As the planet burns, a new Cold War over critical minerals
By: Jordy Lee and Morgan Bazilian, opinion contributors, THE HILL
I'm going to try running this seed again to see if there are any NT members who are scholarly on such matters in the hopes of seeing their civil comments about it.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
As the planet burns, a new Cold War over critical minerals
© Getty Images As the planet burns, a new Cold War over critical minerals
The recent deadly heat wave in the Pacific Northwest only underscored the dire consequences of continued inaction in the face of climate change. As the second largest contributor to climate change emissions, the increasing incidence and severity of heat waves, droughts, and forest fires should be a clear wake-up call to the United States. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been neglecting low-carbon technologies for decades, and now the raw materials and chemicals needed to build them are almost exclusively controlled by China. If the U.S. wants to get out from under China's thumb while avoiding conflict, then it must create effective mineral policy by rebuilding innovation capabilities, partnering with industry, and leveraging the government's role as a market actor.
A report published by the International Energy Agency just last month shows that demand for lithium can be expected to grow as much as 4000 percent by 2040. With nearly complete control of the critical minerals that are essential for low-carbon technologies, China has significant geopolitical power and leverage over multiple U.S. industries.
The Biden-Harris administration is also acutely aware of America's supply chain problems and has ordered more direct action to address short-term disruptions. This is undoubtedly one important step, but it will also mean directly confronting China - potentially positioning the U.S. for a new type of cold war.
Producing minerals and metals domestically is a viable option for the U.S. to combat China's stranglehold, but the U.S. isn't well equipped to fight on that front. Mines in the U.S. can take up to 20 years to open, while China's extractive industries have been streamlined since the 1990s. For more common materials like steel, they already produce more than the rest of the world combined. For certain technologies like batteries, they control 80% of the world's raw material refining , 77 percent of the world's cell capacity, and 60 percent of the world's component manufacturing.
A materials cold war isn't inevitable, but the weaponization of capital markets has become relatively common-place, and the United States is going to have to take swift and decisive action to avoid conflict.
First, for U.S. industry partners to move away from safer investments and into critical minerals, there need to be guarantees and procurement agreements. The U.S. government should use the Defense Production Act to provide capital, interest-free loans, or forward contracts for commodities that have unstable prices. This would be similar to government-led efforts during the Cold War to grow the U.S. aluminum and titanium industries by reducing risk to investors. The act was also famously used to combat shortages during the coronavirus pandemic.
Second, companies also need to know that the U.S. supports the mining industry, not only in developing a domestic market, but also in promoting sustainable development of the industry. The mining and metals industry is currently considered to be worse than oil and gas in terms of environmental and social risk , and it has struggled with investments as a result. Creating new environmental and social standards as part of its loan or permitting programs, or as a regulatory requirement, could ensure that the mining industry also gets support from outside sources (social or otherwise).
Finally, government support for education cannot be considered partisan anymore. It is easy to talk about mining and critical minerals in general terms, but China controls many critical minerals because the U.S. just doesn't have the technical expertise to compete. Young, technical experts are needed to revitalize the mining industry, but enrollment into relevant college programs has been plummeting. If the U.S. government can offer better student loans, or student-loan forgiveness, and make it clear that students will be graduating into a well-funded, climate-fighting industry, then they would be more willing to enroll in mining engineering programs.
As a nation we have spent so much time preparing for a better tomorrow that we may have neglected to get the materials we will need to actually build it. If the U.S. wants to take direct action to fight climate change and save the lives of its people, then it will need the mining and metals industry.
Morgan Bazilian is the Director of the Payne Institute and a Professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Jordy Lee is a Program Manager at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
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I've often wondered, in light of all the sanctions and bans and challenges that America has foisted upon China over the last little while, rallying allies to pressure China, besides the demonizing and interference with China's domestic affairs, that China has not used its near-control of such minerals and rare earth metals as a weapon to counter America's "Tonya Harding" method in attempting to suppress and contain China.
China has done a pretty good job of rallying America's allies by itself. Your statement itself is a fine example of "Tonya Harding" style diplomacy that you are accusing of America. If China does not get its way it will take its rare earth metals and go home. Geesh!
Please educate me - what "Tonya Harding" method has China used with the purpose of convincing or forcing other nations to pressure America, not use American corporate services, put financial pressures on America to try to force it to its knees? Has China used a "Quad" or a "Five Eyes" or gone to Europe and told them not to deal with America?
My first comment voiced my wonderment that China has NOT "got even" for what America has been doing to it. The new Chinese envoy in America in recently meeting with Wendy Sherman has been reported to have been trying to get America to renew a mutually beneficial relationship with China.
Apparently the Hu Xijin statement of -
"China has a strong production capability, including producing additional long-range missiles with conventional warheads that target military objectives in Australia when the situation becomes highly tense."
Probably didn't get much play in China. Nor did the 2019 threat about rare earths, nor the 2021 review of rare earth metals as a national security issue. etc. etc. etc.
China is fairly consistent in threatening devastating consequences, if anything remotely unflattering is said.
You may not be getting a good view of western media. But we can't get a good view of China via the western media, with all the threats to western reporters from inside China.
You have knowledge of threats that I don't. For example, can you provide a link to the 2019 rare earth threat, and what in the 2021 review is a threat to America? Is the review Chinese or American?
The 2021 and bit of history over these items.
Not sure if it will make it through your filters.
It didn't. No surprise. If you were to copy and paste the story onto a comment I could get to see it. My brain is not made of stone and I do want to learn.
I'll try to extract the relevant, as it goes on and on and on some more (If you need the whole thing that I can give it a try)...
The Global Times quoted a Beijing-based energy analyst as saying that the slump in shipments of REE ore to the lowest level since 2015 was partly due to a government policy of promoting higher-value exports.
"Rare earth ore exports are limited in value, and the global demand for raw materials is relatively low," said Liu Enqiao of Anbound Consulting.
But Liu added that the decline "might be partly due to China's tightening of regulations on strategic resources" under the country's new export control law, which took effect on Dec. 1.
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The national security curbs come nearly seven years after the WTO confirmed a ruling against China's previous attempts to impose export restrictions on environmental and domestic demand grounds in a case brought by the United States, the European Union and Japan.
But whatever the reason given for the controls, China has made no mystery of its motives for restricting REE exports.
On its web page, the Global Times cited earlier reports describing the new law as a "deterrent," a "bargaining chip" and a "tool of reprisal" against the United States.
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The threat of retaliation against the United States mirrors China's ban of REE exports to Japan in 2010 following the detention of a Chinese fishing boat captain who rammed Japanese patrol boats in contested waters of the East China Sea.
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"Lest the implication be missed, Renmin Ribao, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, wrote, 'We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side's ability to safeguard its development rights and interests,'" Dreyer quoted the paper as saying.
"Don't say we didn't warn you," Renmin Ribao said.
...
Okay, thanks. Yes, I do see that China will retaliate against the nasty things that are being done to it. So my first comment is not really correct - China does not hold back tit-for-tat. But I do repeat what I said above:
However, I suppose that is a hopeless request since Biden has made it abundently clear that he cannot appear to be "soft on China" (do what is reasonable and right and more of a benefit for the American people) due to the image of the Democrat Party approaching the midterm elections.
The issue is with China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy that began during the Trump admin. As it was deemed the relationship with the U.S. could not really get any lower, the effort was put forth to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies. However, Chinese diplomats did not limit their "Trump" like rhetoric to the U.S. and or its allies, but to several countries that were not necessarily friends of the U.S., which is now continuing and hardening the U.S. and its allies stances towards Beijing, while some countries that were wary of the U.S. are now leaning towards the U.S. and its allies.
Enough for tonight. Past midnight here.
Good night. Sleep well. I'll be eating lunch in a few minutes.
Enjoy your lunch..heading towards tea here...
I know that "tea" can mean something more substantial than a cup of tea and some pastry, so what do you mean by it?....as we allow most of the others to sleep.
Evening..Tea is the equivalent of your dinner...
Here it has always been, breakfast, lunch and tea...But as with alot of things it is now becoming dinner, following the USA...Even to the point the younger generation shovel their food in with just a fork..
We were taught to always use your knife and fork together when eating food..Cutting your food up then just using a fork to eat was unheard of..
We also have morning tea and afternoon tea..Basically it is just a snack before your main meal..in a few hours time...
Dinner has also been called supper. Are you what the French call a "fork-switcher" (or is it knife-switcher?). I am, I guess. However for the past 15 years I've been eating with chopsticks mostly, of course (except for breakfast).
Ahhh no switching involved. Hang to the knife and fork at all times cut your food up and use the knife to push the food onto the fork and eat...never heard of a switcher...see learn something every day...
Sorry if off topic...not our fault the others live on the wrong side of the world...🤣🤣🤣
So you hold the fork in your left hand, knife in right, and don't switch? (assuming you're right handed) That's how the French eat.
Hmm never taken much notice of the French but it is the way the Brits eat...hence our heritage and coming here.
We did stop a pub in the States back in the 80's dead in its tracks ..ordered our food tucked in and everything stopped and people were starring at us..OK...what's the problem..then the penny dropped the way we were eating.. Was rather hilarious and people were asking us where we were from as we spoke funny..
Nah you mob speak funny, we speak normal... Was a great night..
LOL You and I SPELL normal, as well.
Attention Moderators: As you can see I am much more tolerant of "off topic" friendly conversations on my seeds/articles and would appreciate your allowing me that leeway, but I will damn well flag the not-so-friendly ones.