jar of jalapeno stuffed olives for my vodka. woo hoo!!!
There are currently 14 identified strains of Covid-19. According to Korber et al. (2020, Summary section) , " The mutation Spike [protein] D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions."
This particular viral protein mediates infection of cells and has been shown to be more infectious. Based on that finding, it's less likely the virus will mutate into a less dangerous form or the more infectious form will become the dominant form. That means greater infection rates and spread of the virus. It also makes wearing masks, social distancing, and proper handwashing all the more paramount.
Liver.... Lungs..... Pick a body part Snuffy
You ought to hear all the bottles in our neighborhood recycling on collection day.... Damn near need ear plugs.
Let's hope that happens.
But mutations can happen in many ways-- its also possible that a mutation could also make it even more resistant and more contagious
A a major mutation either way might not happen-- or might not happen for a l;ong time.
So now the best things to do are social distancing, wearing masks (and making that mandatory-- not just some wishy-washy "recommending" that)...and what's already happening:many major pharma companies are making finding a vaccine hi priority!
Yep, I've heard those stories. It's the same way up in Sun City which is a huge retirement city in Phoenix. But then it's almost always been that way, Sun City has more DUI's per capita than just about any other city I'll bet. Me, I still work every day so if I have 3 drinks in a week it's been a tough week. Maybe 1 or 2...
At least my hearing has been going downhill for years so the bottle tinkle on collection day won't bother me much...
Fully agree with you snuffy...... Wear a mask at the very least.
People need to start looking at wearing masks as one's patriotic duty
Not to mention also as a basic courtesy and responsibility to others.
It looks like basic courtesy and responsibility gets the finger from too many Gordy...
Wrap it in the flag, wrap it in the bible, whatever, but lets find something that gets people to wrap a mask around their faces.
Indeed it does, which is quite a negative commentary on society.
I would hope basic common sense would be enough. But I suppose that might be hoping for too much.
Good luck with that!
IMO the only thing that will work is to make wearing masks mandatory!!
(Where that's still not the law, many stores that have re-opened in some areas have signs upthat wearing a mask is mandatory for entrance-- I suppose various stores enforforce that to different degrees).
Even if most people decide to wear a masks-- it won't help much. If even 1 person doesn't wear a mask and goes out to crowded place, grocery stores, etc--- they could spread it to a few people who bring it home....the spread can be exponential!
Even then, there will be holdouts and opposition. Fortunately, some business require mandatory masks before allowing someone to patronize their establishment, which is a good thing.
Some actively refuse entrance unless someone is wearing a mask.
Which is exactly what we've seen when Covid first arrived here.
In Florida, which is experiencing record numbers of new cases a bar in Orlando was serving partons and not observing any of the social distancing requirements and the occupancy rules. They were inspected and their liquor license was suspended. That is the only thing that will get their attention.
Stupid stupid stupid
Good. Bare are inherently designed for socialization. But not taking any precautions is just plain irresponsible.
Good luck with making them mandatory as well.... I just happened to pick up this clip from the Palm Beach City Council after they made masks mandatory.
These are really stupid people....
WTF is wrong with these people? "Stupid" doesn't even begin to cover it. Downright delusional or insane might though. That's what happens when people react irrationally and emotionally rather than logically.
Even if it is mandatory, the selfish aholes who refuse won't abide. Last night we had a power failure here right at dinner time. I went to my mom and pop store to get a burrito as they had power and a microwave. As I sat outside the store and ate my dinner, I counted at least 10 going in without masks.
Snuffy, Sweden tried the ''herd immunity'' and it has been a disaster for them.
Like you, my age group and having asthma puts me in a very dangerous position if I should catch COVID19.
My gf's father is going through chemo. It's bad enough to carelessly harm myself, but being responsible for the potential death of another is too much.
Exactly, but some people don't seem to give a shit about it, it's all about them.
I hope he is doing well.
Of course a lot still isn't known about this virus. And I recently read some preliminary research that indicated that people who had the virus and had antiodies soon lapparently lost the antibodies (and/or the antobodies' potency waned fairly quickly).
Of course that was just one study...
Got a link by chance? I'm interested I checking that out, as I have not seen anything related to the duration of antibody immunity against Covid. Thanks.
I didn't save it. But I will look later. (I've been reading a tremendous amount re the virus lately,also watching a lot of TV news...sometimes its hard to remeber where I saw something).m
No worries. Don't trouble yourself. I can look around for it. Thanks anyway
It would be helpful if our leaders would all wear mask-- leading by example would send a strong message that its important! (Unfortunately, however, several of our leaders send the opposite message re: the importance of wearing masks-- so perhaps its no surprise that many people don't thinkthat wearing a mask is important).
turns out governors and mayors encouraging mass public protests in a pandemic lead to more coronavirus infections.
By putting politics over science, the public health officials who supported and encouraged these riots shot their own credibility and essentially ended the public's willingness to quarantine. Why should Joe sixpack inconvenience himself when his Governor is participating in mass protests?
The media, who encouraged these protests will airbrush them form history, but people remember.
A politician's credibility is irrelevant. It's the science itself that is credible and recommendations is (or should be) based on the science.
Because Joe can still potentially infect others and spread the virus. Just because politicians are being stupid doesn't mean the general public has to follow suit.
Well when scientists are telling people to protest, that message gets lost.
I've only seen politicians and the general public do that.
"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health"
Over 1,200 signatures before the authors closed it for publication.
Interesting. It sounds more like an opinion from a fringe group, as neither the CDC or medical community pushes for means which might increase infection. Regardless, the group is focusing on the social justice aspect of the protests, with Covid being a secondary concern. They're basically saying the structure which supports or promotes racism is a greater concern and vector for Covid spread. So basically, protesting will help eliminate a larger threat. But scientists and medical experts in general have consistently maintained the importance of masks and social distancing as a means to help reduce the spread and rate of infection of Covid.
And if what you say is true Sean, then given all of the protests, New York and Minnisota should be registering spikes in infection rates, and they are not. They are stable or dropping.
Using that logic, the next probable cause in states where infection rates are climbin is that they didn't really lock down and follow the CDC guidelines for reopening based on infection rate data.
That's an important point! In fact I was going to post that a few days ago!
Recently New York had the #1 lowest rate of new infections in the entire country!
And from all the coverage I've seen, the state was one the ones that had the most demonstrations!
(its not surprising that NY State had the most pro-BLM demonstrations as its one of the most liberal states in the country).
rue Sean, then given all of the protests, New York and Minnisota should be registering spikes in infection rates, and they are not
But the riots were nationwide, not specific to two cities. Take a look at the big picture and the result is clear, the infection rates spiked after the protests.
ext probable cause in states where infection rates are climbin is that they didn't really lock down and follow the CDC gui
But those states opened in April or early May and their infection rates didn't spike until after the protests. While California, which didn't open, saw a massive spike after seeing protests across the state.
But the riots were nationwide, not specific to two cities.
You're purposely painting with broad strokes to push a narrative Sean.
Two states (NY & MN) that had the largest protests, and are still protesting have DECLINING infection rates while following the CDC guidelines for opening their states. Toss in Illinois for good measure there too. Florida, Texas, and Arizona didn't have nearly the protest levels of those other three states, but did ignore the CDC guidelines in opening their states.
Just be honest in looking into root cause. To do otherwise is beneath you.
There is no way Minnesota had close to the largest protests in the nation. Texas, for one, had massive protests in all of their large cities. So did California. You are mistaking the Extent of press coverage As a reflection of crowd sizes.
Explain NY and Chicago then.... Still having huge protests, and both are still seeing drops in their Covid infection rates.
No Sean.... It was how the states opened up, or more importantly... how people and the local government didn't take protecting themselves seriously.
As do politicians who encourage packed indoor rallies...and worse yet those who have those rallies but don't make mask wearing mandatory for attendies.
They don't even care that their own staff members at the rally have proven positive.
And the bus they get thrown under doesn't care either.
There are plenty more where they came from, so why care about those who get canned. They should have taken care of themselves no matter what Trump says. Right?