Philippines' Duterte prepared to deploy navy over South China Sea claim
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he is willing to deploy military ships to the South China Sea to assert the country's claim over oil deposits in a contested part of the waterway.
Duterte, who has embraced China since taking power in 2016, has faced growing domestic criticism for his reluctance to confront Beijing over its activities in Philippine-claimed waters.
Tensions spiked last month after hundreds of Chinese vessels were detected at Whitsun Reef in the Spratly Islands, which are contested by several countries, including the Philippines and China.
Beijing has refused repeated demands by the Philippines to call back the ships, which Manila says are maritime militia vessels and China says are fishing boats.
"I'm not so much interested now in fishing. I don't think there's enough fish really to quarrel about," Duterte said Monday.
"But when we start to mine, when we start to get whatever it is in the bowels of the China sea, our oil, then by that time... I will send my grey ships there to state a claim," he said, while also emphasising his desire "to remain friends" and "share whatever it is".
Duterte spoke the day after top military leadership rejected a rumour that a social media group involving members of the armed forces had demanded the president denounce China or they would no longer support him as their commander in chief.
Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost all of the waterway, which is believed to hold rich deposits of natural resources.
In 2016, a UN-backed tribunal rejected its claims. Beijing has ignored the ruling.
Duterte has repeatedly said conflict with China would be futile, and on Monday warned of "bloodshed" if the Philippines tried to take back the waters.
Renewed tension in the region has alarmed several countries.
The United States, a key military ally of the Philippines and its former colonial ruler, recently reminded China of its treaty obligations to Manila.
The dispute comes as the Philippines receives millions of doses of Covid-19 jabs from China's Sinovac -- many of them donated.
The jabs have underpinned the country's inoculation efforts as it waits for the delivery of vaccines from Russia and the West.
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Duerte is going to be another in the long line of tail wagging the dog.
"Help me, or things are going to get out of hand with China..."
I will send my grey ships there to state a claim," he said, while also emphasising his desire "to remain friends" and "share whatever it is".
The Philippine Navy has exactly one ship that carries anti-ship missiles. The rest of his "grey ships" consist of two frigates, and one corvette that at best have a 57mm gun and some short range torpedoes. Pretty toothless. China will swat the Philippine military away like a few gnats and go on about it's business
Would the US and other allies let that go?
The Philippines have always been a key location from which to project power from in the region.
My worry is Duerte is narcissistic enough and is going to start something that he can't finish that will drag us into a direct confrontation the the Chinese Navy.
Just what we need/ sarc.
The real headache is Ukraine Perrie..... Putin makes a move ( and I think he is going to given that there are now medical units deployed with this buildup) there is little NATO can get to the table in short order. Putin wants an Eastern chunk of Ukraine (for now as he really wants all of it) to secure the Crimea grab.
I'm surprised we haven't come into direct confrontation with the Chinese Navy already. They are pretty much ignoring any international law or treaty and doing whatever they feel like it and threatening anyone getting close. It's going to happen sooner or later unless China changes it's posture OR the rest of world concedes the SCS as Chinese territory.
We're still the big kid on the block, and China even to this point can't go toe to toe with our Navy. I just think they want to weaken the hold the US has had in that part of the world, and they've managed to do that over the last few years as we have backed away from our traditional stance of support to that of a more "conditional" support of our traditional allies of Japan and South Korea.
Which is why China has backed down on those rare occasions the US has flexed in the region. As China continues to expand it's power in the region those confrontations will happen more often.
China at this point can't go toe to toe with our navy.
They don't have to go toe to toe. Any confrontation in the South China sea put our ships in danger from much more than than the Chinese navy.
They have a very large and elite missile defense system with long range ship killers in their arsenal.
The Mouse That Roared?
Taiwan To Begin 24/7 Simulation of Chinese Invasion (msn.com)
More good news for that are keeping up!
The Chinese air force is now invading Taiwan airspace on a regular basis, what this is doing to the Taiwan air force is forcing them to air alert their fighters on a continuing basis. This is leading to multiple accidents by the Taiwanese. If I remember correctly they have lost four fighters in the last couple of months to accidents.
The Chinese will wear down their air force and could cause many more accidents.
The Taiwanese simulation of an invasion will do nothing to stop this wear and tear on the Taiwan air force.
That also allow China to understand Taiwan's response time and tactics.
It certainly does.
IMO, any shooting war between the US and China would be catastrophic to both sides. Best to remember the Chinese army, navy, and air force isn't a third-world entity fighting a guerilla war in jungles or desert. The losses to the US even if we won would be overwhelming in scope.
The Chinese submarine fleet is very large within a few subs of the US and they are building nuclear/ballistic and large attack subs at a much faster rate than the US.
The CCP is entrenched in the South China Sea and they are not about to give up that advantage and we cannot move them out without a full-on shooting war.
That was the point I was trying (probably badly lol) to make above.
I thought so, so I just confirmed your point...LOL
In the 80s the standing line in the sonar community was that the Chinese subs were so loud that fish would wear earmuffs to protect their hearing. From actual experience in the matter, the truth was not far off from that.
I would say they've most likely gotten quieter since then.
To say the least. Here is a couple of excellent articles on China's old sub fleet and what they have today and moving into the future. It's impressive, to say the least.
One problem the USA would have in confronting China is that due to China's secretiveness, nobody really knows what a reaction would be.
What do the Chinese in power fear Buzz?
I use to think that they feared their own people, but that was 30 years ago. Today I'm not so sure.
Frankly, I don't think they have any reason to fear. Maybe 30 or so years ago there were reasons for the people to be unhappy, but take into consideration that the CCP is a government that has been able to raise the living standards of those who could have been the poorest, and unhappiest, eradicating absolute poverty, giving everyone a decent roof over their heads, good food on the table, education for their kids and superior health care. They also pretty well contained the virus, and I was impressed with the job they did to shelter most of China from it, which was a benefit to me and my wife and her extended family, none of us touched by it, living where the virus hardly took root and has been totally gone for almost a year now save for 2 or 3 imported cases that were properly dealt with.. I first took note of what the goovernment was doing at least a decade ago when I learned that the government subsidized the purchase of modern appliances such as refrigerators, stoves, TV sets, for poor people so they could afford them. It's the ancient Roman formula for keeping the people happy, give them bread and circuses - so the government doesn't fear its own people, and as well, being a nuclear power with nuclear missiles and a robust military with modern weaponry China has little reason to fear invasion. So just look at their economy today.- the vast majority of Chinese people are very happy with their government. I'm not discussing the Xinjiang or Hong Kong issues, where the majority at least are not unhappy, but it seems that to the ire of the west, the CCP has maintained control and managed dissent.
Thanks Buzz..... Glad we have your input.