It's Brexit crunch time for Britain. Can Theresa May survive it?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
LONDON — When British Prime Minister Theresa May sits down for dinner with 27 other European leaders on Wednesday, she will need a strong stomach as Brexit turmoil yet again threatens to topple her government.
It will be her last major summit before the U.K. leaves the European Union in less than six months, but unless squabbling British lawmakers unite behind her post-Brexit plan — a consensus that appears unlikely — it could also be May's last summit as prime minister.
“We are at that stage in the process where it comes harder and harder to paper over the cracks,” said Tim Haughton, associate professor in European politics at the University of Birmingham. “We are now getting close to the endgame and the point at which decisions have to be made.”
Brexit negotiations have often been compared to playing a multi-level game of chess. May’s plans need to please not only the lawmakers in her own fragile governing coalition but also the 27 other countries in the E.U. It is a balancing act that even the most skilled negotiators would find challenging.
The E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said last week that a deal "is within reach," with 80 to 85 percent of it already negotiated and the most difficult discussions left to the end. Negotiations this weekend seemed to have made little progress, with both Barnier and the British government tweeting Sunday evening that there remained a number of unresolved issues.
At the heart of the current disagreement is the state of the post-Brexit border between Ireland — an E.U. member — and Northern Ireland, one of the four nations that make up the U.K. The border has been the focus of deadly violence in the past, and, after March 29, the Brexit deadline, it will be the only land border between the E.U. and Britain.
Both sides agree there should be no customs checks or other infrastructure on the border, but there is no agreement on how and where those checks should take place.
Under May's proposals, in the event Britain and the E.U. don’t come to a trade deal, the whole of the United Kingdom would be in a customs partnership with the E.U. after a transition period ends in December 2020.
Some of May's ministers have urged her to put a time limit on that partnership, something the E.U. opposes.
Time is running out to seal some kind of deal in Britain's divorce from Europe, its biggest trade and foreign policy shift in more than 40 years. If Britain is to reach a settlement by March 29, May and the Europeans must find solutions in the coming weeks so that national parliaments across the continent have enough time to ratify the agreement.
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So Brexit still remains a great unknown for both the Brits and Teresa May. Make your predictions.
It's Brexit crunch time for Britain. Can Theresa May survive it?
Britain as it is may not survive it.