New forecast predicts 180,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by October

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  flynavy1  •  2 weeks ago  •  50 comments

By:   Jonathan Allen, Peter Szekely Reuters

New forecast predicts 180,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by October
The average number of tests has risen 7.6% over the last seven days, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project, while the average number of new cases rose 30%.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



(Reuters) - The University of Washington on Wednesday forecast nearly 180,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by Oct. 1 as cases showed new signs of surging and the governors of three Northeast states ordered travelers from other parts of the country to quarantine upon arrival for 14 days. 
The prediction by the school’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation includes a caveat that deaths from the virus could drop to 146,000 if 95% of Americans wore masks.
“There is no doubt that even as states open up, the United States is still grappling with a large epidemic on a course to increase beginning in late August and intensifying in September,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement.
The new forecast was issued just hours after the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut said they would require visitors from nine other states with higher rates of coronavirus infections to quarantine for two weeks on arrival. 
Speaking at a joint news conference conducted by video, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said the tough new order was “the smart thing to do” after the United States recorded its second-greatest increase in COVID-19 cases since in early March.
“We have taken our people, the three of us from these three states, through hell and back, and the last thing we need

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FLYNAVY1
1  seeder  FLYNAVY1    2 weeks ago

This is not looking good for the home team....

We as a country are way better than this.

 
 
 
evilgenius
1.1  evilgenius  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1    2 weeks ago
We as a country are way better than this.

ummmm... Maybe not. There are too many that refuse to acknowledge their Emperor is marching around naked.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
1.1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  evilgenius @1.1    2 weeks ago

Now he wants to defund CV testing sites.

 
 
 
Raven Wing
1.1.2  Raven Wing  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1.1    2 weeks ago
Now he wants to defund CV testing sites

Hold on....by later tonight, or early tomorrow, he will likely say, 1) "I was joking, 2) "I didn't say that, 3) "What I meant was...", etc. etc. etc.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
1.1.3  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Raven Wing @1.1.2    2 weeks ago

He could try but by his own admission, he does not kid.  It would just be one more lie from the toddler in chief.

 
 
 
Raven Wing
1.1.4  Raven Wing  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1.3    2 weeks ago
It would just be one more lie from the toddler in chief.

Very true. But, his vacillating from truth to lie one minute to the next about what he says and/or what he meant, is a sign that his mind is slowly going. And it also means that he can't be trusted by what he says either. Which is really bad when dealing with our allies and enemies. They know he is mentally deranged and they can take advantage of it to their own favor. And Pence as his VP is not much better. All he cares about is his God, and anything else is of no interest to him.

 
 
 
Krishna
1.2  Krishna  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @1    2 weeks ago

We as a country are way better than this.

Well...some parts of the country.

 
 
 
Snuffy
2  Snuffy    2 weeks ago

yes, it is frustrating to see news story after news story showing people out at bars and other social gatherings without any protective covernings or social distancing.  Like everybody else I would love to go out and resume normal life but that's just not possible right now.  Until there is a vaccine I'm really stuck indoors for the most part as I do have a couple of the underlying issues that can make catching this virus much worse and I'm in a good place right now lifewise and in no hurry to move on to the next stage of existance (whatever that looks like, but I'm afraid due to my life choices it's gonna be warm.   jrSmiley_18_smiley_image.gif   )

I know other people look at this as an attempt to build up herd immunity in order to reduce and/or eliminate the virus. That's wonderful on paper but like myself there are a lot of people that suffer from underlying conditions that make catching this so much worse. As you cannot always tell if you are contagious, I do wish that everybody would wear masks and do their part for social distancing. But people being people,  I guess my best hope is that either they find a miracle breakthru in vaccine testing and approval or the virus does mutate into something much less dangerous like SARS did 12 years ago. 

 
 
 
Heartland American
2.1  Heartland American  replied to  Snuffy @2    2 weeks ago

The latter is the trend Italian doctors are seeing.  

 
 
 
Snuffy
2.1.1  Snuffy  replied to  Heartland American @2.1    2 weeks ago

yep, that and the University of Pittsburg Medical Center reported the same news.  Here's hoping it really works out that way.  As I remember the old SARS virus mutated itself out of a nasty bug in about 10 months.  That's why there was all the work on vaccine development and then it ended when the vaccine was no longer needed.  They didn't even get into human trials then if I remember correctly..   so I sit here with fingers crossed and a brand new jar of jalapeno stuffed olives for my vodka.  woo hoo!!!

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.1.2  Gordy327  replied to  Snuffy @2.1.1    2 weeks ago

There are currently 14 identified strains of Covid-19. According to Korber et al. (2020, Summary section) , " The mutation Spike [protein] D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions."

This particular viral protein mediates infection of cells and has been shown to be more infectious. Based on that finding, it's less likely the virus will mutate into a less dangerous form or the more infectious form will become the dominant form. That means greater infection rates and spread of the virus. It also makes wearing masks, social distancing, and proper handwashing all the more paramount.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
2.1.3  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Snuffy @2.1.1    2 weeks ago

Liver.... Lungs..... Pick a body part Snuffy

You ought to hear all the bottles in our neighborhood recycling on collection day....  Damn near need ear plugs.

 
 
 
Krishna
2.1.4  Krishna  replied to  Snuffy @2.1.1    2 weeks ago
 As I remember the old SARS virus mutated itself out of a nasty bug in about 10 months.  

Let's hope that happens.

But mutations can happen in many ways-- its also possible that a mutation could also make it even more resistant and more contagious

A a major mutation either way might not happen-- or might not happen for a l;ong time.

So now the best things to do are social distancing, wearing masks (and making that mandatory-- not just some wishy-washy "recommending" that)...and what's already happening:many major pharma companies are making finding a vaccine hi priority!

 
 
 
Snuffy
2.1.5  Snuffy  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @2.1.3    2 weeks ago

Yep, I've heard those stories.  It's the same way up in Sun City which is a huge retirement city in Phoenix. But then it's almost always been that way,  Sun City has more DUI's per capita than just about any other city I'll bet.  Me,  I still work every day so if I have 3 drinks in a week it's been a tough week.  Maybe 1 or 2... 

At least my hearing has been going downhill for years so the bottle tinkle on collection day won't bother me much... 

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
2.2  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Snuffy @2    2 weeks ago

Fully agree with you snuffy...... Wear a mask at the very least. 

People need to start looking at wearing masks as one's patriotic duty  

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.2.1  Gordy327  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @2.2    2 weeks ago
People need to start looking at wearing masks as one's patriotic duty 

Not to mention also as a basic courtesy and responsibility to others.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
2.2.2  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Gordy327 @2.2.1    2 weeks ago

It looks like basic courtesy and responsibility gets the finger from too many Gordy... 

Wrap it in the flag, wrap it in the bible, whatever, but lets find something that gets people to wrap a mask around their faces. 

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.2.3  Gordy327  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @2.2.2    2 weeks ago
It looks like basic courtesy and responsibility gets the finger from too many Gordy... 

Indeed it does, which is quite a negative commentary on society.

but lets find something that gets people to wrap a mask around their faces. 

I would hope basic common sense would be enough. But I suppose that might be hoping for too much.

 
 
 
Krishna
2.2.4  Krishna  replied to  Gordy327 @2.2.1    2 weeks ago
People need to start looking at wearing masks as one's patriotic duty 
Not to mention also as a basic courtesy and responsibility to others.

Good luck with that!

IMO the only thing that will work is to make wearing masks mandatory!!

(Where that's still not the law, many stores that have re-opened in some areas have signs upthat wearing a mask is mandatory for entrance-- I suppose various stores enforforce that to different degrees).

 
 
 
Krishna
2.2.5  Krishna  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @2.2.2    2 weeks ago
It looks like basic courtesy and responsibility gets the finger from too many Gordy... 

Even if most people decide to wear a masks-- it won't help much. If even 1 person doesn't wear a mask and goes out to crowded place, grocery stores, etc--- they could spread it to a few people who bring it home....the spread can be exponential!

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.2.6  Gordy327  replied to  Krishna @2.2.4    2 weeks ago
IMO the only thing that will work is to make wearing masks mandatory!!

Even then, there will be holdouts and opposition. Fortunately, some business require mandatory masks before allowing someone to patronize their establishment, which is a good thing.

many stores that have re-opened in some areas have signs upthat wearing a mask is mandatory for entrance-- I suppose various stores enforforce that to different degrees)

Some actively refuse entrance unless someone is wearing a mask. 

.the spread can be exponential!

Which is exactly what we've seen when Covid first arrived here.

 
 
 
Kavika
2.2.7  Kavika   replied to  Gordy327 @2.2.6    2 weeks ago

In Florida, which is experiencing record numbers of new cases a bar in Orlando was serving partons and not observing any of the social distancing requirements and the occupancy rules. They were inspected and their liquor license was suspended. That is the only thing that will get their attention.  

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.2.8  Gordy327  replied to  Kavika @2.2.7    2 weeks ago
a bar in Orlando was serving partons and not observing any of the social distancing requirements and the occupancy rules.

Stupid stupid stupid jrSmiley_78_smiley_image.gif

They were inspected and their liquor license was suspended. That is the only thing that will get their attention.  

Good. Bare are inherently designed for socialization. But not taking any precautions is just plain irresponsible.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
2.2.9  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Krishna @2.2.4    2 weeks ago

Good luck with making them mandatory as well.... I just happened to pick up this clip from the Palm Beach City Council after they made masks mandatory.

These are really stupid people....

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/06/24/mask-mandate-florida-anger-erupts-coronavirus-vpx.cnn

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.2.10  Gordy327  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @2.2.9    2 weeks ago
These are really stupid people...

WTF is wrong with these people? "Stupid" doesn't even begin to cover it. Downright delusional or insane might though. That's what happens when people react irrationally and emotionally rather than logically.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
2.2.11  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Krishna @2.2.4    2 weeks ago

Even if it is mandatory, the selfish aholes who refuse won't abide.   Last night we had a power failure here right at dinner time.  I went to my mom and pop store to get a burrito as they had power and a microwave.  As I sat outside the store and ate my dinner, I counted at least 10 going in without masks.

 
 
 
Kavika
2.3  Kavika   replied to  Snuffy @2    2 weeks ago

Snuffy, Sweden tried the ''herd immunity'' and it has been a disaster for them. 

Like you, my age group and having asthma puts me in a very dangerous position if I should catch COVID19.

 
 
 
evilgenius
2.3.1  evilgenius  replied to  Kavika @2.3    2 weeks ago

My gf's father is going through chemo. It's bad enough to carelessly harm myself, but being responsible for the potential death of another is too much.

 
 
 
Kavika
2.3.2  Kavika   replied to  evilgenius @2.3.1    2 weeks ago
It's bad enough to carelessly harm myself, but being responsible for the potential death of another is too much.

Exactly, but some people don't seem to give a shit about it, it's all about them.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
2.3.3  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  evilgenius @2.3.1    2 weeks ago

I hope he is doing well.

 
 
 
Krishna
2.4  Krishna  replied to  Snuffy @2    2 weeks ago
I know other people look at this as an attempt to build up herd immunity in order to reduce and/or eliminate the virus.

Of course a lot still isn't known about this virus. And I recently read some preliminary research that indicated that people who had the virus and had antiodies soon lapparently lost the antibodies (and/or the antobodies' potency waned fairly quickly).

Of course that was just one study...

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.4.1  Gordy327  replied to  Krishna @2.4    2 weeks ago
Of course that was just one study

Got a link by chance? I'm interested I checking that out, as I have not seen anything related to the duration of antibody immunity against Covid. Thanks.

 
 
 
Krishna
2.4.2  Krishna  replied to  Gordy327 @2.4.1    2 weeks ago
Got a link by chance?

I didn't save it. But I will look later. (I've been reading a tremendous amount re the virus lately,also watching a lot of TV news...sometimes its hard to remeber where I saw something).m

 
 
 
Gordy327
2.4.3  Gordy327  replied to  Krishna @2.4.2    2 weeks ago
I didn't save it. But I will look later.

No worries. Don't trouble yourself. I can look around for it. Thanks anyway

 
 
 
Krishna
2.5  Krishna  replied to  Snuffy @2    2 weeks ago
As you cannot always tell if you are contagious, I do wish that everybody would wear masks and do their part for social distancing.

It would be helpful if our leaders would all wear mask-- leading by example would send a strong message that its important! (Unfortunately, however, several of our leaders send the opposite message re: the importance of wearing masks-- so perhaps its no surprise that many people don't thinkthat wearing a mask is important).

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
3  Sean Treacy    2 weeks ago

turns out governors and mayors encouraging mass public protests in a pandemic lead to more coronavirus infections.

By putting politics over science, the public health officials who supported and  encouraged these riots shot their own credibility and essentially ended the public's willingness to quarantine.  Why should Joe sixpack inconvenience  himself when his Governor is participating in mass protests?  

The media, who encouraged these protests  will airbrush them form history, but people remember.

 
 
 
Gordy327
3.1  Gordy327  replied to  Sean Treacy @3    2 weeks ago
By putting politics over science, the public health officials who supported and  encouraged these riots shot their own credibility and essentially ended the public's willingness to quarantine.

A politician's credibility is irrelevant. It's the science itself that is credible and recommendations is (or should be) based on the science. 

Why should Joe sixpack inconvenience  himself when his Governor is participating in mass protests?  

Because Joe can still potentially infect others and spread the virus. Just because politicians are being stupid doesn't mean the general public has to follow suit.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
3.1.1  Sean Treacy  replied to  Gordy327 @3.1    2 weeks ago
It's the science itself that is credible and recommendations is (or should be) based on the science. 

Well when scientists are telling people to protest, that message gets lost.

 
 
 
Gordy327
3.1.2  Gordy327  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.1.1    2 weeks ago
Well when scientists are telling people to protest,

I've only seen politicians and the general public do that.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
3.1.3  Sean Treacy  replied to  Gordy327 @3.1.2    2 weeks ago

"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health"

Over 1,200 signatures before the authors closed it for publication. 

https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/protests-coronavirus-pandemic-public-health-racism.html

 
 
 
Gordy327
3.1.4  Gordy327  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.1.3    one week ago

Interesting. It sounds more like an opinion from a fringe group, as neither the CDC or medical community pushes for means which might increase infection. Regardless, the group is focusing on the social justice aspect of the protests, with Covid being a secondary concern. They're basically saying the structure which supports or promotes racism is a greater concern and vector for Covid spread. So basically, protesting will help eliminate a larger threat. But scientists and medical experts in general have consistently maintained the importance of masks and social distancing as a means to help reduce the spread and rate of infection of Covid.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3.2  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Sean Treacy @3    2 weeks ago

And if what you say is true Sean, then given all of the protests, New York and Minnisota should be registering spikes in infection rates, and they are not. They are stable or dropping.

Using that logic, the next probable cause in states where infection rates are climbin is that they didn't really lock down and follow the CDC guidelines for reopening based on infection rate data.

 
 
 
Krishna
3.2.1  Krishna  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3.2    2 weeks ago
And if what you say is true Sean, then given all of the protests, New York and Minnisota should be registering spikes in infection rates, and they are not. They are stable or dropping.

That's an important point! In fact I was going to post that a few days ago!

Recently New York had the #1 lowest rate of new infections in the entire country!

And from all the coverage I've seen, the state was one the ones that had the most demonstrations!

(its not surprising that NY State had the most pro-BLM demonstrations as its one of the most liberal states in the country).

 

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
3.2.2  Sean Treacy  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3.2    2 weeks ago

rue Sean, then given all of the protests, New York and Minnisota should be registering spikes in infection rates, and they are not

But the riots were nationwide, not specific to two cities. Take a look at the big picture and the result is clear, the infection rates spiked after the protests. 

ext probable cause in states where infection rates are climbin is that they didn't really lock down and follow the CDC gui

But those states opened in April or early May  and their infection rates didn't spike until after the protests. While California, which didn't open, saw a massive spike after seeing protests across the state. 

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3.2.3  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.2.2    2 weeks ago

But the riots were nationwide, not specific to two cities.

You're purposely painting with broad strokes to push a narrative Sean.

Two states (NY & MN) that had the largest protests, and are still protesting have DECLINING infection rates while following the CDC guidelines for opening their states.  Toss in Illinois for good measure there too.  Florida, Texas, and Arizona didn't have nearly the protest levels of those other three states, but did ignore the CDC guidelines in opening their states. 

Just be honest in looking into root cause.  To do otherwise is beneath you.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
3.2.4  Sean Treacy  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3.2.3    2 weeks ago

There is no way Minnesota had close to the largest protests in the nation.  Texas, for one,  had massive protests in all of their large cities. So did California. You are mistaking the Extent of press coverage  As a reflection of crowd sizes. 

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3.2.5  seeder  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.2.4    2 weeks ago

Explain NY and Chicago then.... Still having huge protests, and both are still seeing drops in their Covid infection rates.

No Sean.... It was how the states opened up, or more importantly... how people and the local government didn't take protecting themselves seriously.

 
 
 
Krishna
3.3  Krishna  replied to  Sean Treacy @3    2 weeks ago
turns out governors and mayors encouraging mass public protests in a pandemic lead to more coronavirus infections.

As do politicians who encourage packed indoor rallies...and worse yet those who have those rallies but don't make mask wearing mandatory for attendies. jrSmiley_5_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
3.3.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Krishna @3.3    2 weeks ago

They don't even care that their own staff members at the rally have proven positive.

 
 
 
Raven Wing
3.3.2  Raven Wing  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @3.3.1    2 weeks ago
They don't even care that their own staff members at the rally have proven positive.

And the bus they get thrown under doesn't care either. 

There are plenty more where they came from, so why care about those who get canned. They should have taken care of themselves no matter what Trump says. Right?

 
 
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