Three Million Shots a Day
Category: News & Politics
Via: nerm-l • 3 years ago • 40 commentsBy: David Leonhardt (The New York Times)
Blah, blah, blah ... The only thing the Biden administration is managing, at this point, is public relations. The Biden administration is doing a lot of things just for show to score political points. And the Biden administration has been adding to the confusion to demonstrate they are doing something. There isn't a political solution for the pandemic so these political players need to stay in the peanut gallery where they belong.
We've known all along (or should have) that producing the vaccines would be the bottleneck. No one can administer doses of vaccine they don't have. Setting up thousands of showcase vaccination sites and staffing them with military personnel won't speed the process. If a vaccination site runs out of doses in four hours then there isn't need to keep it open all hours of the day. Our capacity to distribute and deliver doses of vaccine greatly exceeds the available supply. It's impossible to administer 3 million doses a day when the manufacturers are producing less than 2 million doses a day. Public relations won't change that hard limit.
Logistics can't solve a supply problem. And the supply problem really isn't a problem. We want the vaccines to be produced according to the highest standards of quality and safety. We do not want the manufacturers cutting corners to push vaccine out the door. Yes, we want more vaccine manufactured at a faster pace but producing inferior vaccine isn't an acceptable way to accomplish that. What the Biden administration needs to deploy, right now, is honesty and not razzle dazzle public relations.
The reality is that everything is working pretty well. The vaccines are being distributed and administered in a timely manner as they are produced. There aren't growing stockpiles in the logistics chain. Yes, the weather has adversely impacted logistics but that is only temporary and doesn't indicate a flaw in the system. What the country needs from the Biden administration is transparency and honesty; not public relations. We've known all along that vaccinating hundreds of millions of people would be a slow process. Public relations won't speed up the process and will only add to the confusion.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The Biden administration has been quite cautious in setting its public vaccination goals.
During the transition, officials said they hoped to give shots to one million Americans per day — a level the Trump administration nearly reached in its final days, despite being badly behind its own goals. In President Biden's first week in office, he raised the target to 1.5 million, although his aides quickly added that it was more of a "hope" than a "goal." Either way, the country is now giving about 1.7 million shots per day.
I have spent some time recently interviewing public-health experts about what the real goal should be, and I came away with a clear message: The Biden administration is not being ambitious enough about vaccinations, at least not in its public statements.
An appropriate goal, experts say, is three million shots per day — probably by April. At that pace, half of adults would receive their first shot by April and all adults who wanted a shot could receive one by June, saving thousands of lives and allowing normal life to return by midsummer.
Biden struck a somewhat more ambitious tone yesterday, telling CNN that anybody who wanted a vaccine would be able to get one "by the end of July." But Dr. Anthony Fauci also said that the timeline for when the general population could receive shots was slipping from April to May or June.
The shots are on their way
The key fact is that the delivery of vaccine doses is on the verge of accelerating rapidly. Since December, Moderna and Pfizer have delivered fewer than one million shots per day to the government.
But over the next month and a half, the two companies have promised to deliver at least three million shots per day — and to accelerate the pace to about 3.3 million per day starting in April. Johnson & Johnson is likely to add to that total if, as expected, it receives the go-ahead to start distributing shots in coming weeks.
Very soon, the major issue won't be supply. It will be logistics: Can the Biden administration and state and local governments administer the shots at close to the same rate that they receive them?
"I'm not hearing a plan," Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine, told me. "In the public statements, I don't hear that sense of urgency."
Bankers' hours for vaccine clinics
The experts I interviewed said they understood why Biden had set only modest public goals so far. Manufacturing vaccines is complex, and falling short of a high-profile goal would sow doubt during a public-health emergency, as Barry Bloom, a Harvard immunologist, told me. If he were president, Bloom added, he would also want to exceed whatever goal was appearing in the media.
But setting aside public relations, experts say that the appropriate goal is to administer vaccine shots at roughly the same rate that drug makers deliver them — with a short delay, of a week or two, for logistics. Otherwise, millions of doses will languish in storage while Americans are dying and the country remains partially shut down.
"We should be doing more," Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said. "I am kind of surprised by how constrained we've been." Many vaccine clinics operate only during business hours, she noted. And the government has not done much to expand the pool of vaccine workers — say, by training E.M.T. workers.
The newly contagious variants of the virus add another reason for urgency. They could cause an explosion of cases in the spring, Hotez said, and lead to mutations that are resistant to the current vaccines. But if the vaccines can crush the spread before then, the mutations may not take hold.
"We need to be laser focused on getting as many people vaccinated now as possible," Dr. Paul Sax, a top infectious-disease official at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, told me.
As my colleague Katie Thomas, who covers the vaccines, said: "The future looks bright — if we can do vaccination quickly enough, if people actually want the vaccines and if the variants don't mess with the plan."
'Our historic moment of crisis'
Nobody doubts that vaccinating three million Americans every day for months on end would be a herculean task.
When I asked Biden about his virus plan during a December phone call, he used the term "logistical nightmare" to describe a rapid national vaccination program. "This is going to be one of the hardest and most costly challenges in American history," he said.
Since then, his aides have emphasized the challenges — the possibility of manufacturing problems, the difficulty of working with hundreds of local agencies, the need to distribute vaccines equitably. They also point out that they have nearly doubled the pace of vaccination in their first month in office, accelerated the pace of delivery from drugmakers and have plans to do more, like open mass-vaccination clinics and expand the pool of vaccine workers.
Part of me wonders whether the White House knows that three million shots per day is the right goal and simply doesn't want to say so.
When Biden and his advisers talk about the fight against Covid-19, they sometimes compare it to wartime mobilization. And the U.S. has accomplished amazing logistical feats during wartime. A single Michigan auto plant figured out how to manufacture a new B-24 bomber plane every hour during World War II, and a network of West Coast factories built one warship per day — for four years.
"This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge," Biden said during his inaugural address. "We have never, ever, ever failed in America when we have acted together."
Near the end of the speech, he added a question: "Will we rise to the occasion?"
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We just can't get what we want when we want it. We have to wait our turn. Blowing political smoke and throwing tantrums won't change that.
I'll take under promise/over performance Biden approach any day to the embellished results/poor performance of your savior Trump.
And I as a Army Vietnam veteran very proudly second that, Mr. FLYNAVY.
"Throwing tantrums." Oh yes. The Mara-a-Lago MAGA bot/man.
Biden is certainly not over performing
Doo Whad Nah?
Yep, no one can accuse Joe Biden of setting ambitious goals.
Coming from you, that indicates a ringing endorsement of the man......
I guess you are really missing the governing by tweet thing these day eh?
Yep, no one can accuse Joe Biden of setting ambitious goals.
Just like no one can state any useful accomplishments for the majority of Americans during Trump's term. The white supremacists' were sure happy though.
Really? Weren't there two $600 COVID relief checks sent out on Trump's watch? Isn't that how the political left measures accomplishments?
You just stated the Trump administration's COVID policy.
And yet the logistics of delivering and administering doses appears to be working pretty well.
And yet the logistics of delivering and administering doses appears to be working pretty well.
Which Trump had no hand in.....!
The delivery is lagging, considered Moderna and Pfizer contracted to deliver 200m by end of 1st qtr. Currently there has been 72.4M doses delivered with 127.6M more due by end of the qtr. or 3+ million per day.
Over the past 13 days, 13.1M doses were delivered to the states, with 1st doses given totaling 8.6m and 2nd doses at 6.3m or a total of 14.9M. To meet the 3 or 4 week (PFizer, Moderna) 2nd dose regimen... 11.5M doses must be held back for that purpose, which currently leaves a mere 4.6M doses available for 1st dose. Which is why you read of reports about delaying the 2nd dose (similar to the U.K.) and contradictory reports of less effectiveness against certain variants.
Deliveries are hampering rate of vaccination.
Less than no hand in.
To quote Donald Trump, "The cupboards were bare."
The biggest handicap Biden had to deal with as far as the vaccines are concerned is that Trump had given away the stockpile, then lied that he still had it. Millions of doses that the states were counting on, didn't exist, and he had taken no steps to purchase more.
There never was a stockpile.
Yes, we've known all along that production would be the bottleneck. It's impossible to administer doses that have not been manufactured. Distributing and administering vaccines is not lagging. 72.4 million doses delivered by production translates to 36.2 million people being vaccinated. That's consistent with the numbers being reported. Since there is a three week lag between 1st and 2nd doses then some of the delivered vaccine must be held in reserve.
Production is behind by about 35 million doses (assuming production was up to speed at the beginning of quarter). But production has been increasing. At the current rate of production, about 150 to 180 million doses will be delivered by end of quarter. The manufacturers are about a month behind the expected delivery schedule.
Whacking the manufacturers won't accomplish anything. It's important to remember that the Federal government has guaranteed purchase of 200 million doses. That's not a production contract. The only thing whacking the manufacturers might save is money but that won't save any more lives.
There you go again introducing facts into a political fight... Thank you!
There was never going to be a stockpile of SARS-Cov-2 vaccine. The plan all along was to distribute and administer the vaccine as production delivered the vaccine.
The Federal government had ordered 400 million doses before Biden was inaugurated. Biden has increased the order by 200 million to a total of 600 million doses. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine hasn't received approval yet. But Johnson & Johnson isn't ready to begin deliveries for several months after receiving approval.
The biggest handicap Biden has to deal with is over confident experts.
They are directly responsible for the shortages. Every manufacturer on the planet should have knowledge and preparation for any product launch throughout their supply chains. In this case it is lipids to make nano lipids. Both the government and the companies should have know where the bottlenecks would be and addressed them as part of the lead up. Government officials, Pfizer officials and Moderna Officials all stated there would be no problem meeting obligations... yet here we are. Accountability is important.
The actual distribution rate and barely nudged the past 35 days. There were 42,216,375 doses distributed since 1-20-2021. 1.4M per day seems good for a start until you realize that 18.7m of those doses were distributed in January. Since January there has been 23.4M doses delivered at a rate of 1.3M. The peak 7day average for February (2-26: 1.65M) does not meet the January 26th 1.89M 7 day average.
Somebody, somewhere needs to be held accountable.
I never claimed otherwise, however Trump administration did.
So you are admitting that the Trump administration didn't order enough.
What's behind the vaccine shortage?
mRNA vaccines are new technology that had not been produced at scale before. Shortages of raw materials isn't causing delays. The mRNA is fragile and needs careful handling. And the mRNA requires specialized equipment that isn't off the shelf. The manufacturers are encountering difficulties that are common with early adoption of new technology.
Accountable for what? For doing something that hadn't been done before? The vaccines require highly specialized storage because the mRNA is fragile. We don't know how much of the vaccine being manufactured is failing quality checks.
Again... the issues were or should have been known, as development and testing of the vaccine was taking place.
I will not be an apologist for the drug companies, this administration or the previous administration. And the previous administration (FDA) allowing Pfizer to alter the agreement from 20M vials by end of March based on 5 doses per vial... to 6 doses per vial and 16 2/3M vials for that time period should be faulted. Even with that "adjustment" Pfizer is falling behind.
I see the link I posted pointed to the wrong place. Sorry 'bout that. Let's try again:
What's Behind the Vaccine Shortage
Here's the buttonized version of the link:
The development and testing of the vaccine is a separate issue from production of the vaccine. FDA involvement in testing of production is to ensure that what is produced at scale performs the same as what was used for clinical trials. The manufacturers must meet FDA requirements for safety and efficacy.
The manufacturers could drastically ramp up production by cutting corners that would sacrifice safety and efficacy. That would be unacceptable.
And yet accountability is being applied selectively. Yes, I understand that the pharmaceutical industry has a well documented record of abusing and exploiting consumers.
What seems odd is that those who are actually doing something to address the pandemic are held accountable by apologists for those responsible for the pandemic. The pharmaceutical industry didn't start the pandemic and those responsible for starting the pandemic aren't being held accountable.
The point of the analysis you've provided actually affirms that everything is working pretty well. In fact the production, distribution, and administering of vaccines is working better than other mass efforts we've tried, such as the last election.
I get it. It is perfectly okay to NOT question why the promised targets will not be achieved and merely state the oft repeated excuse that "it is a very complex and difficult project."
The ease in which people accept this mantra is why so many things are often over budget, with missed deadlines, etc. Once upon a time, people checked the progress and asked hard questions about why something is struggling, instead of simply rolling over and saying "gee... it's really, really hard". Sad.
Seems the purpose of accountability has been rewritten. Yes, it is necessary to question why promised targets will not be achieved. But when the answer to that question is that the task has not been done before and the task is extraordinarily difficult then the demand for accountability becomes a self serving vanity.
Are the manufacturers doing something wrong? It doesn't seem they are. So, the demand is to hold the manufacturers accountable for being overly optimistic in achieving what has never been achieved before?
When the whole damn mess started there were no expectations we'd be where we are today. The expectations were that vaccines might become available later this year, at the earliest. We really are way ahead of expectations.
Yet, quoting you...
Is it unreasonable to question the manufacturers when one changed the rules of delivery in January?
I don't think it is unreasonable.
It is the manufacturers that entered into these agreements with the federal government. It is the manufacturers and the federal government that set these expectations for the American people, so don't blame the delays on people's unreasonable expectations or "old people getting antsy".
Just to repeat...
The rate of distribution is slipping... not accelerating, nor would I say it is "working pretty well."
Yet you stated this...
And the numbers really do indicate that everything is working pretty well.
The only data I can find indicates the number of doses being administered daily is trending upward. I haven't found any production data. Can you provide a link?
As you pointed out, delivery of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is lagging expected targets. But the lag doesn't appear to be that large; perhaps a month. And the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines will be coming online in the next couple of months.
Found another link with CDC data:
The daily number of doses administered has been trending upward; showing that administering doses really is accelerating. The number of first doses administered has plateaued but the number of second doses administered has increased sharply. But that appears to be an artifact of needing two doses and the time lag between the two doses.
There isn't anything in the data that suggests distribution and administering vaccine is slipping. While it's true that current trends indicate Pfizer and Moderna aren't going to meet expected targets for end of quarter, the data indicates that the supply of vaccine has been steadily increasing.
The available data really does indicate that everything is working pretty well. The data indicates that vaccine supply has been increasing; perhaps not as quickly as desired but nevertheless moving in the desired direction. As the other two vaccines come online the pace of administering doses will accelerate even more.
Everything is looking good, so far.
I've been tracking those sites for awhile now...
It can easily be seen the issue with weather, but the upward trend had been weak. 43m doses will need to be delivered in the next 3 weeks, to get 1st dose back to 1m per day as per 1st of February and fulfill 2nd dose requirements of individuals waiting in that line. That is the next test line and IF Pfizer and Moderna were to achieve that mark, they would still be 5.5 million short of trending towards the 200M on contract by end of March.
saw a blurb that J&J might have a one dose one and done coming out ( still no word on if boosters will be needed for any of them annually at this time) that i might consider since i have already decided not to get the 2 shot regime.
I saw this one too, and would opt for the J&J one shot option even though it has a lower reported immunity development at 75%..????. From what I remember, it doesn't require excessive cooling to keep viable like the other vaccines do. This is the one that can quickly get us to herd immunity out in the USA boondocks simply because it is one and done.
yeah thats pretty much what i read too, and since it would be a "one and done ", its worth "consideration " in my view for my own individual situation.
doesnt mean im going to get it .
i havent had a flu shot since i left the service last one was in 91 ( was mandatory when i was in), my experience with that, was i got the shot , and got the worst case of the "man flu" each year, stopped getting the shot and since then hardly ever get a case of the flu , let alone a bad one.
i honestly dont know of anyone that would willingly after experience would get a shot that has proven to make them sick , ild rather just do as i do , if i get it , i take care of it , if i dont i likely have the anti bodies needed to keep from getting it anyway.
You just said that you'd get it if it was just one shot and now you're saying you won't? Odd.
I never said i would get it , i said in both posts i would consider it , considering it and doing it are not the same.
now being a one shot deal vs the 2 shot series , it would make me consider it more likely but that still doesnt mean i will .
besides it was fly that said he would opt for the one shot , not me.
Oh yeah..... I'll take my chances at 75% from one shot.
I've got RH O-Neg blood which from studies has shown to have a bit higher resistance and less effects from the virus. Last time I was "hard-sick" was 1994, and prior to that was in childhood back in the 1960s, so I'm guessing my immune system is pretty responsive as well. Wife and I got our shingles shot, and first ever flu shot together last month. I went to work but midday..... wow! Needed some Tylenol to finish the day.
Everyone should get immunized no matter what. Do it so we as a country can stand up, shoulders back, together.
if thats their choice , thats fine , only the individual themselves should and can make that choice for themselves. at least thats my thoughts.