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The tax law is 1 year old -- here are the winners and losers

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  ender  •  8 years ago  •  55 comments

The tax law is 1 year old -- here are the winners and losers

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



President Donald Trump made some bold promises last year when he signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act   into law on Dec. 22, 2017 . Among the boldest -- that middle-class workers would see a pay increase of $4,000 to $9,000 and that the richest Americans wouldn't gain "at all" under the plan.


By those measures, the tax reform package has fallen short, some experts say. Wage growth remains modest, and most middle-class taxpayers have seen only a middling financial boost from lower tax rates, which declined by about 1 percent to 4 percent. 


Meanwhile, the biggest benefits went to the rich and "increased the inequality of income,"   wrote   William G. Gale, the co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, this week in an article for the Brookings Institution. He also said the tax cuts are unlikely to boost long-term growth and could mire the economy in debt.

As the tax law turns one, here's a look at the biggest winners and losers from the landmark measure.

Winner: Corporations


Thanks to a major cut in their tax rate, corporations are now taxed at a 21 percent rate instead of 35 percent. The reduction was framed as a way to allow companies to keep more profits, which they would then spend on hiking wages -- leading to that promised $4,000 to $9,000 raise. 

But corporations are diverting   much of those proceeds to investors , not workers. Only 6 percent of tax cut-related savings have gone to workers, according to Just Capital, a nonprofit advocacy group. By contrast, about 56 percent of those savings have been funneled to investors in the form of buybacks and dividends. Through mid-December, U.S. companies  spent  a record $1 trillion this year on buying back their own stock, which props up their value.

Winner: The rich


The rich are getting richer thanks to the tax bill -- and even faster than before. 

The top 20 percent of earners around the country have seen a nearly 3 percent gain in after-tax income since the tax cuts were passed a year ago, according to the Tax Policy Center. That means a typical household in that group, which has annual income of roughly $348,000, will enjoy a boost of about $10,000.

Meanwhile, income for the lowest 20 percent of earners rose only 0.4 percent after the tax bill -- that amounts to a benefit of $56. After-tax income for middle-class Americans -- those in the middle 60 percent -- increased between 1.2 and 1.9 percent this year.




Winner: Some small businesses and freelancers




Some small businesses and freelancers are benefiting from the tax law's more favorable treatment of "pass-through" entities, such as sole proprietorships and partnerships. The act let them deduct 20 percent of their earnings from taxable income. That means a freelancer earning $100,000 will only pay taxes on $80,000 of that income, effectively allowing them to enjoy $20,000 in income tax-free. 

There are some limitations. Taxpayers who earn more than $157,500 for single filers or $315,000 for joint filers may not qualify for the pass-through deduction, for example. 

Losers: Taxpayers in high-tax states


In some cases, taxpayers will end up owing more next April, especially those who live in high-tax states. That's because the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) caps the state and local tax (SALT) deduction at $10,000. 

Residents of New York State, where income and property taxes tend to be high, will pay an additional $14.3 billion in taxes in 2018, New York State attorney general Barbara D. Underwood   said   earlier this year. 

The IRS warned this week that some taxpayers who expected   refunds may actually end up owing   due to the new tax law. That includes people who live in high-tax states. 

Losers: Future taxpayers


Although the tax cuts put more money in people's pockets, one day they will have to be paid for -- and the tab is mammoth. The law is project to increase the U.S. deficit by $1.9 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 

"It is unclear how TCJA will eventually be financed, but in the most likely scenarios, most households will end up  worse off  than had the TCJA never passed," Gale wrote. "In short, TCJA likely made the current generation of high-income households better off at the expense of lower-income households and future generations."

Aimee Picchi

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Ender
Professor Expert
1  seeder  Ender    8 years ago

Just as expected. The winners in the tax scheme are the wealthy and corporations.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
1.1  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Ender @1    8 years ago

"The top 20 percent of earners around the country have seen a nearly 3 percent gain in after-tax income since the tax cuts were passed a year ago, according to the Tax Policy Center. That means a typical household in that group, which has annual income of roughly $348,000, will enjoy a boost of about $10,000.

Meanwhile, income for the lowest 20 percent of earners rose only 0.4 percent after the tax bill -- that amounts to a benefit of $56. After-tax income for middle-class Americans -- those in the middle 60 percent -- increased between 1.2 and 1.9 percent this year."

Deficit in 2017 before tax cut? $665 billion (that was already up from the $585 billion Obama had it at when he left office).

Deficit after the tax cut, just 1 year in: $833 billion (projected 2019 deficit with tax cut @ $984 billion).

So the low income Americans get 0.4% benefit from the tax cut, middle income Americans get 1.2% to 1.9% benefit from the tax cut while the wealthiest Americans enjoy a 3% benefit along with corporations taking the largest benefit with 60% of the total tax cut benefit going to them supposedly to give back to their workers to increase wages, which just ins't happening as they claimed. The companies bought back a trillion dollars of their own stock instead.

So the American tax payer get's to owe an extra $300 billion in debt all for a tiny carrot that amounted to between $36 a month to $120 a month in tax savings so that the wealthiest Americans could get an extra $1000 a month and corporations would win the biggest with an already low average of 18% tax base which is what most corporations paid before the tax cut, down to next to nothing like many of the biggest corporations who have an army of tax attorneys sailing them through every loophole to a net of zero taxes paid into our military, roads and infrastructure that they all use to get rich. I often hear how corporations are people, well these people get all the benefits of living here but don't pay a dime into the system. Is that really conservative Republicans idea of "fair"?

" There are 27 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500, including telecom firm  Level 3 Communications (LVLT) , airline  United Continental (UAL)  and automaker  General Motors (GM) , that reported paying no income tax expense in 2015 despite reporting pre-tax profits, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence."

Notice those 27 companies paying zero taxes was in March of 2016, a year and a half before Trumps tax cuts.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
1.1.1  seeder  Ender  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @1.1    8 years ago

Corporate welfare.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
1.1.2  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @1.1    8 years ago

Good for them they have been getting the shaft for far too long and are still stuck paying a higher rate than those earning less. At least it’s a step in the right direction. 

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
PhD Silent
1.1.3  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Dean Moriarty @1.1.2    8 years ago

good for them???

WTH

what r u talking about ?

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
1.1.4  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Dean Moriarty @1.1.2    8 years ago
Good for them they have been getting the shaft for far too long and are still stuck paying a higher rate than those earning less.

"Factor In Deductions And Other Expenditures, And The U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Isn’t So High. Companies may start at a high corporate tax rate in the U.S., but once they go through all the deductions and credits, they don’t end up paying an unusually high amount compared to companies in other nations."

The average corporate tax rate before Trumps tax cut was 18.6%.

So good for those corporations paying on average 18.6% for figuring out how to pay even less into the system? A system that was built to protect this nation, pay for veterans injured protecting us, to pay for the police, fire, utilities, roads and mass transportation needed for those corporations workers to get to their offices and/or deliver their goods and services in order to make a profit.

I get it, some people just hate to pay for ANYTHING anyone else decided was best for all. A new park your kids might never play at, someone else's kids in broken homes who can't be sure their be food on the table each night, and they might even be minorities who don't look like you or believe like you. I know it's hard for hard hearts to have empathy for those they've been taught to hate, so I'm sure feeling like your tax dollars are being spent on those folk you hate, that must really chap your hides. And there are those who take advantage of our entitlements, about 3% of welfare and food stamp recipients were found to be fraudulent, but that means there's 97% that really do need our help, and without it they wouldn't just "pull themselves up by their bootstraps", they more often become homeless, have worsening mental disorders, are more likely to commit suicide or die from drug overdoses.

So the fact that corporations can just snub their noses to the people, the workers, the consumers and the families that are what made that corporation great. Without the American people, these corporations wouldn't have the ability to make the profits they do, and to not give back isn't something to be cheered, it's something to be shamed and exposed.

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3  bbl-1    8 years ago

Tax winners and losers?  What ever, the debt and deficits are increasing.

Veteran suicides are at a high level.  Poverty is increasing.  Much of the nation's infrastructure is antiquated and needs renewal.  And the wealth continues to concentrate. 

I guess it is good that some who are doing well are doing better.  So, when will the 'trickledown' kick in?

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
3.1  seeder  Ender  replied to  bbl-1 @3    8 years ago
So, when will the 'trickledown' kick in?

When hell freezes over.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.1  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Ender @3.1    8 years ago

Wages Rise at Fastest Rate in Nearly a Decade as Hiring Jumps

Unemployment rate held at a 49-year low in October; wages increased 3.1%

 
 
 
Studiusbagus
Sophomore Silent
3.1.2  Studiusbagus  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.1    8 years ago

Yeah...nevermind that minimum wage mandated increases made up the bulk of that figure.

More smoke and mirror action from the Trump apologists.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.3  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Studiusbagus @3.1.2    8 years ago

I’m not apologizing for anything and I’m not one that feels raising the cost of doing business is beneficial in a global economy. It creates localized inflation making us less competitive in the world markets. I favor letting the free market set the wages. Our population has doubled since the sixties and automation has changed the need for manual low skilled labor. There are many factors involved in how the market wages are driven. With so many burger flipping jobs and so little manufacturered here because our wages are too high to compete in the global market this should not be unexpected. 

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
3.1.4  seeder  Ender  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.1    8 years ago

That link requires a subscription.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.5  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Ender @3.1.4    8 years ago

A quick google search and you will find many news services reporting the same. 

 
 
 
Hal A. Lujah
Professor Participates
3.1.6  Hal A. Lujah  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.3    8 years ago

I favor letting the free market set the wages.

How about healthcare?  Do you think it’s right for the fox to be guarding the henhouse when the consequences are life and death?

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.7  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Hal A. Lujah @3.1.6    8 years ago

Yes I do and have a friend that is a retired neurosurgeon that came to America for that very reason. I’m glad he was able to come to America and earn what his skills were really worth leaving behind a nation where his earnings were restricted. 

 
 
 
Hal A. Lujah
Professor Participates
3.1.8  Hal A. Lujah  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.7    8 years ago

And how many people suffered or died because they couldn’t afford his severely overpriced services?  Awe shucks, who cares about them.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
3.1.9  seeder  Ender  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.5    8 years ago

0.2% has been average for a while. The top tier is getting a lot more growth than the lower laborers. The divide is still growing.

When American Airlines announced last year they would be giving raises to pilots and flight attendants, the company's stock tanked by 5.2%  in one day .

"This is frustrating. Labor is being paid first again. Shareholders get leftovers," Citi analyst Kevin Crissey wrote in a note to clients, the Los Angeles Times reported.

In fact, airlines are facing  a massive pilot shortage  right now  because  labor hasn't been getting paid first. Pilots' median earnings decreased by 9.5% from 2000 to 2012, according to  a Government Accountability Office report .

Rosenfeld said that market moves like that have helped keep wages low.

"There is this idea that shareholders are the one set of stakeholders that deserve the largest share of a company's profits, rather than balancing the need of other stakeholders like workers or consumers," Rosenfeld said.

This says it all. Shareholders and top market financiers didn't like the idea of the workers getting a larger cut.

For wages to grow on a sustained basis, workers’ productivity must rise, meaning they must steadily produce more per hour, often with the help of new technology or capital. Further, workers must receive a consistent share of those productivity gains, rather than seeing their share decline. Finally, for the typical worker to see a raise, it is important that workers’ gains are spread across the income distribution. If wages are rising but the increases are all going to the best-paid workers, the typical worker doesn’t see a gain. Two of these conditions have not been met, which explains the fact that productivity has risen while the median wage has barely changed.

In a notable shift from earlier decades, labor’s share of income is no longer constant, but has fallen from nearly 65% in the mid-1970s to below 57% in 2017. Though some of this decline reflects measurement limitations, much of the decline is plausibly due to shifts in technology and market structure that have disadvantaged workers. Even as the share of income channeled to labor has declined, the distribution of income has become more unequal. Since the late 1970s, large wage gains have accrued to workers at the top of the distribution, and wages have been declining or stagnant for the bottom half of the income distribution.

There are many different views one can get on this and most are not that spectacular. There are many factors as well. As Stu pointed out, some states and municipalities increased minimum wages.

A lot of gains are also being eaten up by inflation.

However the unemployment rate is now at 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969, and wage pressures have begun to build. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to stave off future inflationary pressures, though the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation rose just 2.5 percent in the third quarter, including a 1.9 percent increase for health benefits.

 In real terms, the increase is just over 1%. As Jeffrey Pavlik noted on Forbes last month, the  CPI hit 2.9% in July , which was a ten-year high. Inflation eats up real earnings.

In other words, should gains be lauded? Yes, yet at the same time these gains are very modest compared to what the top tier are making. The modest gains are just that, modest. With most of it eaten up by inflation.

After the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly Employment Situation report landed on Friday, much of the coverage focused on the increase in average hourly earnings. Up by 2.9% over the last year, it seemed important given how employee pay has lagged overall economic growth. Particularly when you remember that while the well-off saw significant gains in their net worth,  most people saw a big loss  and are still pulling themselves out of a financial pit.
 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.10  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Ender @3.1.9    8 years ago

I would expect the top tier to make greater gains when the rest are competing for lower skilled jobs against a growing supply of workers as a result of the population explosion and development of automation. This does not come as a surprise to me. As for the gains in equities they will be the hardest hit come the next downturn. Easy come easy go. I like playing in equities as much as the next guy but realize they are high risk investments. 

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3.1.11  bbl-1  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.10    8 years ago

'Top tier making greater gains?' 

Doesn't say much for the soldiers losing their lives or limbs for the top tiers.  Or the pizza delivery drivers being beaten and robbed when delivering pizza for the top tiers either.

Wealth is the only determinant factor of importance?

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3.1.12  bbl-1  replied to  Ender @3.1.9    8 years ago

Supply Side Economics is doing exactly what it was bred to do.  Concentrate the wealth and consolidate the power.

 
 
 
livefreeordie
Junior Silent
3.1.14  livefreeordie  replied to  bbl-1 @3.1.11    8 years ago

No one enters the military to get wealthy. We do it to serve our country

in my first year in the military I had a 75% reduction in pay from my civilian job and received $73 a month.

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3.1.15  bbl-1  replied to  livefreeordie @3.1.14    8 years ago

The point of this discussion has successfully eluded you.

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3.1.17  bbl-1  replied to  Texan1211 @3.1.16    8 years ago

For starters.  End SSE with extreme prejudice.  Install a system based on fair equity.  Go from there.  If the new system has a flaw, fix it and continue on.

'Progressive liberal?'  Has nothing to do with anything. 

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
3.1.19  seeder  Ender  replied to  Texan1211 @3.1.16    8 years ago

Substantial Shareholdings Exemption ?

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
3.1.20  bbl-1  replied to  XDm9mm @3.1.18    8 years ago

That suggestion is yours.  I have no idea what you're talking about.

 
 
 
Studiusbagus
Sophomore Silent
3.1.24  Studiusbagus  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.3    8 years ago
I’m not one that feels raising the cost of doing business is beneficial in a global economy.

And yet so quick to tout wages going up 3.1%. When it had nothing to do with anything but increased minimum wage.

So, you must be furious that businesses are declaring bankruptcy at such high rates and larger manufacturers are closing plants while complaining about the higher cost of doing business due to Trump's policies?

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Silent
3.1.25  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Studiusbagus @3.1.24    8 years ago

I have no problem with failed businesses going belly up I don’t believe in government bailouts. That’s how the free market is supposed to work. Well run businesses are doing well and the failures should fail. I’m not aware of an economic downturn as the Fed just had its fourth rate hike of the year in an attempt to slow the hot economy and are signaling two more for next year. 

Just like Milton Friedman I’m opposed to tariffs and government protectionism. I was opposed to Obama’s tariffs and the same with Trumps. 

 
 
 
Studiusbagus
Sophomore Silent
3.1.26  Studiusbagus  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.25    8 years ago
I’m not aware of an economic downturn as the Fed just had its fourth rate hike of the year in an attempt to slow the hot economy and are signaling two more for next year. 

So, housing starts falling off and gaining speed hasn't crossed your path?

And that started before the Fed started jacking rates regularly.

Offshoring of jobs has not decreased in the last two years, it has increased. Sears/Kmart has until 4 pm today to find a white knight. Just on the Sears side is 90,000 employees. JCP stock went under $1 a share this week...

Fresh goods, especially meats and soon even moreso, vegetables we import have jumped, staples like bacon, eggs, milk and butter have all jumped 20% or more. Flour is going through the roof.

What was a $100 grocery week is now $130 that's a little over 1/2 what a family of 4 saves on the new tax laws.

Factor in tariffs and zero benefit.

Add in that the market is stumbling like a town drunk ready to fall over, companies turning in depressing reports.

The auto market is about to hit it's 7 year swing. Notice the increase in leasing ads and ridiculous finance rates? 

I'd say the shit is about to get sticky.

 
 
 
livefreeordie
Junior Silent
5  livefreeordie    8 years ago

Bring on the Fair Tax and end the Communist progressive income tax

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Expert
5.2  seeder  Ender  replied to  livefreeordie @5    8 years ago

Call it what you want yet it will never happen. That is basically getting rid of everything, including Medicare and SS and replacing with basically a VAT tax.

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Silent
5.2.1  bbl-1  replied to  Ender @5.2    8 years ago

( Communist ) was the dead giveaway.  Never forget that it was the conservative money changers that demanded Pilate crucify Him.

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
PhD Silent
6  igknorantzrulz    8 years ago

what a bad joke this crap was , and is, and will continue to be

 
 

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