US-China War To Happen By 2025, Government Officials Predict
Category: News & Politics
Via: vic-eldred • 2 years ago • 73 commentsBy: International Business Times
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
KEY POINTS
- Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan ordered his personnel to prepare by firing "a clip" and "aim for the head"
- Minihan told Air Force commanders and personnel to report all major efforts in preparation for a war with China
- Texas GOP Rep. Michael McCaul said a war with China is "very high" if Biden continues to project "weakness"
The United States and China could be headed to war in 2025, according to an Air Force memo that sparked concerns among government officials.
Four-star Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of the Air Force's Air Mobility Command, said in a memo obtained by NBC News that he predicts the U.S. would be at war with China in less than two years.
Minihan told his officers to get ready by firing "a clip" at a target and "aim for the head."
"I hope I am wrong. My guts tells me will fight in 2025," Minihan said.
The Air Force general argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping would have an opportunity to attack Taiwan as the U.S. will be "distracted" by the presidential elections in 2024. Taiwan is also scheduled to conduct an election in the same year.
Minihan laid out in his memo the preparations for a potential war with China, including establishing "a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team" to defend and win the first island chain in the region.
Minihan ordered all personnel under the Air Mobility Command and other Air Force operational commanders to report all major efforts in preparation for a possible conflict and update their records and emergency contacts.
The memo alarmed Texas GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, telling Fox News that he "hopes" the general is wrong in his assessment but at the same time, "I think he's right."
McCaul said China could resort to a military invasion of Taiwan if they fail at influencing the Taiwanese presidential elections.
The Republican congressman added a potential war between the U.S. and China is "very high" if President Joe Biden continues to project "weakness."
But a spokesperson for the Air Mobility Command allayed fears surrounding the memo, saying that Minihan's order "build on last year's foundational efforts" of the command to prepare the Air Force for future conflict.
An official of the Department of Defense said the general's comments "are not representative of the department's view on China."
The memo was revealed after Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin III "seriously doubts" that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent.
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This follows a report that the US military is now unprepared for a way to defend Taiwan:
The 2024 election and our dishonest media might just be the distraction the CCP needs to act on Taiwan.
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Minihan sounds like a far right nut case. Wouldnt be the first time we've had them high up in our military. Think Michael Flynn.
When one is making a salient point, large lettering wouldn't be necessary/
I like a variation in font sizes. Reduces the monotony.
How ironic is that advice?
Do you remember that we had one here who said "it gave her a headache?"
You've never taken my advice.
Actually except for some of your more private colorful suggestions.
I have read some of the books you suggested.
Never say never because you really don't know.
You think you know, but you don't.
I remember informing posters not to use bold because my screen is in braille and it hurts my fingertips.
As well, because of my waning vision due to my old age, I try (but sometimes forget) to bump up my font to 14 pt and appreciate it when others do so as well, since I sometimes have to use a magnifying glass to read what's posted on this site.
It's the same tactic every time. Slander.
If you cannot dazzle with brilliance, baffle with bull#$*t!
I hope he's not another Michael Flynn, one is enough of that shit. The kindest thing you can say about this story is that hopefully it wasnt meant to get outside of his command.
It reminds me of an old folksong.
General Minihan is a front line commander who has led people in combat. General Flynn was, in the vernacular a "staff weenie" Intel officer who never went near the front lines himself. Flynn was a politician in a military uniform. If I had to go into combat again, I would much rather follow someone like General Minihan any day!
Not that it matters much but this guy is the penultimate ROTC ladder climber in the Air Force. He was a 130 pilot. I see nothing that stands out in his record as leading people in combat.
Petraeus, also a ladder climber and candy collector, would be a more likely person to follow who actually was boots on the ground in Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan before he ruined his rep over those classified docs.
When you attack who said it rather than present a counter argument to what was said, it has a good chance of being slander.
Some people have elevated that to a art form.
Don't know about you, but I saw some pretty heroic tactical airlift Herc drivers, especially the AC-130 "Spectre" gunship crews in my 20 years military service.
AC-130 crews and A-10 pilots, flying low and slow to provide accurate and timely Close Air Suopprt to ground pounders are awesome. In Desert Storm, A-10's destroyed close to 1,00-0 Iraqi tanks, and several thousand artillery pieces and other vehicles.
Yep, the infamous "Highway of Death" outside of Kuwait City.
More than just Highway 80, in 40 days of combat, A-10's flew more than 8,000 combat sorties.
Spectre gunships were better known back in the day as ''Spooky'' or Puff the Magic Dragon. They saved a hell of a lot of us with firepower that over the years has made the Spectre one of the best if not the best ground support aircraft in the world.
The AC130 Gunship doesn't fall under the Air Force Air Mobility Command but under the Air Force Special Operations Command.
My point was, whether it is AMC or SOC, it does not make those Herc aircrews any less heroic for the jobs they do going into harms way along and beyond the forward area of battle. They have the potential to get shot at and shot up just like any others in a front line combat zone. That's as opposed to people like Flynn who got their promotions without ever having set foot in combat zones.
Not debating his leadership just pointing out that Spectre isn’t under his command.
Understood.
So what John?
Seriously, you have no idea what he is going through. Or what he is even seeking help for. How many solders and vets need help; but never request it due to the fear it will stunt their military career- or they will be judged by others?
The man has a very distinguished career.
In case you didn't notice; look who appointed him to the position.
That is right Brandon appointed him. So go ask the person you put in charge of the country why.
Someone recommended him to Biden, obviously. The president doesnt personally vet every appointment.
Brandon still put him there John. Brandon is the one keeping him there.
The man has an exemplary military career.
The fact you don't happen to agree with him on China doesn't mean he is wrong.
Anyone thinks that China doesn't have plans to take Taiwan; and isn't using Russia's war with Ukraine to leach military and financial resources from the US is an idiot.
It is just a question of when Xi thinks he is in a strong enough position; and the US a weak enough one to make the move.
Hopefully it will not happen; but the US had damn well better be ready for it- and right now we aren't!
How can we find the time when we've got more important issues like making sure five year olds have access to drag queen story hour?
No, that's the Senate responsibility. Biden presumably did vet his Nation Strategy:
He see China as our most significant threat. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/
We are currently restructuring our forces in Japan and will announce soon an expansion of access to Philippine military bases, including two on the northern island of Luzon. Luzon is a strategic position in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Exactly, here is a bit more information on the move back to Subic Bay.
U.S. military poised to return to Subic Bay, counter China's presence
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/11/34dad3ba3fae-us-military-poised-to-return-to-subic-bay-counter-chinas-presence.html#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20military%20will%20likely,the%20free%20port%20zone%20said.
I just finished reading the article. It is dated 24 November 2022, but if this goes ahead it could definitely be a regional game changer and a boost for US military presence to counter China in the region. It would also really piss off the CCP because they were trying to negotiate for control of Subic Bay as well.
It is going ahead per other articles, doc.
That's got to be making Xi and the CCP more than just a little nervous.
I'm sure that it will and additionally the CCP is really upset about the new Japanese/Australian joint military pact. The first of it's kind for Japan other than the one with the US.
Morning..re the CCP chucking a wobbly over the Japan/ Aussie pact..
We aim to please..
Sorry John but I see no problem with that. A lot of soldiers can have stress.
Seeking help should not be a stigma.
seen on Washington Post comment section on this story
"I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids."
—Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper”
Stanley Kubrick, Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Shooting Script
By the way, how come Xi didnt attack Taiwan when the US was "distracted" by the 2020 and 2022 elections ?
We hadn't devoted enough resources to Ukraine yet.
Just guessing:
In 2020 Trump still had that bigger button. Oh, did they fear him!
In the midterms, if you recall, everyone thought they would be a red wave. Not much distraction at the time.
Better to be wrong and prepared than be wrong and totally unprepared. Courtesy of the current administration, we are very unprepared right now.
With a questionable CiC.
Very questionable.
What would a war with China over Taiwan look like? One thing we know for certain is it wouldn't be a land war. There won't be a need for tanks, howitzers, or boots on the ground unless the United States intends to invade mainland China.
A war with China would be a maritime war likely relying heavily on submarines. There won't be a lot for the Air Force to do except fly cargo to a blockaded Taiwan. The Naval battlegroups won't have much to do either except mine sweeping and anti-submarine work. China doesn't need to invade Taiwan; strangling Taiwan with a blockade would be sufficient.
Any type of blockade of Taiwan by China is fraught with danger for China. In your scenario using only submarines would be dangerous since the US also has a huge sub fleet and of course anti-sub surface ships and planes.
Additionally, since it is an area of heavy seaborne trade for the world stopping merchant ships of all nations or endangering them would elicit a response from them as well in particular, Japan, which has 22 very modern subs and South Korea which has 18 very modern subs.
A marine/land invasion again would be fraught with danger and the casualties to both China and Taiwan would be substantial. In this scenario in the end China would win but that scenario changes if the US joins the fight or any other of the Asian nations on Taiwan's side.
Planning and war games are interesting but the real test is when and if a war really starts as Russian and many experts are finding out.
The General has a right to his opinion, but he is in a command position in the military and thus it is better to put your tongue on hold and think out your response or command.
To that point, the Pentagon has distanced itself from his statement.
A little early for the fear card but what the hell, one more to stack the deck. @!@
7 Failed Predictions From History
China's economy is slowing faster than anticipated so going to war with it's biggest market isn't a smart, or good idea.
You are correct. In addition China's population is declining along decreased fertility rates among the adult population. While not yet a crisis, a war that China engages in could very well accelerate that decline to crisis levels.
China had its first population drop in six decades.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-since-1961-2023-01-17/#:~:text=The%20country's%20National%20Bureau%20of,year%20of%20China's%20Great%20Famine.&text=That%20possibly%20makes%20India%20the,U.N.
As you know China is facing a serious demographic problem concerning the economy as the number of elderly grow and the number of taxpaying younger wanes. Personally, I think they ended the zero-covid policy as a method to get rid of as many elderly as they could, and they succeeded to the extent of reported tens of thousands (not enough to make a huge difference yet) but thankfully they didn't get me.
I guess if a war between America and China does happen I had better go to "On the Beach" in Australia since both China and America will become glass parking lots. Canada is too close to the expected devestation.
People leave that whole nuclear thing out of the equation.
Kind of like with Russia. Experts keep claiming how weak Putin is right now; and Putin is moving nukes around and repositioning them proving he is serious about using them. Last time he played the shell game was right before he invaded Ukraine.
Everyone knows anyone that has a large nuclear arsenal would never be stupid enough to use it. It is just for show; and keeping people from invading their country./S
All it really takes is one nutter (chances are it would be Putin or Xi. But who knows? Our recent track record of electing presidents isn't exactly stellar. Get a president that doesn't want to look weak and starts losing a war too close to reelection and poof. No checks and balances needed.) that is afraid of losing power and the whole world ends.
I agree that Russia is a more immediate danger. Putin is capable of mass murder. Xi will just wait.
"Let China sleep" (Napoleon Bonaparte)
Interesting article. Several significant takeaways:
- General officers are far more free to speak publicly than a couple decades ago. Back then, an officer whose position did not involve speaking to the public would have been disciplined for this behavior.
- Minihan said his opinion was based on a "gut feeling". He did not claim any factual basis. And yet his admittedly baseless opinion frightened a Congressperson and got wide coverage - it's even on NT!
- "An official of the Department of Defense said the general's comments 'are not representative of the department's view on China.' "
Hello Bob. Been a while. A couple of good examples were George S. Patton and Douglas MacArthur.
yes
A more recent one would be Gen McChrystal
Long time no see - and happy you're here.
Thanks to Perrie for helping me re-start.
No problem! That's what I'm here for.
Hi Bob. Missed you!
Morning Bob
We have not met but I am a hat in search of madness.
Bob is a long time member who probably has a better handle on the goings on in Europe than most people on NT.
Agreed, and for good reason. It's the answer to Baron Munchausen's "Vas you dere, Charley?" (Something it's necessary for me to have to constantly deal with because of those who've never been there but think they know what it's like.)