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President Biden's Economic Performance Has Proved Unbeatable - Bloomberg

  
Via:  al Jizzerror  •  3 years ago  •  67 comments

By:   Bloomberg. com

President Biden's Economic Performance Has Proved Unbeatable - Bloomberg
No first-year president going back to Carter comes close to matching the current White House occupant's No. 1 or No. 2 ranking in each of 10 key measures.

Sponsored by group SiNNERs and ButtHeads

SiNNERs and ButtHeads


This seed will make the White-wing knuckle draggers shit in their collective pants!

In 1992, James Carville said:  "It's the economy, stupid."  That catch phrase lead to Bill Clinton's upset over sitting Republican President George Herbert Walker Bush (daddy Bush).

Up until now many Republicans have been assuming that the economy under Biden has been "terrible".  They have been talking about how Americans have "suffered" because of Joe Biden.  Republicans (except Bloomberg) are stupid about the economy.  Maybe now they will wake up and smell the money.

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S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



No first-year president going back to Carter comes close to matching the current White House occupant's No. 1 or No. 2 ranking in each of 10 key measures.

By Matthew A. Winkler +Follow December 20, 2021, 5:00 AM EST

President Joe Biden has the economy and markets humming.

Photographer: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. financial markets are outperforming the world by the biggest margin in the 21st century, and with good reason: America's economy improved more in Joe Biden's first 12 months than any president during the past 50 years notwithstanding the contrary media narrative contributing to dour public opinion.

Exceptional returns from dollar-denominated assets, especially the S&P 500 Index in both absolute terms and relative to its global counterparts, can be attributed to record-low debt ratios enabling companies to reap the biggest profit margins since 1950. Corporate America is booming because the Biden administration's Covid-19 vaccination programs and $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan reduced the jobless rate to 4.2% in November from 6.2% in February, continuing an unprecedented rate of decline during the Covid-19 pandemic

Consider that real, or inflation adjusted, gross domestic product surged at an average annual rate of 5.03% in each of the first three quarters of 2021, and is poised to expand 5.6% for the year based on the average estimate of more than 80 economists surveyed Bloomberg. If that forecast proves accurate, it would be more than 2.8 times the average between 2000 and 2019 and double the average since 1976.

All of which makes Biden's first year in the White House the standout among the seven previous presidents, based on 10 market and economic indicators given equal weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, no one comes close to matching Biden's combination of No. 1 and No. 2 rankings for each of the measures:

  • Gross domestic product (1)
  • Profit growth (1) 
  • S&P 500 performance (2) 
  • Consumer credit (1) 
  • Non-farm payrolls (2) 
  • Manufacturing jobs (2) 
  • Business productivity (2) 
  • Dollar appreciation (2) 
  • S&P 500 relative performance (2) 

Per capita disposable income, which rose 1.08% this year, is the only comparable weakness for Biden, trailing Donald Trump’s 2.17%, George W. Bush’s 2.01%, Jimmy Carter’s 1.80% and Ronald Reagan’s 1.42%.

GDP growth in every incoming administration during the past four decades never exceeded 2.74% until 2021. Biden is now positioned to surpass Carter (5.01%) as the GDP champion of presidents since 1976. Much of the credit goes to The American Rescue Plan, which poured $66 billion into 36 million households and reduced the child poverty rate by 50%, helping the U.S. recover faster from the pandemic than most other nations.

Leading the Pack


The economy is poised to expand 5.5% in Biden's first year as president

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Corporate America was never healthier than under Biden in 2021. Efforts to support consumers flowed through to America’s companies, which are enjoying profit margins of around 15%, the widest since 1950, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Non-financial profit increased 39.3%, making Biden No. 1 among eight presidents with Obama a distant second at 21.6%. 



Earnings Bonanza


Corporate profits have boomed in Biden's first year in office



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The boom times have allowed companies to reduce net debt as a percentage of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to the lowest since data was compiled in 1990 for companies in the S&P 500. All this helps explain why the stock market under Biden is second only to George H.W. Bush of any incoming president since Carter.



Bull Market


Biden edges Obama for second-best first-year stock performance



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Americans are certainly feeling good. Consumer credit surged  $196 billion through October, a record under Biden that is 27% more than the increase under No. 2 Donald Trump ($154 billion). Although some of the gains reflect a rebound from 2020 when the pandemic caused many consumers to retrench, they wouldn’t be adding debt if they weren’t feeling confident. 




Feeling Flush


A surge in credit borrowing by consumers signals high economic confidence




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The way the jobs market is improving, it’s not hard to see why consumers are in such a good mood. Biden is the only president over the past half century with robust increases in non-farm payrolls (4.3%) and manufacturing jobs (2.6%), approaching the gains enjoyed by Carter in general employment (4.6%) and factory workers (3.9%). Trump, who inherited the longest expansion in modern times and said in 2015 he would “be greatest jobs producer that God ever created,” is an also-ran, with non-farm and manufacturing payrolls inching up 1.4% and 1.3%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 



Jobs Boom


Only Carter tops Biden for best growth in payrolls in their first year in office



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Returning to Factories


Manufacturers have added more workers under Biden

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Companies need all the workers they can get. U.S. business output, a measure of productivity, increased 4.4%, putting Biden ahead of every predecessor except Carter, where it gained 6.25%. No wonder confidence among chief executive officers of the largest U.S. companies soared to a record this year as expectations for hiring, capital investment and sales improved. The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook index, launched in 2004, rose 10 points to 124 in the fourth quarter, the highest in 20 years. 



Getting Back to Work


Business output is surging under Biden as the economy recovers



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America’s economy is the envy of the world, looking at the foreign-exchange market. The dollar has strengthened 7.37% this year. That is the most under a first-year president since the greenback gained 17.8% for Reagan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



The Mighty Greenback


America's currency has gotten stronger under Biden



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In another sign that the U.S. economy is a global leader under Biden, U.S. stocks outperformed the world equity market by 6.3 percentage points, the widest advantage since 1988, when George H.W. Bush was in the White House, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



Beating the World


U.S. stocks are generating higher returns than the global equity market



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The good times may extend into 2022. Biden's bipartisan $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act bodes well for the economy and American labor because it will rebuild the nation's deteriorating roads and bridges as well as fund climate and broadband initiatives that create jobs. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who said his priority was preventing the Biden agenda, voted for the law along with 18 fellow Republicans.

Biden, like Carter, now faces the political fallout of the accelerating inflation from global supply chain breakdowns associated with the pandemic even though maintaining stable inflation and interest rates are the primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and the Fed said it's prepared to tighten monetary policy in 2022.


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al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
1  seeder  al Jizzerror    3 years ago

It will be fun to see what the Trumpanzees will say.

The last time i presented the numbers, they tried to attack the source (CNN).

Butt CNN was NOT the source of those numbers; CNN merely reported the numbers (accurately).

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  al Jizzerror @1    3 years ago

Your seed is like Kryptonite to the magats here.  Job well done.  I only wish I could vote it up a hundred times.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.1  Kavika   replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1    3 years ago

Bingo

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
1.2  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  al Jizzerror @1    2 years ago

All I can say is that whoever wrote that article got to smokin some great stuff!  Whatever Biden has done has only helped his rich corporate liberal buds. The little people are still suffering financially and economically, and will be for the foreseeable future, as long as Uncle Joe remains in office. The only thing I have for confidence in this administration is that Joe Biden only has four years to totally screw this nation up. That's because he will never get reelected. Okay I've said my piece so now the libs can start roasting me now if they want.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.2.1  TᵢG  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.2    2 years ago
Whatever Biden has done has only helped his rich corporate liberal buds.

Specifics here would be helpful.

That's because he will never get reelected.

I certainly hope he does not run.   The D and R parties should both seek the best possible candidates in terms of competence, energy, convictions, ethics, etc.   Now I know that is not what is going to happen, but it should.

Biden clearly is far from the best the Ds have to offer so for the good of the party and the nation, I hope for better.   Similarly, Trump is an abysmal candidate especially after he proved this to the world with his Big Lie con-job.   The GOP can do better without breaking a sweat.

Will the parties do better?   Sadly I cannot confidently state that we will not see Biden v. Trump (although I do not expect to see either of them).

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
1.2.2  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.1    2 years ago

Agreed.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
1.2.3  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.1    2 years ago
Whatever Biden has done has only helped his rich corporate liberal buds.
Specifics here would be helpful.

Specifically, stock market and real estate investments have grown at a much, much faster rate than wages.  That's great if you have stock market and real estate investments, but not so great if you work for all of your dollars instead of them working for you.

Biden has been able to accomplish large government spending programs, which also historically favor wealthy and affluent people. 

High government spending also encourages inflation.  Inflation is an interesting academic concept for affluent people, who note that their $15 margaritas are now $22.  It's a very painful concept for middle-class and poor people, many of whom were stretched to the limit already.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.2.4  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @1.2.3    2 years ago
Specifically, stock market and real estate investments have grown at a much, much faster rate than wages.  That's great if you have stock market and real estate investments, but not so great if you work for all of your dollars instead of them working for you.

This is a result of Biden policies??    If Biden has some method for making this (stock market growth) happen I would ask him to bottle it for future administrations.   Wages have been stagnant for decades (adjusted for inflation).  

Biden has been able to accomplish large government spending programs, which also historically favor wealthy and affluent people. 

I see that as mostly a function of Congress and I see this happening regardless of the party in power.   Biden and the current Congress are guilty of this if they pass the BBB legislation.   I can see the extant infrastructure legislation (if by some chance it is properly executed) as being a good thing for the nation as a whole.   That is, national infrastructure (true, not in name only) is actually something that falls within their purview.

High government spending also encourages inflation.  Inflation is an interesting academic concept for affluent people, who note that their $15 margaritas are now $22.  It's a very painful concept for middle-class and poor people, many of whom were stretched to the limit already.

(refer to above)  

Our federal government has for decades engaged in egregious spending.   So, barring BBB, distinguishing Biden's administration/Congress from other administrations/congresses on these grounds seems unfair.   If we want to note that this administration and this Congress continues the trend of past administrations and congresses to favor the rich and powerful, that goes without saying.   But it does not show the distinction that I expected to see.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
1.2.5  Split Personality  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.4    2 years ago

I would note, that while we are going to spend a record amount on Defense under Bidens first budget

we are no longer spending trillions on ME adventures and instead

we are chafing at spending a lesser amount on our own actual citizens and infrastructure 

almost strictly on partisan lines after the last Administrations 200 plus Infrastructure weeks

also produced nada.

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
1.2.6  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.5    2 years ago

I do not recall the last administration cutting COLA for active duty personnel living in high cost the of living areas like Biden is doing. Please tell us about record amounts for defense under Biden. 

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
1.2.7  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.2.6    2 years ago
I do not recall the last administration cutting COLA for active duty personnel.

Trump raids military families, national security to pay for border wall: Vets in Congress

Mexico is not paying for the wall. So Trump is taking money that was supposed to support US allies, military families and projects to keep us safe.

Gil Cisneros and Anthony Brown
Opinion contributors - September 16, 2019

President Donald Trump recently announced he will divert $3.6 billion in congressionally approved military construction funds to pay for part of his border wall — an ineffective vanity project that does little to strengthen our national security. In diverting this money by spuriously claiming emergency powers, Trump is circumventing Congress’ constitutional authority to decide spending and undermining the relationship between Congress and the Department of Defense.

Even more so, his reckless decision has grave consequences for the military  in which we both proudly served. The United States boasts the finest and most capable fighting force in the world. Keeping it that way requires that we continue to support our service members, stand with our allies, and invest in the infrastructure and facilities that keep us safe.

Dilapidated schools and clinics 

Many of the 127 projects the president canceled would have improved the quality of life at work or home for military service members and their families. When our friends and neighbors commit to serve our country, they agree to constantly uproot their families to go where necessary to defend our borders and our freedoms, both at home and overseas. In turn, our nation makes a sacred promise to provide for them and support their families.

These include bases that military families call home. To them these installations are communities, each with their own schools, hospitals and grocery stores. Just as any of us would be outraged by crumbling classrooms, dilapidated clinics and decades-old facilities in our own neighborhoods, we should be even more incensed when the president condemns our service members and their families to such conditions.

The military construction projects that the administration is stealing from to pay for an unnecessary wall might not get the recognition or attention of a fighter jet, tank or warship, but they directly impact our military readiness and the well-being for our military families. Investment on military construction and family housing has plummeted over the decade, and there are over a $116 billion maintenance backlog of projects. The Pentagon has already testified to Congress about how this cumulative underfunding has reached a crisis point.

An example is the canceled child care development center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, home to Air Force One and the cornerstone of military security in our nation’s capital. The current child care center was constructed during World War II and now is too small to serve the number on children on base. It suffers from sewage backups, mold and rodent infestation, a leaking roof, and failing heating and AC systems .

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
1.2.8  Split Personality  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.2.6    2 years ago

COLA is evaluated every year. Sometimes it increases, sometimes it decreases.

This year it happens to go down in many areas previously seen as "safe" " high cost areas

It is also determined by a third party government contractor by the laws that Congress enacted,

not Mr. Biden.

Frequently Asked Questions about CONUS COLA | Military.com

In spite of many Congressional objections from both sides of the aisle, the 2022 Defense budget

was not only a record number $740 Billion but the House added $28 Billion which the Senate accepted

and Biden signed for $768 Billion.

Which is meaningless when BAS, BAH, COLA and other non taxable stipends are calculated by laws 

previously established by Congress not the White House.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
1.2.9  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.4    2 years ago
This is a result of Biden policies?? 

Some of it, certainly. 

It's not unlike a doctor who comes in for his shift at the hospital, doesn't read the patient's chart accurately, and overmedicates her.  He's not responsible for what the previous Dr. did, but he's definitely responsible for making it worse.

Wages have been stagnant for decades (adjusted for inflation).

Which makes inflation all the more problematic.  

I can see the extant infrastructure legislation (if by some chance it is properly executed) as being a good thing for the nation as a whole.   That is, national infrastructure (true, not in name only) is actually something that falls within their purview.

The infrastructure improvements are overdue and the infrastructure bill would have been fine had we not already pumped $3 trillion into the economy already through FFCRA and CARES, and another trillion through QE.  As much as things may need to be done, they can't all be done at once.  

Our federal government has for decades engaged in egregious spending.

Yes, but not like we have in the last 20 months or so.   We're talking about the difference between billions and trillions.

So, barring BBB, distinguishing Biden's administration/Congress from other administrations/congresses on these grounds seems unfair.

Despite the ridiculous claims in the article, I think it's unfair to blame or credit him exclusively for any part of the current economic situation.  That said, he has contributed to a number of current economic problems.  He's a career politician who wants it to appear like he's doing "something", and his supporters are perfectly happy to count "spending" as "something". 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.2.10  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @1.2.9    2 years ago
Some of it, certainly. 

That basically states that the sitting PotUS will have some influence on matters in the USA.   Of course that is true.   But that is a far cry from speaking of specific actions by the PotUS that caused a rising stock market or stagnant wages.

The infrastructure improvements are overdue and the infrastructure bill would have been fine had we not already pumped $3 trillion into the economy already through FFCRA and CARES, and another trillion through QE. 

I certainly agree that the federal government has irresponsibly overspent and over-borrowed (well before Biden).   But if we are going to continue to spend (which clearly they will) then I favor hard infrastructure and related initiatives that are necessary and actually within the constitutional purview of the federal government.

Yes, but not like we have in the last 20 months or so. 

Agreed, they are growing worse.   It is as if they gauge reasonable spending/borrowing as a percentage of national debt.   COVID relief became an easy excuse for exacerbating the problem.

Despite the ridiculous claims in the article, I think it's unfair to blame or credit him exclusively for any part of the current economic situation.  That said, he has contributed to a number of current economic problems.  He's a career politician who wants it to appear like he's doing "something", and his supporters are perfectly happy to count "spending" as "something". 

Not different in fundamentals from any other PotUS.   It really is not the PotUS as much as it is political parties who care only about power and will burden our great-grandchildren with debt (and further compromise the value of the USD) to get their way.

The same basic dynamics would have happened with any D PotUS and similar dynamics with any R PotUS.   Focusing this discussion strictly on Biden misses the point.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
1.2.11  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.10    2 years ago
But that is a far cry from speaking of specific actions by the PotUS that caused a rising stock market or stagnant wages.

I thought I had effectively communicated that "additional reckless spending" was the specific action in question.

I certainly agree that the federal government has irresponsibly overspent and over-borrowed (well before Biden). 

Totally agree.

But if we are going to continue to spend (which clearly they will) then I favor hard infrastructure and related initiatives that are necessary and actually within the constitutional purview of the federal government.

As would I, but what we prefer is completely immaterial with regard to the consequences.  Whether you spend $300k renovating your home or buying a new McClaren, the money is gone.

It is as if they gauge reasonable spending/borrowing as a percentage of national debt.   COVID relief became an easy excuse for exacerbating the problem.

Absolutely.  Combine that with the increasing trend over the last decade or so to value feelings and ignore facts, and they have nearly unlimited carte blanche because people "feel afraid".

Not different in fundamentals from any other PotUS.

The difference in this situation is the quantity of money that had already been spent before he arrived. 

I do give him credit for hobbling the extremists in his own party who are still throwing tantrums because they didn't get to spend half as much of other people's money as they wanted.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.2.12  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @1.2.11    2 years ago
As would I, but what we prefer is completely immaterial with regard to the consequences.  Whether you spend $300k renovating your home or buying a new McClaren, the money is gone.

Money invested wisely can (essentially will) enable revenue growth.   Having quality roadways, for example, is critical for commerce.  Money spent on handouts, wasted, or stolen via corruption is money gone.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
1.2.13  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @1.2.12    2 years ago
Money invested wisely can (essentially will) enable revenue growth.   Having quality roadways, for example, is critical for commerce.  Money spent on handouts, wasted, or stolen via corruption is money gone.

I get that.  But you're talking about a decade later, and only then if you're able to actually collect that revenue.

Regardless, you can't force that much money into the economy in such a short span without problems.  Those problems will be capitalized upon by the wealthy and will make life very difficult for the working class.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.2.14  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @1.2.13    2 years ago
But you're talking about a decade later, and only then if you're able to actually collect that revenue.

... and effectively execute the legislation.   Lots of ifs.   And that is the nature of infrastructure.   So I support infrastructure (as I defined it).   I would think you would support it too and recognize that infrastructure does indeed enable commerce.

Regardless, you can't force that much money into the economy in such a short span without problems.  Those problems will be capitalized upon by the wealthy and will make life very difficult for the working class.

Are we still talking about the passed and signed $1.2T infrastructure bill (vs. the BBB legislation)?    This is a bill whose actions (and spending) are necessarily executed over time.   And if you are hinting at the incompetent execution of same well then we agree because that is my key concern.   But the concern for waste and corruption is true of any initiative of the federal government.

And there is nothing that I see that can be done to prevent the wealthy from working conditions to their benefit.   That is systemic in our extant implementation of capitalism.

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
Professor Quiet
1.2.15  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.8    2 years ago

Okay, I admit that I did not check my sources as properly or as thoroughly as I should have and I was wrong. My thanks for the corrections and clarifications and mybapologies as well. I will have to he more careful in the future.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
1.2.16  Dulay  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.2.15    2 years ago

Kudos. 

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
1.2.17  Trout Giggles  replied to  al Jizzerror @1.2.7    2 years ago

Mr Giggles is a dorm manager and right round this time he had an unsafe stairway that had to be blocked off because there were no funds to repair it. He's also had tons of work orders that go ignored because of lack of funding.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
1.2.18  Split Personality  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.2.15    2 years ago

No problem Ed. 

Thanks for your service during a difficult time.

Go Navy.

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
1.3  Trout Giggles  replied to  al Jizzerror @1    2 years ago

Damn! I missed this?

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
2  Kavika     3 years ago
Butt CNN was NOT the source of those numbers; CNN merelyreported the numbers(accurately).

OMG, we don't need no stinkin' facts. 

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.1  devangelical  replied to  Kavika @2    3 years ago

facts ruin their narrative of a third world country economy, thumpers being crucified daily, our streets filled with roving bands of criminals and commies, and the entire population of central and south america is either camped at 2 border crossings or waiting at every foot of shoreline and mile of desert to invade. is there a world record for how high bullshit can be stacked? how tall is trump?

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
2.1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  devangelical @2.1    3 years ago

My dad used to say...."I knew bs could be stacked high, but I didn't know it could also speak."

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3  Nerm_L    3 years ago

Yep, Joe Biden is a neoliberal's neoliberal.  As the data clearly shows, Biden has overseen a revival of the neoliberal economy based on neoliberal financial measures.

Biden has been very, very good for Wall Street and global profiteers.  Neoliberals are basking in the glow of returning to normal.  Stock trading Congressmen should be happy; it's been a good year for them.

 
 
 
bccrane
Freshman Silent
3.1  bccrane  replied to  Nerm_L @3    3 years ago

The other thing that happens is that the incoming president doesn't see the results of their policies until they're into they're second year, their first year is still the previous presidents policies.  If it wasn't for the covid19 downturn during Trump, Trump's policies are still in effect.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3.1.1  Nerm_L  replied to  bccrane @3.1    3 years ago
The other thing that happens is that the incoming president doesn't see the results of their policies until they're into they're second year, their first year is still the previous presidents policies.  If it wasn't for the covid19 downturn during Trump, Trump's policies are still in effect.

That's the typical excuse.  Don't forget the flurry of Executive Orders Biden issued to overturn the policies of 'he who shall not be named'.  Of course, we're supposed to ignore that Biden is walking back on a lot that he rescinded.  

No, Biden promised a return to neoliberal normal.  And that's what we got.  Joe Biden is a neoliberal's neoliberal.  Give him credit for what he has accomplished in such a short time.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
3.1.2  Dulay  replied to  Nerm_L @3.1.1    3 years ago
Of course, we're supposed to ignore that Biden is walking back on a lot that he rescinded.  

What walk backs are you pretending to ignore Nerm? Be specific. 

neoliberal, neoliberal, neoliberal...

You keep using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means. 

H/T Inigo Montoya

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
3.2  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Nerm_L @3    3 years ago
Joe Biden is a neoliberal's neoliberal.

Thanx for the neowordsalad!

BTW, the performance of the S&P 500 was just one of the economic factors in the article.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3.2.1  Nerm_L  replied to  al Jizzerror @3.2    2 years ago
BTW, the performance of the S&P 500 was just one of the economic factors in the article.

Well, yes, the S&P 500 was just one factor listed in the article, twice.  Are any of the listed factors NOT supply-side measures of the economy?

Which of the listed factors address safety-net measures of the economy?   You know, things like income, housing, and food security.  Why aren't factors like CPI, trade deficits, and inflation included?  Why isn't measures of poverty in a claimed booming economy mentioned?

According to the article, Joe Biden has been very good for the supply-side of the economy.  And the supply-side of the economy is what neoliberals care about.  Joe Biden's planned return to normal has really been about returning to preferential treatment for the supply-side of the economy.

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
3.2.2  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Nerm_L @3.2.1    2 years ago
According to the article, Joe Biden has been very good for the supply-side of the economy.  And the supply-side of the economy is what neoliberals care about.

I see.  You appear to be opposed to "supply-side economics".

Please notice the "three fundamental 'pillars' of the supply-side model" in the article below.   Joe Biden hasn't done anything that resembles the supply-side model.

In fact, the  "three fundamental 'pillars' of the supply-side model" are what Republicans have promoted since Ronald Reagan.   Therefore, according to the article below, you must have hated Donald "supply-side" Trump.  It's strange, butt I don't recall you criticizing The Donald.

Supply-side economic theory powers Trump tax plan

Finance and economics professor Farrokh Langdana breaks down the arguments surrounding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Tue, January 2, 2018

By  Farrokh Langdana , Director,  Executive MBA Program  & Professor of  Finance and Economics   

Faculty Blog: 

The Wall Street Journal published a gem in a Nov. 25, 2017 , letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during the tax debate signed by nine economic heavy hitters that included two of the original supply-side theorists, Prof. Robert Barro from Harvard and Prof. John Taylor, from Stanford; Taylor was in the recent running for Fed Chairman.

The WSJ article (A) is vintage supply-side thinking. Below is an overview of the supply-siders followed by analysis of two anti-supply side articles from Paul Krugman (B) of the New York Times and Peter Coy (C), the economics editor for Bloomberg Businessweek, followed by my personal opinion.

There are three fundamental 'pillars' of the supply-side model:

  1. Large business tax cuts are supposed to increase labor demand. (Please see figure 4a of Chapter 10, of my Book 4, Macroeconomic Policy, Edition 3 . Read from 10.2)
  2. Large personal tax cuts are supposed to increase labor supply (figure 4b). With the ensuing increases in labor demand and supply, employment is consequently supposed to increase (see figure 7).
  3. Deregulation of intrusive government is supposed to increase productivity (figure 6) and that, plus the unfettered business eco-climate is supposed to drive Innovation.

As the "size of the pie" – the national income, denoted as Y---increases, tax revenues (T) are supposed to rise, in T = tY, where t is the % tax rate, Y is National Income (GDP) and T is Tax Revenues in dollars.

So as tax rates, t, fall with Trump's proposal, i f Y (GDP, the size of the pie), increases disproportionately as per the S-side model in Figure 7, then the dollar tax revenues, T (the "tax base) may actually increase or, at least remain the same. In these cases, we get the refrain, “the Trump tax cuts will pay for themselves!”

Not so fast! say the critics, and most notably, the bane of the Supply-Siders, Prof. Krugman below, in "Lies, Lies, Lies....!" Krugman’s blog and the one from Bloomberg Businessweek’s economics editor following it (which actually responds to the WSJ article), presented be low, argue that: No. It is not clear that the tax cuts to businesses and personal income actually affect labor demand and supply. The evidence does not support this, they claim. In fact, in a recent meeting of Top 50 CEOs only two out of 50 told a Trump cabinet minister, Gary Cohn, that they would increase employment if given juicy corporate tax cuts. Most of the tax cuts would, according to them, show up in greater earnings for their stock-holders.

And, critics would argue further that overall tax revenues, T, have not empirically increased in past supply-side experiments. There is no "increasing of the size of the pie to allow tax cuts to pay for themselves!"

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3.2.3  Nerm_L  replied to  al Jizzerror @3.2.2    2 years ago
I see.  You appear to be opposed to "supply-side economics".

Yes, but supply-side economics is built upon much more than three pillars of lies.  Neoliberal Democrats like to point fingers at the Laffer curve because the Laffer curve focuses attention on taxes and big government.

Economic neoliberalism, at its core, is about the creation of money coupled with a phony notion that creation and distribution of money is governed by natural laws of economics.  And the neoliberal argument is that the rich just naturally become richer -- without having to produce anything.  Neoliberal economic prosperity and affluence depends upon ability to create money.  Supply-side economics is about supplying the economy with money.


The government can achieve a 5 pct increase in GDP by spending an addition $1 trillion.  Under normal conditions that additional government debt is purchased with money that has already been created.  But we've now entered an era where the Federal Reserve creates money to buy additional government debt.  When the Federal Reserve begins creating money to pay for government programs then deficits don't matter any longer.  If any administration cannot increase GDP under those conditions then they've really screwed up.

Imports and a trade deficit drains newly created money from the economy.  So, if the Federal Reserve creates $1 trillion to pay for government programs and the trade deficit reaches $1 trillion then they cancel each other.  The created money doesn't stay in the country; it's used to pay for imports.  Neoliberals do not use productive activities to create value; neoliberals use finance to create money whose value is determined by artificial scarcity.  That's where neoliberals get their argument that a trade deficit means we are trading something of no value (money) for something of tangible value (manufactured goods).  

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
3.2.4  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Nerm_L @3.2.3    2 years ago
Yes, but supply-side economics is built upon much more than three pillars of lies.

Okay, please explain how the three pillars are lies and how Trump's supply side approach was "honest".

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3.2.5  Nerm_L  replied to  al Jizzerror @3.2.4    2 years ago
Okay, please explain how the three pillars are lies and how Trump's supply side approach was "honest".

Please, explain how tariffs fit into supply-side economics.  Please, explain how raising taxes on the rich fit into supply-side economics.  Please, explain how stopping cheap labor at the border fits into supply-side economics.

Why were neoliberal Democrats so outraged about Trump's tariffs, renegotiated trade deals, limits on SALT deductions, and attempts to close the border to cheap labor illegally entering the country?

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
3.2.6  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Nerm_L @3.2.5    2 years ago
Please, explain how raising taxes on the rich fit into supply-side economics.

"Raising taxes on the rich" does NOT fit into "supply-side economics"

Here's the second fundamental 'pillar' of the supply-side model:

2.  Large personal tax cuts are supposed to increase labor supply (figure 4b). With the ensuing increases in labor demand and supply, employment is consequently supposed to increase.*

And here is the FIRST fundamental 'pillar' of the supply-side model:

1.  Large business tax cuts are supposed to increase labor demand.*

Obviously those two 'pillars' of the supply-side model are what Trump's tax cuts were based on.

* These 'pillars' of supply side economics were specified in a previous comment #3.2.2.  If you're going to ignore my comments; then you shouldn't try to play the home version of this discussion.

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
4  Tacos!    3 years ago
All of which makes Biden's first year in the White House the standout among the seven previous presidents, based on 10 market and economic indicators given equal weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, no one comes close to matching Biden's combination of No. 1 and No. 2 rankings for each of the measures:

While you were out . . . Trump called. He says, "You're welcome."

I kid, but only a little. Now personally, I think the economy is more complicated than just who is in the White House. But you don't get to spend 4 whole years giving Obama credit for the Trump-era economy and then turn around and claim that Biden accomplished some kind of revolutionary economic triumph in less than a year. 

Oct 2019: Joe Biden, in Scranton, Says Trump Owes Current Economy to Obama Years

July 2020: Obama Built Most of Trump’s Good Economy

Aug 2020: Data show Trump didn't 'build' a great economy. He inherited it.

Even if Biden and Congress had been working super hard on the economy all year (and we know they haven't), it's just not enough time to have an impact.

On the other hand, if you want to take full credit for these economic numbers, then you also get to take credit for the highest inflation rate . . . in 40 YEARS!

Investors brace for the highest inflation reading in nearly 40 years

And that's kind of important because it doesn't mean much if your wages increase while prices increase faster. It's not good news if GDP increases only because everything costs more.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1  TᵢG  replied to  Tacos! @4    3 years ago
Now personally, I think the economy is more complicated than just who is in the White House.

Demonstrably so!    To the point that it is a bit ridiculous to assign the quality of an economy to a single PotUS (or even to ALL PotUS').

For the most part a PotUS can harm an economy but a PotUS has very little influence to turn a bad/mediocre economy into a good (much less great) economy.   Certainly nothing that would be considered 'control' over the economy (as some like to believe).

We give PotUS' far too much credit / blame for the economy (especially the one in place while they are in office).

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.1.1  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  TᵢG @4.1    3 years ago
For the most part a PotUS can harm an economy but a PotUS has very little influence to turn a bad/mediocre economy into a good (much less great) economy.

Presidents can, with the help of Congress, pass a stimulus package (like The American Rescue Plan) that can help jump start the economy

"GDP growth in every incoming administration during the past four decades never exceeded 2.74% until 2021. Biden is now positioned to surpass Carter (5.01%) as the GDP champion of presidents since 1976. Much of the credit goes to The American Rescue Plan, which poured $66 billion into 36 million households and reduced the child poverty rate by 50%, helping the U.S. recover faster from the pandemic than most other nations.

The economy is poised to expand 5.5% in Biden's first year as president."

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.1.1    3 years ago
Presidents can, with the help of Congress, pass a stimulus package (like The American Rescue Plan) that can help jump start the economy

That I would consider to be more a power of Congress than the PotUS.   And even so, that is often hit/miss.   We (human beings) simply do not understand large domestic economies as a function of the global economy well enough to direct a domestic economy to a particular end.   We try sensible actions and hope for the best.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
4.1.3  bugsy  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.1.1    3 years ago
that can help jump start the economy

Wait a minute,,,,

You leftists have been preaching for a year now that Biden's economy was on fire and the best in modern times.

What is there to "jump start"?

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.1.4  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  bugsy @4.1.3    3 years ago
What is there to "jump start"?

Where were you in 2020?  The COVID pandemic caused a severe economic recession.

On June 8th, the The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared a recession, noting that the U.S. economy had fallen into contraction starting in February 2020. This marks the first U.S. recession since the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009.

Today nearly 22 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits, or about 13% of the labor force. By some measures, the total number of unemployed could be nearly double that figure. April retail sales fell nearly 22% year over year, by far the biggest monthly decline in the history of the index. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Survey sees the median consensus estimate for second-quarter GDP at -53.8%, which would be the worst reading in U.S. history.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
4.1.5  bugsy  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.1.4    3 years ago

Not what I said.

Leftists all over the country have been saying Biden has an economy on fire.

\The only reason Biden may hit a high GDP is because he is riding the recovery wave that Trump started before he left office. The economy is recovering because of Trump policies, not Biden.

Biden;s policies have caused record breaking inflation. Not exactly a "jump starter".

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.1.6  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  bugsy @4.1.5    3 years ago
Biden has an economy on fire.

Yes, the GDP is growing at a 6.5% rate.

Wages are growing too, as is inflation.

Here are some of the stimulus packages designed to " jump start " the economy (which was suffering from COVID):

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act , also known as the CARES Act , is a $2.2   trillion economic stimulus bill passed by the 116th U.S. Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump on March 27, 2020, in response to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States .  A  later bill increased the spending by more than $300 billion.

Unprecedented in size and scope, the legislation was the largest economic stimulus package in U.S. history, amounting to 10% of total U.S. gross domestic product .

An additional $900 billion in relief was attached to the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 , which was passed by Congress on December 21, 2020, and signed by President Trump on December 27, after some CARES Act programs being renewed had already expired. In March 2021, President Joe Biden and the 117th U.S. Congress passed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 , a $1.9 trillion COVID-relief package.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
4.1.7  bugsy  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.1.6    3 years ago

Problem is, wage growth is more than offset by inflation. There really is no real wage growth, thanks to Biden policies

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.8  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @4.1.7    3 years ago

Here is PEW research from 2018 (three years before Biden took office)

FT_18.07.26_hourlyWage_adjusted.png

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.9  Split Personality  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.8    3 years ago

Facts?  We don't need no stinking facts.jrSmiley_46_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.1.10  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.9    3 years ago

jrSmiley_100_smiley_image.jpg

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
4.1.11  Jack_TX  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.1.1    2 years ago
Presidents can, with the help of Congress, pass a stimulus package (like The American Rescue Plan) that can help jump start the economy

Most of that has yet to be implemented.

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.1.12  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Jack_TX @4.1.11    2 years ago
Most of that has yet to be implemented.

I performed a Google search on "implementation of the American Rescue Plan".  Above are the first eight results for you to check out.   

There were " About 15,200,000 results.  Should I list the rest of the results for you?

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
4.1.13  Dulay  replied to  bugsy @4.1.7    2 years ago

Actually, wage growth has been over 6% every month since April [April +15, May + 13, June + 12, July + 11, ect.] and the inflation rate hasn't. 

Opps...

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.1.14  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Dulay @4.1.13    2 years ago

Gonna need a link for that if you can come up with one.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
4.1.15  Sean Treacy  replied to  Dulay @4.1.13    2 years ago

w age growth has been over 6% every month since April [April +15, May + 13, June + 12, July + 11, ect.] and the inflation rate hasn't. 

Lol...

"Wages, though, have swelled during the period, with average hourly earnings up 4.9% year over year in October. However, compared with inflation, real hourly wages actually have declined more than 1.2% during the same time frame, according to the Labor Department."

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
4.1.17  Dulay  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4.1.14    2 years ago

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.1.18  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Dulay @4.1.17    2 years ago

I believe your link and subsequent chart are comparing year over year the same month NOT a month to month raise from July to August to September etc......

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
4.1.19  Dulay  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4.1.18    2 years ago
I believe your link and subsequent chart are comparing year over year the same month

That's how wage rates are cited Jim. Do you have another metric you'd like to share? 

If not...

Is 15 higher than the 6.8% inflation rate Jim? 

How about 13, 12 and 11? 

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.1.20  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Dulay @4.1.19    2 years ago

Your post made it sound like it was PER month over the previous month NOT the previous year. My mistake??

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
4.1.21  Sean Treacy  replied to  Dulay @4.1.16    2 years ago

You don't understand your chart, do you?

This is the relevant data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

 rom November 2020 to November 2021, real average hourly earnings decreased 1.6 percent, 
seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in 
the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this 
period. 

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
4.1.22  Dulay  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.1.21    2 years ago
This is the relevant data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Your link doesn't include that block quote Sean. Try harder...

BTFW, I get an extra chuckle when a BS post gets thumbs up...

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
4.1.24  Sean Treacy  replied to  Dulay @4.1.22    2 years ago

There you go. Did you figure out your mistake yet? Or are you intentionally trying to mislead people?

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
4.1.25  Dulay  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.1.24    2 years ago
There you go. Did you figure out your mistake yet?

The mistake was on YOUR part by posting the WRONG link. 

Or are you intentionally trying to mislead people?

No but you are. You are citing 'hourly wages', I cited data about WAGES. 

So take your apples and oranges argument elsewhere Sean. 

Oh and BTFW, I'm still waiting for you to tell me how many times the mods have shown me favoritism in that other seed. 

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.2  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Tacos! @4    3 years ago
On the other hand, if you want to take full credit for these economic numbers, then you also get to take credit for the highest inflation rate . . . in 40 YEARS!

The Federal Reserve Board is supposed to be in charge of reigning in inflation.

Do you think Biden should pursue federal price fixing to control inflation?

Biden released oil from our reserves to try to contain the rise in the price of oil (and therefore gas).

Here's what Bloomberg says about the inflation rate:

"Biden, like Carter, now faces the political fallout of the accelerating inflation from global supply chain breakdowns associated with the pandemic even though maintaining stable inflation and interest rates are the primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and the Fed said it's prepared to tighten monetary policy in 2022."

Record GDP growth is associated with inflation.  Inflation also was the result of the stimulus from the American Rescue Plan (which was supported by Mitch McConnell).

"GDP growth in every incoming administration during the past four decades never exceeded 2.74% until 2021. Biden is now positioned to surpass Carter (5.01%) as the GDP champion of presidents since 1976. Much of the credit goes to The American Rescue Plan, which poured $66 billion into 36 million households and reduced the child poverty rate by 50%, helping the U.S. recover faster from the pandemic than most other nations.

The economy is poised to expand 5.5% in Biden's first year as president."

 
 
 
Tacos!
Professor Guide
4.2.1  Tacos!  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.2    3 years ago

I just think any action on the economy takes time to develop. This inflation is something economists have been forecasting for years. As for the pandemic, I don’t think it is through with our economy. It’s too soon to start celebrating.

 
 
 
al Jizzerror
Masters Expert
4.2.2  seeder  al Jizzerror  replied to  Tacos! @4.2.1    3 years ago
As for the pandemic, I don’t think it is through with our economy. It’s too soon to start celebrating.

I agree.

Since only 61.6% of us are vaccinated, there will be lots of infection and reinfection.

I hope you are vaccinated (and boosted).

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.2.3  Split Personality  replied to  al Jizzerror @4.2.2    2 years ago

I just posted this elsewhere because you and I made the bulk of our $$ many years ago

and since the crash in 2008 the IR has been manipulated by the Fed not only to NOT exceed 2.2%

but they artificially kept it at 0.25 for 7 years

US Inflation Rate by Year: 1929 - 2023 (thebalance.com)

1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War
1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%)  
1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing
1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office
1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession
1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls
1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation
1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard
1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate
1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high
1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%)  
1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%)  
1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%)  
1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%)  
1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession
1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut
1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended
1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending
1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%)  
1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%)  
1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut
1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash
1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates
1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis
1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession
1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates
1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted
1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act

 
 

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