If you hate the culture wars, blame liberals
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
On Thursday I posted a series of charts that all documented a similar theme: Since roughly the year 2000, according to survey data, Democrats have moved significantly to the left on most hot button social issues while Republicans have moved only slightly right.
This wasn't meant to be a rigorous scholarly analysis. And you can argue about margins of error, question wording, choice of topics, and so forth. Still, the gaps are too big and the trend too consistent to ignore the obvious conclusion that over the past two decades Democrats have moved left far more than Republicans have moved right:
I've made this point many times before, and I want to make it again more loudly and more plainly today. It is not conservatives who have turned American politics into a culture war battle. It is liberals. And this shouldn't come as a surprise: Almost by definition, liberals are the ones pushing for change while conservatives are merely responding to whatever liberals do. More specifically, progressives have been bragging publicly about pushing the Democratic Party leftward since at least 2004—and they've succeeded.
Now, I'm personally happy about most of this. But that doesn't blind me to the fact that "personally happy" means nothing in politics. What matters is what the median voter feels, and Democrats have been moving further and further away from the median voter for years:
I've added a scale of 0-10 to these charts to make them easier to interpret. As you can see, in 1994 the average Democrat was at 5 and the average Republican was at 6. In 2004, that had changed slightly: the average Democrat was at 4 and the average Republican was just under 5. In other words, both parties had gotten a little bit more liberal.
But by 2017 that had changed completely. The average Democrat was at 2 while the average Republican was at 6.5. In other words, between 1994 and 2017, Democrats had gotten three points more liberal while Republicans had gotten about half a point more conservative.
That takes us up to 2017, by which time Democrats were quite obviously farther from the median voter than they had been in 1994 or 2004. And it showed: Our election victory in 2020 was razor thin even though (a) the economy sucked, (b) we were in the middle of a pandemic, (c) voters had had four years to see just what Donald Trump was really like, and (d) our candidate was bland, amiable, white, male Joe Biden. This should scare the hell out of liberals.
The best explanation for how 2020 played out comes from David Shor, a data geek who identifies as socialist but is rigorously honest about what the numbers tell us. Here's a long excerpt from an interview he did with New York's Eric Levitz a few months ago:
At the subgroup level, Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent ....One implication of these shifts is that education polarization went up and racial polarization went down.
....What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives....Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.
....This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.
....Over the last four years, white liberals have become a larger and larger share of the Democratic Party....And since white voters are sorting on ideology more than nonwhite voters, we’ve ended up in a situation where white liberals are more left wing than Black and Hispanic Democrats on pretty much every issue: taxes, health care, policing, and even on racial issues or various measures of “racial resentment.” So as white liberals increasingly define the party’s image and messaging, that’s going to turn off nonwhite conservative Democrats and push them against us.
....If Democrats elevate issues or theories that a large minority of nonwhite voters reject, it’s going to be hard to keep those margins.... Black conservatives and Hispanic conservatives don’t actually buy into a lot of these intellectual theories of racism. They often have a very different conception of how to help the Black or Hispanic community than liberals do. And I don’t think we can buy our way out of this trade-off. Most voters are not liberals . If we polarize the electorate on ideology — or if nationally prominent Democrats raise the salience of issues that polarize the electorate on ideology — we’re going to lose a lot of votes.
Now: maybe you're personally delighted by the Democratic Party's leftward march and maybe you're not. It doesn't matter. Despite endless hopeful invocations of "but polls show that people like our positions," the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary—something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote.
So why is it conventional wisdom to point to conservatives as "culture war mongers"? As I've mentioned before, it's a straightforward consequence of behavioral economics. For most people, losing something is far more painful than the pleasure of gaining something of equivalent value. And since conservatives are "losing" the customs and hierarchies that they've long lived with, their reaction is far more intense than the liberal reaction toward winning the changes they desire. This produces more outrageous behavior from conservatives even though liberals are actually the ur-source of polarization.
Here's the nickel summary of all this:
- Since 1994, Democrats have moved left far more than Republicans have moved right.
- This has produced lots of safe states in liberal places like California and Massachusetts but has steadily pulled Democrats farther and farther away from median states like Iowa and Ohio.
- Recently, white academic theories of racism—and probably the whole woke movement in general—have turned off many moderate Black and Hispanic voters.¹ Ditto for liberal dismissal of crime and safety issues. Hispanics in particular moved in Trump's direction despite—or maybe because of—his position on immigration and the wall.
- Democrats will remain on an electoral knife edge forever unless they can pull themselves back toward the center.
This is obviously not a popular proposal among the white activist class. But a dispassionate look at voting patterns hardly allows any other conclusion. Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base—which is good!—but if it's not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to.
It is well within our power to break our two-decade 50-50 deadlock and become routine winners in national politics. All it takes is a moderation of our positions from "pretty far left" to "pretty liberal." That's all. But who's got the courage to say so?
¹And for God's sake, please don't insult my intelligence by pretending that wokeness and cancel culture are all just figments of the conservative imagination. Sure, they overreact to this stuff, but it really exists, it really is a liberal invention, and it really does make even moderate conservatives feel like their entire lives are being held up to a spotlight and found wanting.
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A timely reminder as the left wing media and progressives here big lie about how it's always conservatives waging a divisive cultural war, when the opposite is true. The left has become extremely polarized and radical over the last two decades, while the right has remained essentially the same. The Democrats embrace of the far left explains how the most personally unpopular candidate in decades, Donald Trump, won one election, almost won a second term.
And the left gaslights us all that they’ve been the same all along and that we moved far to the right. That is a bald faced lie.
No such thing as a culture war or CRT - just nonsense made up by the 'right'.
Just buzzwords to incite the gqp and trumpturd dumbturds.
Thank you posting this. You somehow manage to prove all my arguments while trying to argue against them..
I've done no such thing.
" A timely reminder as the left wing media and progressives here big lie about how it's always conservatives waging a divisive cultural war, when the opposite is true. The left has become extremely polarized and radical over the last two decades, while the right has remained essentially the same. The Democrats embrace of the far left explains how the most personally unpopular candidate in decades, Donald Trump, won one election, almost won a second term ."
Also, I forgot to say - this 'article' is nothing but projection, deflection, and denial.
That's freaking hilarious - he lost by over 7 million votes! trumpturd is still claiming that it was stolen!
From a friend of mine.......
"insert "By convincing anyone they are aq victim (oppressed)..............in the quotes below, is the core of my issue with CRT. It is absolutely the antithesis of a proactive and positive educational, cultural, social structure."
Except CRT is not being taught anywhere, so there's that.
Didn't say it was but you are wrong..........AGAIN.
But. Obviously don't need CRT when "victimhood" assignment runs rampant and gets fired up on a daily basis. CRT is being "taught" therefore subliminally. And being exploited and enjoyed by our "keep 'em on the plantation" liberal think. As stated in the above quote.........
It's the daily revived "crusade against oppression (which is also practically non existent except to those who wish it to be)" just keeps the ball rolling. As adults and a nation, the best way to remove racism is to quit bringing the smallest of occurrences to the forefront in the press, who are complicit in the exploitation and continuation of the narrative, out of the "major news" stories. Just like this whole CRT push. The more they push the narrative, the louder those on both sides are bound to be.
"Didn't say it was but you are wrong..........AGAIN."
"Yes, you did, AND I'm correct, AGAIN.
Nowhere in my comment did I say it was being taught............
Do you see "being taught" in there anywhere? Puhlease. Just have to argue for the sake of argument..........that is a pathetic tactic used by a few others here on NT sadly.
Please answer the question posed. That was a quote from another source and "being taught" NOT the point of it being posted.
If you can't answer the question, that in and of itself will make clear your position.
[deleted]
The teachers unions beg to differ with you on all that.
"f You Hate The Culture Wars, Blame Liberals"
Another 'blame the liberals' 'article' for something that doesn't exist.
Lol…the author of this piece is a liberal, and the concept of a culture war is pushed by liberals….
"Kevin Drum
Politics, charts, and cats from the newly blue enclave of Orange County, California"
So a random blog from some nobody claiming to be a liberal is your source?
That's funny.
Lol. You’d probably never come across him if you get your news from memes and Facebook rants. He’s a grown up pundit.
I don't get my news from memes or facebook - they're just normally things that reflect the truth of a situation.
"Politics, charts, and cats from the newly blue enclave of Orange County, California"
So this is who you get your 'news' from?
LOL!
The gop wants Democrats to surrender. Too bad!
Pat Buchanan declared this war on progressives...
Now that the gop is losing they want to shift blame.
Did you read the article? Nothing you wrote is responsive to it.
The Culture War originated at the 1992 gop convention with Pat Buchanan's speech where he declared the gop's "Culture War" on progressives.
Nobody is buying the author's rewrite of history.
"In American usage, "culture war" may imply a conflict between those values considered traditionalist or conservative and those considered progressive or liberal. This usage originated in the 1920s when urban and rural American values came into closer conflict."
.
" James Davison Hunter coined the phrase in 1991, a year ahead of Pat Buchanan."
you really don’t understand the article. Using historical data to show how the parties have shifted their stances over the last decades is the opposite of rewriting history. He’s providing objective data of how far the Democrats have moved to the left.
Bur Buchanan didn’t declare a culture war, he said one was taking place. It was an observation.
That is not true. You can look it up yourself...
I read the article. The data speaks for itself.
"I read the article. The data speaks for itself."
An 'article' from a random blogger. Who verified/confirmed the 'data'?
Here you go. Why don't you try and make a substantive argument for once? The sources are right there.
You expected something different?
Your asking for the impossible
Now that the gop is losing they want to shift blame.
Except we are not losing. Biden's win was because enough people were tired of Trump.
They apparently thought that creepy, sleepy Joe would be centrist and sincere....
instead they got bamboozled by the extreme left, who are screwing up royally,
and losing voters in every category.
In two elections 18 & 20 the gop lost the House of Representatives, Senate and the Presidency...
By any measure that is the definition of losing!
Dude, I have to tell YOU that shit all the time. You are as bad as anyone when it comes to claiming one party is dead or the other party is dominant and blah blah blah.
And here comes the report I am sure.
I wonder what you were saying about what the democrats lost in 2010, 2014, and 2016?
I damn sure did not think that was winning...
It wasn't winning if you were a democrat.
Who won the House, Senate and Presidency!
You did look at the years he was talking about didn't you?
"¹And for God's sake, please don't insult my intelligence by pretending that wokeness and cancel culture are all just figments of the conservative imagination. Sure, they overreact to this stuff, but it really exists, it really is a liberal invention, and it really does make even moderate conservatives feel like their entire lives are being held up to a spotlight and found wanting."
They are just figments of the alleged 'conservatives' imagination.
Whoops. Your cherry picking left out the most important addition to that statement..........
Whoops my ass . . . I didn't cherry pick shit - just because this Kevin says "it really is a liberal invention" doesn't make it so.
And just because you say it doesn't exist and isn't a liberal invention and isn't being taught doesn't make THAT so either. Touche.
Nonsense.
You didn't win dick or score a point JJ.
I don't even get what these supposed culture wars are about. I only ever hear the phrase from right wing talk.
The only 'culture wars' I can think of are the anti-abortion people, the religion should be government people and the gun lovers.
From just the last couple days
So the last couple of days - the alleged 'conservatives' have been bombarding sites with things that don't exist.
Eh, it still just sounds like a made up meme to me. The first two links seem to be about CRT, which is blown way out of proportion, imo.
The next is about the Q people..and the last is about vaccines.
I didn't know hatred of vaccines was some culture war.
You are now claiming Joy Reid is a conservative. Perfect.
That’s almost funny! Joy Reid? lol!
I’m with you. Every time I hear “culture wars” it’s always about some jackasses who do t like gay people, want kids to get a mandatory Jesus tattoo, or otherwise want a small minority group to be denied the same rights as everyone else.
t sounds like a made up meme to me
Progressives have spent the last 20 years claiming Republicans are engaging in a "culture war" every time they object to liberal policy. It's a framing device used by liberal journalists to claim Republicans are "attacking" the status quo.
I guess the article is a little advanced for this site, since it assumes familiarity with the concept given how often it's been deployed.
Just my humble opinion yet this so called culture war, no matter who says it, is just a way to divide.
Yeah… whatever. I agree, sounds like just some more crap to get people riled up for no other reason than to try and get some money out of them.
Yep. Much ado about nothing. Except maybe divide and conquer.
My bet is someone is trying to boost book sales.
The NRA sends me propaganda at least once a month telling me to fear the "other".
Seems at least half of the time the "other" is a liberal who is "Coming for YOUR GUNS!"
Seems all one has to do these days is order anything outdoorsy and the NRA is there.
Have always been a centrist/liberal gun owner. Mostly for targets and self defense.
P.S. The NRA trained me to be a sniper back when I was a Cub Scout.
"This wasn't meant to be a rigorous scholarly analysis."
Yikes, almost stopped reading right there but realized it defines most of my comments so I plowed through to the end. From the author's perspective much of his analysis rings true and should be considered if Democrats are really a big tent of ideas.
I was somewhat surprised that the Sanders populism of 2016 was not taken into account which saw a disgruntled, over Hillary, 10% shift of his voters to Trump populism.
How 2022 plays out without a populist on the ballot is yet to be determined; history can be a cruel mistress to those who rely upon it. I will make one prediction, 2022 will be vicious.
Thank you for reading the post and offering a relevant response.
The populist won’t be on the ballot but he will be campaigning for other less well known populists. 2022 will be the year the populists permanently wrest control of the GOP from the establishment elites.
Populists suck.
Not that I expect you to ever read something sane, but what the Hell:
Populists tend to have low IQs and little education.
That's why Trump loves them so much.
Ideally the populists will go straight to hell. Things always end badly with those dickheads cuz they play on people’s fears and resentment, promise to punish the people those fears and resentments are directed at, and generally don’t have a plan or ideas past that. Hence why populist movements always end as a pile of shit.
You're preaching to the faithful.