Nate Silver gives Trump new probability high of victory
By: Brady Knox (Washington Examiner - Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress the President and the Federal Government)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Election analyst Nate Silver gave former President Donald Trump a record-high probability of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state.
Silver's current odds give Trump a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, 53% for Wisconsin, 77% for Arizona, 75% for North Carolina, 68% for Georgia, and 61% for Nevada.
The new probability total is a nearly five-point boost for Trump since Thursday, when he was given a 58.2% probability, itself a boost from the 52.4% a week prior. The prediction shows a further eroding of Harris's honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.
In a Substack post, Silver explained that the new poll was such bad news for Harris due to the large sample size and reliability of the poll, which he ranks as the second best. He said the new poll "confirms the model's view that there's been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race."
The election analyst zeroed in on perceptions that Harris is too progressive as especially alarming for Democrats — the poll found that 47% of likely voters believe that Harris is too liberal, compared to 32% who see Trump as too conservative.
"I'm not a messaging-and-tactics guy like Dan Pfieffer, but I'm not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception," he wrote. "Her convention speech was aggressively centrist and aimed at male voters, which I thought was smart. But there's a track record here of progressive policy advocacy on the 2019 campaign trail and in her voting record in the Senate."
Her attempt to mitigate this issue presents a problem in itself, Silver argued.
"The flip-flopping may explain why Harris has been weirdly reluctant to do media hits or articulate policy specifics," he continued. "This strategy may have worked well enough when she was riding high off the vibes of the Democrats' candidate swap, but it's causing her more problems now."
The New York Times/Sienna poll interviewed 1,695 registered voters nationwide from Sept. 3-6, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
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Nate Silver is not a pollster anymore, he is a media figure that has increasingly been drifting to the right. He is heavily into crypto and the whole "tech bros" mentality, which means JD Vance and Elon and the rest.
Nonetheless, what we see here is what might happen if the US media continues to cover Trump as if he is fit for office. Remember where you heard it first.
I shudder at the thought of another trump 'presidency' with those assholes and scumbags thrown into the mix.
Silver, another one who has gone over to the dark side. Makes me think of Bill Maher - I've never been a fan, never really watched his show but from what I hear over the years it sounds like he's gone over to the dark side also.
Check this out from Friday's (September 7th) prescient show about what you are writing about Bill Maher. It is spread out across the entirety of the 9 minutes.
New Rule: Liberal in Theory I Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
He never was.
OMG!
Oh for shame. A sell-out for fortune, fame, and a life of luxury. Thank you for exposing the 'sell-out'! Nate Silver's credibility just shot to 'hell.'
The dailykos is all you need to know.
In other words, we demand complete fealty from everyone.
Got it.
www.salon.com /2024/09/06/nate-silver-faces-backlash-for-pro-model-skewing/
Nate Silver, former FiveThirtyEight modeler, faces backlash for model skewing
3-4 minutes 9/6/2024
Nate Silver speaks at "On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018" Midterm Election Panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City. (Krista Kennell/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)
Nate Silver, the celebrity statistician who gained notoriety for his FiveThirtyEight election models, is facing backlash over alleged skewing in his new model.
Silver left the ABC-owned company and launched his own Substack, the Silver Bulletin , last year. Since then, he’s become increasingly critical of the FiveThirtyEight projection and its behind-the-scenes assumptions and adjustments.
“There’s a fine line between an “objective” statistical model and “just some dude’s opinion,” Silver wrote in mid-July, a month after launching his own competing election model. “But the 538 model falls somewhere on the wrong side of this line, in my view.”
Some social media users have denounced his complaints as not based in math, especially as he makes similar adjustments to his data. Silver has adopted the FiveThirtyEight system of weighting polls differently, ostensibly based on reliability. He's facing criticism for allegedly favoring junk polls over respected pollsters.
“Patriot Polling is literally run by two right wing high school students that is ranked 240th on FiveThirtyEight,” former pollster Adam Carlson noted on X, asking why that poll was weighted more highly than a YouGov poll, which they called “an internationally respected pollster that is ranked 4th on FiveThirtyEight.”
Some users believe that Silver’s methods of weighting polls are dubious , especially as his swing state calculated “polling averages” move in the opposite direction as recently released swing state polls.
Silver's now being scrutinized for a potential conflict of interest after joining the crypto-based gambling company Polymarket as an advisor in July, and pushed his model while promoting election betting opportunities.
“Feels like it should be a bigger deal that Nate Silver is employed by Polymarket, a site that allows you to bet on political outcomes, and also runs a “prediction model” that has the ability to directly affect betting behavior,” journalist Brett Meiselas wrote on X.
Silver’s model gives Trump a greater chance of winning than most forecasts, which has earned him fans in MAGA World. Those new boosters include former President Trump, who used Silver's model as evidence that he wasn’t losing as badly as polling averages suggested.
Silver is a gambler who uses statistics to make money by finding inefficiencies in gambling markets. Anger at him and his model is a good marker of people who simply can't tolerate information they don't like.
He had Harris up last month. Progressives weren't whining about his model then.
I have seen him interviewed a number of times. He is a weird guy who is MAGA curious, and that is probably the nicest thing to say about him.
But as I said, Trump is clearly mentally , temperamentally, and ethically unfit for office. If Americans cant see that, we're going to need a supernatural intervention to save us.
The newness has worn off her shiny image as more people discover who she is and what she believes in, which comes close to Marxism. There is no reason to believe that her chances and numbers will improve in the remaining days, unless a lot of low information voters believe her lies and propaganda. Other polls confirm that Trump's numbers are improving.
Well, no, but trump is as close to a fascist as you can get.
That's a ridiculous comment.
That is certainly true.
There may be something even more sinister afoot here -
If Trump loses, part of his rationalization toward trying to overturn the election will be based on the fact that renowned poll aggregator Nate Silver showed him with a 64% chance of winning. If he had a 64% chance of winning, how could he possibly have lost? Therefore he was cheated.
Take it to the bank.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel , JD Vance, Trump, Nate Silver. These are all sinister people.
How do you think Trump will try to overturn the election other than going through the courts?