The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading - POLITICO
By: POLITICO
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.
Top policy officials on Joe Biden's campaign are preparing for a fall economic debate that might look very different than the one predicted at the start of the pandemic in March. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO
In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump's chances at reelection.
Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.
"We are about to see the best economic data we've seen in the history of this country," he said.
The former Cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.
"Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken," Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged Depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth ever.
Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.
Furman's counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. "This is my big worry," said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, "It's high — high, high, high, high."
And top policy officials on the Biden campaign are preparing for a fall economic debate that might look very different than the one predicted at the start of the pandemic in March. "They are very much aware of this," said an informal adviser.
Furman's case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.
Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.
The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
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Some may have seen this Politico article over the weekend. It leads to the question: if Donald Trump was such an evil figure (As in xenophobic, racist, ignorant, selfish, greedy, etc.) and thus easy to defeat, why are democrats so worried about the American economy coming back?
Our thanks to Politico for coming clean on what progressives are thinking.
Great article. I seeded the DML News article about the Politico article. The actual original here is a good reminder as to what the democrats fear most, Americans going back to work in huge numbers.
I read the original a few days ago. I had to dig to get it, it didn't last long on the Politico site.
It doesnt matter if the Dow Jones goes up to 100,000.
Trump is a menace who is not fit for office.
Does it matter to you if we can get those 38 Million jobs back?
I wonder if it matters to Dr Fauci. Unfortunately, he still has his job.
We can get the jobs back with Joe Biden as president.
Trump is an out of control fool who is doing lasting damage to the social fabric of our country.
Now he is demanding the right to lie on twitter.
That would be when blue state Governors fully re-ope their states.
Unfortunately, that won't work. You saw how much damage Fauci's 2 months did, right?
You have to give Trump his acknowledgement on what he has done towards unemployment. Trump is personally responsible for removing over 100,000 people from the job market, as of today.
Corona virus death count for the USA
"personally responsible"?????????????????????
Are you really friggin' serious? What'd he do - go to their houses and push the virus up their noses????
Where do you come up with this crap????
Yes, personally responsible.
Trump personally chose inaction when this country needed action the most. Even when it was too late and America was in the middle of this pandemic, Trump personally has chosen to ignore his job for federal coordination of testing and relief efforts.
Nah, the people doing the real damage to our union are the TDS ridden folks who nearly four years later still haven't gotten over that their chosen one was beaten fair and square by Trump. The guy who had no chance against her. The guy who had no foreseeable path to an Electoral College win. The guy who "deplorables" supported. The guy who the mass media hated and still does today
Their actions are unconscionable really but most are too deluded to ever see it. Delusion tends to do that .....
Democrats mainly fear that after being fairly beaten Trump won't leave...
Where have I heard that before?
Its like deja vu all over again
I think they forgot their history. There was the president who presided over the Great Depression, yet never did manage to solve it. Trying to do the right thing got him reelected 3 more times! Then there was the President who staked his re-election on the tremendous issues involving the preservation the Union and eradicating slavery. He was re-elected in the midst of the bloody Civil War!
Trying to do what is right counts.
If democrats need to blame Trump for the China virus or the unemployment that flowed from following the expert's recommendations, then they never had much of a case against Trump to begin with.