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August unemployment report shows weakness. Commander-in-Tweet silent about his job creation skills

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jwc2blue  •  9 years ago  •  29 comments

August unemployment report shows weakness. Commander-in-Tweet silent about his job creation skills

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/1/1694317/-August-unemployment-report-shows-weakness-Commander-in-Tweet-silent-about-his-job-creation-skills

 

Unlike the previous six month, Friday’s release of the government’s estimate of new jobs created in August did not spur Pr*sident Donald Trump to again tout how many jobs he has created in the months he’s been squatting in the White House. That’s actually welcome news.

As economists point out—usually to no avail—a president’s direct impact on job creation is always limited unless they adopt major policies, like the 2009 stimulus package, which inject or curtail federal spending for specific kinds of programs. Since the fiscal year ends in September, there’s no good reason to credit or blame any president for jobs created or shed before then during the first year they are in office.

So maybe he finally gets it. Or maybe he forgot. Or perhaps he just decided not to take credit for the relatively weak showing of 156,000 seasonally adjusted new jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics said were created in August. That was well below the consensus in Bloomberg’s survey of experts earlier this week, which forecast the gain would be 180,000 new jobs. Of course, probably the minute this is posted, he’ll make a liar of me and tweet how great his job creation is.

The private sector generated 165,000 jobs in August, but the public sector lost 9,000. The overall calculation was determined through an analysis of the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments. This latest BLS count makes August the 83rd consecutive month of overall job growth.

Based on more complete information available than when its numbers were first released, the bureau revised its job counts for June and July. The tally for June fell from 231,000 to 210,000, and for July went from 209,000 to 189,000.

The unemployment rate is calculated from another study—the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. The “headline rate,” which is the most commonly reported upon and which the BLS labels U3 —came in at 4.4 percent. That’s up 0.1 point from last month but is still the lowest rate in 16 years. In the past quarter century, the lowest the rate reached was 3.8 percent in April 2000.



 

 


Both full-time and part-time positions are included in the bureau’s surveys. A person who has worked a single hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed. The survey period ends around the 12th of each month, so the August report released this morning actually covers the last half of July and the first half of August, not just August alone.

Wages rose marginally. Compared with last August, the year-over-year gain was 65 cents, a 2.5 percent rise against an annual inflation rate of 1.73 percent. For the average worker, that has meant barely keeping up.

Unemployment rates differ by race and sex . For U3: Adult men:  4.1 percent; Adult women:  4.0 percent; Whites: 3.9 percent; Blacks: 7.7 percent; Asians: 4.0 percent; Hispanics: 5.2 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly).

Besides U3, the bureau tallies unemployment for groups other than those simply looking for a job. One of those categories is labeled  U6 , the most inclusive measure of “labor underutilitization,” which covers both un employment and under employment. Many, but far from all, economists say U6 provides a better look at job health than U3. In August, U6 clocked in at 8.6 percent for the third month in a row. Its pre-recession low was 8 percent in March 2007, but it was lower than that earlier in the 2000s, reaching 6.9 percent in mid-2001. A crucial component of the U6 tally consists of part-time workers who want—but cannot find—full-time positions. More than 5 million Americans who would like full-time work have only been able to find part-time positions. 

Between February 2008 and December 2009, the Great Recession caused a net loss of 8.8 million jobs. Since then, the economy has made a net gain of 12.4 million new jobs.

The civilian workforce rose in August by 206,000 after rising by 361,000 in July and rising by 349,000 in June. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.9 percent, and the employment-population ratio  slipped 0.1 to 60.1 percent.

The bureau has established a "90 percent confidence level" of plus or minus 120,000 jobs. That means the "real" number of new jobs created in August was not 156,000 but rather fell in a range of a gain of 36,000 and of 276,000. The way the BLS puts it: “These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the true over-the-month change lies within this interval.”

The bureau also calculates the employment-population ratio for people age 25 to 54. This age group is the most likely of any to be employed. Their situation is thus viewed as a key indicator of America’s overall economic health. In 1999, this age group reached its highest employment-population ratio—81.8 percent. It hit its lowest point—74.8 percent—in November 2010 during the Great Recession. Since then, it’s been slowly rising. In August it fell 0.3 point to 78.4 percent.

Here are some additional details from the report:


Hours & Wages:



•   Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 4 cents an hour to $22.12 in August.
•   Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls fell in August by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.
•   Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 3 cents an hour in August to $26.39.
•   The manufacturing work week in August fell 0.2 hours to 40.7 hours.

June Job Gains and Losses   for selected categories:

  • Professional services : 40,000
    • Temporary help services: 100
  • Transportation & warehousing : 1,900
  • Financial activities : 10,000
  • Leisure & hospitality : 4,000
  • Information:  -8,000
  • Education and health services : 25,000
    • Health care & social assistance : 16,600
  • Retail trade : 800
  • Construction : 28,000 
  • Manufacturing : 36,000 
  • Mining and Logging : 6,000

Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous 10 years compared with this August’s gain of 156,000.

August 2007 :   -20.000   
August 2008 : -267,000
August 2009 : -213,000
August 2010 :   -36,000   
August 2011 :  110,000    
August 2012 :  177,000
August 2013 :  261,000 
August 2014 :  230,000 
August 2015 :  157,000 
August 2016 :  176,000






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lady in black
Professor Silent
link   lady in black    9 years ago

It's all Obama's fault dontcha know.....MAGA = Morons Are Governing America

 
 
 
321steve - realistically thinkin or Duu
Sophomore Participates
link   321steve - realistically thinkin or Duu     9 years ago

I'll bet there is going to be plenty of work in texas for a while. rebuilding after hurricanes takes manpower and lots of materials. 

trumps saving grace.... a hurricane. 

way lucky for him, a great distraction and a job producing bonis. Maybe he'll order up another....lol

Hopefully next time he'll remember in include the victims of the storm when he makes his next photo op appearance though.

So tacky !!!

And O so trump !

What a shame ya can't buy class. 

 
 
 
Hal A. Lujah
Professor Participates
link   Hal A. Lujah  replied to  321steve - realistically thinkin or Duu   9 years ago

Maybe he'll order up another....lol

 
 
 
Hal A. Lujah
Professor Participates
link   Hal A. Lujah  replied to  Hal A. Lujah   9 years ago

Good grief - apparently fake weather forecasts are now a thing.  The world is chock full of trolls.

 
 
 
Jonathan P
Sophomore Silent
link   Jonathan P    9 years ago

So maybe he finally gets it. Or maybe he forgot. Or perhaps he just decided not to take credit for the relatively weak showing of 156,000 seasonally adjusted new jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics said were created in August.

The statistical (not political) bias in the BLS estimate is well known, for those who look at it on a continuing basis, month after month, year after year. The June and July numbers were adjusted downward, paving the way for a revision in the August number when the September data is released a month from now.

There are many, many legitimate contemptible things that our President is guilty of. The fact is that the economy will improve greatly in the coming years as the result of his tenure, and that cannot be willed away by unrelenting criticism.

Looking at your comments, it is clear that your understanding and knowledge of economics and economic data are superficial at best. Therefore, I can only assume that you used this article in an attempt to continue to bash the President for reasons great and small.

FAIL

 
 
 
magnoliaave
Sophomore Silent
link   magnoliaave    9 years ago

Whatever it takes to get my man to stop tweeting!

 
 

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