White House warns Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  perrie-halpern  •  4 months ago  •  70 comments

By:   Shannon Pettypiece

White House warns Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent
The White House believes Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment with press secretary Jen Psaki warning of an "extremely dangerous situation" as tensions mount.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



WASHINGTON — The White House believes Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment, press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday, warning that an "extremely dangerous situation" is building along the Ukrainian border.

"We believe we're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine. I would say that's more stark than we have been," Psaki said during her daily press briefing.

The assessment comes as Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Ukraine this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Blinken spoke with Russia's foreign minister on Tuesday morning and the two plan to meet in Geneva, where he will urge Russia to "take immediate steps to de-escalate," Psaki said.

The U.S. and Russia held talks this month that failed to resolve the standoff between the two countries after Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. The U.S. has warned Russia of dire economic consequences should it invade Ukraine, including crippling economic sanctions.

"What Secretary Blinken is going to do is highlight very clearly that there's a diplomatic path forward," Psaki said. "It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make whether they are going to suffer severe economic consequences or not."

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway Tuesday in Crimea. Russia has concentrated an estimated 100,000 troops with tanks and other heavy weapons near Ukraine in what the West fears could be a prelude to an invasion.AP

On Friday, the administration revealed that it had information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine. A government official said Russia had already positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine.

"No option is off the table, in our view," Psaki said Tuesday. "We continue to consult closely with European counterparts on severe consequences for Russia if it further invades Ukraine."

Ukraine was hit with a massive cyberattack last week that downed more than 70 government websites. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told CBS News on Sunday that the U.S. was still working to determine who was behind the attack, but that "this is part of the Russian playbook."

"If it turns out that Russia is pummeling Ukraine with cyberattacks, and if that continues over the period ahead, we will work with our allies on the appropriate response," he said.

He said that while the U.S. is still open to a diplomatic resolution, "we're ready either way."

"If Russia wants to go down the path of invasion and escalation, we're ready for that, too, with a robust response that will cut off their strategic position," he said.


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Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1  Buzz of the Orient    4 months ago

It's been much too long since America involved itself in a foreign war.  The economy could use a boost these days and I'm sure the arms manufacturers are licking their chops.  As well, Biden could use a military victory before November.  Just think about this - if Russia invades the Ukraine and America responds, what's the possibility that Xi Jinping will decide that that's the perfect time to invade and occupy Taiwan.  Wooo - both barrels.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1  Gsquared  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1    4 months ago

Your scenario is neither plausible, nor realistic.  America is not going to enter into in a direct military conflict with Russia over Ukraine.  

As for Taiwan, China is always going to saber rattle about Taiwan, but the likelihood of an invasion at any time in the immediate future is next to zero, whereas the possibility of further Russian military action against Ukraine is very real.  China and Russia, although both authoritarian regimes, are two very different countries.

 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
1.1.1  Ronin2  replied to  Gsquared @1.1    4 months ago
Your scenario is neither plausible, nor realistic.  America is not going to enter into in a direct military conflict with Russia over Ukraine.  

With Biden as President a military response was always going to be DOA; and the whole world knows it. Ukraine can kiss their asses goodbye. NATO doesn't do anything with the US doing the heavy lifting. No US; and NATO will sit on their hands.

As for Taiwan, China is always going to saber rattle about Taiwan, but the likelihood of an invasion at any time in the immediate future is next to zero, whereas the possibility of further Russian military action against Ukraine is very real.  China and Russia, although both authoritarian regimes, are two very different countries.

Underestimate China at your own peril. China doesn't have to do anything to invade Taiwan. The proximity of Taiwan to China makes an invasion very easy. Xi says go, and Taiwan says goodbye. Hopefully the US arms manufacturers are demanding payment on delivery of all the weapons they are selling Taiwan. Not one of them will save Taiwan if China decides to invade. The US and regional allies will be too busy shitting themselves trying to predict China's next move- whether it be South Korea or Japan- to do anything. Thank God Biden is in charge./S

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.1.2  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Ronin2 @1.1.1    4 months ago

South Korea and Japan are not concerns of China, but the independent existence of Taiwan is a thorn in the side of the CPC - and it is vulnerable. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
1.1.3  Greg Jones  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1.1.2    4 months ago

Why is it a threat to China? Because it has been independently successful...like Hong Kong once was?

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.4  Gsquared  replied to  Ronin2 @1.1.1    4 months ago

It makes absolutely no difference whether it is Biden or Trump.  Trump would never confront Russia militarily over an invasion of the Ukraine.  Furthermore, NATO does not have a defense agreement with Ukraine and no direct military response from NATO against Russia for an invasion of the Ukraine would occur no matter who is President.   Your propagandistic political argument is a FAIL.

No one is underestimating China, but China's economy is so heavily dependent on relations with the U.S., that is enough to prevent them from engaging militarily with Taiwan at this time despite all the saber rattling. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.5  Sparty On  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.4    4 months ago

Lol, talk about propaganda.    

If Trump is Putin’s whipping boy why did he support sanctions on Russia’s pipeline to Germany?    Meanwhile Biden didn’t fight it, thus enabling Putin more than Trump ever could have.

[deleted]

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.6  Gsquared  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.5    4 months ago

Your comment is proof of absolutely nothing and doesn't address the substance of my comment in any way.   

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.7  Sparty On  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.6    4 months ago

What do you mean?    

You said Trump wouldn’t confront Russia and I gave you a huge example where he did and Biden didn’t.

Your rationalization on this is crazy.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.8  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.5    4 months ago

Easy to be against something he had zero control over...

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.9  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @1.1.8    4 months ago

Your real problem here is Trump pushed sanctions on it and Biden approved it.

Its fun watching folks here try to spin their way out of that one.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.10  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.9    4 months ago

No, problem is you saying Biden approved it.

Biden had as much control over the pipeline and Germany as donald did.

Zero...

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.11  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @1.1.10    4 months ago

Wrong, Trump sanctioned it and Biden didn’t.    You can’t rationalize your way out of that simple fact.

That said, if you want to discuss how geopolitics works I suggest you start up a new seed.    Might not be a bad idea.    Seems like you could use it.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.12  Gsquared  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.7    4 months ago

I said "confront Russia militarily".

Your comment is, again, totally meaningless, and frankly, worthless.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.13  Gsquared  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.11    4 months ago

Your trolling is getting stale.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.1.14  JBB  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.13    4 months ago

It certainly makes participation less pleasant.

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.15  Sparty On  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.12    4 months ago

More ridiculous left wing rationalization,

[deleted]

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.16  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @1.1.14    4 months ago

I know what you mean, the left wing crackpottery at play daily here on NT is very hard to take sometimes but I manage.

You seem to manage just fine as well.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.1.17  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1.3    4 months ago

Yet another puts words in my mouth.  I never said Taiwan was a threat to China.  Its independence is a thorn in the side of the CPC.  For those who don't comprehend what "a thorn in one's side" means....

'a thorn in someone's side (orflesh)' - a  source of continual annoyance or trouble . A thorn in the side comes from the  biblical book of Numbers  (33:55): ‘those which ye let remain of them shall be pricks in your eyes, and thorns in your sides, and shall vex you in the land wherein ye dwell’. (The Free Dictionary)

Thank you for your opinion that Hong Kong is no longer successful.. 

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.18  Gsquared  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.15    4 months ago

Another totally nonsensical comment by you.  [deleted]

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.1.19  Gsquared  replied to  Sparty On @1.1.16    4 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
1.1.20  Sparty On  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.19    4 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
PhD Guide
1.2  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1    4 months ago
It's been much too long since America involved itself in a foreign war.

We are STILL involved in the war Obama got us into in Iraq and Syria.  Any response to Russia taking the Ukraine should be a NATO driven response not a US driven response.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.2.1  Ender  replied to  Jeremy Retired in NC @1.2    4 months ago

So you mean donald did not get us out of those places?

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
1.2.2  Gsquared  replied to  Jeremy Retired in NC @1.2    4 months ago
the war Obama got us into in Iraq and Syria.

That is ahistorical nonsense.

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
PhD Guide
1.2.3  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  Gsquared @1.2.2    4 months ago

How so?  

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.2.4  Tessylo  replied to  Gsquared @1.2.2    4 months ago

More like an outright lie.  

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Guide
1.3  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1    4 months ago

I think we should just stay out of it for now.  We have enough problems here and we need to concentrate on us for the time being.  Let some other countries with a good military strength tackle it if they wish.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Principal
1.4  Krishna  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1    4 months ago

Do you really think any American president go to war over Ukraine?

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.4.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Krishna @1.4    4 months ago

Did I say they WOULD?  I'm sure the arms manufacturers' lobbyists will do their utmost to convince them to. 

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2  Gsquared    4 months ago

Putin has no interest in a resolution of this crisis he created that does not include the complete surrender of Ukraine's sovereignty.  In fact, it is likely that Putin is interested only in a military resolution because he may well think it is in his best interest to demonstrate a projection of power, sanctions be damned.  Putin cannot be trusted under any circumstances.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
2.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Gsquared @2    4 months ago

You're probably right about China and Taiwan, and I don't think that Putin will want to back down which would make him appear to be weak, so I think we're going to see something very serious happen there.  At the very least he may construct a substantial army base on the Russian side, and place a lot of medium range missiles in the area..

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.1  Nowhere Man  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1    4 months ago
At the very least he may construct a substantial army base on the Russian side, and place a lot of medium range missiles in the area..

If one thing he is is consistent, he did the subversion thing the last time when threated with dire consequences which amounted to nothing but economic sanctions... He hasn't changed his tune any nor his tactics... He wants to use the resources of Ukraine for Russia's benefit, keeping them as a buffer against NATO.... It would be done already if it wasn't for the election of Trump... 

He knows the current administration doesn't have the stomach for war, so he can be even more belligerent and demanding as ever, cause there is no penalty for being that way...

He's not going to waste time & resources building a base, what does that gain him? nothing... He's got three more years to get it done before Biden is replaced...

Now is his time, he won't get this opportunity again... And he knows it... It won't be a full blown invasion either, the troops will give support to the clandestine units already in the country, and it will start like a little civil war and the separatist's will seem to grow and grow and grow, until they get strong enough to demand a vote in the government which they will already have won... That's how they took the Crimea, it's how they took the land connection to Crimea, and it is how they will take the rest of the nation... 

The troops on the border are to keep everyone else's military's out of it... You know your facing Russia directly if you decide to send troops to help Ukraine defend itself...

So you let him have his way, or you take the fight to him directly... 

Biden won't do that, neither will Nato... So he's already won...

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
2.1.2  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.1    4 months ago

Putin and Xi are set to have a summit when the Olympics begin to discuss joint issues and most likely strategies including economic and defense issues. It would not be surprising if they were discussing planned coordinated and simultaneous attacks on Ukraine and Taiwan. They perceive the US to be too weak and not having the will to intervene, and divided and are banking on the US being unable to do anything at all and they may be right. I admit that this is all highly speculative, but not beyond the realm is possibility. Unfortunately, Biden's actions have made it all the more likely.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2.1.3  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.1    4 months ago
He knows the current administration doesn't have the stomach for war

If you think Trump would have gone to war with Russia over Ukraine, you are very mistaken.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.4  Nowhere Man  replied to  Gsquared @2.1.3    4 months ago
If you think Trump would have gone to war with Russia over Ukraine, you are very mistaken.

Did I say he would have? Nope, didn't say that at all...  But I knew someone would allude to it...

What Trump would have done was honor the commitments made to the Ukraine by sending over troops to protect the government, daring them to fire on them. It isn't about actually going to war, it's about forcing them to confront the possibility of war directly with the gun barrel actually in their face...

In essence, what Kennedy did with the soviets over Cuban missiles... The game being played is a dangerous one, but one Putin knows Biden will not take that final step... Khrushchev miscalculated believing that Kennedy wouldn't take the final step, he did and the Soviets had to back down rather than take the first shot....

Trump would have done the same, sent in the 82nd or 101st with the Marine rapid reaction force and forced Nato to respond in support as well... Don't shoot unless fired upon... Force Putin to take the first shot.... Putin's not willing to take that last final step... This is why he plays the game the way he does... It doesn't work against a strong leader... It worked against Obama, it's worked against Nato, It will work against Biden...

Putin's a bully, as long as there is no one stronger around he can dictate the game... With a strong American president, willing to stand up for our allies, He's nothing...

As Americans we stand for something, all we need is a leader that understands that and lives up to it, rather than just pay lip service to it...

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
PhD Guide
2.1.5  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.4    4 months ago
Trump would have done the same, sent in the 82nd or 101st with the Marine rapid reaction force and forced Nato to respond in support as well... Don't shoot unless fired upon... Force Putin to take the first shot.... Putin's not willing to take that last final step... This is why he plays the game the way he does... It doesn't work against a strong leader... It worked against Obama, it's worked against Nato, It will work against Biden...

With that being said:

Showcasing an ability to jointly and operationally flex in a dynamic environment— to leverage multinational cooperation and insert ground forces both rapidly and appropriately in response to a potential crisis anywhere in the world— U.S. Army Europe and Africa successfully organized and helped execute a massive and complex multinational exercise at the largest training area in Ukraine, the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre near Yavoriv.
To strengthen allied and partner nations’ capacities to more effectively defend themselves, about 300 U.S. Soldiers worked tactically alongside about 6,000 multinational troops from 15 nations under the banner of Partnership for Peace, a cooperative program for NATO and Euro-Atlantic partner countries, Sept. 20 - Oct. 1.

I think it's safe to say that you are correct that US involvement would have been an option under President Trump.  Under Biden, we stand a better chance of circus clowns in the WH.  Oh wait...

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2.1.6  Gsquared  replied to  Jeremy Retired in NC @2.1.5    4 months ago

As long as Ukraine is not a member of NATO, under no circumstances will the U.S. confront Russia over Ukraine militarily, regardless of whether the President is Trump or Biden or anyone.  If Ukraine was a member of NATO, there would be a different calculation based on NATO treaty obligations. 

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.7  Nowhere Man  replied to  Gsquared @2.1.6    4 months ago

Direct from Wiki...

Relations between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) started in 1992. [1] Ukraine applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan(MAP) in 2008. [2] [3] Plans for NATO membership were shelved by Ukraine following the2010 presidential election in which Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred to keep the country non-aligned, was elected President. [4] [5] Amid the Euromaidan unrest, Yanukovych fled Ukraine in February 2014. [6] The interim Yatseniuk Government which came to power initially said, with reference to the country's non-aligned status, that it had no plans to join NATO. [7] However, following theRussian military invasion in Ukraine and parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority. [8] On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, the norms on the strategic course of Ukraine for membership in the European Union and NATO are enshrined in the preamble of the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions. [9] [10] At the June 2021 Brussels Summit , NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy, of course without outside interference. [11] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also stressed that Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO, as we will not return to the era of spheres of interest, when large countries decide what smaller ones should do. [12]

Ukraine is directly on an approved path for NATO membership, they changed their constitution to make it a national priority, they have been in joint planning and joint exercises to bring their military up to Nato integration standards and several joint exercises are being held... Part of the map is while Ukraine, (and Georgia as well) are in the process of integration and training, they come under the umbrella of Joint protection...

With a Map, (much to the chagrin of France and Germany who don't want Ukraine as a member, the rest of NATO outvoted them) Ukraine is almost a full member of Nato, they just don't have the automatic jump in military cooperation protections regular members have, but they do already have the protection of NATO, (NATO integration training forces are stationed full time in the country today) And with joining NATO, membership in the EU will not be far behind...

It's almost a done deal... Something that should have been done in 2008, if it had been, (when Russia was disorganized itself)  there wouldn't be this issue today...

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Principal
2.1.8  Krishna  replied to  Gsquared @2.1.3    4 months ago

Exactly.

Especially since Trump and Putin were such close friends.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2.1.9  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.7    4 months ago

Your comment confirms that, as I stated, Ukraine is not a NATO member.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
2.1.10  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.1    4 months ago

It will be interesting to watch and see how this little game plays out.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.11  Nowhere Man  replied to  Gsquared @2.1.9    4 months ago
Your comment confirms that, as I stated, Ukraine is not a NATO member.

Actually that is only partially correct...

They are as much a member as Australia is, which is a limited member, they are under MAP, which stands for Membership Approval Plan... 

Which means they are not a voting member yet but, are under all protections except for automatic military intervention, that comes with full membership.. Essentially when they can fully cooperate in military operations which they are in the process of becoming....

So yes they are a member of NATO just not a full participant yet which will take until they become integrated with the Nato command and control structure and hardware.... Anyone attacks them will automatically bring a vote to the full member nations of do they wish to intervene...

That's why Biden was just on the radio saying that the response to a Russia invasion would be very very hard on Russia, both militarily but economically as well... the answer to Russia wanting Ukraine out of NATO is NO, the answer to Ukraine not having any nuclear missiles in it's territory is something that can be negotiated...

Now understand, of the 30 NATO nations 28 of them voted to give them a MAP, which means yes they are in when ready, more than enough to vote a military response overriding France and Germany and potentially the USA....

So no matter what Biden wants to do over Ukraine, his hands are tied by treaty, approved by Congress, which is the law of the land... If they attack and Nato votes to defend we will fight the law says so... Even if we vote no...

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.12  Nowhere Man  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1.10    4 months ago
It will be interesting to watch and see how this little game plays out.

Yes Buzz, it's going to get very interesting the closer Ukraine comes to full membership... At this stage it appears nothing can stop that...

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2.1.13  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.11    4 months ago
That's why Biden was just on the radio saying that the response to a Russia invasion would be very very hard on Russia, both militarily but economically as well...

As it well should be.

the answer to Russia wanting Ukraine out of NATO is NO

I agree with that completely.

My concern is that Putin is determined to act and that he will remain undeterred despite the calamity Russia is likely to face.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
2.1.14  Nowhere Man  replied to  Gsquared @2.1.13    4 months ago
My concern is that Putin is determined to act and that he will remain undeterred despite the calamity Russia is likely to face.

Well, he is going to face his Khrushchev moment then, it's inevitable....

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
2.1.15  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @2.1.14    4 months ago

Khrushchev was replaced by Brehznev and Kosygin.  Not an improvement from our point of view.

We know that millions, possibly the majority, of Russians do not want to live under a dictatorship.  The question is whether the power of the oligarchy will continue to hold sway if Putin is deposed or somehow removed from the scene.

 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
3  Ronin2    4 months ago
The U.S. and Russia held talks this month that failed to resolve the standoff between the two countries after Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. The U.S. has warned Russia of dire economic consequences should it invade Ukraine, including crippling economic sanctions. "What Secretary Blinken is going to do is highlight very clearly that there's a diplomatic path forward," Psaki said. "It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make whether they are going to suffer severe economic consequences or not."

Seriously, sanctions? What more can the US do sanction wise to Russia? Putin doesn't care about the current sanctions; and damn well not care about any future sanctions Biden wants to impose. 

Psaki can talk tough all she wants. The whole damn world already knows the US won't do shit militarily if Russia decides to invade with Biden in charge. Biden already proved how toothless he is by caving to the Taliban.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
3.1  Ozzwald  replied to  Ronin2 @3    4 months ago
Seriously, sanctions?

Money talks louder than anything else to a person like Putin.

Putin doesn't care about the current sanctions; and damn well not care about any future sanctions Biden wants to impose. 

Not true, however the question falls to which is more important to Putin, his desire for evermore money, or his desire  to become a world power again?

Greed versus megalomania

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Guide
3.1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Ozzwald @3.1    4 months ago

Putin is personally worth 70 billion.  Sanctions won't mean shit to him as he does not give a shit about people other than himself.  He is a "let them eat cake" guy.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
3.1.2  Ender  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @3.1.1    4 months ago

Plus as we have seen, all he will do is jail any opposition to him.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
3.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  Ender @3.1.2    4 months ago

Or kill them.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
3.1.4  Ozzwald  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @3.1.1    4 months ago
Putin is personally worth 70 billion.  Sanctions won't mean shit to him as he does not give a shit about people other than himself.

Not so, ego would rear its head at that time.  Sanctions would effect Russian people who would then look to blame Putin for that.  It is questionable whether Putin actually cares what they think about him, but ego is a major part of who he is and his ego may not be able to take his loss of status from the people of Russia.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Guide
3.1.5  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Ozzwald @3.1.4    4 months ago

Money can kick ego 24/7.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
3.2  Ender  replied to  Ronin2 @3    4 months ago

So what do you think donald would do? Invade Russia?

Please...

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
3.3  Gsquared  replied to  Ronin2 @3    4 months ago

The idea that Trump would engage militarily with Russia over Ukraine is ridiculous.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
PhD Principal
4  Nerm_L    4 months ago

Aren't these the same government officials that planned the withdrawal from Afghanistan?  Aren't these the same government officials that botched up the AUKUS pact?  The press may ignore Afghanistan and AUKUS but that doesn't mean the Biden administration has suddenly become competent.

Russia is not going to give up Crimea and control of the Black Sea without a fight.  Russia seized Crimea because European interests were meddling in Ukrainian internal affairs.  At present there is a separatist war raging in eastern Ukraine that poses a threat to Russian control of Crimea and the Black Sea.  And there is little doubt that European interests are involved in ensuring the separatist war escalates to the point that European intervention will be justified.  NATO in Ukraine on some sort of peacekeeping mission directly threatens Russian Crimea.  

 
 
 
evilgenius
PhD Guide
5  evilgenius    4 months ago

No one above has mentioned how Europe (you, know most of NATO) threatens to cut off paying Russia for the current gas contracts. The Russian economy is already in the shitter and everyday more people are pissed Putin is spending on this military bullshit and not on healthcare. He may yet invade, it seems to be his MO when he's in domestic trouble, but it's not going to make him more popular in Russia AND it will force NATO to setup along their Eastern borders. Exactly what Russia doesn't want.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
5.1  Nowhere Man  replied to  evilgenius @5    4 months ago

EG, Putin doesn't care if Nato sets up in the former soviet satellite countries, heck when the USSR broke up they all asked for admission to NATO and were immediately granted full status and complete integration... Ukraine asks and get put off... Belorussia sees what happened with Ukraine's request and doesn't even bother to ask...

Russia want's them as a buffer, Nato wants them as a buffer to keep Russian tanks off their eastern borders just as much...

Putin may not survive his economic turmoil but I doubt sanctions are going to make it any worse than it already is... And there is the historical component to consider as well, Sanctions have NEVER stopped a dictatorship from doing whatever the hell it pleases.. EVER... Not saying that they won't have an effect, historically they have the effect of ratcheting up the tensions... Without economic sanctions, Japan would never have attacked the US starting a war they knew they couldn't possibly win...

Sanctions only create harder resolve and more desperate affect...

Nato cuts off payment? Russia cuts off gas flow... who gets hurt worse? certainly not Russia... Yes they threaten it, but will they actually do it? not hardly...

 
 
 
evilgenius
PhD Guide
5.1.1  evilgenius  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1    4 months ago
Putin doesn't care if Nato sets up in the former soviet satellite countries

The Russian oligarchy wants to restore the former USSR to glory. They want those countries back into the fold by political or military means. 

Putin may not survive his economic turmoil but I doubt sanctions are going to make it any worse than it already is...

Europe not buying natural gas from Russia would be much, much worse. It may not stop the aggression, but it will put more political pressure on domestic issues. It will push Russian leaders to crack down even more on dissenters. 

Nato cuts off payment? Russia cuts off gas flow... who gets hurt worse? certainly not Russia...

Other countries, including the US sell natural gas. It's been done before. It's just more expensive to ship it across the Atlantic than pipe it across Eastern Europe. 

 
 
 
Sunshine
Professor Guide
5.1.2  Sunshine  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1    4 months ago
they actually do it?

No.  Putin has already thought through everything.  He isn't a dumbass.  He will move forward with his invasion and already has plans in place for all scenarios.  The tough talk about sanctions is an empty threat.  He knows that with Biden as commander it is his time to move. 

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
5.1.3  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1    4 months ago
Putin doesn't care if Nato sets up in the former soviet satellite countries,

Yes, he does.  Very much.  He want to resurrect the Soviet Union and re-establish Russia's "sphere of influence" as deeply into Europe as possible, preferably, from Putin's point of view, over the whole of Europe.

Belorussia sees what happened with Ukraine's request and doesn't even bother to ask

Belorussia is a dictatorship closely aligned with Putin's dictatorship.  They have no desire to align or join with NATO, which is a collection of democratic countries, although some current members (Hungary, Poland) are beginning to backslide from democracy.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
5.1.4  Nowhere Man  replied to  Gsquared @5.1.3    4 months ago
Belorussia is a dictatorship closely aligned with Putin's dictatorship.

It is now, but it wasn't when the USSR dissolved, along with the soviet satellite's they were looking for help in getting up and running apart from Moscow.... Much like with Ukraine Europe didn't respond... So they went with what they knew winding up where they are at today...

Given how Europe has treated Ukraine, who can blame them.... Hungary and Poland can have any form of government they want as long as  they honor their commitments to the common defense... Nato isn't about being a democracy....

So in essence your saying that Putin is the modern day Hitler... Not hardly but everyone is entitled to an opinion.... Even a very 1950ish opinion...

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
5.1.5  Nowhere Man  replied to  evilgenius @5.1.1    4 months ago
The Russian oligarchy wants to restore the former USSR to glory. They want those countries back into the fold by political or military means.

I keep hearing this alot, thing is, I see no actual proof of this contention... They are never going to get those nations back in control, they are fully intregrated into NATO now they will never realign with Russia... The entire idea is wishful thinking...

Yeah, I know the strategy well, problem is it doesn't work.. All it does is serve to make them more desperate... Which is what actual history teaches...

The only correct strategy is to force them to make that last final choice... The choice that they know will destroy them...

 
 
 
evilgenius
PhD Guide
5.1.6  evilgenius  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1.5    4 months ago

First, Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO. Putin views Ukraine as an extension of historical Russia and Moscow's "sphere of influence". Most people say this is so far from happening it would never be considered anyway.

Second, Russia wants NATO arms out of Eastern Europe. They want to see a NATO downgrade of to memberships for Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovokia, Hungry, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Bulgaria. They feel NATO took advantage of Russia's weakness after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This will not happen.

Third, Russia wants a ban on NATO intermediate-range missiles in Europe. Basically back to the cold war stance where Russia had the upper hand. This might happen. It's being talked about as a possibility. 

Russia wants to carve out eastern Ukraine under the control of pro-Russian separatists. This is where the shit hits the fan as the Minsk agreements would have allowed this to happen, but everyone is pointing fingers on why the fighting is still going on in the Donbas.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Expert
5.1.7  Nowhere Man  replied to  evilgenius @5.1.6    4 months ago

I agree with all of that EG.. Ukraine has a map, which places it under conditional protection, they have changed their constitution to clearly state their intent to join the Community defense organization and contribute such, that was a pre-resquisite to getting a NATO MAP in place..

These are things that have already happened, Ukraine is going to become a full member of NATO, that process cannot be stopped no matter how much France and Germany desires it be stopped....

The fighting is still going on to justify the Russian troops on the border supporting the separatist's, every one knows the Minsk agreements aren't worth the paper they are written on... Germany doesn't want those missiles in Europe either cause to use them effectively, they would have to be fired from German territory, hence stationed in Germany...

A lot of people would like to go back to the 50's, it's time they joined the real world in today with the rest of us don't you think?

Ukraine in on the path to full membership status and it can't be stopped, their military is half way thru the infrastructure updates needed to work together with NATO, weapons deliveries are starting.... Another two years three at the latest, depending on how much equipment can be made to work with nato equipment....

Russia is rattling it's sabre loudly, looking for concessions which they are not going to get... so Putin's "RED LINE" is going to be confronted, and he will have to make the same choice Khrushchev had to make in the 60's...

Does he really want to go to a shooting war with NATO (USA)... Right now with a weak Biden in the white house he is viewing it as his best chance to win concessions... And it is... But there were only two nations that voted against the Ukranian MAP, France and Germany... They don't have the power to grant anything even with a weak US position....

Putin is going to have to decide to pull the trigger or not and it is all his choice...

 
 
 
evilgenius
PhD Guide
5.1.8  evilgenius  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1.7    4 months ago
Ukraine is going to become a full member of NATO...that process cannot be stopped no matter how much France and Germany desires it be stopped....

Not so fast... NATO inclusion is only by unanimous consent, not only does France and Germany dissent so does the US no matter what the politicians say in public. There has been no formal action plan offered for Ukraine to join, which is a necessary step for them to do so.

Does he really want to go to a shooting war with NATO (USA)...

No one knows. The best minds studying Putin for a living say Putin probably hasn't made up his mind. So far Russia as a whole is saber rattling out of one side of their mouth while out of the other side it's all about "political solutions". I don't see that Russia has the upper hand with the US or NATO here. They might hammer out an agreement on missiles, but short of Russia completely withdrawing from the region there isn't much else there.

So what does Putin gain if he does invade? Nothing... He loses foreign money, increases domestic unrest and some land no one except Ukraine cares about.

 
 
 
Gsquared
Junior Principal
5.1.9  Gsquared  replied to  Nowhere Man @5.1.4    4 months ago
So in essence your saying that Putin is the modern day Hitler

Nope.  I'm saying that Putin is Putin, but do you have any doubt that he would like to exert Russian hegemony over the whole of Europe if he could?

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
6  Ed-NavDoc    4 months ago

Ukraine has now become the new Fulda Gap!

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Freshman Guide
7  Right Down the Center    4 months ago

There was something to be said when you have a president that is unpredictable.  It kept some leaders in check.  Now with Joe you get someone that is very predictable.  And weak.  How about a red line in the sand Joe?

 
 

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