Why Elon Musk's Batteries Scare the Hell Out of the Electric Company
At a sagebrush-strewn industrial park outside of Reno, Nevada , bulldozers are clearing dirt for Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) s battery factory, projected to be the worlds largest.
Teslas founder, Elon Musk, sees the $5 billion facility as a key step toward making electric cars more affordable, while ending reliance on oil and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. At first blush, the push toward more electric cars looks to be positive for utilities struggling with stagnant sales from energy conservation and slow economic growth.
Yet Musks so-called gigafactory may soon become an existential threat to the 100-year-old utility business model. The facility will also churn out stationary battery packs that can be paired with rooftop solar panels to store power. Already, a second company led by Musk, SolarCity Corp. (SCTY) , is packaging solar panels and batteries to power California homes and companies including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
The mortal threat that ever cheaper on-site renewables pose comes from systems that include storage, said Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a Snowmass, Colorado-based energy consultant. That is an unregulated product you can buy at Home Depot that leaves the old business model with no place to hide.
Why Elon Musk's Batteries Scare the Hell Out of the Electric Company
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Solar panels are very common here in the Southwest. An autonomous panel/battery package could be a very big deal.
A very big deal indeed. This is most interesting.
It also scares the hell out of the oil cartels.
That has been the pattern for many decades . There have been many experimental useful concepts which were abandoned when the economics become unsustainable .
On that thought BF, in my area, gas is at 2.29, yet diesel is still sitting at 3.59...
Agreed.
If American energy policy was actually trying to improve the overall situation (rather than just shovel money to Big Oil), we would see a rising fuel tax, to keep the pump price steady, and generate some revenue for crumbling bridges.
I expect that is because diesel demand is less elastic than that for gasoline . Drivers with gasoline cars can cut back on their less important excursions . But truck drivers have deliveries they have to make .
Diesels also have microparticle emissions that are very hard to tame. Europe is tightening the rules and raising the tax rate for diesel.
Right now, the most efficient cars are hybrids with small turbo gasoline engines in combo with electric drive.
Max ,
Don't you think the idea that E. Musk is pursuing is a worthwhile concept ? His mega factory will go a long way towards at least reducing costs of the e-car .
You may not understand modern technology when you say "long long way off". We already have the technology of an ultracapacitor power system to replace our currently used electrochemical batteries, which can be 5 to 10x more powerful and lighter than conventional batteries. ( source ) It's just a matter of investment now.
That article was back in 2007 AeonPax. Here is another in 2013 which covers some additional info.
and wiki
After 7, almost 8 years, it starts reminding me of a silver mine I was once involved in.
I paid $2.199 per gallon last night for 87.
You're telling me you are not looking forward to the end of the age of oil ... but you might be premature :
That would be your opinion then. However, industry predictions say the opposite. With 60,000 unit EV's sold in the US in 2013, 400,000 unit sales are forecasted in 2014. ( source ) With such growth comes increased investment and technological breakthroughs. The writing is on the wall. We are talking about a few years here, not decades.
How OPEC reacts to this is irrelevant. However, the US oil industry has already mounted a disinformation campaign ( source ) aimed at electric cars which proves they are threatened. The same applies to renewable energy sources such as solar panels and wind generators.
The day harkening the demise of the dinosaur called the fossil fuel industry has already begun.
Max, Max, Max,
The Tesla S is more of a superior performance vehicle than many realize. As a matter of fact, it kicks ass! Head to head against many gasoline sports cars, it wins hands down. All ya need is about 75 grand and ya could have your own!
:~)
No offense Bob, but they won't need to fix the bridges if the economy flounders, which is what happens when the price of gas goes up since less people will be using them. I get your idea, but the complexity of the importance and cost of gasoline or oil is relative to everything else in our economy and can't be left out of the equation. Everything has its effect on our economy. The government already gets approximately 60 cents off every gallon.
Sixpick,
At home (my wife and I do six&six between Yuma and Calais (France)), I pay something like $8 a gallon.
So I KNOW that higher gas prices don't destroy an economy. Obviously, it would be stupid to suddenly raise fuel taxes to European levels, but...
IMHO, the socially and economically "right" policy would be four cents per gallon per month for ten years. At the end of those ten years, US pump prices would be (almost) up to current European prices...
Everyone would have time to adjust: manufacturers and consumers alike.
None of us have any idea of the extent that the vested interests will go to protect their industries and increase their profits. Of course I'm thinking of the oil and car manufacturing industries for starters.
Touche. I guess we'll have to wait and see where all the investment money goes.
Honestly, how often do you have to do that and what is the opportunity cost of maintaining such a vehicle when the vast majority of your trips are less than an hour? Most folks do not drive cross country more than once in their lives, whereas we go to work, take our kids to the doctor, and buy groceries much more frequently. Also, I do know someone who owns a Model S and his maintenance costs are way lower than those of IC cars. They are inherently simpler vehicles with less that can go wrong.
Right now I would argue that the cost of an electric is still higher than that opportunity cost, but efforts like Musk's may well reverse that equation and relegate the IC engine to enthusiasts and long-distance transportation needs only.
I agree. Tesla is the only marque that sells its cars as substitutes for IC cars; all the other manufacturers market their products as "second cars", intended to do all the low-mileage, around town driving that is most of what we do. The "first car" would handle trips.
Personally... if I could buy a 100-mile-range electric for a decent price, I'd go for it... and rent a cruiser for that exceedingly rare long trip.
bf,
I have wondered since the first day how much of Tesla's success was due to Elon Musk's talents as a snake-oil salesman... and how much to a genuinely competent technology. There is surely a lot of both.
If you're into electric car tech, you may have followed the rise... and fall... of Better Place, the swappable battery outfit. I always wondered about them in the same way as Tesla, and ultimately the real world caught up with the fast talkers.
I hope that Tesla is for real. But I'm not buying any stock in the company...
bf,
On the same topic:
What Will Tesla And Elon Musk Over Promise Next?
I think is America.. we need a 250 mile car... but I love what Tesla is doing to the market. I am a big fan of Musk!
Perrie,
Statistics say that the average American drives less than forty miles per day.
bf,
Surely!
Who would want Tesla to succeed? Only consumers... who count for nothing...
bf,
You're right, at least for the US market, where "bigger is better" is still the rule.
In Europe, where "small luxury car" is an acceptable idea, there are much lower-cost products available. VW sells an electric version of its small Polo that is quite nice, for around 20 000, which corresponds to about the same in dollars, VAT deducted.
Economically, of course, electric cars are still losers, except for special cases. Economically, nothing can beat a small-displacement turbo direct-injection gasoline engine.
And since it is what matters to you it is the only thing that matters to everyone? I commute less than five miles every day and do not even own a car at all. One of the reasons for those lower gas prices is people like me who have cut our demand to next to zero. (I can rent a car on those rare occasions I need one. Twice in 2014.)
Not everyone wants to waste 15% of their lives just travelling to and from work, you know.
Yes, and what i am stating is that you are a special case and the general case does not give a damn aboutyours. Your arguments are always prefaced or ended with how an EV will not meetyour needs, as if that should matter to the rest of us who do not require what you do.
Look at the demographics: people are leaving the exurbs and far suburbs for the cities and core suburbs. Car ownership is down period. For those who cannot meet their needs via mass transit, EVs are getting damn close to meeting their daily commuting needs, which consist of mileage totals of less than 20 a day.