US Oil Production More Than Any Country Ever, Unlikely to Be Surpassed: EIA
Category: News & Politics
Via: kavika • 2 months ago • 133 commentsBy: Filip De Mott (Markets Insider)
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Filip De Mott 2024-03-11T14:14:38Z Filip De Mott Share icon An curved arrow pointing right. Share Facebook Icon The letter F. Facebook Email icon An envelope. It indicates the ability to send an email. Email Twitter icon A stylized bird with an open mouth, tweeting. Twitter Link icon An image of a chain link. It symobilizes a website link url. Copy Link Save Article Icon A bookmark Save Read in app Getty Images Redeem now
- The US has been history's biggest producer for six years in a row, the Energy Information Administration said.
- No global competitor is likely to break the US record in the near term.
- But the EIA expects growth to slow dramatically, and reaccelerate in 2025.
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US crude production has surpassed every record in history for six years in a row, the US Energy Information Administration wrote on Monday. Its latest peak reached in 2023 is unlikely to be broken by any near-term competitor, it said.
Including condensate, last year's US crude production averaged 12.9 million barrels per day, eclipsing the 2019 global record of 12.3 million barrels per day.
A monthly record also occurred in December, at over 13.3 million b/d.
It's a remarkable turnaround from a 62-year low hit in 2008, S&P Global previously noted, and potentially has come to surprise analysts. But despite a 69% decrease in active rigs since 2014, technological advancements have made US production much more efficient, the EIA cited in a separate report.
Further leading 2023's oil boom were private firms, with the top five companies representing a third of average annual Permian crude production growth since 2019.
Now, global competition has a low chance of reaching these same record levels, the agency said.
Altogether, the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia made up 40% of 2023's global crude production. But output from both competitors was limited last year, due to OPEC+ production cuts, as well as voluntary curbs.
Instead, Russia's annual production peaked in 2019 at 10.8 million b/d, while Saudi Arabia reached a record of 10.6 million b/d in 2022. In January, the state-run oil firm Aramco ended plans to expand capacity, citing the green energy transition.
"By comparison, the next three largest producing countries—Canada, Iraq, and China—combined produced 13.1 million b/d in 2023, only slightly more than what was produced in the United States alone," the EIA wrote.
But whether the US can continue to beat its own record is a growing uncertainty. The success of private operations last year fueled a merger spree, as public firms raced to increase their foothold of the Permian Basin — the epicenter of US crude production.
This could flatten US production, analysts said, as public companies bring on different financial priorities. For instance, this could mean rig count reduction, and less drilling activity.
For its part, the EIA expects production to slow dramatically, with last year's November peak set to be surpassed in February 2025. For this year, production is forecast to rise to 13.21 million b/d.
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Ha, something good among all the so called bad news for the country.
when trump says he's going to drill, drill, drill. he really means in places that are protected without any EPA regulations.
I think you meant to say WHOM he drills?
isn't it too soon to deflect to lauren bobert?
Probably and probably off topic as well so I'll desist.
Ya think, but funny as well.
I think blowberts CD4 primary is at the end of june and she just got her trump endorsement. although she's shown her willingness in the media to face stiff opposition, she'll still be trekking to mar-a-lardo to ride the mushroom at least once between now and then.
blowbert's spitting nails in the media over seeing the exit ramp the colorado GOP just put in her path.
she's going after the colorado secretary of state now.
... thinking that a recall will stop the state prosecution of tina peters and her own involvement.
... only 37 years old and already staring into the political abyss. tsk, tsk, tsk ...
Then why does gasoline cost so much at the pump?
depends on where you are , and where your asking about geographically .
what i have seen in the US is price differences are affected by location , how long it takes to truck in , that increases costs at the pump , federal state and local taxes also can and do affect price at the pump .
world wide , many things can affect the cost in other parts of the world , for instance if a country shuts down exports such as rusia has due to its war , other countries can pick up the slack but their will be a difference in shipping costs at the terminal end and also at the pump . i read today 2-3 petro storage or refineries in russia got hit by Ukraini drones overnight causing fires and shut downs , so where ever that product was destined for isnt going to get their fuels and will have to be looking for alternate places to get them .
as has been pointed out , the switch over from a winter blend to a spring or summer blend of ruel is likely taking place right now at many US refineries and terminals , when they do that they try and guage how much they will have to have on hand before the new blend starts flowing to the storage tanks .if they misjudge or dont have enough , as with any comodoty that gets short , the price goes up.
A very good and very complicated question.
The price of crude oil is the main factor, but there are other factors such as local taxes and regulations (e.g. California), distance from refineries (distribution costs), local market conditions (market varies by location) and of course the refining costs (a complex scenario in itself given the mix of crude weights and the retooling of refineries).
Crude oil pricing is based first on economics (supply and demand). And we have just seen the effects of world politics (e.g. Putin's war) and how that can dramatically affect the supply chain. Then of course there is the varying costs of extraction (depending upon the current source). Finally, but importantly, we have the wildcard factor of market speculation. This is investors trying to predict all the other factors on the planet which determine availability of crude and the impact that has on the price of crude.
It's 2.59 to 2.72 here in Dallas
I cannot complain about that
For a number of reasons, the first being not all oil is equal.
Actually is come down significantly compared to its fairly recent high prices.
meh, still pretty tough to swallow if you're old enough to remember filling your tank for $5 or $10 ...
When gasoline was cheaper than water lol.
$20 fills my tank, buys a bag of weed, a 6 pack, and enough money left to get another victim into the drive in...
$20 might fill your lawnmower tank.
Every fifty years the value of money pretty much must roll over another decimal point. It is figured in that inflation be about 2.5%. The trick is not to eliminate inflation but to control it. Only in the worst of times do we suffer "Deflation".
Who controls inflation?
circa 1971...
I left the Drive In one winter night had to stop for gas but we were both broke after buying snacks.
Kept the car running to keep the heater going.
Found 27 cents under the floor mats and the drivers seat
Got almost two gallons, more than enough to get home.
Good times...
With this damn continuing resolution, I’m forced to do the same to the couches on the Pentagon E-Ring to keep my equipping programs going.
our drive-ins issued heaters that plugged in at the speaker stands
I still stash the silver change in my console
cheapest I ever remember paying was 19.9¢ per gallon. gas war!
I remember 18.9 on one corner vs 18.7 on the other corner and a line to get it at 18.7.
Of course they were upselling wiper blades and tires at the same time, lol.
She objected to the odor they created. It would ruin her hair etc.
funny, I don't remember that particular odor at all...
$3 each, $120 for the set... now $20 and $800 or more...
it's so busy with tankers where I'm at, it's like an interstate truck stop in the middle of bfe...
Increased drilling equals increased methane and carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere which equals increased AGW.
We didn't have a winter in my neck of the woods this year.
Didn't have to light the stove or hit the 4x4 switch on my truck.
Not complaining, just commenting on the strange phenomena.
Too bad we do not have decent refining capability to go with it.
Yup, we do need to increase our refining capacity to match or exceed the amount being drilled.
If we did, we would probably sure have much lower gas costs.
But that would decrease company profits and their excuses for increasing prices.
looks like you answered your own question. you don't think big oil figured out how to manipulate supply and demand to maximize profits decades ago? whose side are they on again? who makes sure they get corporate welfare and minimized regulations and restrictions?
Yes, it would they will always be in the drivers seat (pun intended) so to speak.
Yep, problem is it’s a NIMBY proposition. Big time.
Here in bumfuk Northern Michigan we used to have some of cheapest gas in the country. Refinery just 100 miles south. Then people NIMBY’d it out of existence. Now we are regularly above the US average.
Love me some NIMBY …..
Don't have the NIMBY problem here in my state, one refinery to the north of me does diesel, one to the south does gas.
Gas av price is $3.08/9, just filled up at the last place here that has it for$2.89/9, also got an extra 10 gals for the yard equipment.
Main issue here is the mandatory shut down for requirement to maintain the EPA required equipment and containment, but no worries . Neither plant does biofuel.
You might double check that. Refineries have a habit of shutting down for mysterious maintenance reasons, while blaming the EPA. Most of the things which the EPA requires, do not necessitate a closure.
Don't they shut down when switching from winter blend to summer and vice versa? Seems to me that would be an EPA requirement and a good time for said maintenance.
Yes, they do.
Personally, I don't find that mysterious at all, do you?
Nope
I don't work on the industry, so really don't give a rat f*ck why they shut down if the reasons given are plausible.
Most of the diesel I know is contracted to go to the west coast, the gas from the south stays local and doesn't have the different state required additives, thus making it cheaper. Even the non ethanol blend here is cheaper.
My truck has one blend. It’s called Diesel. Of course there are plenty of options for the DEF fluid the EPA required to make your air stink less.
Hint of the day. Use Ethanol free gas for your small engines. Mowers, blowers, chainsaws etc. You won’t regret it.
have you noticed those throw away mowers from wally world and the like lack an oil drain plug?
( just got done loading up 20 rounds for the new meat getter )
Never ever put ethanol gas in an outboard motor...
Nope, haven’t been to Wally World in years but I know what you’re talking about.
New smoke pole?
I know, same thing. Probably okay if you burn a lot of gas but if it sits for any long period. Same problem but good for the small engine repair business.
No idea, why don't you look it up? If they're changing blends it would be a scheduled switch over, not a "maintenance" one.
No need. I have known it for years........................
So you don't care if the reason is bullshit or not? If their given reason is a lie and the actual reason is just to jack up pricing?
Remember plausible does not equal truthful.
How about a link then? I'd love to read about it.
Not gonna do your homework for you.
Maintenance reasons are usually not “mysterious.” Things wear out and break. Upkeep is required. New EPA rules CAN require modifications that mean shutdowns. Owners of refineries have no desire to have unnecessary shutdowns. When shut down, the refinery is making ZERO dinero and in fact are going into a hole paying for said maintenance.
Having worked shutdowns, they cram as much work as they can into the short timeframe available. Shutdowns are negative cash flow propositions and work chaos. Usually not a planned punishment to some “imagined” market or government driven narrative.
actually , no i dont , just because i dont work in the industry , doesnt mean i dont know about it and certain OSHA and other things that need to be complied with for safety reasons , even if those that know nothing and thnk things are bullshit reasons to increase profits .
I can think of numerous reasons for shutting down flow to comply with safety and some have to do with keeping things up to numerous government regulations .
If all you want to do is argue , i know how to remedy that .
So you have nothing to back up your statement? I will disregard it then.
Yes I do. I have knowledge. Something you seem to be lacking on the subject.
My only knowledge on the subject is from articles which I can reference, your knowledge is apparently non-referenceable.
Ruger 6mm creedmore, used it last hunting season, filled 4 out of 6 tags, working up some heavier rounds to increase distance, it's shooting sub MOA out to 600 yrds, but after that the wind starts making it drift, and if the wind ever stopped in Wyoming, everyone would fall over.
Awesome!
Then why did you ask?
Sounds like you're backpedaling now.
Not at all. I thought it was well known.
So where's the link?
“Traditionally, gasoline prices are at their lowest during the first week of February and then begin to climb, often peaking right before Memorial Day. Seasonal increases in demand plus a transition to unique fuel blends put pressure on gas prices each spring.”
and/or reference/citation?
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For anyone that doesn’t know but wishes too:
“Every spring, news reports announce gas refineries are down for maintenance while transitioning from winter-blend to summer-blend gasoline, and soon after prices at the pump go up several cents a gallon. When fall rolls around, the opposite occurs, and prices come down slightly. Why is there a change, and why can’t we just continue using the cheaper winter blend?”
So you don't have the reference as Ozzwald did for his claims, you have nothing to back up your claims.
Got it.
Thanks but I was reluctant. Appreciate it my friend.
See 2.1.36
You have said many times you don't open links. Why the interest?
Those who make the claim should back them up.
see 2.1.37
No problem.
So there are now 2 links but the bitching continues.
Exactly
[deleted]
You seem to have a fan.
[deleted]
Good info.
I'm still bewildered by people that take their cars in and want the winter air removed from their tires and replaced with summer air.
Especially if they are already riding on nitrogen.
what I noticed most when I was in mexico last year was that diesel was half the price of unleaded at the pump.
Indeed, and that is exactly why it won’t happen. Currently there is no incentive for companies to increase refining capacity, not while they are making greater and greater profits with what they have. Why increase your own costs while reducing profits?
We finally disagree on something.
"Drill baby drill" is the most idiotic statement ever.
Anthropogenic global climate change will end us.
Mankind is causing the next extinction level event.
Almost glad I won't be around to experience the worst of it.
"Told you so" would be a hollow victory.
Here in my home state of Arizona down on the AZ/Mexico border, price of gas right now is about $3.89 a gallon with diesel even higher. Arizona has no oil refinery capability and all gas has to be shipped in from California or Texas, which drives the price up.
So, gas is $3.20 a gallon at BJ's in The Bronx because The Bronx had lots of oil refineries so our gas doesn't have to be shipped in?
It sounds like you are being gouged...
or Russia causing another Chernobyl or worse using multiple thermonuclear weapons
because of .... a history of imperialism by the commies?
Enough to make one's head spin.
Everyone's worried about nukes.
Might be time to concider the other 2 items that make up NBC WMD, biological and chemical.
I seem to remember Russian troops(Special forces) used a chemical agent when those Chechen terrorists took over that theater, killed the terrorists and most of the hostages.
The goal was to put them all to sleep by introducing the gas into the ventilation system, might have used too much.
I've seen a lot of conflicting reports about the aftermath of an EMP pulse as well. From worse than a nuke to not that big of a deal.
You have to keep in mind that 54.36% of U.S. trade in oil, gasoline and natural gas has been exported. So we do not need refining ability for over half our production.
We do if we want to stop importing oil and oil products while burning hydrocarbons to transport here.
In 2022, the United States imported about 8.33 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 80 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,and%20diesel%20fuel%2C%20and%20biofuels.
Much of the oil we import is a type that we do not produce. Also you have to remember that oil is sold on the international market, this is pure capitalism and US companies are sometimes outbid for it.
Yes, we import oil that we can refine because we don’t have enough refineries (see 2 and 2.1).
Exactly.
No, much of the world’s oil is nationally owned.
The US of A is now the world's number 1 exporter.
WE'RE #1! WE'RE #1! WE'RE #1!
Makes me sad to be an American.
Stiffen your upper lip.
Can't event keep my cock stiff these days.
Which makes me mean, angry and dangerous
I was also wondering about that.
Apparently refineries take a rather long time to build. So from the time it becomes obvious that we need more refining capacity to when a new refinery is operational takes longer than one might expect.
"Apparently refineries take a rather long time to build."
Yep, not including being hugely expensive as well, also including the environmental impact and ever changing EPA restrictions making the companies involved even more reluctant to build new or even upgrade existing facilities sitting idle.
In addition, they are very expensive to just retool to deal with different grades of oil (sweet vs sour spectrum).
Very much agree with you.
Unfortunately, the EPA is rather toothless.
Used to work for the EPA and retired in disgust.
Short term profit always trumps long term health.
Trump hired the worst polluter ever and the #1 denier of AGW to run the EPA. It hasn't recovered.
Biden pisses me off on this matter as well.
On this we agree. The EPA was in fact a total cluster flock disaster under Trump's leadership.
And yet the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) remains at its lowest level in over 40 years. After being at near record levels prior to his administration.
Seems inconsistent with strategic goals considering such high production rates.
[deleted]
[deleted]
Despite many folks love of conspiracy theories, the price of commodities (including oil) is governed by supply and demand.
Or perhaps more accurately-- the perceived supply and demand-- as well as traders best guesses as to future supply and demand...
Not so long ago prices were significantly higher. So taking oil out of the SSR would make more available-- increasing the supply and therefore lowering prices.
Not building up the SPR when production is up isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s fact and it’s bad policy. Policy that Biden owns
So you would rather trash Biden and pay more at the pump? Why do you think the reserves exist?
As noted, not increasing the SPR when supply is high is ill advised and bad policy. Biden owns that policy.
Full stop ….
Why? The US is energy independent and producing more than any other country!
The answer is in the title.
We could try to have an intelligent conversation on the meaning of “Strategic” and “Reserve” but I’m afraid it would not bear fruit for our dear readers on the left.
Especially the ones who didn’t live through the early 70’s oil embargo. Guess what country US support of, started that whole debacle? Try not to Google it for the answer.
Different people have different goals-- politicians, stock traders, etc. And goals can change.
And that what makes a market!
(If all the people who influence the price of all all had the same goals-- or the same perceptions-- you wouldn't be able to buy or sell any stocks, futures, derivatives, etc.)
My own beliefs are in my song
The butcher, the banker, the drummer and then
Makes no difference what group I'm in
The green one for living with
A fat one tryin' to be a skinny one
Different strokes for different folks
And so on and so on and scooby-dooby-dooby
We got to live together
True, Biden’s policy has been to use the SPR in an attempt to artificially lower energy prices. Not add to the SPR during record production rates.
Thats bad policy by definition for what we call a SPR. Perhaps he should change the the name to PCPR. Politically convenient petroleum reserve ….
I feel the same way!
(But unfortunately it seems that more and more people don't agree with that . . . )
That's assuming that the current administration has anything in the way of consistent strategic goals in mind to begin with. Seems to me that for the last 3+ years they have not had much of a clue.
By all metrics the USA is doing much better under Biden than it did under Trump.
By all metrics the USA did much better under Obama than it did under Trump.
Trump inherited a great economy from Obama and immediately turned it to shit. Giving tax breaks to his 1% millionaire/billionaire buddies was the worst thing he could have done for the economy and for the country.
True...
Shit indeed.
False. but the economy Trump inherited improved at relatively the same rate as it did under Obama.
It certainly contributed to the national debt and one can say that Covid derailed everything at the wrong time,
a perfect storm, if you will.
Reality isn't just a few statistics to prove someone wrong, it is the long view with the right factors weighed
correctly, hence why we are doomed to bounce along the highway of history, because so few ever get it right.
Pretty sure that Michelle Obama should be dragged screaming and kicking into being POTUS.
Never really trusted anybody who actually wanted the job.
Where's a Jack Ryan when we really need one?
Who do you think has run for the job while not wanting it?
Why are you using cjcold quotes 4.4.1 as mine?
Did you not quote him also?
Am I not allowed to agree with you?
that must trip up the whole contrarian shtick...
Most of the crude from the USA is sweeter (lighter, less Sulphur). Historically, the USA refineries were set mostly to refine the sour (heavier, more Sulphur) crude oil because it was inexpensive. This sour crude comes from OPEC and also from Canada.
Our refineries are slowly changing to process more sweet crude. Smart move, of course, because that means we can make more use of our own natural resources rather than export same while importing sour from nations that do not share our interests.
at least a dozen parked off the jetty down here and they rotate in and out pretty fast.
16 this morning, and an empty LNG tanker...