Senate Democrats falsely claim GOP tax plan will raise taxes for most working-class families
“On average, middle class families earning less than $86,000 would see a tax increase under the Republican ‘tax reform’ plan.”
— Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), in a tweet, Oct. 27
“The average tax increase on families nationwide earning up to $86,100 would be $794.00”
— Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), in a tweet, Oct. 24
“Under GOP plan, U.S. families making ~$86k see avg tax increase of $794.”
— Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), in a tweet, Oct. 24
A reader asked whether Harris’s tweet was accurate. But when we looked into it, it turns out that many Democrats were tweeting the same talking point — that middle-class families would face an average tax increase under the GOP plan. The three tweets below are just a sampling.
On average, middle class families earning less than $86,000 would see a tax increase under the Republican “tax reform” plan.
— Kamala Harris (@SenKamalaHarris) October 27, 2017
The average tax increase on families nationwide earning up to $86,100 would be $794.00
— Senator Bob Casey (@SenBobCasey) October 24, 2017
It turns out this Twitter blizzard is the result of a bad game of telephone.
The Facts
We traced the talking point to a document put out by the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, essentially the communications arm of Senate Democrats. That document laid out a series of statistics, tailored for each individual state, that purported to show how damaging the evolving Republican tax plan would be for middle-class Americans.
This factoid in turn was sourced to a report by Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee. So we tracked that down.
That report had this line: “If enacted, the Republican tax reform proposal would saddle 8 million households that earn up to $86,100 with an average tax increase of $794 — a substantial expense for working families.”
Note the difference. The original report referred to 8 million households receiving a $794 tax increase. Somehow, when it got communicated down the line, that nuance was lost and it was translated into a talking point referring to all working-class families.
Latoya Veal, spokeswoman for the JEC Democrats, explained how the number was calculated. The staff took an estimate by the Tax Policy Center , based on the GOP’s “Unified Framework” released in September. The staff then focused on the households (technically “tax units” in the TPC document) making under $86,100 — the bottom three quintiles of taxpayers — that would face a tax increase. Weighting the tax increase by the number of people in each quintile, the staff came up with an average tax hike of $794 for the people receiving a tax increase.
But notice the funny thing about this calculation: Only a small percentage (6.5 percent) of the nearly 122 million households in the bottom three quintiles will actually face a tax increase.
Meanwhile, more than 97 million (80 percent) will receive a tax cut. Doing the math the same way the JEC staff did, we come up with an average tax cut of about $450 for those 97 million households.
Indeed, at the far end of the chart, you will see that every quintile on average receives a tax cut — not a tax increase.
In any tax bill, there are going to be winners and losers. The top quintile receives the biggest average tax cut, both in dollars and change in after-tax income — but also has the largest percentage (32.3 percent) of households that will face a tax increase.
“There are different ways to approach the TPC estimates,” Veal said. “Key Republicans have been asked whether they could guarantee that no middle-class family will get a tax increase under their plan. Our calculation shows that some households — 8 million — making under $86,100 will receive an increase based on TPC’s estimates.”
By the time we contacted the DPCC about the error, The Fact Checker’s questions must have circulated.
“Once we realized that the original report could have been clearer, we updated it immediately,” a spokesman said. Now the updated report makes clearer that 8 million households could face a tax increase — though again it fails to acknowledge that most people would have a tax cut.
The inaccurate tweets remain.
The Pinocchio Test
In their haste to condemn the GOP tax plan, Democrats have spread far and wide the false claim that families making less than $86,100 on average will face a hefty tax hike. Actually, it’s the opposite. Most families in that income range would get a tax cut. Any Democrat who spread this claim should delete their tweets and make clear they were in error. [ Update: Harris and Casey deleted their tweets after this column appeared.]
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The article above was published on November 2 by the Washington Post. It is the Post admitting that democrats have relentlessly lied about the tax bill AND the Republicans have done little to correct the lies. Thus we have the American public that dosen't like a tax cut for most Americans.
That's very interesting. Do you have a link to the original WP article? Can't seem to find it.
Here it is:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/11/02/senate-democrats-falsely-claim-gop-tax-plan-will-raise-taxes-for-most-working-class-families/?utm_term=.31242ee4406f
Interesting, however I did notice one redeemed point in there, they corrected it when it was pointed out.
So bad on them for implying something incorrect, but kudos for correcting it when brought to their attention.
And if only we could get Republican lawmakers to truthfully talk about the tax cuts as well. Both sides are not being forthcoming about it.
Oh! You mean the lie that this tax plan is for the middle class!.......that lie?
Just that how can a certain tax plan be for the middle class when most of it benefits the wealthy and corporations? How can a certain tax plan benefit the middle class when the only permanency is for the wealthy and corporations? As I see it, if it was truly for the middle class shouldn't the individual cuts be permanent and the wealthy and corporations rely on the compassion on whatever Congress is in charge in 2027?
Thanks for proving my point!
How about Trump's claim that he and other wealthy people will be paying more under the tax plan? EVERY SINGLE NON-PARTISAN EXPERT that has examined the bills has stated that he is saving millions if not billions from this tax plan.
Because its not for most Americans, and those that are expire soon. And its UNANIMOUS that the debt will explode.
Comedy! Bullshit! Obama had DECREASED the deficit almost every year he was in office and mind you those was Obama budget not just ONE plan. Obama came into office for a 1.2 trillion dollar deficit and left office cutting that in half and now you have Trump with just ONE plan adding 1.4 Trillion dollars to the deficit NOT with a budget, but with a plan!
Comedy! Yeah Obama had total the largest deficit going at about 6.9 trillion total over the course of his 8 years, but you seem to want to forget that he had to reside over this little economic crisis called the Great Recession! The highest plan Obama ever produced was the stimulus which was 787 billion dollars, which added 534 billion dollars to the deficit over 10 years….Trump is adding a 5.5 trillion dollar plan on his budget (Cant wait to see that car wreck!) that will add 1.4 trillion dollars over 10 years! You see the comparison Obama’s ENTIRE BUDGETS over 8 years added 6.9 trillion dollars, this ONE PLAN is going to add 1.4 TRILLION….but somehow it’s a pittance?
Trump is on track to DOUBLE Obama's spending and deficit, even though the country is in no way shape or form like it was when Obama took office.....no, you cant take raw numbers and try to claim a victory, it only make you transparent regarding your biasness
but them's the facts, Jack!
Refute them if you can!
No what you did was compare a Dump truck to an apple cart and claim it's a Ferrari! What you did is try to spin someone's 8 YEARS and compare it to someone PROPOSAL which increases a deficit by itself MORE than someone entire BUDGET PROPOSAL........
Heck, I'm sure you know this means $1.4T ADDITIONAL deficits on top of the ones already projected.
Trying to get these people to understand basic arithmetic is always bound to fail.
You did see what you just said right? This article is from November 2nd, a bill that wasn't even finished as it's still being changed today.
The facts so far are that the current state of the bill is mostly for the wealthy and corporations with 62% of the benefits going to them. The cuts for the corporations are permanent while the cuts for the middle income earners sunsets within 10 years meaning their taxes will actually increase while the corporations will keep their cuts and it will cost tax payers $1.5 trillion in new debt. The average middle income family will save a whopping $66 - $100 a month while those making 7 figures will see as much as a $3000 a month savings from these proposed tax cuts. It's just more flawed trickle down economics theory which has never worked in the last several attempts by Republicans to cut taxes primarily for the wealthy.
This is a terrible bill for everyone but those who are already wealthy or those who win the lottery, so I guess the low and middle income Americans can spend their extra $66 a month on lottery tickets in hopes of joining their ranks. They have the same chances with the lottery of doing financially better as they do with this ridiculous tax cut. Just when we thought the Republican base couldn't get any more gullible, they have you on your knees begging for scraps while giving the store away to the wealthy.
So, perhaps you can explain how our cuts expire and the ones to the top do not? And the cuts some people DO TEMPORARILY will be eclipsed by the rise in healthcare costs loss of programs designed to help low income Americans like Medicaid. And the deficit will be far higher than GOP projections, and that is unanimous among economists. What they are doing has never worked, and they are salivating over future cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
I am not even going to pretend that I understand this new tax thing, I will just wait and see what happens when I file to see what impact it has on me financially.
Ok.....and what happens after 2027?
You Trumpeters kill me.......the last 8 years is was Obama was destroying the economy for my children, Obamacare would make it hard for my children and children's children, they are spending so much money that my grandchildren wont have Social Security....blah, blah, blah.....Now all of a sudden you all could give a damn about how this tax plan will affect your children even when it clearly lays out to you that the lasting effect will be a 1.4 trillion dollar deficit, cutting of social programs and temporary tax cuts which will end with 25-30% of the middle class facing a tax increase!