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 Some experts warn against the impulse to use crime data to score quick political points.

"​​Being a Republican or Democratic state or city is correlated with many other issues," David Weisburd, a professor of criminology and executive director of the Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy at George Mason University, wrote in an email to Yahoo News. "That means that the murder rate may be due to the state being Republican, or it may be due to the fact that Republican states have many other risk factors related to crime or murder rates. Even with a very comprehensive modeling of all of these factors, it is very difficult to get a valid causal result for explaining crime rates."

That argument cuts both ways, however. Weisburd also thinks the claims of Trump and other Republicans who say Democrats have caused a crime wave in the cities and states they govern are unfounded. "I don't think this argument can be supported no matter which way you go," Weisburd said.

I agree with this statement. I'm sure there is more involved than if a state is red or blue

I'm sure there is more involved than if a state is red or blue

Of course, it is. And this is the big problem when discussing this issue. Some want to make it political, instead of a societal issue. 

Actually, this does not surprise me. I grew up around gun toting rednecks.

When I cast my vote, I know it won't make much of a difference in this red state.

Come on Perrie! There is no difference between societal and political.

The state of mind and the worldview is the same.

meh, red states = republican majorities, so I like the long term odds.

We have gun violence down here all the time.

Someone got shot the other day.

I've heard more about violent crimes in the rural areas lately than I have about Little Rock

Everyone always says Jackson is bad. It can have its moments but I never had a problem there. There are some rural areas I would be more afraid of.

Same as in Arkansas. Newton and Searcy counties come to mind...."keep paddling! I hear banjos!"

Haha

Is that James Carville when he was 13?

Don't be silly! That is a young Tom Cotton...

I remember those damn commercials. Carvelle ice cream

put your glasses on, it's josh hawley...

Red states currently have far worse meth and oxycodone problems. 

Cheap Mexican meth especially adds to increasing violent crimes...

Trout,

Numbers comparison by percentage is almost worthless in situations like this.  A person needs the numbers to understand the severity of a problem.

If a jurisdiction had 2 murders in 2018 and 4 in 2019, then I could write that the murder rate had doubled from 2018 to 2019.

If a jurisdiction had 200 murders in 2018 and 400 in 2019, then I could write that the murder rate had doubled from 2018 to 2019.

Both statements are true, but I wouldn't want to base my police budget on anything except the actual numbers.

So when I read the following in this seed, I wondered what the actual numbers were.  Percentages don't really give an accurate picture of what is happening - which is why sometimes people use percentages to confuse people.

Although murder rates tend to be highest in the South, the biggest increases in 2020 were found in the Great Plains and Midwest, according to Third Way. The largest jumps were in Wyoming (91.7% higher than in 2019), South Dakota (69%), Wisconsin (63.2%), Nebraska (59.1%) and Minnesota (58.1%). Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska all voted for Trump and have Republican governors. Wisconsin and Minnesota voted for Biden and are led by Democrats.

I read that paragraph, too, and was at first shocked at Wyoming's murder rate. But as you pointed out there may be been only 1 murder in 2019 and over a dozen in 2020.

Thanks for your insightful analysis

Thanks for your insightful analysis

Thank you for appreciating it.  

Like you, I was shocked at Wyoming's murder rate so I decided to compare actual numbers between California and Arkansas.  I chose Arkansas because I was raised there and California because of its population and I lived in the Camp Pendleton area in the mid-1970s.

I easily found a newspaper article about California's number of murders in 2020.  Arkansas, as usual in my personal experience, makes things more difficult.  I found detailed data about every crime reported in every county in Arkansas and found the murder total in the report.

Anyway, Arkansas murder total in 2020 was 323.  California murder total in 2020 was 2202.  There were around 1900 more murders in California in 2020.  This is why I want the actual numbers with the percentages so my mind wasn't fooled into believing that Arkansas had more than 2000 murders in 2020 and I knew nothing about it.  I still have a lot of friends and family who live in Northwest Arkansas. 

The comprehensive Arkansas reports on all crimes by location and demographic can be found at

Crime Statistics - Arkansas Department of Public Safety

and here's an overview from the LA Times on California.

California homicides jump 31% in 2020, reaching highest total in 13 years - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

SACRAMENTO — 

Homicides in California jumped 31% last year, making it the deadliest year since 2007, and Black people accounted for nearly one-third of all victims as the nation’s most populous state struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic and concerns over racial injustice, according to reports released Thursday.

The 2,202 homicides last year were 523 more than in 2019, while the rate increased by a similar margin — from 4.2 to 5.5 homicides per 100,000 people.

That’s the most slayings since 2,258 people were killed in 2007, and the rate is the highest since 2008. Black people make up 6.5% of California’s population but accounted for 31% of all victims last year. Latino people accounted for 45% of victims, while 16% were white.

From what I can tell, we (Mississippi) had about 800 in 2020. Broken down though it was like split, 47% suicide and 47% homicide.

From what I can tell, we (Mississippi) had about 800 in 2020. Broken down though it was like split, 47% suicide and 47% homicide.

Is suicide considered a murder?

Does a person who fails at suicide get arrested for attempted murder?  

Usually not but pregnant women are sometimes prosecuted.

Usually not but pregnant women are sometimes prosecuted.

Ridiculous.  It may be a chemical/hormonal imbalance caused by the pregnancy that prompted the suicide attempt.  

nytimes

The article is behind a pay wall.  

I would subscribe to the NYTimes, but I don't have enough hours in the day to read everything that I subscribe to now.  Plus, sometimes I have to take breaks from reading anything except some fluff and funny stuff so I have some balance in my life.

thats pretty much what it was too,  i think if i remember right there were 3 murders ( non justified ) in 2019 , and and 5 in 2020 , all pretty much to do with and about drugs or money for drugs owed .

2 0f the 5 in 2020, happened about 8 miles from my house, double homicide it took them almost 2 years to solve . 

when I was working construction in wyoming in the 70's I had hair down to my shoulders. it was a running joke whenever we went out the eat about which redneck was going to approach us first and ask to buy "pep pills" from us. the dump was a wasteland of antelope carcasses, even in the off season. when the high school let out in the afternoon it caused a traffic jam from all the wannabe cowboys waiting to pick up their underage girlfriends. in rawlins, the brothel next to the train station was still in operation.

I will trust your rememberances about how things were here 50 years ago, my 80 year old uncle was out here back then and tells me things were pretty wild and open  .

still a lot of animal carcasses out in the great beyond , not just speed goats , still havent got them trained to read the crossing signs , (as evidenced by the number of tourons and out of staters that are being roughed up up in yellowstone , hank the tank is up to goring 5 now , one more and he becomes an ACE).

 As for the "pep pills" , they are readily available nowdays at just about any stop and go, they are just known as "energy drinks" like monster , or red bull , mixed with a mnt dew , mostly a caffine/sugar overload , i have even heard some have a touch of bovine semen mixed in .

cant tell you the brothel situation but i hear some still exist , but never could figure out why pay for something if someone is giving it away for free or at the least the cost of a couple drinks , unless that doesnt work for some , i guess the girls that give it away were just being selective back then . but i will take your word on the brothel situation .

the townsend 101 club, right next to the train station. the locals called it the one on one club. I liked working construction there in the summer. winter there sucked. the great thing was no site cleanup at the end of the day, since the wind blew most of the time and all of the trash was on its way to nebraska by then.

Well yeah, Republican controlled states have democratic controlled cities. Hard for the State to do much when the locals embrace crime. 

Take Missouri, Saint Louis accounts for 5% of the state's population and 36% of its murders. It's controlled by Democrats and elected a pro crime DA.  

Oh come on Sean. Every time this is pointed out, your go-to is St. Louis. What about all the rural areas that have an increase? Why do you not see them?

What about all the rural areas that have an increase? Why do you not see them?

Perrie, 

I live in SW Missouri, there is crime here, but in the rural areas without an influx of criminals, the local criminals are usually a very small percentage of the population because they are easily identified and caught at young ages.  At one time, people literally did know their neighbors and their neighbors' neighbors.

The first time I left a rural community, I moved to California as a military wife.  It was evening when I reached the apartment that my husband had rented and he had returned to the base.  I knocked on my next door neighbor's door and she was damned unfriendly.  Luckily, her husband was from Oklahoma and could identify my accent.  He basically told her that this was how people from Arkansas acted.  LOL!

Mocowgirl,

I realize what you are saying, but the overwhelming demos show otherwise. 

But this is not my point.

There are many reasons for crime everywhere. It is not always political, but some here would have you believe so. 

Btw, my daughter now lives in Davis, CA, for her Ph.D. and she tells me how friendly people there are. My worry is that she will like it so much and never move back home.

There are many reasons for crime everywhere. It is not always political, but some here would have you believe so. 

I agree.  

You are preaching to the choir.

I am married to a narcissistic sociopath.  He is as apolitical as a person can get.

It would be more helpful if people could identify and address the reasons that people commit crimes, but that would be more difficult than just picking a political party like it was a sports team.

As far as California, I was in Oceanside and mainly had interactions with women whose husbands were in the Marine Corps.  When I lived in Fallbrook, the locals I met were friendly, but there were fewer military people living there so there was way less crime than there was in Oceanside in the 1970s.  Camp Pendleton was (still is) home to thousands of young men who were away from home for the first time.  Oceanside was their playground.

Every time this is pointed out, your go-to is St. Louis

Not at all. You can do it with any city because democratic votes correlate with murder rates.

Louisiana has the most violence per capita for a state.  New Orleans makes up about  8% of the population and 26% of the state's murders.  Hasn't had a Republican mayor since the 19th century. 

Even at the county level, despite Republicans controlling the overwhelming majority of counties, the most violent are almost exclusively Democratic strongholds.  

Take Coahoma County Mississippi which has the second most murders per capita at the county level (behind New Orleans) .  It's very rural. It overwhelmingly voted for Biden in 2020. 

If you want to know where the most dangers localities in the US are, look where Democrats are in charge.  

Back in the early 80's I was stationed at the Naval Hospital at Camp Pendelton and Oceanslime had one of the worst crime rates in the country, but most folks never associated political affiliation with said crime rate that I was aware of. Fortunately, I and my family lived on base and were never really exposed to the crime rate on a personal level.

Fortunately, I and my family lived on base and were never really exposed to the crime rate on a personal level.

This was my husband's first duty station.  We qualified for housing in Stirling Homes.  We drove through the area only once as I recall.

It was very, very unsafe housing from what I heard.  People stole everything that wasn't nailed down and double padlocked.  One woman even had her baby stolen from a stroller on her front step.

Even living off base, I had to remember to lock my car everywhere I went.  It wasn't something we did in rural/small-town Arkansas in the 1970s.  Nor did I have to do it when I moved back to rural small-town Arkansas in the mid 80s until I left in the mid-90s.  We even left the keys in the vehicles overnight.  The keys were always left in the ignition in the bass boat.

In the early 2000s, things changed to the point that people living in NW Arkansas were beginning to live like the lowest ranking Marine families stuck in the Stirling Homes in the 1970s.   The sharp rise in criminal activity wasn't because of the homegrown rural folks.

your go-to is St. Louis. What about all the rural areas that have an increase? Why do you not see them?

Maybe, because they are either not reported or there isn't that much of an increase?  

I googled for more info.  This is what I found about murder in Missouri.  It is a pretty long article.   Some highlights.

Missouri sees worst year ever for gun violence in 2020 | The Kansas City Star

They were among 689 people shot and killed in Missouri in 2020, a year that will likely be recorded as the state’s deadliest ever for gun violence. The historic level of homicides was driven by the state’s two largest cities, with 266 gun homicides in St. Louis and 161 in Kansas City. Both cities have for years ranked high among U.S. cities for gun violence. But Springfield, the state’s third-largest city, saw its fatal shootings more than double, with 23.

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas wrote to Missouri Gov. Mike Parson in July requesting a special session of the state legislature to address violent crime, saying in the letter, “no issue has presented a greater challenge to my city than the epidemic of violent crime, particularly gun violence, on the streets of Kansas City.”

Real solutions require more than policing, experts say. In Missouri, anti-violence workers in urban neighborhoods and university criminologists agree the underlying causes of violence are out of law enforcement’s control.

While researchers study the increase in homicides during the pandemic year, the number of gun suicides is likely to be even larger. In past years they have increased from 487 in 2010 to 726 in 2018.

Black people in Missouri are 14 times more likely than white people to die by gun homicide, according to research from Everytown for Gun Safety. When including suicide, Black Missourians are three times more likely to die from guns.

Black people in Missouri are 14 times more likely than white people to die by gun homicide, according to research from Everytown for Gun Safety. When including suicide, Black Missourians are three times more likely to die from guns.

Some very interesting info about suicides in Missouri.  There is a good graph at the link below that details the leading cause of death by age.

Where-We-Stand-2019-Suicide-Data-Brief.pdf (mimh.edu)

1,130 Missourians died by suicide in 2019. While rates continued to climb 
from 2009 through 2018, suicide rates dropped by 7.2% between 2018 and 2019.
▪ Suicide is the 9th leading cause of death in Missouri.
▪ Missouri’s suicide rate is 15th highest in the nation. 
▪ Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death among 10-17 year olds. More than
60% of these suicides are firearm related.
▪ A large majority (75%) of those who die by suicide are White males. However,
the greatest decrease in suicides from 2018-2019 was among Black males.
▪ Suicide rates are highest among 25-64 year olds.
▪ 60% of all suicides involve firearms, followed by suffocation (24%) and
poisoning/overdose (11%).
▪ Rural areas in Missouri have slightly higher suicide rates than urban areas.

 Suicides are consistently higher among Whites.
• Suicides among Blacks increased between 2015 and 
2018 but decreased between 2018 and 2019

• Rural areas in Missouri have slightly higher suicide 
rates than metropolitan areas.
• Differences in rural and urban suicide rates are less 
compared to prior years.

 Suicide rates are highest in the Kansas City and 
southwest regions of the state and lowest in the 
St. Louis metropolitan area.

• The number of suicides is highest in the St. Louis 
metropolitan area (342) followed by the Kansas 
City area (278). Numbers are lowest in northeast 
and northwest Missouri (39 and 38 respectively).

Take Missouri, Saint Louis accounts for 5% of the state's population and 36% of its murders.

Are the stats on Kansas City similar?

Pretty similar but not as bad.  Kansas City accounted for 25% of the murders with 8% of the population. 

So between the two of them, they accounted for half the murders and about 13% of the population. 

Take Missouri, Saint Louis accounts for 5% of the state's population and 36% of its murders. It's controlled by Democrats and elected a pro crime DA.  

So what you are saying is that more guns doesn't equal less crime...right? 

There was a total of 18 murders in Wyoming in 2020, or 3.1 for every 100,000 people — the 10th lowest murder rate among states. 

Wyoming is 49th in population, too

Can you hear an echo there? Or is it too flat....

Could send smoke signals I guess.

Wyoming is 49th in population, too

Yes.  This is why I would do further research on the demographics and circumstances of the murders if the goal was to understand (and maybe prevent) murders.

Are the towns beings terrorized by gangs, newcomers or even their own hometown murderer?  

The Chilling Murder of Skidmore Town Bully Remains a Mystery 41 Years Later | by Sal | Lessons from History | Medium

Ken Rex McElroy was shot dead inside his pick-up truck on the 10th of July, 1981, via a storm of bullets. The murder occurred in broad daylight, with as many as sixty eye-witnesses present, including the wife of the deceased. According to some witnesses, the shooting lasted for an entire minute.

Despite the murder having occurred during the day and in the town center, all the witnesses claimed to have seen nothing. The wife of the deceased, Trena McElroy, did indeed name a   suspect , but no one else corroborated her account. All of this begs the question: who killed Ken McElroy and why was everyone so reticent about the killer’s identity?

The Bully Who Terrorized the Whole Town

McElroy was a brutal man who terrorized the town of Skidmore, Missouri for decades before his murder. He was involved in a variety of crimes throughout his life, from petty theft to attempted murder. He began his life of crime with theft, usually rustling cattle and other livestock to later sell at high prices in an auction. During this time, he also supplemented his income from thievery by training stolen hunting dogs and later selling them.

Though he was often caught stealing, he was always able to avoid jail time in a variety of different ways. Initially, this involved having his friends give false testimonies in court to strengthen his alibis, allowing him to go scot-free, as any evidence of his theft had already been fenced. Later, as he graduated onto more serious crimes, he was able to hire himself a   competent defense attorney   with the spoils of his criminal ways.

As time went on, McElroy became increasingly brazen with the crimes he would engage in. He allegedly raped 12-year old Trena McCloud, marrying her when she was 14 and pregnant with his child to avoid statutory rape charges. In order to get the parents’ consent, he burned down their house and shot their dog. After their marriage, Trena became an accomplice to McElroy’s criminal acts. She would vouch for him and corroborate his alibis, only further strengthening McElroy’s ability to circumvent the law.

Despite his terrible reputation in the town, McElroy hated being called out on his ways, often holding people at gun-point if they confronted him. Needless to say, McElroy intimidated, harassed, and often assaulted the citizens of Skidmore for decades with ostensible impunity. After a while, the town had decided that enough is enough.

Wyoming is very beautiful....over where Yellowstone is

Once you get to Cheyenne....meh

I saw a documentary about this. Afterward, the whole town began a slow decline due to an upswing in violent crime

I saw a documentary about this.

Interesting.  I'll look for it.  My (ex)husband worked at a large ranch in the area in the 1970s.  My ex had met some of McElroy's family, but never McElroy.  We used to bird hunt in the area in the 1980s.  I never met anyone who wanted to talk about what happened in Skidmore and I'm glad because I did not want to know.  I read the book "In Broad Daylight".  I thought that law enforcement should have done its job.  

Afterward, the whole town began a slow decline due to an upswing in violent crime

In the 80s, the town was hole in the road that you would miss if you blinked.  It isn't much smaller by the numbers than it was when McElroy was killed.  As far was the upswing in violent crime, according to Wiki, one man disappeared in 2001 and one pregnant women was kidnapped by a woman who killed her for the baby in 2004.

That documentary sounds like sensationalist journalism.

What would this documentary look like if they done one for the murders and disappearances for the years 1981 to 2004 for New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas or any city with a population over 50,000 people?  How many hours would it take to documents all of the disappearances and murders?  How many days/weeks/months would it take for a person to watch all of it?

Skidmore's wiki page tells about the murders/disappearances.  

Skidmore, Missouri - Wikipedia

This is Dallas' crime report in Wiki.  No names, no nothing.  Skidmore is painted to be a very violent community, but Dallas is considered "safe" if viewed in the appropriate context.

Dallas - Wikipedia

Crime [ edit ]

See also: 2016 shooting of Dallas police officers

According to the FBI, a city to city comparison of crime rates can be misleading, because recording practices vary from city to city, citizens report different percentages of crimes from one city to the next, and the actual number of people physically present in a city is unknown. ^[149] With that in mind, Dallas's violent crime rate (12.06 per 1,000 people) is lower than St Louis (24.81), Detroit (24.22), Baltimore (16.96), Philadelphia (15.62), Cleveland (15.47), Miami (15.09), Washington, D.C . (14.48), Kansas City (14.44) and Boston (13.39). However, Houston (11.69), Los Angeles (7.87), and New York City (6.38) have lower violent crime rates than Dallas. ^[150]

I believe wyoming is the least populated state , vermont barely beat us there, almost like we are in a competition there .  another thing to consider , is suicides are usually counted as murders , and according to the state stats , 80% of the deaths attributed to murder or gun deaths  , is suicides , and sadly wyoming has the highest suicide rate in the nation .

The way the state trys to break it down is justifiable homicides , unjustifable , accidental  and suicide .

I believe Alaska has the lowest population in the USA. If you're talking lower 48, then yeah, WY wins

first number is 2020 census , second is 2010 census the last is percentage of change .

 there is the 4 lowest populated areas .

US States by Population 2021/2022 (populationu.com)

There are some "hidden " and unspoken of places here , just have to get of the "beaten path " so to speak , but i will admit , one does have to go through a lot of what some would call "waste lands " to find them .

The place is definitely not for everyone .

I stand corrected

The term Red States, Blue States isn't very useful.  20 years ago, it meant which way a state voted in presidential elections, so you would have called AK and WV Red as they voted for Bush even though their four US Senators and the majority of elected people at state level were Democrats.  Kerry won with wide margins in several states that had Repub governors.  Today some people use this way others base it on their assumptions about the majority of the citizens or who is Governor.  

Apply this construct to murder rates or meth addiction rates or any number of issues is problematic and obscures more than it illuminates underlying issues.   

Well, I would have to agree with that. There are many reasons for crime. That is why I am tired of reading that it's one party's fault or another's. 

Typically crime, particularly homicide, data in expressed in the number of murders let's say per every 100,000 people in an area (be it a state or a city).   That is a metric that can be tracked over time and can be used to help allocate resources to combat various types of crimes.  Sometimes people use the percentage change of those statistics from year to year improperly or in such a way as to create political animus  . HERE you will find a pretty good chart of the homicide rates (# per 100,000 people) for the various States.  This is based on compiled FBI data from their UCR Crime Data and Crime Data Explorer databases from 2011 to 2020 (2021 data not yet available).  The chart also indicates the total number of homicides by state which can also be helpful in directing policy, although certainly county and city data is more critical for directing local crime fighting resources..

The FBI data indicates increases in crime rates in almost every state in the country in 2019 and 2020 and the analysis I've read attributes much of that to the pandemic and reactions to it, but points out that 2020 rates are still lower than they were in the 70s and 80s.  The information presented in the FBI data somewhat supports the findings of the seeded article based on Third Way study, but not exactly.  It does show that in 2020 the southern states did have higher homicide rates than did the rest of the country, but it omits the fact that they have always had the higher rates even when many of them were "blue states".  I don't think that the party in control of a state or a city really has much to do with murder or other crime rates there other than perhaps some impact of the policies put in place to combat such crimes and the funding of the local police forces.  Homicide rates are typically higher in larger cities and can change dramatically from year to year without much regard to which party is running the city.   Some FBI UCR data on City crime rates in 2019 can be found in the chart HERE and can be sorted by crime type.

The problem i found while looking at the Uniform Crime Reports was that not all jurisdictions report or are required to report what happens in their jurisdictions , so at best , it is only partial information , and can hardly truthfully be used for comparison since it is incomplete data .

True enough, but that is also true of any attempt to build an accurate database from multiple sources.  It is certainly better than anecdotal observations tainted by partisan analysis.

Republican politicians routinely claim that cities run by Democrats have been experiencing crime waves caused by failed governance

Republican politicians routinely lie.

The District of Columbia leads the country in murder rate, violent crime rate, and overall crime rate.  If politicians cannot address the issue of crime where they work and live then why should we expect them to be able to solve the problem for the rest of the country?

The crime data across the board suggests that politics won't effectively address the problem of crime.  It doesn't seem to matter if Democrats or Republicans are in charge, the District of Columbia remains the worst place for all types of crime in the nation.