Economy Week Ahead: Imports, Jobless Claims, Inflation - WSJ
By: WSJ
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Inflation readings from China and the U.S. highlight this week's round of economic data.
Monday
China's imports are expected to surge in May due to rising commodity prices and the low base from a year earlier, according to 16 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The country's imports are forecast to grow 53% from one year ago. Outbound shipments, a key engine of growth for China's economy, are expected to rise 32.3%. The country's trade surplus is expected to touch $47.9 billion compared with $42.9 billion in April.
Tuesday
The U.S. trade deficit hit a record in March as federal stimulus reinvigorated consumers and pushed demand for imports to a fresh high. Economists are forecasting a narrower trade gap in April, though the overall figure will likely remain elevated as the U.S. reopening gathers strength.
Wednesday
China's factory-gate inflation is expected to hit more than a decade high in May, triggered by the rising commodity prices, according to a median forecast of 16 economists. The producer-price index is projected to climb 8.6% from a year earlier, the highest level since August 2008. Meanwhile, the consumer-price index is expected to have risen 1.5% annually in May compared with April's 0.9% expansion.
Thursday
The European Central Bank releases a policy statement and staff forecasts. In March, the ECB pledged to accelerate purchases under a €1.85 trillion bond-buying program in an effort to hold down borrowing costs amid sluggish economic growth. Now, with Covid-19 vaccinations rising, pandemic restrictions easing, activity accelerating and inflation rising above the central bank's target, some economists are looking for signs those purchases could soon be scaled back.
U.S. consumer prices rose in April by the most in any 12-month period since 2008, intensifying deliberations over proper levels of fiscal stimulus, monetary policy and whether surging inflation is temporary or the start of a potentially damaging price spiral. Economists expect another hefty gain for the consumer-price index in May, though a second elevated reading is unlikely to settle the debate over inflation's medium-term trajectory.
U.S. jobless claims hit a fresh pandemic low at the end of May, adding to signs of a healing labor market. Economists are forecasting another decline in the week ending June 5 as employers hang onto workers while the economy continues to reopen.
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"Finance ministers from the world’s largest economies this weekend moved a step closer—they think—to new rules to tax large companies. Ignore the back-slapping about revenues and “fairness.” This deal is bad news for economies recovering from the pandemic, and especially the U.S.
The agreement concerns negotiations at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for tax rules that would affect more than 130 countries. Finance chiefs from the G-7 economies, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, say they’ve settled key sticking points.
One is that they want to implement a new method to tax global tech giants based on where the companies earn revenue rather than where they are headquartered. Another is a global minimum corporate tax, with a rate of “at least 15%.” The third is that the U.S. will participate, since President Biden and Ms. Yellen are the first U.S. leaders to believe this could possibly be in America’s interests."
Nothing Biden has done as President has been in Americas best interest.
And I see that oil has hit $70 a barrel, first time since Oct 2018.
Nothing in the world like being energy dependent, is there. /s
It's on it's way to $100 dollars a barrel.
Nothing like governmental shutdowns of US pipelines (Governor Whitless is trying to one up Biden by trying to shut down a pipeline that has been active since the 1960's); foreign computer hacking to shut down others; and over seas crisis in the Middle East (what else is new) to drive up oil prices and threaten a very fragile US economy that is barely getting restarted after a pandemic.
I am sure some of our friends on the left will be along any moment to tell us how this is all Trump's fault; and Biden is just dealing with his mess.
They are already claiming that it is a world wide problem and has nothing to do with Biden's radical policies!
It may be a world wide problem; but like Jennifer Granholm did when she had Michigan in a single state recession 2 years before the rest of the US, Biden's policies are exasperating the situation.
And I can only assume that as with Trump a world wide problem can easily get nailed to the current president.