Why The Libertarian Party Candidacy Will Go Nowhere
by John Russell
If ever there were a sweet spot for a third party presidential candidate, 2016 would seem to be it. Discontent with the two parties has never been higher we are told. Clinton and Trump are the two most disliked presidential nominees in history, the pollsters say. Into the vacuum created by the failure of the major parties comes the Libertarian Party (and the Green Party) headed by the ticket of Gary Johnson and William Weld. Considering the predisposition for change that seems to be in the air, one would expect Johnson-Weld to be well in the polling mix from the gitgo.
At the moment, when Johnson is included in a poll, he has received anywhere from 3 to 10 percent, usually closer to 7 or so. This is enough to make him a nuisance to the big boys in a few states, but is far from making him a contender, and pretty far from even getting him into the first debate.
Where is the excitement for Johnson, as in, why isn't there any? I think I know why. I have seen Johnson, and Weld, interviewed a few times, and often the first thing Johnson says is "we are conservative on economic issues and liberal on social issues". Johnson may think this gives him wide appeal but in reality it may be limiting his appeal to a narrow percentage of the electorate. People vote moreso on the basis of what they don't like about a candidate than what they do like. Conservatives see Johnson as a pot smoking pro abortion pro gay marriage political gadfly. Liberals see him as anti-worker and anti-government, someone who wants to cut social services by 20%. Both liberals and conservatives can find a wealth of reasons to reject Johnson as an alternative.
Studies have shown that despite what they say to pollsters, most people lean either left or right on the political spectrum, there are precious few people, less than 10%, that are true "independents".
Johnson is giving people too many reasons to ignore him, because whether you are liberal or conservative, there are major parts of Johnson's platform that you will find objectionable.
In the past week I have seen a number of conservative guests on the political shows openly say that Johnson is not an option for them. They have said "I don't like Gary Johnson", and one of the reasons given is that he is a pot user. Those who are part of the populist movement (Trump /Sanders people) will reject Johnson because the Libertarian Party would place no restrictions on free trade whatsoever. The Clinton leaner will reject Johnson because he wants to take a hacksaw to federal government.
Yes, Johnson might hit 10% , but I think that is his ceiling. On election day, after all the last ditch emotional appeals by the Democrats and Republicans for their candidates, I don't think Johnson will reach even that number.
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Can Johnson get enough votes in any single state to effect who wins the state and gets the electoral votes? That is the question.
Good analysis. I'm not sure if Johnson can go any higher or not, but there is still enough time to make a last minute run at it and, who knows, maybe he can make a difference.
It reminds me of the Bull Moose party! Maybe he'll be able to pull it off-- but I doubt it.