California recall: Newsom leads latest polls as election approaches
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Tom CoulterPalm Springs Desert Sun
PALM SPRINGS, Calif. - With less than two weeks left until California's recall election, polls released this week indicate that a majority of the state's voters want to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom in office, a change of course from recent polls that have forecasted a tight contest.
A poll released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 39% of likely voters in the recall election say they would vote to remove Newsom, while 58% are opposed to the recall.
Opinions on the recall contrasted sharply between parties, with 82% of Republicans in favor of ousting Newsom, compared to just 7% of Democrats, according to the poll. Independent voters, meanwhile, were fairly split, with 44% in favor of the recall and 49% opposed.
The responses also indicate that most California voters are engaged with the election, despite earlier polls indicating Democrats were less enthusiastic. About 70% of likely voters say that the recall election is "very important" to them, including solid majorities among both Republicans and Democrats, and 47% of voters say they are more energized than usual to cast their ballots.
The PPIC poll was released the day after another poll found that a majority of California voters would vote "no" on the recall. That poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the San Diego Union-Tribune, found that 51% of respondents wanted Newsom to keep his seat, while 43% said they would vote to remove him.
The polls this week offer some positive signs to Newsom's team, especially after polling this summer indicated that the race was in a dead heat. For example, a UC Berkeley poll released in late July found that just 50% of likely voters were in favor of retaining Newsom, while 47% supported the recall.
The numbers have been trending in Newsom's favor the last couple of weeks. Polling averages from the data and politics website FiveThirtyEight show 51.1% of voters opposed to the recall and 45.3% in favor of it — figures that had not yet been updated Wednesday to include the PPIC poll's far wider margin. In early August, the same averages showed Newsom with a razor-thin margin of 0.2 points.
The PPIC poll released Wednesday also found that attorney and conservative talk show host Larry Elder remains the election's leading replacement candidate, supporting the findings of other recent polls.
Elder was by far the leader among the field, with 26% of likely voters supporting him in the poll. Former San Diego Mayor and Republican Kevin Faulconer was a distant second among the candidates, with 5% of respondents planning to vote for him.
The poll also underscored the strange dynamics of the recall election, in which Newsom and Democratic party leaders have been encouraging their supports to leave the second question blank — a move allowed in the state's recall process.
Their messaging seems to have worked to some extent, as a quarter of likely voters said they wouldn't select a candidate on the ballot's second question. Another substantial portion, 24% of respondents, said they were still unsure of how they would vote on the replacement candidate question.
The poll released by the PPIC also offered some insight on what is driving Californians to vote in the recall, with COVID-19 ranked as the top issue among a plurality of respondents, followed by the job market and homelessness.
Most have been supportive of vaccinations efforts by Newsom and state leaders. The poll found that more than three in four respondents think the state is doing an excellent or good job distributing COVID-19 vaccines.
Additionally, 61% of Californians favor requiring proof of COVID vaccination for large outdoor gatherings or certain indoor spaces, according to the poll. That stance puts most Californians at odds with Elder, who has vowed to fight governmental mask and vaccination mandates if elected.
Newsom's approval rating, meanwhile, stood at 53% in the PPIC poll, and has remained fairly level throughout this year. However, fewer than half of respondents, 47%, say that California is headed in the right direction — down from 58% in May 2020.
But the PPIC poll noted that less than a quarter of voters thought California was headed in the right direction under former California Gov. Gray Davis, the state's only governor to be recalled, before his defeat in 2003.
"The mood today is decidedly better than when Governor Davis was facing a recall in 2003 (24% right direction in September 2003)," the poll's authors wrote.
Youth, Latino turnout lagging so far
While recent polls favor Newsom to defeat the recall, initial voting data suggests that the first-term governor still has some work to do in getting young and Latino voters to turn out for him.
After ballots were sent out to every registered voter statewide in mid-August, 21.3% of those, or about 4.7 million out of 22.3 million, had been returned as of Tuesday, according to the California Secretary of State's office.
Turnout could play a crucial role in the race, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by about a two-to-one margin. So far, Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots as Republican voters, according to research conducted by Political Data Inc.
"Around the state we have had many special elections that have had turnout in the high-teens to mid-30% range, the kind of electorate that could have very strange outcomes," Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said in an email. "But this recall special election seems to be poised to blast past those kinds of numbers."
Still, some crucial voting blocs have yet to return their ballots. Just 10% of registered voters ages 18 through 34 have returned their ballot so far, according to Political Data Inc. In contrast, 37% of voters ages 65 and up have already returned their ballots.
The trend is especially crucial for Newsom, as 56% of voters in the 18-to-34 age demographic are registered Democrats, compared to just 15% who are registered Republicans.
Latino voters, who have been targeted by both Newsom and his opponents in recent weeks, also have reportedly been slow to return their ballots, with just 13% having done so.
While some groups have been slow to return their ballots, the mailing of ballots to every registered voter - a move approved by state lawmakers as a COVID-19 precaution - should lead to some increase in how many Californians ultimately weigh in.
Andrew Hall, a political science professor at Stanford University who specializes in elections, said the effects of universal vote-by-mail are greater in off-year elections, such as this one. He estimated turnout could be up to 6% higher than if California didn't have the universal provision.
Election Day is Tuesday, Sept. 14.
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That is a 19 point gap in favor of Newsome.
The wide spread has opened because the electorate has come to realize that Larry Elder could be the next governor unless they vote no on the recall. Larry Elder is one of the most extremist (far right) mainstream political candidates in modern American history.
Newsome will retain his governorship.
September 14th is the day. We shall see.
As more Californians become engaged in the recall election it is clear that Elders presence as the GOP frontrunner is energizing Democrat voters opinions in favor of Newsome.
Elder is mildly entertaining as a far right talk show host. His support to be governor is something like 26% , which could still be good enough if the vote to recall Newsome reaches 50%.
Elder is an absolute right wing extremist on virtually every issue of the day. That is not California.
Like DeSantis, Abbott, etc... The right wing is now at the point of openly embracing fascism.
And before someone says that fascism is a left wing ideology?
Fascism ( / ˈ f æ ʃ ɪ z əm / ) is a form of far-right , authoritarian ultranationalism [1] [2] characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy, [3] which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe. [4] The first fascist movements emerged in Italy during World War I , before spreading to other European countries . [4] Opposed to anarchism , democracy , liberalism , and Marxism , fascism is placed on the far right-wing within the traditional left–right spectrum . [4] [5] [6]
Fascists saw World War I as a revolution that brought massive changes to the nature of war, society, the state, and technology. The advent of total war and the total mass mobilization of society had broken down the distinction between civilians and combatants. A military citizenship arose in which all citizens were involved with the military in some manner during the war. [7] [8] The war had resulted in the rise of a powerful state capable of mobilizing millions of people to serve on the front lines and providing economic production and logistics to support them, as well as having unprecedented authority to intervene in the lives of citizens. [7] [8]
Fascists believe that liberal democracy is obsolete and regard the complete mobilization of society under a totalitarian one-party state as necessary to prepare a nation for armed conflict and to respond effectively to economic difficulties. [9] A fascist state is led by a strong leader (such as a dictator ) and a martial law government composed of the members of the governing fascist party to forge national unity and maintain a stable and orderly society. [9] Fascism rejects assertions that violence is automatically negative in nature and views imperialism , political violence and war as means that can achieve national rejuvenation. [10] [11] Fascists advocate a mixed economy , with the principal goal of achieving autarky (national economic self-sufficiency) through protectionist and economic interventionist policies. [12] The extreme authoritarianism and nationalism of fascism often manifests a belief in racial purity or a master race , usually synthesized with some variant of racism or bigotry of a demonized other ; the idea of racial purity has motivated fascist regimes to commit massacres , forced sterilizations , genocides , mass killings , or forced deportations against a perceived other. [13] [14] [15]
Since the end of World War II in 1945, few parties have openly described themselves as fascist , and the term is instead now usually used pejoratively by political opponents. The descriptions of neo-fascist or post-fascist are sometimes applied more formally to describe contemporary parties of the far-right with ideologies similar to, or rooted in, 20th-century fascist movements. [4] [16]
Democrats are pulling out all the stops. I'm sure that most Californians who have long suffered under his radical regime are fed up. You do have that thing out in California where non-citizens are able to vote. That night save Newsom, but the recall system itself puts him at a disadvantage.
Elder is an absolute right wing extremist on virtually every issue of the day.
You say that about everyone who isn't a drooling radical leftist.
California will never be a fascist republican state again.
Looks to me like most republicans just can't get over the loss of the 2020 election.
Well, since it never was one, that's probably good news.
But predictions about the death of the GOP --even in California---have been greatly exaggerated.
Funny how people never seem to learn about making such declarations.
Cheered on by the minions of the right on many a site such as this, CA 'republicans' voted with their 'feet'.
True, as California DID lose a seat in Congress.
Half for the recall think Newsom is too conservative.
Doubtful.
If true, one would expect to see some criticisms of the Governor coming from the progressive left.
There are lots of critics of Newsom on the left.
Must be silent critics then.
I haven't seen much coming from our progressive liberal friends in the way of criticism.
The recall is dumb. Most recalls are bogus attempts to undo an election and aren’t based on an urgent need to remove an official who has done something unexpected or inappropriate. We are going to have a regularly scheduled election for governor next year. This could have waited.
And if by some miracle, the recall does go through, we will elect his replacement with a highly non-democratic plurality of something like 10% of the vote or less.