Dems Now Openly Fretting About Rising Trump Approval, Deteriorating 2018 Prospects
Democrats stand to make gains in the upcoming midterm elections -- but their cockiness about winning sweeping victories has reportedly become more restrained in recent days, thanks to tightening generic ballot polling and improved presidential approval numbers. CNN's newest national survey shows most Americans are pleased with the general state of the country, with Democrats' 2018 advantage down to just three points (as opposed to 16 points in the same series several months ago). Reuters' national data shows Democrats' lead whittled down to one measly point, well within the margin of error. At the beginning of the year, 'Chuck and Nancy's' party held a double digit average lead on the generic ballot, according to Real Clear Politics. That margin has now been chopped in half, to just under six percentage points.
Perhaps more worrisome to liberals is President Trump's increased public opinion standing. Trump is still somewhat unpopular, but his ratings have recovered from disastrous nadirs. It's impossible to tell what the mood of the country will be in five-plus months -- and history, both recent and more broadly speaking -- remains on Democrats' side. But via Ed Morrissey, the Washington Post reports that confidence is (once again) giving way to anxious hand-wringing:
After months of confidence that public discontent with President Trump would lift Democrats back to power in Congress, some party leaders are fretting that their advantages in this year’s midterms are eroding amid a shifting political landscape. Driving their concerns are Trump’s approval rating, which has ticked upward in recent weeks, and high Republican turnout in some recent primaries, suggesting the GOP base remains energized. What’s more, Republicans stand to benefit politically from a thriving economy and are choosing formidable candidates to take on vulnerable Democratic senators...
Democratic worries are mounting in the House, as well, where the party has been more confident of gaining the 23 seats it needs to retake the majority. Democrats are picking strong candidates in dozens of Republican-held suburban districts where Trump has lost significant support — but recent surveys suggest the races may be tightening. Trump’s approval is now at the highest point it has been all year, measured by Gallup in early May at 42 percent, a five-point increase from the start of 2018. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control Congress has shrunk...
Part of Democrats' problem is the sheer volume of noise being generated by disparate anti-Trump factions, much of which is focused on issues like Russia and Stormy Daniels. Congressional candidates may be struggling to focus on bread and butter issues that speak to persuadable voters while their base is fired up over Mueller, porn stars and the prospect of impeachment. The Daily Beast explores this frustration:
Eager to move a message that focuses on things like minimum wage hikes and health care premiums, they have been overtaken by a steady stream of stories of Russian meddling, porn star payoffs, and shady Trump-world figures. Ultimately, many offices and aides have come to the conclusion that they should simply give up on trying to break through on cable news at all. “It’s impossible,” said one Senate aide, “unless you want to talk about Russia.” In conversations with The Daily Beast, numerous other aides echoed this point, sharing stories of fruitless calls and emails to bookers and abrupt cancellations on pre-existing bookings. Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said she was bumped three times from a prime-time MSNBC show due to Trump scandals
The Resistance may be drowning out Democratic Party's messaging, and the endless festival of Trump bashing may be causing uncommitted voters to tune out. That risk is not lost on chief Democratic strategist and American Pope Jimmy Kimmel, who is starting to contemplate the perils of anti-Trump fatigue:
Asked if he had a "barrelful of barbs" aimed at the president ready to be unleashed during the annual "cable news upfront" event — a friendly gathering of the major networks' "executives, media, producers, and advertisers" set to take place later this week — Kimmel said he'd be pulling back on the anti-Trump rhetoric, even though that's become a signature of his late-night monologues. "I don't know. I don't know how much focus there will be on [Trump]," Kimmel said. "I think that people have had an a** full of Donald Trump."
It's not as if he's coming around on Trump, of course; he just seems to be concerned about the utility of endless, over-saturated attacks. And he's not the only one sounding the alarm over the media's counter-productive, overheated obsessiveness:
I'll leave you with this: I asked Mitch McConnell last week about the conservative complaint that Congressional Republicans are wasting their precious opportunity of unified government by shying away from any serious agenda in an election year. Here's Roll Call reporting on House Republicans' busy legislative schedule in the weeks ahead. Parting thought: Will this be featured on the GOP agenda? If so, anti-progress Nancy Pelosi seems conflicted about how to react. I'll leave you with this shift in prognostication from a respected political analyst who's been decidedly bearish on the GOP's midterm chances over the last year-plus: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/05/15/wapo-dems-now-fretting-about-rising-trump-approval-sinking-2018-polling-n2480568
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Trump is the new normal and here to stay. Dems can't cope with it. They thought by now they'd be heading for super majorities and replacing Trump and Pence with President Pelosi (or Hillary somehow).
Americans are now the happiest they've been about the country since 2005.
I for one am decidedly unhappy with what Trump and his science denying planet raping crew are doing to my environment in the name of even more obscene profits for the 1% and the multinational corporate monsters.
Deleted Skirting {SP}
There are over 1300 superfund sites in the U.S. The same companies that did it here do it in other countries that don't even know what a superfund site is. "Hyperbole"? Just reality. Now that Trump, Pruitt and that gang of grifters is in charge, we can expect many more.
There’s no Constitutional authority for a single dollar of federal taxpayer money to be spent on “superfund” sites
Rampant corporate pollution so that the 1% can profit while our children suffer toxins is the American way?
skirting the CoC [ph]
Off topic [ph]
Not the PDSCP. They're only happy when the country has open borders, illegals have more rights than American Citizens, Illegal Aliens Criminals are being released back into the streets of America and producers aren't reaping the rewards from their hard work ethics. They think the government should take care of them. They are of the opinion "From each according to his/her ability and to each according to his/her needs" and they would rather the poor remain poor or get poorer if it means the rich stay rich or get richer.
Off topic [ph]
Is that why suicide and anti depressant use is at an all time high?
The economy has not recovered for everyone. In that regard, they probably don't have much faith or hope.
Used to be a paramedic and during the winter we picked up hundreds of true believers who froze to death.
They will, people in general are charitable and willing to help during a crisis. Religion, outside of cries of "Oh God" matters little when there's a crisis.
Agreed. Have been in many catastrophes and folk tend to pull together when the shit hits the fan.
all the screeching is just cover for things like this...
whats that sound? the sound of leftwing goose being cooked until burnt
Come on Surf. You're better than that. The only thing being cooked is those who may be implicated by the IG. The FBI has pretty consistently been run by Republicans.
perhaps you have never heard the term RINO (Republican in name only)
they will burn first but not the brightest. and unless they all fall on their swords, this will go all the way to the top of the last admin.
stay tuned
Oh please...do you think everyone but you is ignorant? The only 'RINO's' as you call them these days are those who have seen the hand writing on the wall and are leaving the GOP in mass numbers in order to save their own integrity and what respect they have left.
Yes, seems a bunch of newer republicans don't accept moderates. That is as unfortunate as DINO. Its disgusting to put party fringes over what is best for the country. Right now seems that is an epidemic.
oh please... the left has gone so far batschit left they can no longer even see the middle. they will get back to putting our country and our people first or become even more irrelevant than they are now. but first they are going to have to realize that... I reckon it will take 10 yrs to even start to acknowledge that simple truth
as long as one blames other people for their problems? there is no remedy (fixing everyone else is impossible)
when one blames themselves for their problems? the solution is right behind their noses (fixing ourselves is easier)
the left did not lose because of russia, they lost because they do not put our country and people first. / fix that
Cheers
First of all, you need to define what you are calling moderates. Are they the center, or independents?
Second, no matter what you are claiming it was moderates/independents that made the difference in electing Trump. Now you are spitting on them. Conservatives alone could have never elected him. He was not part of the party.
Third, indies are quite sick of both parties. It's meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
I beg to disagree. This indie can't stand far right wing fascism but can tolerate certain liberal policies.
(still keeping my AR-15)
What two independent parties? I am a life long independent, and I can assure you that at present, there is no independent party, since that would be an oxymoron.
Indies are issue oriented, not ideology. So, we pick and chose the issues and where we stand on them. That is why they are not to be confused with moderates, which imply in the middle. I can be conservative on some issues and liberal on others. I would also have to say, that rarely have I met one that was too extreme in either direction.
We would love to form our own parties, but the cronies of each party have made it nearly impossible for us to get an independent party up and running.
Says who? You? What are you afraid of?
Which is my point. The parties have made it impossible for a third party to gain a foothold. They don't get the campaign backing, and in many states, indies can't even get a person on a ballot. This is so the two parties remain in control.
Again, says who? What do you base that on? Your beliefs. That doesn't count.
Frankly, what you think does not interest me in the very least. Ignorance and prejudice are not of my interest at all.
Well said.
And how is that different in the republican party who calls moderates RINOs?
By today's standards, Ronald Reagen would be a RINO.
That's odd, because Red State would disagree with you:
1. Reagan granted amnesty to illegal immigrants . This is toxic for Republicans in this election cycle. Anything short of “send them all home” is fodder for the party purists. Regardless of ideology, the concept of sending, at a minimum, 12 million people back to country X is impractical and probably not even possible
As one who believes in pragmatic politics, what Reagan did was right. But where he failed, and where Presidents since have as well, is securing the border. Without a secure border, it’s impossible to prevent illegal immigration.
2. Ronald Reagan raised taxes . True, he also authored one of the largest tax decreases in history, but these days, if you don’t sign Grover Norquist’s no-taxes pledge , you aren’t a real conservative. God forbid we tax fatty food or sodium, things that result in health problems later in life that we all end up paying for through Medicare. That’s a sin in today’s conservative orthodoxy.
3. Ronald Reagan spent us into a deficit . Because of the tax cuts he enacted, coupled with the massive increase in defense spending, our national debt rose from roughly $700 billion to $3 trillion during Reagan’s time in office. We shifted from being the largest creditor in the world to the largest debtor. We also dramatically increased our borrowing from foreign nations , which continues today.
4. Ronald Reagan helped facilitate the Savings and Loan crisis . Not entirely dissimilar from the financial crisis in fall 2008 , the savings and loan crisis ended up being costing $125 billion in a taxpayer-funded bailout. Although the bailout itself didn’t take place when he was in office, he bears some responsibility, as the crisis happened during his time and his policies of deregulation contributed to it.
5. Ronald Reagan compromised . Yes, he is the origin of much of modern conservative dogma, from supply-side economics to the culture war (his greatest failure, in my opinion). But as with any good President, Reagan knew the value of compromise. Partly out of necessity, given that he had to work with a Democratic house for the entirety of his Presidency, but partly because he knew that, despite the need to have a political base, that any base of any party or ideology is not representative of a majority of Americans.
Actually, he later admitted it was a huge mistake on his part to grant amnesty. And, it wasn't a Presidential failure to secure the border, it was and is a CONGRESSIONAL failure. Part of Reagan's deal for granting Amnesty to the illegals was Congress passing laws and funding to secure the border; and it never happened.
Nope, again Congress failed to meet a promise they made during the negotiations for the Reagan tax cuts, which was to cut spending while granting the tax cuts, which ended up being similar to Grover Cleveland's tax rates with a top marginal rate of 25%. I just can't remember if it was $1 per $2 of tax cuts or $2 for every $1 in tax cuts that Tip O'Neill promised to cut.
Tom,
That is from Red State, not my words. You seem to miss the my bigger point. That both parties have moved from the center to the extreme. Heartland disagreed that Reagan would be now considered a RINO, and yet here it is, in Red State, saying I am right and the fact that you are nit picking their points instead of getting the bigger message is part of the problem.
Plus IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE FIRST AND LAST TIME AMNESTY WOULD BE GRANTED!
Vic,
Again, you are missing my point. Both parties have moved away from the center and have become extreme. The result is that they are losing members to the unaffiliated. I am unsure why no one can admit that this is true. I mean I specifically picked Red State, so that no one could say that my information was biased.
I doubt that Red State would be wrong about this. It is a conservative publication.
I'm not missing it, I'm disagreeing. One party has embraced a radical ideology, the other is reacting to it
William F Buckley Jr would be so proud of you!
that is correct.
they say middle american old school liberal values are extreme? that is why we win.
seen this?
cheers
Winning is never easy. As insane as progressive policies are, they receive votes not based on their advocacy for things like high taxes, bloated government programs and transgenders in the ladies room, but from identity politics and that "thank you" vote from those who should'nt be voting at all out in CA. Once they get elected, we all have their insane policies forced upon us.
something tells me that from now on they are not going to have much luck running on higher taxes, open borders, less jobs, schit trade deals, and hate trump.
will be fun to watch
not in my state, I got out of the military in california and then left that state so fast it even made my head spin...
cheers
Let us hope we defeat them in the House, they need a gain of 23 seats and I'm thinking we got a chance of a super majority in the Senate. Wouldn't that be great? The things that could be acomplished
Have a good one, my friend
interestingly enough....
alynsky said something like... pick a target, move it, freeze it in place and then normalize it. but im fairly sure alynsky did not mean to target and try to move every facet of a culture at once and pretend that is normal...
they pushed way to hard and now are exposed.
the progressive brand is done, they just have not gotten the memo yet.
btw trump told sessions to look into charging that mayor who gave all those illegals a heads up
Cheers
Actually, if you were truly paying attention, you would realize that the parties have moved to the extremes because the actual issues are not what win elections. It is usually a case of how much money the incumbent brings to the state or district that decides who wins the election. I can prove it, based on John Murtha's many victories. He threw fellow Marines under the bus by declaring them murderers before an actual trial then they were declared innocent by said trial, then he went on to call his entire district "Rednecks" and in both cases they voted him back into office. It was that thinking that allowed Arlen Specter to switch to being a Democrat to have a "better chance of getting re-elected" and actually cost him the election.
Now, if you are also honest about the Red State points, they are taking their view of the current Conservative viewpoint and ignoring how and why those actions were taken. They were not taken by a person whom was not a True Conservative, but by a Conservative that made agreements with the opposition to make sure what he REALLY wanted was passed. Like any good negotiator, you go into a debate about policy with things you can live to throw away and not the expectation that you are going to get everything you want. But, you do not throw away the things that you really want or what are really expected by your supporters for you to keep. Reagan never did throw away those things that were his basic principles, like tax cuts. Oh, he raised taxes, but not to the levels that would harm the economy as they were before he took office. He agreed to amnesty, because promises were made to him that border security would be a high priority of Congress. Remember the reason Bush 41 lost to Clinton: "No new taxes!" and then raising taxes. Reagan never made the mistake of making promises that he didn't intend to keep.
By the way, did you notice that your link was to a blog post on Red State's site, not to an actual Red State employee? That makes it a straight opinion piece by an anonymous member of the public, not an actual stance by the Red State's staff and publisher.
I still think Trump is a buffoon but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s re-elected. Trump ran a campaign calling the media fake and, once Trump won, the media joined the Trump resistance as the propaganda arm of the DNC and basically proved him right. The media bangs an anti-Trump drum all day long every day yet accomplishes nothing. It’s like living next to an airport where the noise is so constant that you tune it out.
And the alternative to Trump is a party filled with loons who spread sanctuary cities, put illegal aliens first, and actually promote widespread gender confusion. If you disagree with them on anything, you’re a “phobe” or an ”ist”. To me, they’re absolutely insufferable so I would never support a Democrat. Many people voted for Trump as a one finger salute to the democrats and, although I don’t see myself voting for Trump, I understand why they did.