America is drifting toward geopolitical disaster
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
In his 1987 classic, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers," English historian Paul Kennedy identified economic instability and long, debilitating wars as the principal causes of the decline and/or collapse of great powers throughout modern history. He described these circumstances as "imperial overstretch," a condition arising from chronic imbalance between global obligations and the economic resources needed to meet them.
Soon thereafter, Kennedy's thesis was validated by the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In his examination of the world's other superpower, Kennedy posited that while America's pathologies were far less acute than Russia's, the United States was not permanently immune from the risks of imperial overstretch.
Now, 35 years later, his prescience is again being demonstrated by alarming evidence of a dangerous and growing imbalance between the United States's worldwide obligations and the economic resources required to meet them. At present, the U.S. may be facing a "perfect storm" of worsening political polarization at home and increasingly aggressive enemies abroad.
The most significant geopolitical development in this century has been the extraordinary rise of China and the parallel decline of the United States in the realms of military strength, economic power, and internal cohesiveness. The principal cause of America's decline has been a series of self-inflicted wounds — most notably, two long, debilitating foreign wars that, despite immense economic commitment, ended disastrously and left a legacy of failed leadership, political polarization and vastly diminished American credibility worldwide.
Making America's global position even more perilous are three militarily formidable authoritarian powers that share China's longstanding goal of overthrowing what they view as the "oppressive hegemony" of the United States: Russia, Iran and North Korea. These four nations, though not in formal alliance, consistently act in concert whenever they perceive an opportunity to advance their joint project of weakening the United States.
Showing that we apparently have learned nothing from our mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has wholeheartedly led the NATO alliance into a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, once again entering a potentially protracted conflict with no clearly stated objectives or viable exit strategy, yet definitely consuming vast amounts of NATO money and weaponry. The stalemated reality of this war — confirmed by Ukraine's recent successful counter-offensive — reveals that America, Russia and Ukraine cannot and will not accept defeat, thereby ensuring that the war likely will drag on with all the attendant risks of miscalculation, and potential escalation.
These daunting challenges would sorely test the United States world position, even if our country enjoyed the conditions of social cohesion and economic dominance to which we heretofore have been accustomed. Tragically, neither of these conditions exists today. America has become not only an economically battered nation but also, in Lincoln's famous phrase, "A house divided against itself." The reality of our national polarization finds no better illustration than the fact that, in the past two years, our chief political and military leaders have publicly declared that the greatest threats to our national security are not to be found in Russia or China but, rather, among our own citizens who have been broadly tarred with the brush of racism, white supremacy and domestic terrorism.
As the nation approaches profoundly consequential midterm elections, polling shows most Americans view the country as being "on the wrong track," and this is bad news for the Democratic Party, which holds the White House and majorities in the House and Senate. Similarly, the issues that most concern voters — the economy, inflation, crime and the southwest border crisis — are not the ones that most animate the Democratic Party's progressive base, which is much more responsive to the ideologically-tinged issues of gender, race and climate change.
What is bad news for the entire country is that the yawning chasm dividing not just the two political parties but society at large shows no sign of narrowing anytime soon, and as domestic economic and foreign pressure points continue to grow, the likelihood is that our situation will get worse before it gets better. When our people are encouraged to think that our history is worthy of nothing but self-loathing, and when we come to see opponents as not just having different ideas but being defective as persons or by virtue of their race or class, dark days are ahead for a country that once plausibly saw itself as mankind's last, best hope.
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What a paranoid statement. Nobody can prove such a "joint project". I disagree that China is actively attempting to weaken America. It is too busy defending itself from America's many provocations, blocking trade, demonization, attempts to contain China by forming groups of nations to pressure China, while China is extending its influence peacefully with its Belt and Road Initiative (wrongly called a "debt trap").
Finish the quotation: "A house divided against itself cannot stand." Finally someone other than myself has posted that on NT, which I have done many times already along with its biblical predecessor of how a NATION can fail in describing the direction in which America is headed. I see it from afar, while Americans are myopic about it.
You can add "monstrous numbers of deaths and injuries through gun violence" to that
As well, I am in agreement with the author that America is just extending the war by continuing to send armaments and other forms of aid, leading to more deaths and damage, which I believe has been seen abroad as being a boon for the American armaments manufacturers, a drain on taxpayer funds and an increase to the deficit.
Personally, I do NOT see the author's analysis as "right wing drivel" but a damn good description of exactly what is happening.
Drifting? Not hardly. The United States is lurching, stumbling, and bumbling its way toward geopolitical disaster.
The comparison between the United States and Russia is rather different than is being espoused. The real history is that Russian can't seem to win a war. And the United States can't seem to win a peace. Every time peace breaks out anywhere in the world, the United States botches it up.
Although this article tries to cloak itself in a sheen of intellectualism , its really just a far right screed.
Its two major points , by far, are that Biden is being too harsh on Russia and the war in Ukraine will be an endless drain on America, (which is a far right viewpoint), and that Democrats are to blame for the racism, division and domestic terrorism which in reality emanates from the right.
Can't stand what the Human Fuck Up Machine and Democrats are doing to this country- then blame Trump and Republicans for it! That will fix it!/S
Didn't read the article. No where does it state Brandon is being too hard on Russia. It does state the US has no exit strategy for the Russian/Ukraine war; and they are correct. Brandon doesn't. (Which is the whole world's viewpoint)
Just don't be a migrant poor brown person in Chicago, NY, Martha's Vineyard, or Washington DC. Other than that Democrats are the pride and joy of virtue signalling acceptance.
Ignoring the "Summer of Love"; or are you going with the Democrat lie that it was all far right instigators?
Also, remind us again which party has weaponized the IRS, DOJ, and FBI against their political opponents? Which party wants to nationalize election laws; end the filibuster; and pack the Supreme Court? Which party is pro criminal?
Leftists can't see the forest through their own unplanted trees.
Ok, how can the US have an exit strategy when there are no troops there?
Read 4.1.
No wonder the US is in the shitter. Leftists have no concept of money.
Now wonder? Exactly how the this country in the 'shitter'?
Nothing but blowhard words.
His entire comment was nothing but horse shit and rightwing rhetoric. Of course there's no 'exit strategy' when we don't have troops there. Of course the right wing fascists here in our country would be rooting for Putin and his rightwing fascist government that discriminates against lgtbq persons, liberals, progressives and anyone who doesn't goosestep to 'Russian Pride' propaganda.
Rightwing conservatives admire Putin as a 'strong man', making 'Russia Great Again', not only protecting his borders with an iron fist against brown immigrants but attempting to expand them and they see no reason why white rightwing conservative Christians shouldn't be doing the same here on our shores.
They even imagine there is some 'shadow government' called the 'deep state' controlling things from behind the scenes, using the FBI, IRS and DOJ as some leftwing political arm of the government which of course is total Qanon fantasy bull shit, but here we are having to debate these braindead deluded dip shits who couldn't tell the difference between reality and fiction if their lives depended on it.
We probably need a strategy for how we decide when we're done financing and supplying.
Like we do the rest of the world?
If you didn't read the article - how could it state what you said?
Plus, how does it feel living in a perpetual state of projection, deflection, and denial?
That's no way to go through life son. Making shit up as you go. . .
We've already spent about 10 times on Ukraine what we spend annually on the next ten countries combined. We've spent almost 3 times as much as we spend on "welfare" (TANF) every year for needy Americans.
It's important to remember that the Ukrainian war only began 7 months ago, and that Russians are famous for wars of attrition.
So letting this go too far without a plan on where it ends is sub-optimal.
That is why I wonder about nato and their reluctance. They don't have to spend any cash.
If they let Ukraine into NATO and Putin doesn't back down, all those countries are at war with Russia. Unlike the US, most of those countries are within missile range of Russia.
It's tough to explain that decision to your civilian constituents while you're all sharing a bomb shelter and their sons are in a foxhole outside Minsk in January.
I didn't see that point being made in the seeded article.
If we're sending taxpayer bought weaponry over there it is a drain on America. Far right viewpoint? I'd be curious to know if any left of center members feel the same?
Why would anybody feel that way about the party of identity politics?
Prove it...
Why is it that when this is posed to a leftist, the "Jeopardy" final round song plays over and over?
Better read the first three paragraphs again.
The author is clearly taking aim at the present Administration.
Ahhhh,.... please edumacate me SP. Where do you see the current administration mentioned in those paragraphs?
Please see my 3.2.1 for guidance.
What bullshit. We did not start the war in Ukraine. We have no exit strategy as we are not there...
58 billion dollars so far says you are wrong. That does not include what was funneled to Ukraine by the alphabet soup agencies. Nor does it include the costs of maintaining US troop presence on the countries bordering Ukraine to prevent spill over.
How much more are Democrats prepared to spend?
Which country will Ukraine tap to pay for the repairs if this war ever ends?
Brandon has no plan on what the US will accept to end the war. Again how many US tax dollars do you expect to waste?
You actually think that we would have no troops over there regardless....
So there is no exit strategy as we are not there fighting and you complain about money...
Why is the right wing on this site on the side of Russia and attacking our own country?
What the hell are you talking about? When does our president get a say on when or how a war will end....
The amount we have now? Not even close.
Heard of inflation? Think dumping endless amounts of money into a never ending Ukraine/Russian war is helping it? Again how much fucking money is the left willing to waste?
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The war will be over when the US decides to stop funding it. Ukraine will then negotiate peace. Right now they are sucking the US dry.
So you are upset at the amount of troops we have in an area...Why?
The inner fascists seem to be the republicans that take the side of Russia.
It is quite obvious.
It will be over when Russia stops attacking another country.
Stop blaming the US for what others are doing.
Makes you sound like a Russian stooge.
Get a clue.
Not even the US media is trying to deny Ukraine's fascist problem anymore.
As for Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia BS. I am not pro Russian. I am anti the US doing stupid shit foreign policy wise. I am anti wasting billions of dollars in a never ending proxy war. What is it going to fucking take for the US to stay out of other people's damn wars?
Russia is no threat to NATO. It is no threat to it's neighbors. It can't even beat fucking Ukraine for Christ's sakes! It is going to take years for Russia to recover from this war militarily; and who knows how much longer than that for them to recover domestically. Their own people are fleeing the country in record numbers!
The only thing Russia has left is it's nuclear arsenal; and Putin has already stated repeatedly he isn't going to use it unless he perceives a threat from the west to Russia's territory. If he hasn't used them by now with the US funneling billions in aid and weaponry to Ukraine he isn't going to use it unless we do something stupid and embolden Ukraine to carry out attacks in Russian territory.
When are fucking leftists on this site going to start caring more about our own borders than Ukraine's?
Putin will not back down, he can't. So you are prepared to waste all of our money aiding a bunch of fascists.
The only thing I am blaming the US for is getting involved in another damn never ending proxy war.
Makes you sound like a fascist pig. But I am getting used to that from Democrats.
He could certainly apply pressure.
There are any number of combinations of cutting off funding, strong-arming Ukrainian entry into NATO, and various other diplomatic tools that he could use, depending on what outcome he's willing to live with.
Inflation is not from war. Inflation is a supply/ demand measurement by consumers.
What the hell? Where in the media, besides right wing platforms, is anyone saying Ukraine has a fascist problem?
The only place I have ever heard that is extreme right wing sites.
If Russia is so destroyed then what is the problem?
I just think it is ironic now we have people like you complaining about spending money when barely a peep with all we spent in the middle east.
Do spare me the worried about money angle when we all know it's bullshit.
So it is fascist giving aid to another country? Someone has a fucked up idea of what that word means.
And yet it seems he has done none of those things that the right wing are complaining about.
In the broader sense of "entering into a conflict without a plan", I think you could make an argument that's what he's doing.
I don't think he's done a very good job communicating why supplying arms and cash to Ukraine serves American interests. I think it does, but I don't think he's done a good job explaining that.
I wonder if that would even change any minds.
I dunno. At this point, the tribal morons on both sides have left common sense and rational thought so far behind them that it certainly seems unlikely.
He can't really say something practical like "we're protecting some of the largest deposits of lithium and titanium in the world", because his lovely left base will be emotionally devastated and abandon him right before the midterms. The fighty righties might recognize the value of that idea, or they may revert to "we hate electric cars" and other similar stupidity. They are not going to vote for his Democrats anyway, so he's really not got much to gain there no matter what he says.
My daughter told me the other night of having a vivid dream that the US had a civil war and the country had split in half into two separate countries of East United States and West United States with the boundary being the Mississippi River.
I doubt that would happen, pretty sure Texas would go its own way.
Ha. I could see a lot of people flocking there too.
Probably true. I forgot to mention she said in her dream that California suffered a huge quake along the San Andreas Fault splitting it entirely from the mainland.
California tumbles into the sea
That'll be the day I go back to Annandale
Tried to warn you
About Chino and Daddy Gee
But I can't seem to get to you through the U.S. Mail
Well I hear the whistle but I can't go, I'm gonna
Take her down to Mexico, she said oh no
Guadalajara won't do
She has the makings of a Netflix series there.
HEY! My daughter just moved to Davis for her PhD. It better stay connected till she's done.
(Chuckles.)
Easy enough; fill and fix the "chasm" with reasonable compromise. Both sides work for the edification and strengthening of the good of the land and its citizens—plural. Forget this nonsense mentality of winner take all: as we are a weakened and demoralized nation when we fight amongst ourselves-and when we hold swaths of the citizenry as inferior and of little value to the whole of the country.
This nation's history is one better served by learning, telling, and sharing the whole truths of the past-not just "exceptionalist" attitudes and activities, per se. That is, don't run from our past national disgraces and exposures, admit our 'trangressions,' and make ways to do better going forward.
I don't think we can have a meaningful conversation about the future demise of America without attention to the demise of our educational system that has already occurred.
Decades of appalling mismanagement have created a critical mass of people with too easily obtained diplomas and degrees who base beliefs in tribal affiliation rather than the facts they lack the tools to understand.
Jack, that wouldn't be happening if the job actually didn't suck now (total lack of respect for teachers going on for decades) and eh pay.
On this, we agree. Root cause may be a different issue, but as for the fact...yeah, why would anyone want to teach?
Agreed (Trans Rex/Perrie). Beset by critics who offer little to nothing constructive or positive in the larger scheme of public education is a significant part of the problem. We have public schooling for the good of learning and socializing on people together. So that we are not just a nation of un-bonded and unaffiliated groups!
I was a public school math teacher, and my daughter currently is one. We talk "shop" a couple of times a week, at least.
The respect she gets from the students and parents is about the same as I got from mine. She makes significantly more than I did. She's in her 7th year, and her income by herself is more than the median household income in America. That doesn't account for teacher retirement, which is FAR more robust than the Social Security program regular workers get.
The big difference I see between 30 years ago and today is the number of kids specially classified for some sort of modification/lowering of standards, either through special education or 504. I might have had 5-10% of my students on modification programs. She has over 30%.
We rubber stamp HS diplomas because the schools cannot afford to let their dropout rates rise, and we're still measuring them on that metric. That has filtered its way up into the collegiate level, where we now have kids getting undergraduate or even advanced degrees without learning any math or science. How can someone possibly understand the ramifications of economic policy when they can't figure the tip at a restaurant?