Biden's national lead over Trump jumps to 14 points after debate in NBC News/WSJ poll
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Oct. 4, 2020, 1:00 PM UTC / Updated Oct. 4, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC By Mark Murray
WASHINGTON — Joe Biden's national lead over President Donald Trump nearly doubled after Tuesday's presidential debate, with voters saying by a 2-to-1 margin that Biden has the better temperament to be president, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The poll was conducted in the two days after the unruly and insult-filled Sept. 29 debate, but before Trump tested positive for Covid-19 and was hospitalized Friday at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.
The Democratic nominee is now ahead of Trump by 14 points among registered voters, 53 percent to 39 percent — up from his 8-point lead in the previous poll before the debate.
That 14-point advantage represents Biden's largest lead in the NBC News/WSJ poll during the entirety of the 2020 presidential campaign; his previous high was 11 points in July.
"The clear loser from the debate was Donald Trump," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
"And at least for the short term, this has damaged his standing against Joe Biden," Horwitt added.
But McInturff, the GOP pollster, cautions that the survey could represent a "shock to the system" right after a consequential debate. (Democrats, for instance, hold a 9-point advantage in party identification in this poll, compared with 5- to 6-point advantages in past ones.)
And as a result, McInturff believes that the race could return to the stable 8- to 9-point margin where it's essentially been over the last several months — which is still a difficult place for an incumbent four weeks before Election Day.
The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors (who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin) and suburban women (58 percent to 33 percent).
And men 50 years and older moved from a 13-point advantage for Trump in the pre-debate NBC News/WSJ poll, to a 1-point advantage for Biden in this latest poll.
Voters say Biden did a better job at the debate by 2-to-1 margin
Forty-nine percent of voters say Biden did a better job at Tuesday's debate, which was marked by insults, interruptions, falsehoods and personal attacks — most, though not all, coming from the president.
That's compared with 24 percent who say Trump had the better performance.
Another 17 percent say that neither did a better job at the debate.
Additionally, 19 percent of voters say they're more likely to support Biden after the debate, versus 6 percent who say they're more likely to back Trump.
The vast majority — 73 percent — say the debate made no difference in how they'd vote.
Among the 49 percent who say Biden did a better job, many voters cited Trump's performance when asked to describe what they thought was important at the debate.
"Basically, last night was a snapshot of the last three and a half years. Not being able to say anything about white supremacists, being negative and being unpresidential," said one respondent.
"I just think it was the same old Trump," said another voter who thought Biden did a better job. "He was bullying."
Even among the 24 percent who say Trump did the better job, the responses were as much about the president's performance than Biden's.
"I would say Donald Trump's admittance of not supporting white supremacists, telling the white supremacists to stand down, so to speak, by the moderator. The other important thing was Joe Biden's inability to form any coherent response," said a voter who thought Trump did a better job.
"It's Trump's debate, not Biden's debate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, summing up those voter responses.
Biden's presidential temperament advantage
The new NBC News/WSJ poll also finds Biden holding a whopping 32-point advantage on which candidate has the better temperament to be president, with 58 percent of voters picking Biden, versus 26 percent picking Trump.
That margin is greater than Biden's advantages over Trump on handling race relations (29 points), health care (19 points) and the coronavirus (17 points).
Trump maintains his edge over Biden on better handling the economy, but that margin declined from 10 points before the debate (48 percent to 38 percent) to 7 points in the new poll (48 percent to 41 percent), though that change is within the margin of error.
Trump's approval rating stands at 43 percent
Forty-three percent of registered voters approve of President Trump's job performance in the new poll, which is down 2 points from the last NBC News/WSJ poll.
Fifty-five percent disapprove of Trump's job, including 50 percent who say they strongly disapprove.
Trump's favorability also dropped in the poll — from 41 percent positive/52 percent negative before the debate (-11), to 39 percent positive/55 percent negative now (-16).
Conversely, the poll shows Biden's favorability rating increasing — from 43 percent positive/45 percent negative (-2), to 43 percent positive/41 percent negative after the debate (+2).
First numbers on Trump's Supreme Court pick
Finally, the poll asked voters about the president's pick to succeed the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett.
Thirty-five percent of registered voters say they support Barrett's nomination, while 33 percent oppose it; another 30 percent say they don't know enough information about her.
Those findings are similar to the first NBC/WSJ numbers on Trump 2018 Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh, whom the U.S. Senate confirmed by a narrow 50-to-48 vote.
In a separate question, 50 percent of voters say they prefer the Senate to wait to fill the Supreme Court seat until there's a winner in the upcoming presidential contest, while 38 percent want to vote before the election.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1 among 800 registered voters - more than half of whom were reached by cell phone - and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.
Mark Murray
Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.
Tags
Who is online
409 visitors
Trump campaign reaction to polls
Yes, it is true that the polls did show Clinton leading by three or four points in 2016. Butt, this isn't 2016, Biden isn't Clinton and twelve points is a hell of a lot more than three or four. Oh, and those polls in 2016, they were about right. Trump just pulled an inside straight in the Electoral College by slim margins in a few swing states. States Biden just so happens to be very strong in. So, save it. We heard it all before...
The debate helped Biden and hurt Trump in this poll. Let's have a couple more of the same.
true that the polls did show Clinton leading by three or four points in 2016. Butt, this isn't 2016, Biden isn't Clinton and twelve points is a hell of a lot more than three or four.
Whoops....The AP had Clinton up 14 on October 24...
Average was 3-4% in '16. Average is 8-10% now!
Oops! This is not 2016 and Biden is not Clinton...
So you were wrong to claim Clinton never had a 12 point lead, and typically, don't admit you were wrong.
Average was 3-4% in '16. Average is 8-10% now
You understand you are taking the final average from November and not October, right? Per the average of all the polls, CLinton had a 7 point lead in the middle of October. Biden has an 8.1% lead in the beginning of October.
his is not 2016 and Biden is not Clinto
It's not, but that's not an excuse to misrepresent data.
I am talking about poll averages and you are still talking only about outliners. Exactly who is being intellectually honest and who is just trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes?
So the following sentence
"Per the average of all the polls, CLinton had a 7 point lead in the middle of October. "
means to you that he is talking about outliers?
Strange stuff there, dude.
It might be the one who can't decipher what was written correctly.
FALSE! Clinton's lead was 4% not 7% in Oct!
please stop with the disinformation.
Read this again. “CLinton had a 7 point lead in the middle of October.” And you to prove that wrong by citing the average from October 30th? How embarrassing for you,
Show where Clinton's average lead was 7%...
FALSE??
He specifically said mid-October, and you attempt to refute by stating END of October stats, and you wanted to talk about intellectual honesty?
Freaking hilarious!
And there's 0% chance of Comey coming out just a week before election day to announce Biden's server is still being investigated by the FBI...
There will still be the lying social media ads purchased by Russia on behalf of Trump which Republicans will welcome and a lot of noise and dirt kicked up between now and election day but the blue tsunami is going to drown it out easily this year. The fascists are desperate so be prepared for anything coming from the right, but Trumpism is going extinct next month as a flood of patriotic Americans tell dishonest Donald and his sniveling sycophants and Proud Boys where they can shove their white nationalist fascism.
like coney made any difference!
Ha!
So I take it you wouldn't mind at all if 7 days before the election the FBI came out and announced they were re-opening the Mueller investigation because of new supposedly damning evidence? You'd be perfectly fine if that happened and you don't think it would have ANY effect on the election, right?
Well, I certainly wouldn't be whining about it 4 years later.
BTW, what about Comey CLEARING Hillary?
How come you only think that announcing a little extra investigation hurts and exonerating her doesn't help???
And FFS, how many people do you know who had not already made up their minds who to vote for at that late date? Get real.
Fact is Hillary ran a shitty campaign, took voters for granted, pissed off a bunch of other voters by calling them names, and had a history of not being the most popular person.
Well, because she wasn't guilty of anything it was the right thing to do.
Are you fucking serious? A week before an election announcing a "little extra investigation" obviously has an impact on an election. Exonerating her months earlier because she did nothing wrong was expected and deserved.
Even today in a more divided contest there are still up to 6% undecided. Obviously any bomb dropped a week before an election can have an impact. Trump won by only 110,000 votes in 3 swing States. It was gnats ass close even though the Trump sycophants refuse to admit it.
True, she did run a shitty campaign against a piece of shit. And yes, the piece of shit she lost to appealed to those deplorable xenophobes and homophobes and the worst America had to offer and won because of it. Even so she still won with the majority of Americans who voted for her. Now Trump has a history of not being the most popular person and is going to lose in a landslide this year, so chin up, the blue tsunami is coming.
igknorantzrulz far too many, dontcha think ...?
Ok, I think it is dishonest to think that an investigation hurts her, and an exoneration does NOTHING? LMAO!
He exonerated her before the election for a SECOND time.
To think the exoneration hurt her or didn;t help her at all is to be blind to reality.
Again, that was one poll not the average of polls.
Trump is more energetic and vibrant with covid than biden is without. Biden is gone. The hollow, dark eyes, the blank stares, nobody is home.
you'll still be saying that 4 years from now when Biden or Harris are running for re-election.
Not gonna happen John. The majority of rational US citizens don't want Harris anywhere near being president
IF biden wins, he won’t be running for re-election. He won’t even make it through one term.
Republicans never get it. Democrats are platform based not personality based.
Without Trump, Republicans now have - nothing.
Without Biden, for Democrats it's "Next!".
Democrats are platform based not personality based.
how quickly they forget..
the fainting for Obama....remember this
Even Bill Clinton, with all his effortless, winking charm, didn't have what Obama has, which is a sort of powerful luminosity, a unique high-vibration integrity...
Many spiritually advanced people I know (not coweringly religious, mind you, but deeply spiritual) identify Obama as a Lightworker, that rare kind of attuned being who has the ability to lead us not merely to new foreign policies or health care plans or whatnot, but who can actually help usher in a new way of being on the planet , of relating and connecting and engaging with this bizarre earthly experiment. These kinds of people actually help us evolve . They are philosophers and peacemakers of a very high order, and they speak not just to reason or emotion...
That’s not from the onion, but an actual op ed
Rev Jackson speaking about Obama’s mere nomination to be president:
“What Barack Obama has accomplished is the single most extraordinary event that has occurred in the 232 years of the nation’s political history. … The event itself is so extraordinary that another chapter could be added to the Bible to chronicle its significance.”
Yes I'm touched that the Rev was pleased to have Obama as President. But Biden is fine - Harris is fine - no Democratic President will be able to do anything if they do not stick to the party platform. If they drift, they will be shut down by their own party. That's why, with no great enthusiasm, I voted for Clinton knowing that she would have to deliver on the platform.
The Republican Platform is just whatever Trump wants - yes sir Mr. President. There is a difference.
Trump is more energetic and vibrant with covid than biden is without.
Yeah and very, very healthy with no co-morbidities
I would not confuse being maniacal with energetic!
Where are the “it’s only one poll”hysterics from the left? Did you forget your rage at posting the results of a single poll in less than 48 hours?
Do you want more poll results? lol. I have no objection.
-
This NBC -WSJ poll is taken after the debate, and Biden spurted. Guess we know now who "won" the debate.
Here! It's only one poll. Trump averages minus 8.1%.
This is not in the least bit surprising , it was obvious that Trump embarrassed the hell out of this country in that debate.
Today's NBC/WSJ poll of seniors has Biden at 62% and Trump at 35%. Everyone is starting to get the picture. Trump is a travesty beyond measure.
I'm really amused by the Clinton/Trump situation being used as a comparison, since there are so many differences between now and then. Desperation knows no bounds. I would be more interested in seeing a poll taken after Trump recovers from the virus - if he doesn't (and this is neither a prediction nor a desire) there will be no need for one.