Poll Shows Biden Losing Some of his 2020 Voters to Trump
Biden continues to struggle with significant declines amongst groups of voters that carried him to victory in 2020.
The key issues of the economy, the Israeli-Hamas War, the border crisis are factors among the voters surveyed
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Eight months ahead of the general election, President Joe Biden remains in a precarious position as he continues to trail former President Donald Trump in a rematch among likely voters, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll .
Amid Biden's polling troubles, two significant things stand out in the Times/Siena survey: Biden is currently losing a bloc of supporters who backed him in the 2020 election and he is virtually tied with Trump among women, a key group that backed him by 11 points that year.
Overall, Trump led Biden among likely voters 48% to 44% in the Times/Siena survey.
And despite former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's primary campaign against Trump, where she's been able to win over a chunk of GOP voters while arguing that the party needs new leadership, 97% of voters who backed the former president in 2020 say they'll do so again this year, per the survey.
However, Biden is only retaining 85% of voters who backed him in the 2020 election in the survey, with 9% of the president's 2020 supporters indicating that they'll support Trump this fall.
In an election that could be decided by close margins in a handful of swing states , any slight defection or bump in support could prove decisive for each of the contenders.
Women , who backed Biden by a 55% to 44% margin in 2020, were key to his election, along with Democratic candidates across the country as the party held the House that year and regained control of the Senate in January 2021.
In the Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden among women by a 47% to 46% margin among likely voters. Meanwhile, men backed Trump over Biden 49% to 42%.
One of Biden's biggest challenges in this election is his messaging on the economy. While the president has touted strong jobs growth and low unemployment , inflation during much of the COVID-19 pandemic ate into the pocketbooks of Americans and many voters remain pessimistic about the country's economic fortunes.
In the Times/Siena poll, 50% of likely voters rated the economy as "poor," while only 28% of voters rated it as "good" or "excellent." A little over one in five voters (22%) labeled the economy as "only fair."
There were some positive signs in the poll for Biden, though.
He had a 13-point lead (54%-41%) with voters aged 18-29, a group that has been especially critical of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war . However, Biden will still have to work to make up ground with this group, as they backed him by 24 points (60%-36%) in 2020.
The poll also showed Biden ahead among suburban voters , a key group that will play a significant role in races up and down the ballot.
Among this group, Biden led Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
Discuss the poll results - what each side needs to do to improve their standing with the identifies groups of voters.
Be civil with each other if you can.
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No way to deal with low and no information voters who are not paying attention to the metrics and are largely operating on emotion. The economy is by any measure "good", not "poor". Inflation has and is reducing, interest rates are now trending down, GDP is quite up, the stock market (and, thus, retirement accounts) is breaking new highs.
Biden's problem is that people do not feel the effects of the economy moving in the right direction. They still see mortgage rates and inflation (prices) higher than recent memory and that is basically the end of the analysis.
That said, none of this has much to do with Biden's role as PotUS. The rise and fall has been due to factors outside of the control of any PotUS. So he will get credit for a killer GDP and a very strong Bull market yet that is not his doing. Similarly he will be blamed for high interest rates and inflation which also has little to do with his actions as PotUS.
Biden can be blamed for his inexplicable inaction on the border, his irresponsible loan forgiveness acts, his lack of fiscal discipline (along with Trump and prior PotUS'), etc. But the economy is, for most factors, way beyond the pay-grade of any PotUS.
They are looking at their bank account and wondering how McDonalds became a luxury.
"But the economy is, for most factors, way beyond the pay-grade of any PotUS."
But the party in power will get blamed, regardless. The economy is just one part of Biden's lack of popularity.
Yes, the party in power is credited / blamed for the economy as I explained in my post.
Yes, the low / no information analysis that I described.
They have very good information about their own situation.
Some do, but I think most do not.
The information most consider is poor in terms of analyzing the state of the economy.
It is good for determining their feelings about the economy, but not the actual health of the economy.
low and no information voters
T G
It seems arrogant and disingenuous to describe those that disagree with you as being uniformed or stupid..
The economy is doing well on Wall Street, but still sucks on Main Street
Thanks for the perspective
Where do I define low and no information voters as those who disagree with me?
You made a cheap, gratuitous personal attack.
I made that distinction too in my comments. But I disagree that the economy sucks on main street. It did suck a year ago and is much improved now. Not great due to still inflated prices, but certainly does not suck compared with our economic history.
[Deleted]
But it does not reduce prices. Those food prices are now baked in.
No way to deal with low and no information voters who are not paying attention to the metrics and are largely operating on emotion.
Oh ya, that's right, working people shouldn't look at how much more they are spending for food & necessities, they should listen to the media.
[Deleted]
I think you know (or should now) that inflationary pressures cause a quick increase in prices but deflation does not result in a timely reduction of prices. That is, prices are slow to fall. Competition does eventually kick in as market forces seek to fill the gap between the cost to produce and the price charged. If the gap is large, competition has opportunities. But this takes time.
Regardless, a PotUS has little control over this.
Strawman. Not only did I not even hint that, my comment expressed the opposite of your tone. For example:
Funny (not humorous) how some engage in strawman arguments rather than honestly deal with what people write.
Well Said
TiG is never arrogant and/or disingenuous.
No, not at all.
No, not at all.
Appreciate your insightful comment, but Vic's comments were in line with what millions of Americans are telling politicians and pollsters.
The area that most surprised me and that could be a key factor in the 2024 election
Women , who backed Biden by a 55% to 44% margin in 2020, were key to his election
(but now)
In the Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden among women by a 47% to 46% margin among likely voters.
The Dems have shown that they have no respect for biological women, having cast their lot with the pretend kind.
The left has lost numbers in just about every demographic and group during the Biden regime.
I would have thought the abortion issue would have intensified women's support of Biden, and I didn't see the word "immigration" mentioned in the article.
Buzz
I am sure that reproduction rights are important to many voters and will surely play a role in voting decisions
Believe it or not IMMIGRATION is now the number 1 issue.
Don't worry, democrats will find a way that it is not about issues but about stuffing ballot boxes. Maybe this time Trump will get 90 million votes and they'll come up with 100 million.
I hope so.
That's not my quotation that you are addressing. If what you say about how the voting goes in your "Ideal democracy" that America is trying to sell around the world, it may as well just play on Saturday Night Live.
Believe it or not IMMIGRATION is now the number 1 issue.
I came across this last night
2024 Issues ranked
Inflation 20%
Healthcare 14%
Immigration 12%
Economy 11%
Climate 8%
Most important voter issues U.S. 2024 | Statista
My ideal democracy died long ago.
According to Gallup:
Immigration Surges to Top of Most Important Problem List (gallup.com)
Thanks for sharing - pick your poll I guess
Gallop is usually pretty good
My ideal democracy died long ago.
As I think Churchill once said democracy is the worst form of government except for all the other forms of government.
We have always struggled and always will because the US is not simply a democracy, but also a republic
I saw this on BING AI Chat
The United States of America is both a republic and a democracy . Let’s delve into the nuances:
Republic :
Democracy :
Hybrid Democratic Republic :
In summary, the United States combines elements of both a republic and a democracy , making it a constitutional federal republic with a strong democratic tradition at various levels of governance
Don't think I'm cheering - I'm really sorry to see it.
No sane, decent person would vote for the former 'president'.
No sane, decent person would vote for the former 'president'.
Do you mean Obama, Bush, Clinton?
Always appreciate your insight but sane or insane was not one of the categories of voters that were polled
You forgot Jimmy Carter.
Never ceases to amaze me.
Biden is NEVER wrong.
Just ask him or one of his Bidenettes.
Sparty
Bidenettes - hilarious sort of the opposition to Trumpsters I guess
A play on words of a popular commercial of my youth for Goobers and Raisinets.
The Progressives have spent the last four years claiming MAGA is a movement of white christian nationalists and that's what Trump is appealing to. It's their favorite buzz word. But the white vote hasn't moved. Trump is now getting 35% of the black votes, which essentially accounts for the 10 point swing between the current vote split and 2020.
John
I agree that it is not a huge number, but in some of the swing states (if history is any indication) a small, but significant swing in a couple of voting groups will be the difference in winning and losing
Personally, I think the economy is humming right along fine, what I think the voters are looking at and calling it the economy is what most are seeing as the cost of living , what they are paying in their day to day lives with expenses they can't avoid.
I said before that this election cycle when it comes to the economy , it will fall down to kitchen table politics,what people have to spend to live as they have.
Doesn't the cost of living increase dollar-wise at least incrementally year after year? There is always going to be a cost attributed to inflation - does the car you own cost the same as it did 10 years ago? Are people generally so stupid as to blame a POTUS for that?
Buzz I think most people know that, what I think is happening is what was once called "sticker shock".
Years ago when making my financial plans for now, I got some advice to plan for double the annual cost of living increase, back then 3% annually was normal to high, so one should add 6% to their savings people that could would add7.5% to be safe.
Then again, I have been accused of being able to make a penny scream like it's getting a tittie twister in sub zero temps.
Buzz
I hardly would characterize the average citizen being raked over the fiscal coals by shrinkflation, high interest rates for loans and mortgages, steadily rising costs of consumables and living pay check to pay check as stupid.
The president is indeed not responsible for all of the ill of the economy nor should he be so bold as to try and credit for those things going well (i.e. constant crowing about Bidenomics
We are seeing every day goods (food etc) with steadily rising prices and shrinking sizes - a double whammy.
As opposed to stupid the average citizen is quite astute and sees the that a good economy for wall street does not directly translate to a good economy for main street.
“Climbing rents in recent years propelled US cost burdens to staggering new heights: in 2022, half of all US renters were cost burdened. This all-time high of 22.4 million renter households spent more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities. And while rental markets are finally cooling, evictions have risen, the country is seeing the highest homelessness counts on record, and the need for rental assistance is greater than ever.”
And …. Another mortgage bubble ripe for explosion if things don’t improve soon.
Yowsa!
Absolutely.
@ Mark, Robert and Drinker
I'll make this clear to all of you. I did not say the people were just plain stupid. I said that I think they are stupid if they blame the POTUS for it, especially a POTUS that is blocked by congress for anything positive he wants to do. Inflation and the economy is a WORLD-WIDE problem, not just an American one, and nobody can control a world-wide problem individually.
Are the folks that celebrate “Bidenomics” stupid? Did he lower unemployment and raise GDP?
I don't know anything about "Bidenomics". Of course it's not stupid to appreciate the lowering of unemployment and increasing the GDP.
If you're depending on 35% of the black vote for trump to win you're fucked
Fucking eh!
John
Well put and I agree that an increase in his percentage of the black vote alone will not be enough to swing the entire election.
I see this poll result more of an indication of where the candidates and their entourages will be focused through November
You guys need 95% of it
Biden will be able to claim he got 100% of the black vote. You have to remember, if you don’t vote for Biden you ain’t black.
Right now he can only depend on about 80%