Harris’ momentum has stalled — but not reversed. Here’s 5 takeaways from the latest polls.
By: Steven Shepard (POLITICO)
So, the election has essentially returned to where it was before Joe Biden beat Medicare. The only evident benefit Democrats obtained by throwing their primary winner under the bus has been increased enthusiasm amongst their loyal followers.
What these polling results should be telling everyone is that the 2024 election is not a contest of personalities. The election hinges upon a comparison of records between two Presidents. Maybe that's why Democrats (and the unbiased liberal press) are working overtime to separate Kamala Harris from the incumbent record of Joe Biden. But the forthcoming debate may short circuit Democrats' efforts to redefine Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris can't be an outsider on the inside. Kamala Harris can't be a policy making underdog. At some point, the real Kamala Harris will have to stand up.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Nearly a month ago, POLITICO identified five key indicators of the election’s trajectory beyond the Harris-Trump horserace. Revisiting those — with fresh polling in mind — suggests Harris’ momentum has been arrested, but not reversed: She’s still gaining in popularity, and Democratic voters remain far more energized than when President Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket.
And still, the race remains exceedingly — and stubbornly — close.
Though Trump had a 2-point lead in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College released on Sunday, Harris maintains a national lead of between 1 and 3 percentage points on average. Given Republicans’ current advantage in the Electoral College, Harris’ current national lead is slightly closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient, 2-point popular-vote victory in 2016 than Biden’s 4-point win in 2020.
Moreover, the race is also extremely competitive in the battleground states. In three major polling averages — RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which each use different methodologies — each of the seven states both campaigns are contesting are within 3 points in either direction. Harris’ largest lead is in Wisconsin (2.7 points in the FiveThirtyEight average), while Trump’s biggest advantage is in Arizona (2.1 points in the Silver Bulletin average).
Look closer, and it’s easy to see why Harris has closed the gap — why neither candidate has broken away yet going into Tuesday’s debate.
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The debate poses a real challenge for Kamala Harris. Harris will be expected to defend Biden's incumbent record as an insider. Yet, Harris needs to avoid responsibility and accountability for Biden's record under the mantle of an outsider underdog.
So, Kamala Harris risks being at odds with herself. Obviously she will try to attack Trump every time she is questioned about her role in creating the Biden record. But that's not going to change anyone's mind, as the polling suggests.
Is Donald Trump fit to hold office ?
Yes, based upon Trump's record compared to the record of Biden. And Kamala Harris really cannot dodge responsibility for Biden's record by claiming to be an outsider on the inside.
The election is not a contest between personalities. Claiming that Trump is unfit based upon personality traits doesn't accomplish anything other than pissing off voters who want to know what the future direction of the country will be.
When that is the only thing they can base their opinions off of they are going to repeat the unproven opinion over and over.
You must be fucking kidding.
Well , at least you dint say "mean tweets".
Why base the former 'president' convicted felon and rapist traitor with others? Why do you deflect? Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have nothing to do with his unfitness for the presidency.
Of course. He was already president once, and will be again. The dems are going to lose because of their wacky policies and broken promises.
I'd really like to see your comparison between the 2. Which particular records are you comparing???
Trump's economic policies put a crimp on the supply-side, free trade, neoliberal status quo. Trump really did impose tariffs to protect US businesses and US jobs. That policy worked so well that Biden expended political capital to claim credit for Trump's trade policies.
Trump really did enact tougher policies on illegal immigration. The proof that Trump's policies were effective is provided that the fact that Biden overturning Trump's policies opened the floodgates for illegal immigration. Biden's approach was so bad that he eventually was required to reinstate some of Trump's policies.
Trump's record on foreign affairs contains many diplomatic successes. Trump got North Korea to suspend missile tests. Somehow Trump convinced Russia to assume a peacekeeping role in northern Iraq to prevent an incursion by Turkey and protect the Kurds; which greatly benefited the United States by avoiding a direct confrontation with another NATO member. Trump laid the groundwork for the Abraham Accords that brought Middle East peace within reach. We are all well aware that the world has gone to shit under Biden's leadership.
Trump really did pursue revitalizing state's rights, limiting the autocratic tendencies of the Federal bureaucracy, and reintroducing the original intent of checks and balances on the Federal government. Contrary to the false narratives promoted by Biden and Democrats, Trump did not interfere with states asserting their rights during the pandemic, did not interfere with the conduct of any elections, and certainly did not use his government position for self gain.
If you support Trump, I can see why you might wish for that, but in reality, personalities are always a factor.
If I have to like everyone I vote for, I’ll never vote again
Polling suggests otherwise. The election has not been a dead heat between Trump and Biden or Harris because of Trump's popularity or likeability.
Biden's strategy was to make the 2024 election a contest of personality. And Biden failed; voters really were paying attention to Biden's record. Replacing Biden with Kamala Harris hasn't broken through the polling or voter expectations.
Personality isn’t just about liking someone.
Of course it isn’t.[✘]
Polling has got nothing to do with it. People vote for a candidate for all sorts of reasons. Personality is unquestionably one of those reasons.
In Trump’s personality, I see arrogance, entitlement, narcissism, dishonesty, disrespect, willful ignorance, condescension, a preference for breaking rules and avoiding accountability, and psychopathy. And that’s just off the top of my head.
As I said, I can understand why any Trump supporter would want to avoid making personality part of the discussion in this race. His personality sucks.
Now, while other politicians have certainly also had some of these personality traits, I have never seen all of them to the extreme degree I see in Trump. And I believe this is why you see so many former associates of his, and other conservatives, coming out in support of Harris.
Those tariffs were just one of the causes for inflation, and they are basically tax increases for working and middle classes since they caused price increases.
Biden should have adjusted or even eliminated a majority of Trump enacted tafiffs.
Trump had mainly 2 policies for immigration.
Most other laws have been continued since administration changes. And Biden has used his executive powers to enact even tougher standards since Trump prevented bipartisan laws from dealing with immigration.
Trump was an international laughing stock, no one took him seriously as shown when the UN general assembly broke out laughing AT him.
His only international successes was his fawning at the feet of authoritarian dictators.
Trump opposed states rights except for women's bodily autonomy. He attacked state's rights after the 2020 election, trying to impose his policies on how they handled their election process.
What color is the sky in your world? Trump ran for POTUS for only 2 reason. Make more money and block any criminal investigations.
Trump made up to $160 million from foreign countries as president
New Congressional Report: Trump Businesses Received $7.8 Million from Foreign Governments During His Presidency
Trump reported making more than $1.6 billion while president
Oversight Democrats Launch Investigation into Allegations Trump DOJ Covered Up $10 Million Cash Bribe to Donald Trump from Egyptian President
But he did not. Biden owns it as much if not more than Trump.
Utterly false comment.
Besides, your gal Kamala has said she will build, too. And Biden reinstituted some of Trumps policies. You may have noticed the numbers falling from 40 year highs after Biden did that.
Democrats have no room to criticize Trump on immigration or the border.
That won’t stop them. Never does.
I’m curious which specific businesses and jobs you think were protected by these tariffs? Because it doesn’t seem like actual economists share your view.
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
For Many Households, Trump’s Tariffs Could Wipe Out The Benefits of the TCJA
Similarly, the conservative American Action Forum estimates the tariffs imposed so far will boost consumer prices alone by $66 billion annually.
Steel, aluminum, copper, other mineral production, pharmaceutical feedstocks, paper goods, some textiles, medical supplies, etc. The tariffs contributed to encouraging businesses to remain in the United States, encouraged repatriation of profits held offshore, contributed to strengthening the resilience of the US economy. The tariffs also generated revenue for the Federal government.
Modern economists are woefully ignorant of the necessary supplies needed for the big ticket, high profit, gee whiz technology that is the centerpiece of there economic prescriptions. The economy depends upon low cost, low profit, low tech goods for prosperity and resiliency. Screws, nails, tape, glue, etc. are more important for a healthy economy than the latest, greatest iPhone.
Any tax on business will raise consumer prices. A sales tax is paid by consumers. Merchant fees charged by credit card companies are paid by consumers. Businesses do not have a magic money tree; consumers pay for everything in our economy. Biden's flat rate tax on business raises consumer prices the same way tariffs do. Attempting to turn the Federal treasury into a magic money tree will only bankrupt the country, devalue the dollar, and raise consumer prices on everything.
The thing about tariffs is they are not an across-the-board tax. Only imports are taxed. And that tax can be avoided by producing domestically rather than importing. So, tariffs are a negative incentive on imports that encourage investment in domestic production. But the benefit provided by tariffs is completely destroyed by imposing higner taxes on domestic business.
It’s not good for the economy. For every job protected in these industries, there are many more jobs put in jeopardy because of increased costs. Put a tariff on steel, for example, and steel prices rise. Thus, costs to manufacturers that use steel also rises. So either manufacturing employees get fired, manufacturers go out of business, and/or regular people pay higher prices. i.e., unemployment and inflation rise.
Meanwhile, other countries - mainly our allies in Europe - imposed retaliatory tariffs on American products. It’s just a dumb idea, and there is a lot of data - and professional economic opinion - supporting that conclusion.
This may come as a shock to many-- but different people use different criteria in judging political candidates.
(Long ago I learned that everyone does not have the same values-- or opinions-- as I do).
This may come as a bigger shock to many -- but democracy really is based upon a majority of like-minded people.
Democracy is incompatible with arguments that try to state that exceptions make the rule. The winner of a democratic election requires a majority that shares similar opinions.
Mexico will pay for the wall, and, the healthcare plan will come out in two weeks.
Have a good day Greg.
Do you agree?
Not by any means.
Dick Cheney was a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. Cheney's deliberate lies resulted in the US being stuck in a decades long war that accomplished absolutely nothing other than creating a black stain of torture and detention on the history of the country.
Dick Cheney's character is too flawed to give any credence to his opinions on the character of others. Donald Trump is a saint compared to Dick Cheney.
You know absolutely nothing about J6 , thus your opinion is irrelevant.
And even more unrelated bullshit. And the expected personal attack indicating you don't have ANY kind of argument.
I've never voted for Dick Cheney, have you?
Saying you know absolutely nothing about J6 isnt a personal attack, it is the easily observable truth on this forum.
That's one opinion.
Don't live in Wyoming so never voted for any Cheney. Didn't vote for George W. Bush so Cheney missed out there, too.
I didn't vote for Kamala Harris because I don't live in California. I've won as many primaries as Harris, so, I guess I'm as fit to be President as Kamala Harris. Trump really has won more primaries than has Kamala Harris, so, Trump would be more fit than Harris to be President.
[deleted][✘]
And yet, if it were Cheney instead of Trump running for POTUS, you'd be defending and voting for Cheney.
[✘]
lol, it’s true to anyone who pays attention here.
Why would I be defending Cheney at this late date? More importantly, why are self-identified progressives embracing Dick Cheney now?
I'm not defending Donald Trump, either. But that doesn't change the simple fact that Trump's record is better than Biden's record as President. It doesn't require defending Trump to recognize that Trump is still the better choice for Presidnet.
It's a pathetic deflection. Something many have come used to seeing from the left on the verge of tears because a democrat's fucked up actions are called out.
Given it's not Cheney, why get worked up over it. Lets stick to what is actually going on and not the what if nonsense.
It's amazingly hilarious that on an article showing Harris is not getting the gains needed that the left are constantly trying to deflect to nonsense throughout the comments.
What did the left used to call Cheney? Darth Vader?
I guess he’s Luke Skywalker now.
Hilarious.
Should we really expect any more or better from those same folks who so soundly rejected Kamala just 4 years ago but now swoon at the sound of her name?
I know ….. she must be replaced or she’ll drag Biden down.
Allllrighty then …….
You missed the whole "IF" in my comment, didn't you?
Your comment history says otherwise.
I have yet to see which records you are comparing.
I think you may need to re-examine your priorities.
We're not embracing Shotgun Dick but he's the obvious rare republican with a spine. I'm not defending him either. Who is?
Lol
I really love how liberals cherry-pick certain statements to support their theories.
Cheney was called everything in the book by libs, but now they want to listen.
LMMFAO at the sheer hypocrisy!
They are shameless. Absolutely shameless.
I still recall him waking President Bush to proclaim "We have boots on the ground!"
Amazingly, apparently Cheney wielded much more power as VP than Kamala ever thought of!
I do think George W gave him foreign policy.
I am only pointing out that Trump is a better choice than Biden's surrogate, Kamala Harris. You are the one adding the labels. And your labels and qualifiers do not change the fact that there isn't a better alternative to Trump.
I am not going to date Trump. I am not going to adopt Trump. I am not interested in being Trump's neighbor. And I don't expect Trump to be a Pope. Trump didn't wreck the country or sell out the country. That makes Trump the better choice.
Who's listening?
Just a guess-- call it a "long shot"-- but my guess is that some people do, some don't.
(Then there is a group of people who are totally mystified by the question, LOL!)
You
Nein
Wrong again
As the CNN analyst Enten said the other day, this election is closer than any in decades. It's been within the margin of error for months. If the polls are off by a point or two in swing states, either candidate can win an electoral landslide while barely winning or losing the popular vote. It may well all come down to Pennsylvania.
Correct!
Possibly Pennsylvania-- but maybe not. (Could possibly be decided by a different state-- or states)?
As a famous Yogi master and guru once said:
Prediction is difficult-- especially about the future!
--Yogi Berra
Biden ran as a moderate and a uniter. Then governed as one of the most progressive and divisive presidents in our history.
Harris is using the same false promises gambit but if Harris wins, she’ll make Joe Biden look like John Birch.
Bank it …..
All the aides will need to by men, the first dude couldn't keep his hands off the Nanny, can you imagine what he is going to do in a house full of interns?
Well, of course you're entitled to your opinion (but my personal belief is that Harris won't be all that "right wing")
Interesting take on a very obvious comment
I see no pathway that Harris can improve her standings. The more people discover how morally bankrupt she is, the less they like her.
Most Americans don't want to live under what would be a Soviet style system of government.
Do you have a pup tent with a view. Maybe a shrubbery on the side, one that looks nice but not too expensive
Monty Python reference wasted on the masses here …..
Obviously, you've never heard of Donald Trump... Cheated on all of his wives, paid off porn stars, had sex with a 14 year old girl... But Harris is morally bankrupt.. LOL OK..
IMO the fact that Trump's numbers are still so high is proof of the need for a MASSIVE improvement in America's health care system, especially mental health, and even the gun lovers agree with that, because as they say, the huge gun violence numbers are not the fault of the AR-15s, it's the sick people who pull the triggers.
They are called Democrats.
Something I would never be.
LOL. You know damn well that those who refuse gun control legislation and blame mental health are mostly Republicans, not Democrats.
Something I would never be as well, but then I would never be a Republican either, and in fact I even would never be a citizen of the USA (and I know there are some here who are glad of it) but I AM an American, a NORTH American.
Because Democrats seem to want to blanket take the guns away instead of dealing with the real problem.
Australia made that a voluntary thing and it made a huge difference to the problem. However, I know that the attitude of Americans would more likely just echo Charlton Heston's famous line about prying his gun from his cold dead hands, hang the consequences.
In this country, people are free to do crazy stuff and are more or less guaranteed due process. In many other countries you would just get deported, shot, beaten, tortured or sent to a re-education camp.
Freedom can be a very messy thing but it’s better than living with a boot on your throat.
Much better …..
LOL. "A boot on your throat"? What a great exaggeration. People here can do crazy stuff as well as long as it isn't something that is so crazy that it can get a person in trouble, but then that's just the same as where you are, isn't it. There are very few "freedoms" that you have that people here don't have, and those that they don't do not prevent peaceful law-abiding people from living full, free and happy lives. You can believe the politicians and others who use demonizing China to better their own selves or else me, who has lived here for more than 18 years and has learned a lot during that time. Yes, China has its warts and I've posted my opinion about them on NT, but then you cannot possibly deny that America has its warts as well, and i've indicated on NT what some of them are as well. Think of what the last words in the movie Some Like it Hot were. "Nobody's perfect".,
I can assure you that the vast vast majority of people here are quite happy with their government, as compared to America where around half the population are always unhappy with the government at the time, and you can't deny that.
'A boot on your throat'
Pay no attention to the hive minded drone nonsense from some folks.
Glad you are enjoying it over there. Think I’ll stay here though.
Always nice to get assurance that my comments are spot on. Thx
I know better than Tess could possibly know how ridiculous your comment about a boot on my throat, especially since I've been treated so well here by government officials and police and have friends among them. Like so....
He doesn't know any better. Thinks I'm agreeing with his bullshit.
[✘]
Yawn …..