Helene hit Trump strongholds in Georgia and North Carolina. It could swing the election.
Category: News & Politics
Via: vic-eldred • 2 months ago • 22 commentsBy: By Ariel Wittenberg, Avery Ellfeldt and Thomas Frank
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Hurricane Helene hit especially hard in heavily Republican areas of Georgia and North Carolina — a fact that could work to Donald Trump’s disadvantage in the two swing states.
Research has shown that major disasters can influence both voter turnout and voter preference. And Helene has pushed this contest into novel territory: It’s the first catastrophic event in U.S. history to hit two critical swing states within six weeks of a presidential election, based on a POLITICO’s E&E News analysis of data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The challenge for Trump: The parts of western North Carolina and eastern Georgia that were flooded by the monster storm are largely Republican. In 2020, he won 61 percent of the vote in the North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster after Helene. He won 54 percent of the vote in Georgia’s disaster counties.
“There’s going to be a lot of [voting] alterations, and it probably is going to affect turnout,” said Andy Jackson, director of the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity, a free-market think tank in North Carolina.
Now, both states face crucial decisions in the next few days about how to help people register and vote after massive flooding ripped away roads, shuttered towns and dispersed residents. Those include whether to extend next week’s voter registration deadlines, grant more time for voters to cast absentee ballots, and set up new polling places in areas where floods destroyed roads.
State records show that nearly 40,000 absentee ballots were mailed to voters in the 25 North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster following Helene. Fewer than 1,000 have been returned.
In eastern Georgia’s heavily Democratic Richmond County, three of four early voting sites appear to be undamaged, county elections chief W. Travis Doss Jr. said Friday. Doss’ staff has also reached out to all 43 election day sites to determine their status, but has not heard back from about 30 of them due to power and internet outages.
“Until we get out there to assess for power and what not, I’m not sure” what the situation will be, Doss said. “Right now, of course, our immediate concerns were absentee and voting registration, and then the next step is early voting, and then the next step is voting day.”
Helene hit some predominantly Democratic communities hard too, adding to the uncertainty. In North Carolina, “Buncombe [County] was affected in really bad ways, and that is a liberal bastion,” said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University. “And Watauga is in really bad shape, also a blue leaning county.”
Overall, Helene could “dramatically change who is in the electorate,” Cooper said.
“In a state like North Carolina where margins matter, then every little tweak to the electorate could be the tweak that makes the difference,” Cooper added. “It’s right on the razor’s edge between red and blue.”
County elections offices in North Carolina — five of which remained closed Thursday — will assess damage to early voting sites and polling stations to determine “which facilities won’t be available,” Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said this week.
When the North Carolina Legislature meets Wednesday, it could give counties money for emergency polling places and extend both the Oct. 11 registration deadline and the Election Day deadline for mail-in ballots to be received.
And in Georgia, where Monday is the last day to register to vote, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said in a statement that “physical infrastructure” will be in place when early voting starts Oct. 15. Counties “having to relocate early voting locations” must notify voters, Raffensperger added.
After past disasters, states have similarly extended deadlines for registering to vote and submitting absentee ballots, opened new polling places, and allowed displaced residents to vote by email or fax. Republicans have at times opposed those efforts, including after the Covid pandemic.
But such actions have had varied results, according to studies that are gaining prominence as six states from Florida to Virginia deal with damage from Helene.
“You need to do everything possible to erect emergency polling places in generally the same places voters are used to voting,” says Kevin Morris, a voting policy scholar at the Brennan Center for Justice.
A 2022 study by Morris found that voter turnout fell below historical averages in the heavily Republican Panhandle counties of Florida after Hurricane Michael demolished the area in October 2018. Although Florida made it easier to vote by absentee ballots, voters were confused by the state’s moves to close and consolidate polling places. They weren’t sure where to go on Election Day.
“If [a voter’s] house is damaged or whatever else and they realize suddenly their polling place has moved, then maybe that’s the straw that makes it too much for them to vote,” Morris told E&E News. “A lot of the decreased turnout was attributable to the closure of polling places around the Panhandle.”
After Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina in September 2018, the state extended the registration deadline and let counties relocate voting sites.
But in 2020, when the elections board relaxed absentee voting requirements amid the pandemic, GOP lawmakers said the board had overstepped its authority and later changed state election rules. One change ended a grace period that allowed mail-in ballots to be received three days after Election Day.
“There’s definitely a layer of politics on top of any decision they make given what happened after Covid,” said Chris Cooper, a professor at Western Carolina University who focuses on Southern politics and elections.
Other election-year disasters do not appear to have directly affected the outcomes of previous presidential races.
Hurricane Sandy struck uncontested states such as Connecticut, New York and New Jersey in late October in 2012, and then-President Barack Obama won all three. (Obama did arguably gain political benefits from his administration’s handling of the storm, which drew praise at the time from Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.)
Hurricane Matthew, in October 2016, hit only one contested state — Florida — and spread damage along the Atlantic Coast, a mix of Democratic and Republican areas.
But overall, research shows that disasters affect voter turnout.
Sandy hit the tristate area one week before the 2012 presidential election, leading some New York voters to cast ballots in makeshift voting tents powered by generators in neighborhoods that didn’t have electricity.
Decisions by New Jersey officials to keep voting accessible to storm victims proved more controversial.
The Republican lieutenant governor at the time, Kim Guadagno, ruled that anyone who was displaced by Sandy could be designated an overseas voter, allowing them to cast ballots by fax and email. The decision overwhelmed county governments by suddenly inundating them with thousands of fax and email applications.
A 2014 Rutgers Law School report criticized Guadagno’s decision, saying that remote voting caused “chaos” and made electronic votes vulnerable to hacking.
“Although emergency action was warranted, Internet and email voting was not the solution,” report author Penny Venetis said at the time.
Another study found that Sandy “made little difference” in determining whether people in New York City would vote, partly because voters were highly motivated to reelect Obama.
When people see an election as “historic” or potentially having “long-lasting effects” on their community, “they are willing to endure costs such as low temperatures, long lines, and even traveling to distant polling places,” the researchers found.
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State records show that nearly 40,000 absentee ballots were mailed to voters in the 25 North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster following Helene. Fewer than 1,000 have been returned.
The RNC must take action to get those ballots returned and counted.
The good news is that it's unlikely that not very many ballots were lost in the mail, and that there is still a month to go. The devastation hit both the democrats and the Republicans equally hard and the blame for the Bien/Harris governments abysmal response will be squarely on them as incompetent idiots, as if they didn't know what was coming.
Then there is the little matter of FEMA apparently running out of emergency funds, and civilians and volunteers having to step and help as best they can.
Keep digging boys
Trump will lose if we can't find those dammed mail in ballots
That's kind of ironic after all of the GOP crying about the evil of mail in ballots/
I wonder how much they're worried about voting right now.
Basically zero %. Most homes are uninhabitable, no water or power and most businesses are in the same boat so no one is working except government, FEMA and churches and other emergency services, mostly from outside of NC
Maybe God doesnt like Trump as much as he thought.
It is said that the devil likes to laugh...
FEMA is performing horribly,,,,,
but hey..
The U.S. is at the forefront of humanitarian response to the growing crisis in Lebanon, announcing nearly $157 million in assistance today. We are committed to supporting those in need and delivering essential aid to displaced civilians, refugees and the communities hosting them- Joe Biden
And the 320 million for the Pier disaster in Gaza.
But Americans in rural counties.. Biden says Fuck em. Let Musk and DeSantis do the work.
Um, DeSantis said he got all he needed from the feds and the Biden admin was offering aid before the hurricane even hit. Do you just blindly believe all the BS that falls out of trumps
[✘] Fact checking is your friend.
DeSantis has been sending aid to other states. Pay attention.
Congress ignored disaster relief requests. Now, calls begin to return for Helene recovery
Read more at:
Desantis recalled those resources and his Nat Guard and volunteer Sheriffs to clean up Pinellas and their barrier Islands.
Milton wasn't a federal secret, maybe DeSantis should have been paying attention.
DeSantis Defends Decision to Send Resources Out of Florida Instead of Clearing Debris Ahead of Hurricane Milton (msn.com)
I noted that Asheville, North Carolina, was hit particularly hard and suffered considerably. Asheville was the scripted locale for the movie "The Longest Ride", so I hope that Luke Collins' ranch and the Ruth and Ira Levinson Art Museum have not taken too bad a hit. Black Mountain College Museum & Arts Center was also a key location.
LINK -> Where was The Longest Ride filmed? (giggster.com)
My family had two homes in Ashville, one in Leicester and one in Hendersonville. We always chose high ground so the homes escaped flooding but the two ridge top properties were trashed by the winds, are without power and will need new roofing. No word on the other two. All are on their own wells with septic. We could run water off of car batteries or solar.
Most of the film you mention was filmed in Wilmington NC with the mountainous scenery all being Ashville proper and the Black Mountain Museum. The museum escaped damage but is cutoff from everything by landslides which destroyed several roads.
Arts District, Decades in the Making, in Ruins After Helene - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
The River Walk Arts District is essentially gone. Almost two miles of microbreweries, small art galleries, eateries gone.
Will Asheville's once-booming riverfront art district ever recover from Helene? | Reuters
Sorry about the property damage, hope everyone is safe and unharmed.
My wife and I got back to Ashville last Spring after years. Very sad to think of all the deaths and devastation.
Few know the challenges of disaster relief in general or the specific challenges in mountious, remote regions.
Thanks everyone is accounted for. We are so dependent on these phones and forget they need to be charged.
how can we do that with out power unless there's a bit of solar - we had solar Ring Cameras my grandson figured out a way to charge phones from the Ring unit or the batteries.
I posted this else where - Ashville is cut off from the west as 40 to 26 was cut by an "undetermined number " of landslides - I detested driving that bit of road at night.
Roads closed in Asheville due to floods and mudslides 1 2 3 4 :
but no worries, everyone's typical reaction to the storm warnings was to stock up on TP, beer and charcoal.
LoL, the dockworker 3 day strike did that here. News reported long lines at Costco, and BJ's. WALMART was out of TP except for some unknown brand of TP.
I treated us to a bidet several weeks ago so no worries on the back end.
I'm unable to open your links but I've seen the news about Asheville elsewhere.
The Longest Ride ends with the most perfect good Karma I've ever seen in a movie.
Glad all are okay. I've seen ads recently for fueled generators for home use, the ad makes a big point about the increased power outages. I have a friend in Barbados, and when a hurricane hit the island last year she had no power problem because she had just installed roof solar panels, and she had power when nobody around her did. Of course, your government wants to make it harder for people to afford solar panels with its tariffs and bans - it's better that the food in their freezers rot and communication is more difficult.
Problems buying TP? Haven't the leaves started falling yet? LOL
Perhaps the RNC could send Tina Peters to oversee the ballot collection before she starts her prison sentence.