Key model predicts 400,000 coronavirus deaths in US by January
Category: News & Politics
Via: john-russell • 4 years ago • 52 commentsBy: J. Edward Moreno 2 days ago (MSN)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Key model predicts 400,000 coronavirus deaths in US by January
A key forecasting model often cited by experts and used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 410,451 by Jan. 1.
The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington posted an update Friday predicting an additional 224,000 Americans will die by the beginning of next year.
The model says that as many as 122,000 of those deaths could be avoided with safety measures, including near-universal mask use, but it warns that easing restrictions could cause the death toll to be more than 620,000.
"We all must learn from those leaders of nations where the virus has been contained, or where second waves of infections have occurred, and where swift action has been taken to prevent loss of life," IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement.
Murray warned about governments pursuing herd immunity as a way to expedite the reopening economies.
"This first global forecast represents an opportunity to underscore the problem with herd immunity, which, essentially, ignores science and ethics, and allows millions of avoidable deaths," Murray said. "It is, quite simply, reprehensible."
The IHME model is more aggressive in its predictions than some other models. Their update comes just one day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established a new forecast predicting 211,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by Sept. 26.
Tags
Who is online
473 visitors
In other words the next 4 months will be worse than the previous six.
During World War 2 Americans accepted the need to ration gasoline, automobile tires, and even automobile sales. Typewriters, gasoline, bicycles, shoes, rubber footwear, silk, nylon, fuel oil, and stoves and meat, lard, shortening and food oils, cheese, butter, margarine, processed foods (canned, bottled, and frozen), dried fruits, canned milk, firewood and coal, jams, jellies, and fruit butter were all rationed at some point during the war.
When the virus began the wearing of masks should have been promoted as a patriotic duty. I dont think we are as truly patriotic as the WW2 Americans were, but it might have worked if promoted heavily. Instead the medical experts said the public didnt need to wear masks, and the president* was more than happy to assume masks were not needed. This seems to me to have been the biggest mistake in the entire tragedy. We need now to have every state mandate masks for everyone who is outside their homes and within 6 ft of other people.
We need to try and re-instill patriotism . When the vaccine comes and is given to people the mask order can be removed.
Shit, the ONLY reason the death tolls are as low as they are is because the majority of Americans didn't listen to Trump and instead listened to people like Dr. Fauci. Despite all Trump's bullshit businesses, corporations, and state governments around the country imposed lockdowns, required people to wear masks, and have gone on massive disinfecting campaigns (and no not injection or ingestion). The executive branch has been almost completely ignored during this whole thing, or if anyone did listen they went and did the opposite.
My state's numbers are finally coming down, and my daughter's school may finally reopen in the next few weeks. The reason for that isn't because fuck head lead the way, it is because everyone around here collectively said "he is full of shit, we will listen to the CDC and other public health experts." I was at the grocery store yesterday and only saw 2 assholes not wearing masks, 99.9% of the people there had a mask, even small children.
America is starting to show signs of progress during this pandemic, but in spite of the executive branch, not because of it.
simple question. If Trump had imposed a nationwide lockdown, ordering businesses and schools to close, mandating people wear masks in public and all the other methods you talk about, how many states would have filed suit against the President while stating he was exceeding his authority? Even Biden backed down on his earlier statement that if elected he would mandate wearing face masks across the country and said that the president could not impose such a mandate due to the constitutional limitations of the Office of the President.
While I wish the administration had provided a clearer more forceful list to states of what was recommended, had President Trump attempted any of those actions he would have spent more time in court and wasted more resources.
and who would enforce a federal mandate on masks?
at least a few states would decline to enforce federal law, being a strict federal task.
Trump screwed the pooch when he told us, repeatedly, that there would be no crisis. After he had indicated that he did not think the pandemic was a problem, there was no chance of getting the near-unanimous popular support that is needed for success.
Trump fucked this up. No one else.
Back to the dawn of humanity, less educated humans have needed simple answers for a complex problems. Witches caused the cow to die. A failure to sacrifice the right child caused the crops to fail. Orange man bad. Simple answers for simple minds that crave the comforting illusion that all can be controlled.Since corona virus is scary, it makes people feel better to believe that it can be stopped, if only the witch, or "orange man" would use his powers.
There is no cure for corona virus. We know now the US was blasted with infections in February. Once New York became the hottest infection spot in the world, the cat was out of the bag, nothing was going to stop how this played out. The only real way to slow it once it has a toehold is when populations reach limited immunity, slowing it's ability to move to new hosts. The only way to "stop" the virus is to isolate infected regions. The US is not an island, who have been able to fare better by limiting access points. We are 50 interconnected countries with open borders exporting the virus back and forth between themselves. . The only the outbreak in the US could have been "stopped" would have been to encircle NY and NJ at the beginning of March like China did Wuhan and not lot anyone out until the virus had run it's course. That would have left smaller outbreaks in the rest of the country that might been able to isolate.
But that of course, was legally and politically impossible. Certainly no democrat suggested it. Hell, Joe Biden was holding rallies after Trump stopped in March. States that have done everything Trump's critics claim he should have done, Illinois and California, are still have the highest case counts, while states that have done relatively little are doing better. Luck, as any epidemiologist will tell you luck matters and the US has been unlucky, being hit hard early and not having the geographic advantages of island countries. .
Trump fucked up. We have almost 200 000 dead.
Got it. You can't discuss the question I asked in 1.1.1, all you want to do is hate on Trump.
"Discuss"?
With you?
No thank you.
Aside from being pure speculation, that might depend on how rational and convincing an argument Trump can make for the necessity of a lockdown in states. Individual states might have been willing to work with Trump on the issue. But given his subpar oration skills, I doubt he would have been able to make any convincing argument. And the dismal way he handled the crisis only reinforces that.
You are right, Trump is not a great public speaker. But that's not the point.
The President does not have the constitutional authority to mandate face mask use in public for all people across the US. Hell, even Biden backed down on his early statement of 'If elected, day 1 will be a national mandate for everybody to wear masks'. Biden correctly stated when he backed down that the President does not have that type of authority.
Apparently, you missed the point. If Trump were a great public speaker, he wouldn't have to mandate anything. He could get the states t and people to understand and accept why mandating masks would be to their benefit. He could even unify people in being proactive in adopting safety measures without the need for mandates at all.
I agree with Biden's position, as it is just common sense right now to wear masks. It boggles the mind how people flip out over such a small thing. But I digress. The President can issue a mask mandate, but only with certain conditions and Congressional support. But that would limit the effectiveness of wearing masks, assuming the goal to to get all people nationwide to wear masks. Issuing a mandate requiring all people in all states to wear masks is an overreach of power, especially if it's for a long term duration. But as I said, a more eloquent (or effective) leader could, in theory, convince the states and individuals of the necessity of wearing masks and even encourage them to do so n their own.
No, I see your point. You want to shift the blame back on to Trump while ignoring anything that takes away from that. You are ignoring a segment of the left that refuses anything that Trump says or wants as wrong. Hell, Trump could cure cancer and that group would bitch about him not also curing male pattern baldness. There is a group of people that regardless of what is said they will be against it just because he's Trump. You are ignoring that piece which must be included in the discussion because of the world we live in.
As you said, it's just common sense to me also that we should be wearing masks but some people will flip out over this. The president cannot order a mask mandate, that's the rub. The office does not have the constitutional authority to do so. You are correct in that were he a better public speaker he might have convinced more people to wear them, but President Obama was a great public speaker and he couldn't convince more than half the people to do what he wanted. Possibly back in the day JFK could have convinced people to wear masks in public but I believe the country is so split politically now that there is no way a president could get more than half the country to follow suit. And if only half are wearing masks then it's not enough to make a huge difference in the spread.
Clearly you do not.
No, I explained how he could have addressed the issue with the states.
Now you're inventing things. I didn't bring up a left vs right debate.
I wasn't discussing that at all. You asked a question and I simply answered. Now you're trying to make this more than it is.
That is not entirely accurate. He can make such an order. But there are provisions to doing so which, while skirting the limits of his authority, can be accommodated.
It would have also helped if people were smarter and more rational too.
Strawman.
That says something about the leadership and partisanship.
Every little bit helps. It would help slow the spread. To what degree though is a matter of conjecture.
I hope that the studies are wrong, but they have been correct and even a little under the actual deaths to date.
I don't see this virus being contained now or in the future. The administration's leadership on this has been abysmal and the number of people that refuse to follow something as simple as wearing a mask or social distancing will continue to spread the virus and the deaths will continue on unabated.
Google is now showing 192 000 deaths
As long as a whole bunch of selfish aholes refuse to do the simplest of self protection measures, the death rate will rise.
And that really is what it is. Not wearing a mask or keeping your distance isn't exercising "freedom" or displaying your "patriotism", it is just you saying "hey everyone, I am a fucking asshole, I don't care if my actions hurt you and yours, it is all about me. This is the PRICK show!!!!"
America is number 1! Trump kept his promise, we have more pandemic infections and deaths than anyone and the numbers aren't even close! 4 more years!
More unadulterated bullshit. The fear mongering changes every day.
Which part do you consider bullshit? The current 190,000+ deaths, or the fact that masks save lives?
I consider his post BS. Does that count?
And the judges say.........Yes, we will accept that answer!
Was he trying to explain the Trump admins response? I am confused because it seems like he is trying to make fun of someone, but by giving an accurate description of his man?
Another example of those that weren't paying attention in 8th grade health class......
Trump does surely love the uneducated, because they love him back....
Actually that's pretty accurate.
The states were left to basically figure it out themselves.
Early effective Federal leadership would have been helpful.
It might have made all the difference.
Could have saved 175000 lives, but what does Trump give a shit, they are losers anyhow.
please prove that.
Look at every other advanced nation on the planet, even fucking China where the damn thing originated.
Our "response" has been absolute dog shit from day 1 and really showed Trump's lack of ability. It was always there, he was fortunate enough to just ride high on the OBAMA economy and have nothing major pop up on his watch. The first second something real occurs he (A) denies it is happening at all), (B) blames everyone else for him not doing shit, and (c) denies anything happened in the first place.
so, you have no proof that 175,000 lives could have been saved if only Trump had done this or that.
figured as much.
All I have is what other nations did and what we "did" and the numbers.
If that doesn't suffice for you then go ahead and pretend that COVID isn't real.
What is a good estimate of the Covid infection level in the United States. We don't know.
What is a good estimate of the Covid infection level in New York City. (NYC thinks it is 20% but they don't know because their "random" testing was not random)
What is a good estimate of the Covid infection level in any state except Indiana. We don't know. (Indiana did actual random testing.)
To know the infection level you must do RANDOM antibody testing of the population.
If the Federal Government had instituted a program of repeated random antibody testing we would have known that the infection level in some areas was so small that a complete shut down was not needed and could have selectively surged resources.
I didnt pretend covid isn't real.
that's stupid.
I merely asked you to prove your claim. no sense getting mad at me because you failed.
Ummm...................
Morning..Tend to be wary of these so called experts and their predictions because some have been right up the creek..When all this started here in March one expert said there would be 120,000 deaths in Australia...Hmmm that is pretty damn grim..So he got his 15 minutes of fame, name in lights and not been heard or seen since..Currently we have 770 deaths Australia wide..And that is largely due to pure mismanagement by the Victorian State Government stuffing up the quarantine process in hotels by inept security guards...Otherwise it would have been around 200 lost souls...At the end of the day I do my own thing, wear a mask, wash your hands and keep a safe distance...It is no drama and just get on with it..As for the ferals demonstrating about wearing a face mask here, lucky I am not a cop otherwise I would tazer the lot of them...
The big difference is that OZ really followed the restrictions the US didn't does not now.
The University of Washington projection have been dead on for months and in fact a bit low. I believe that their model showed that we'd reach 180K deaths on October 1st, we are not at 194K.
Anoon.. Kavika..Yes unfortunately some were right and even I would never have imagined the loss in numbers in the States...Melbourne has got some of the harshest lock downs in the world including a curfew, but the vast majourity of people are abiding by it..Yes we have the feral element and the ones wanting their 15 minutes of fame, but even they are dropping by the wayside...We look at it short term pain for long term gain and hopefully that is how it will turn out for us..Look after yourselves and do what is best for you..stay safe...
Unfortunately, that is not true here in the US.
Many here do not and that is causing a much bigger problem.
Take care my friend.
OK. One "expert" fucked up badly.
Shall we then never again listen to any "expert"?
The death rate, early on, was well over 5%. Perhaps as high as 10% in the early days. Simple calculation for America: over six million cases, there should be 600 000 dead. The death rate dropped quickly at first, and has continued to drop. America has has about 190 000 deaths.
So... when did this "expert" you speak of make that prediction? How many cases did Australia have at that moment? What was the death rate?
Are you sure you are not using 20/20 hindsight? It's easy to be right when the event has passed.
Evening Bob..Nope not saying that at all..Just tend to be wary about "experts" that rabbit off these numbers when no one really knows what will happen...It was our Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly they stated these "predictions" back in March....Hell the virus had only just reached Australia and he was "guessing" what may or may not happen...Currently as of today 08/09/20 it stands here as: 26,322 infections...770 deaths...22,598 recovered. 770 lost souls is devastating and we have a long way to go as you mob do...But it is certainly nothing like 120,000 deaths and putting the fear of God and panic into everyone he had stated....We only have a population of 25 million people...Yes some "experts" are spot on but in this case he could not have got it more wrong...and no the event has not passed for us or you..We have a very long way to go on a very long road..Stay safe where ever you are...
What would have been the consequence of a much lower "guess"? Would Australians have submitted to the strong measures taken to prevent spread?
Back in March, we knew much less than we do now... which still isn't much. The death rate hadn't yet collapsed.
A "high guess" was much "safer" for a Chief Medical Officer.
Evening...A lower estimate is much more realistic than some alarmist figure. Even when he said it I just said BS..Even Spain and Italy weren't anywhere near that number in March and they have 4 times our population...He actually mentioned the USA as well would lose 120,000 people he got that wrong to. That was when it really did not add up...Us with 25 million the USA 320 million and the same number of deaths??. Currently Melbourne in my State of Victoria has had a second outbreak and they are now under one of the worlds strictest lock downs..There is a curfew from 8pm to 5am..No one is allowed out except for medical reasons etc or essential workers..Anyone else cops a $1,600 fine or jail time..If you don't wear a mask you are fined. No we didn't know much about the virus, but we watched and saw what was happening overseas and started making preparations and gearing up for the inevitable arrival...For once the tyranny of distance for us was on our side and time..Yes Australians have taken to these drastic measures to prevent the spread and the infection rate and death rate in Melbourne is now dropping..The rest of Australia is virtually virus free or it is very much under control. We have also closed all borders between States as well. So I guess compared to many countries we have done exceptionally well..And on that note I must away...Good night and stay safe...
For sweet dreams:
What you've described as the strict measures imposed in Australia is similar to what occurred in the city-state of Chonqing (population 32 million - similar to Australia) where I live, except that the population did it WITHOUT requiring penalties. The result was about the same - 679 infections, all recovered save for only 6 deaths, and virus free for the last 5 months except for the odd imported case. Those figures were verified by two front line doctors here who KNOW the truth, one of whom is my best friend here and no way would he lie to me.
What a contrast that is with the situation in the USA - i.e. the lack of effective leadership, the pendulum swing of advice, the total patchwork of compliance, the lack of common sense adherence to guidelines...God help them.
Your comment: "For once the tyranny of distance for us was on our side and time" reminded me of the movie "On the Beach".
What are you saying, Buzz?
Do you mean to imply that strict anti-dispersion measures... prevent dispersion?
Gosh! Hooda thunk it!?
I mean... just because strict anti-dispersion measures worked everywhere they were applied...
I've never seen the word "dispersion" used with respect to the virus before, but yes, what you said is what I mean, not just to "imply", or suggest, but to declare.
I'm in France, listening to French-speaking media. So sometimes I speak Frenglish
The word is still correct for the context, whether it's French or English.
I've often said that the opposite of "Art imitates life", i.e. "Life imitates art", has often been the case. In the movies, whenever a disaster that threatens the whole world occurs, every nation in the world becomes like one - complete co-operation that results in success. Since a lot of those kinds of movies are Hollywood films, the USA always takes the lead, gets all the leaders together and America saves the world. Well, in THIS case that couldn't have been more wrong. Trump decided to fuck the rest of the world and do it HIS WAY (that is, when he finally realized that he had better do SOMETHING). And so as you've now seen what happens when the population of a nation who have solid federal leadership and intelligent guidance, and the population follows that guidance because to them the collective good is more important than their "sacred" individual rights, as Shona has just pointed out, and I have many times pointed out - then the virus is almost completely or is virtually completely contained, the infection numbers and death numbers are low, and life returns back to normal, with a few minor continuing sensible conditions.
Well said.