Trump Versus the Hog-Maker
Harley-Davidson, the famed manufacturer of “hogs” — big motorcycles — made headlines this week when it announced that it would be moving some of its production out of the U.S. in the face of the growing tariff war between America and the European Union.
And Donald Trump made more headlines when he lashed out at a company “I’ve been very good to,” accusing Harley of having “surrendered” to Europe. So he threatened it with punishment: “They will be taxed like never before.”
Now, in general I’m suspicious of news analyses, especially but not only in economics, that rely a lot on a supposedly revealing anecdote (such as, for example, analyses based on conversations with Trump supporters in diners). And the truth is that while Harley-Davidson may be something of an icon, it isn’t a big player in the U.S. economy. At the end of last year its motorcycle segment employed around 5,000 workers; that’s not much in an economy where around 250,000 people are hired every working day.
Nonetheless, I think the Harley story is one of those anecdotes that tells us a lot. It’s an early example of the incentives created by the looming Trumpian trade war, which will hurt many more American companies and workers than Trump or the people around him seem to realize. It’s an indication of the hysterical reactions we can expect from the Trump crew as the downsides of their policies start to become apparent — hysteria that other countries will surely see as evidence of Trump’s fundamental weakness.
And what Trump’s alleged experts have to say about the controversy offers fresh confirmation that nobody in the administration has the slightest idea what he or she is doing.
About that trade war: So far, we’re seeing only initial skirmishes in something that may well become much bigger . Nonetheless, what’s already happened isn’t trivial. The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing their domestic prices to shoot up; our trading partners, especially the European Union, have announced plans to retaliate with tariffs on selected U.S. products.
And Harley is one of the companies feeling an immediate squeeze: It’s paying more for its raw materials even as it faces the prospect of tariffs on the cycles it exports. Given that squeeze, it’s perfectly natural for the company to move some of its production overseas, to locations where steel is still cheap and sales to Europe won’t face tariffs.
So Harley’s move is exactly what you’d expect to see given Trump policies and the foreign response.
But while it’s what you’d expect to see, and what I’d expect to see, it’s apparently not what Trump expected to see. His view seems to be that since he schmoozed with the company’s executives and gave its stockholders a big tax cut, Harley owes him personal fealty and shouldn’t respond to the incentives his policies have created. And he also appears to believe that he has the right to deal out personal punishment to companies that displease him. Rule of law? What’s that?
Now, I suppose it’s possible that Trump will, in fact, manage to bully Harley-Davidson into backing down on moving some production from the U.S. At the moment, however, there’s no sign of that.
And anyway, we’re talking about a few hundred jobs here out of around 10 million currently supported by exports, but put at risk by Trump policies. So if we’re talking about a serious trade war, we’re talking about thousands of Harley-Davidson-scale job losses. Even Trump can’t rage-tweet enough to make a significant dent in troubles of that dimension.
So what do Trump’s economists have to say about all of this? One answer is, what economists? There are hardly any left in the administration. But for what it’s worth, Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, isn’t echoing Trump’s nonsense: He’s uttering completely different nonsense. Instead of condemning Harley’s move, he declares that it’s irrelevant given the “ massive amount of activity coming home ” thanks to the corporate tax cut.
That would be nice if it were true. But we aren’t actually seeing lots of “activity coming home”; we’re seeing accounting maneuvers that transfer corporate equity from overseas subsidiaries back to the home corporation but in general produce “ no real economic activity .”
So the Harley incident reveals the pervasive cluelessness behind the administration’s signature economic policy. But it also reveals something else: the deep weakness at Trump’s core.
Think about it. Imagine that you’re Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, who has already been telling leaders of multinational corporations that he plans to “punch back” against Trump’s tariffs. How do you feel seeing Trump squealing over a few hundred jobs possibly lost in the face of European retaliation? Surely the spectacle inclines you to take a hard line: If such a small pinprick upsets Trump so much, the odds are pretty good that he’ll blink in the face of real confrontation.
So the Harley story, while quantitatively small, may tell us a lot about the shape of things to come. And none of what it tells us is good.
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Do you know the tariffs that China levies against US made products? These tariffs are used as leverage to force US companies to open factories in China, "partner" with Chinese businesses, and hand over R&D and patents.
Let's look at a recent CNN article...
screwing over US automakers during Obama's presidency.
Has the US ever really had "fair" trade with China?
How many cars sold in America are manufactured in China?
I have no idea.
I do know that according to CNN....
None. Nor are any Chinese marques built in America.
This is why tarrifs are so hard to balance. China can truthfully claim that automobile trade is completely unbalanced in America's favor.
For many products, American manufacturing simply isn't competitive.
And then there are cases, like solar panels, where the Chinese industry was subsidized to the point that the American industry has almost vanished.
It ain't simple!
As I have mentioned in a couple other discussions. This is currently in the works.
I will restate in other words here.
Ford stopped domestic production of ALL Ford Focus models some months ago. In about 16 more months production of the STANDARD models will begin in China. If we want them, we will need to import them.
The Sport models, RS and ST, will come from Germany.
Similar story about Buick production shifting to China.
Not exactly "shifting". Buick would have disappeared years ago, but for the fact that the Chinese appreciate the marque. Far more Buicks are sold in China than in the US.
So it's easy to argue that China "saved" Buick from Oldsmobile's fate.
I drive a Buick. Built in Korea.
I take it back!
The Buick Envision is built in China. A few tens of thousands per year, I'd guess.
It's a nice car... now. When it was first introduced, it was under-equipped for its price point. It recently received a better spec... and a price cut.
Let me tell you this about Daewoo. If you have any stock associated with it, get it out. Not a good organization.
Nevertheless, main production has been in Michigan. All of it is "moving", "switching" to China.
There you go.
The remaining Buick is moving there too.
Yes.
Good article below...
I Googled "Buick Enclave to China". No hits.
The Enclave is on the same platform as several other GM products, so moving it wouldn't make much sense.
The fact is that today, Buick is oriented towards the Chinese market. My (terrific) Encore was designed for the Chinese, and only sent to America as an after-thought. Where it became a (well-deserved) hit, pretty much creating the subcompact crossover market.
I guess Buick is a pretty good example of international trade....
China has, roughly, one billion more people than the US. Their economy will be more powerful. Inescapably.
So our quest must be to maintain a proportional role.
Currently the Envision is made there.
I wouldn't bet on most model production remaining here. China is the biggest consumer of Buick cars.
Yes, good article.
One thing that they forgot to mention is the new $1.1 billion dollar Volvo (owned by Greelly/Chinese) plant in SC. It will employ 4,000 at full capacity.
Another tidbit is the 25% tariff on all light trucks, SUV's and vans from Europe. This is done to protect GM/Ford/Ram from the competition of Fiat, VW and MBZ...
GM will assemble its products wherever it is most reasonable to... I hope. To do otherwise would be suicidal.
My Encore is an interesting example. It was designed for the Chinese market, with production in Korea. It was sent to America as a "well... why not?" GM didn't invest much, so if they only sold a few, they were covered.
They completely screwed up the marketing. Since Buick is an old-folks marque, GM is always trying to tap into the youth market. So they attempted to sell the Encore to newlyweds.
Ummm... No.
The Encore is quiet and comfortable... but it's a stone . Zero to sixty in... one of these days. Once upon a time, I wanted "fast". As I have aged, ease of entry / exit has become more and more important. The Encore is the best! In other words, it's perfect for empty-nesters. Not for newlyweds. Oh well...
So we have a badly marketed car... designed for China... built in Korea... and a success in America.
Why not?
Watch out, Ford and VW are in talks for commercial van and light truck joint ventures. I can see some skirting of the rules somewhere there.
Yeah, why not, as long as it lasts?
To help fill the VW picture, VW = VW, Porsche, Audi, Lambo, Bugatti, Ducati and a few others, while employing 3 times as many people as Ford.
Sets the mind wondering.
Good point. We still think of the "Big Three". On the international scene... not so big.
OTOH, the Big Three totally squandered their dominant position fifty years ago.
When the Japanese went from "little junky things, but really, really cheap!" to "actually a pretty good car, and still so inexpensive!" the handwriting was on the wall. American manufacturers continued to churn out mediocre products, counting on "badge engineering" to draw large numbers of customers.
The CEOs continued to draw enormous remuneration, while their companies' positions steadily eroded. Standard capitalism...
Not so long ago, people in China were in dire poverty. Their leaders signed treaties and imported the world's companies and technology to benefit the one billion people of China domestically and on the world market.
I have errands. Will check in later.
I remember, maybe ten years ago, when China's GDP passed France's. That was a country of over a billion people overtaking one of sixty million. Gosh!
Unless the Chinese government does stupid stuff like, say, start unnecessary trade wars... their population ensures that they eventually become the world's leading economy.
To date, I would say that the Chinese government has played the long game very well.
I drive a Japanese truck built in California with Chinese parts and named for a town in Washington. Go figure.
I love the fact the left thinks Harley's decision was made spur of the moment. They haven't had time to negotiate tax incentives with any countries, much the less choose a spot for a new plant, plan hiring and training, or anything else since Trump announced his sanctions. These moves take years worth of planning. Harley made this decision long before the tarriffs were announced. They are just a convenient excuse for the company to try and protect it's image.
I love the fact that the right thinks of nothing but what the left thinks.
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Really. Please explain how businesses work when making a decision to move plants/factories over seas. What about my statement isn't factual.
Harley Davidson is using the tarriffs as an excuse to protect their public image. The planning and decision to move was made a long time ago. But any excuse to bash Trump is a good one it seems.
Maybe you want to explain why Harley Davidson opened a plants over seas while Clinton, Bush, and Obama were in charge?
Funny how the other presidents aren't to blame for Harley's past moves.
So the President gave Harley the opportunity to make a necessary move while putting the blame on him.
OK. I understand.
That's how they justify their talking points; they tell themselves and others what the left thinks even though they haven't a clue what the left thinks, but, it gives them justification for their hatred.
They have nothing positive to talk about. Their program is to eliminate... everything.
That's hardly a great subject for everyday conversation, so they spend their time talking about "the left". Singular. As if there's a monolithic agenda/organization.
It's funny, in a way. They aren't stupid, but they allow themselves to be directed like puppets, with no brains at all. Parrots for Fox News. They allow this. They desire this. Very strange....
Response deleted
That's just silly. Totally illogical.
In this particular case, I was reacting to a (deleted) expounding on what "the left thinks".
Let me persist: It is stupid to generalize in that way... and even stupider for a (deleted ) to make fantastical generalizations about the left.
Clear?
Interesting that the article does not mention that Harley sold out before Trump's tariff war was even a thing... here is an interesting read from May of 2017..
HD is going to go where there business is. The tariffs, IMO, pushed this business off shore. I don't think that wages and benefits will be lower in Europe. So it's the additional cost of $2200 per bike that did it. Europe is a growing market for them where the US is a declining market.
As for having plants in other countries, India is a huge market for bikes and there are numerous builders there. The plant in Thailand may not have come about if we hadn't pulled out of TPP, where the duties on bikes would have been greatly reduced.
BTW, Indian motorcycles will be building a plant in India...
Tesla is actually the only truly made in the USA motor product .. yet that will be changing when they open a plant in China..
But none of that has to do with the point I was attempting to make … for years Harley has been purchasing parts from other countries as well as manufacturing in other countries - this is not some new thing that suddenly popped up due to a 'tariff war' … It is the " un" global world in which we now live (I neither condemn nor condone, it is what it is!) yet it is not 'Trump' and his vast (so called) knowledge or lack there of causing some sudden exodus of Harley - Davidson...
I boycotted Harley several years ago .. sold my scoot … thinking if I ride again I will shop around .. Polaris makes a sweet ride. I do my best to purchase American made products .. sometimes the search is exhausting but I find what I want .. and sometimes I fail!
The news here is that Harley will move part of their production somewhere safe from unexpected tarrifs. Businesses need to be able to plan ahead. Putting a plant somewhere in the European Economic Area will do that.
This is what happens when you (unnecessarily) rock the boat.
The duties are ridiculous, but certainly have been effective in making US manufacturers relocate to their countries and employ their citizens.
I wonder just what Thailand was gaining for lowering their 60% tariff via the TPP.
Polaris which is the parent of Indian Motorcycles is building a plant in India.
If we hadn't pulled out of TPP perhaps the tariffs wouldn't exist for motorcycles.
Another thing to think of is and the number of foreign company that have plants in the U.S. In 2014 foreign corporations employed over 5 million Americans. I'm sure that since that time that many more are employed by foreign corporations.
Do I think that China plays fair, no I don't. But IMO there are ways to fight it without a trade war which in the end will hurt Americans. As I've stated many times, NO ONE WINS A TRADE WAR, the best you can hope for is the injuries are not fatal.
Additionally the U.S. has some pretty steep tariffs as well. It isn't all one way.
I am embarrassed to admit that the only excessive tariff that I am aware of that is imposed by the US is on sugar. This has caused some candy companies to relocate to Canada and Mexico where they have access to much cheaper sugar and no tariffs due to NAFTA.
As far as foreign companies operating in the US, some US companies are now owned by foreigners. Smithfield, the largest pork producer, is now owned by Chinese businessmen. I wonder how far the Chinese leader will tax his own businessmen who own businesses in the US?
Maybe no one wins a trade war, but isn't there room for improvement on existing trade deals or do you believe that the US workers were treated fairly by ALL of the government reps who negotiated and voted for them?
That boat was already rocking unsteadily, and the tariffs, or the threat of them, are meant to calm the waters and level the boat.
Here is a link to the tariffs used by the US to protect some of our industries.
I believe that you can go to the HTS (harmonized tariff schedule) of U.S. customs and find the duty/tariff on items imported to the U.S.
There was one that was just overturned a 300% duty on a specific plane made by Bombardier in Canada that was going to be imported to the U.S.
There is always room for improvement in the various trade deals. In a global economy American workers and workers from other countries will always be hurt. That is the nature of globalization. The alternative is to become a isolationist country which will drive the cost of products through the roof.
Oh?
I keep hearing how well the economy is running. Which is it?
Of course there's always room for improvement. But trade is two-way. So it's always looking for improvements for both parties. That's possible, because it's not a zero-sum game. Both sides can and should win.
Yeah, I know .. I have been thinking more along the lines of a Victory .. manufacturing of the bike is winding down, but is (at this time) made in the USA.
I do my research Kavika .. as I said I prefer to buy 'Made in the USA' products - they are difficult to find these days, yet I always search them out before making a purchase ..
As Split Personality stated earlier "capitalism in action" - I tried to buy a stereo made in the USA .. all I could find was one 'assembled in Mexico using parts from the USA' go figure
Ooops kind of wandered off topic again...
Not at all. The topic is international trade. You're spot on.
Not in my opinion, the article is about international trade so I think your right on target.
Are you saying that Harley had a contract requiring them to produce only in America? Who was the other party in this contract?
Or... are you saying that all American companies have an obligation to have all their manufacturing in America? Like Apple, for example?
What, exactly, do you mean by "sold out"?
I do not purchase Apple products ..
What I am saying is I choose the products I purchase carefully .. and buy American (or Made in Montana) whenever possible. I also pay attention to business models of the companies I purchase from, as well as employee treatment by said companies - these are things that are important to me..
I was loyal to Harley - Davidson until I wasn't .. talked to my buddy that is a partner in the local Harley shop - sales have been dropping off for sometime … but he thinks now may possibly hit rock bottom - remains to be seen... I wish Harley nothing but success in selling a piece of Americana .. NO longer made in America!
OK... sounds reasonable.
I would look for the bikes made overseas to be sold overseas.
And while that article decried the potential layoffs off 100 HD employees in Pennsylvania, 7 months later in January of 2018,
HD decided to close their Kansas City operations and move them to York PA
transferring or creating 450 jobs in York.
Flash forward to June 2018 and now there's going to be stiff tariffs on the raw material for American made bikes; steel and aluminum.
Like Mercedes, Toyota, Hyundai, KIA and others, HD will build plants where the tariffs are lower and eliminate most of the shipping fees across the Atlantic and Pacific.
That's capitalism in action.
I hear you Split Personality … yet I am tired of the outcry over Harley and the increase of roughly 2200 per bike, when they already have gone overseas to manufacture … Tis just me I am sure, but I am far more concerned about the independent farmers and ranchers then I am a corporation and their tale of whoa regarding the bottom line and who is to blame for the shareholders not making enough money for a new yacht.
You understand, I hope, that many companies have multiple production sites. Harley already has a site in Thailand (I think), but now they will create one in Europe.
Right now they import partially assembled units and finish them in Bankok, but they are working towards a complete assembly process.
which should be complete in Rayong by the end of this year.
.
Harley-Davidson also has a motorcycle assembly plant in India, where it builds the company’s popular Street-model bikes for foreign markets.
they are known as Powersport Motor Co in Thailand. and have a HQ and 2 dealerships.
Many of the engineers are going to Thailand and Union employees suspect some of the equipment will go to Thailand instead of York, PA.
IMO, the Chinese and a few other countries are playing the ''long game''...Their business plans go out decades, where ours go out five years...
China is willing to lose some of the battles and make concessions if in the long game they reach their goal. US Presidents come and go as do all US politicians and with that is a constant change of attitude and plans. Rarely so with the Chinese and also the Japanese.
I agree, and I think this idea is essential.
Very few CEOs in this country have much honor or moral values;
The majority circle a date on the calendar in the not distant future where they think they can drive a stock price to a new high in coordination with their contractual obligations,
golden parachutes and obligations to the stockholders and public in order to maximize their personal
profit without a hint of concern for the same customers, stock holders or employees.
It is the down side of this version of capitalism.
then they run for public office and ask us to look away............focus on their altruism./s
Of course not. They aren't paid to be honorable. They are paid to maximize shareholder dividends... regardless of any conflict with honor.
It always surprises me when someone is surprised by dishonesty in business. Dishonesty is not intrinsic to capitalism, but neither is honesty. Capitalism is amoral. It has no moral values at all. "Maximize shareholder dividends by whatever means necessary."
If the law is strict... and if the law is strictly enforced... and if the penalties for breaking the law are significantly greater than the profits to be made while following the law... then a company will abide by the law. Or rather, will stick close to the law...
But if the monetary advantages of breaking the law are greater than those of obeying the law... the CEO's duty is to break the law.
This is the nature of the beast!