Without drastic changes, Dems are on track to lose big in 2022
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.
Moreover, President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors - Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.
Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing-states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job President Biden is doing by a margin of 7-points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week.
Nationally, one-half (50 percent) of voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.
For reference, at the same point in Barack Obama's first term, Obama's net approval rating was 19-points higher than Biden's is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009.
That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seats, and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate.
Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Bill Clinton's approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve/42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clinton's net approval rating was 13-points higher than Biden's currently is at the same point in his presidency.
Yet, in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats, and Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate.
To note, Democrats' blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior.
The Democrats' 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters' perception of an ineffective economic stimulus, as well as governmental overreach on healthcare and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.
To note, a number of recent polls show that voters have grown increasingly negative on the Biden administration's handling of major domestic issues, including the economy, COVID-19, immigration at the southern border and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
And now, with congressional Democrats having approved a budget blueprint in their $3.5 trillion dollar spending bill - which will bring massive tax increases, and will likely increase the debt, deficit, and inflation - the electoral backlash against Democrats could be even more substantial than in both 1994 and 2010.
In addition to Joe Biden's precipitous national decline, the president's approval rating in key swing states, most of which he won in 2020, has dropped. This of course bodes poorly for Democrats' 2022 prospects - and also makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president-notwithstanding a dramatic turn of events in Democrats' favor.
In five key swing states - Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania - voters disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a 10-point margin or greater, according to the aforementioned Civiqs polls. To note, Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in 2020, and narrowly lost North Carolina and Florida.
And in Michigan and Wisconsin - two swing-states that were once reliably Democratic, both of which Biden won in 2020 - voters now disapprove of the president's job performance by margins of 7- and 8-points respectively.
It is noteworthy that, both nationally and in these key states, President Biden's approval has been driven down in large part by Independent voters. Though Biden won national Independent voters handily in 2020, a majority (58 percent) now disapprove of the president, while just 31 percent approve.
This data is clearly troubling for Democrats - especially when taken together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party. Republicans need to pick up just five House seats, and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that amount.
Further, since World War II, only twice has the president's party gained seats in the midterm elections - in 1998 and 2002, when both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent, and even so, only saw meager House seat gains.
Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim - and it could get even worse.
If the Biden administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy, Democrats could suffer the most substantial midterm loss of any party in recent history.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the co-author of a forthcoming book "The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat."
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A little good news for America.
Clearly the Democrats can't stop themselves from these massive tax increases and spending bills.
Same as it ever was.
ignore history at your party's own peril.
Pretend everything is all rosy for Democrats, and above all else, please keep pretending that Democrats will have a good mid-term election.
Ignore history at your party's own peril.
Pretend everything is all rosy for the alleged conservatives/republicans/gqp, and above all else, please keep pretending that alleged conservatives/republicans/gqp will have a good mid-term election.
If you actually knew any history, you would know what happens in midterms, especially when a President's popularity is sinking.
I will gladly be here the day after the elections to serve a big old heaping helping of crow!
You want ketchup with that?
Can you come up with anything original?
Go ahead and rage at the mid term adjustments voters make. 1994 and 2010 all over again! We are looking forward to viewing with great pleasure another howling at the moon event!
The alleged conservatives can keep on dreaming (more like a nightmare) that they will be winning big in 2022 (that would be a nightmare).
Your gal Nancy is losing her position as Speaker!
My suggestion for Democrats wanting to raise taxes---feel free to send the IRS any and all money you consider to be your "fair share", no matter what you actually owe.
Can the Biden Administration do anything BUT that?
Does America know Democrats will raise their taxes?
Do Americans care about the flood of illegal aliens here, with more coming all the time?
Do Americans listen to what some of our allies have said after the Afghanistan fiasco?
Sorry, the Afghanistan fiasco is still going on so long as 1 US citizen that was abandoned by Biden is still stuck there at the mercy of the Taliban. Voters need to be reminded daily of Biden's trust in terrorists to do the right thing; and the praise his administration has heaped on the Taliban.
All the Democrats have is Trump and Jan 6th; they are playing both up as much as they can. They cannot be allowed to divert attention from the human fuck up machine they put in the White House.
You have no faith in our Tollybonn partners?
Nyet!
There are many Americans that are completely oblivious to any of the questions you ask. It's apparent after making a cursory look here on NT. Many are STILL hung up on the unfounded claims about the previous President. And those very few who aren't still wrapped up in that have the attention span of toddler. In a nut shell, they are acting just like Pedo Joe, completely out of touch. It's a miracle that they can blink and breath simultaneously.
We always have voters who forget. Why did we have to go through this again?
Ya, it's going to be a landslide in 2022, but why did we let it happen in the first place?
Because many voters didn't care that Biden is an incompetent asshole that has been proven continuously to be on the wrong side over his 40 year political career. The media didn't vet Biden; and he was allowed to hide in his basement for the vast majority of the Democratic primaries and general election. They allowed Biden to run on "not being Trump". That allowed him to win the election. More people cared about getting rid of Trump; than putting the human fuck up machine in office. Many still don't care- so long as Biden isn't Trump he is good to go in their minds.
We will see if Biden "not being Trump" is good enough to keep Democrats from losing big in midterms. History is not on their side.
In the words of Rodney King, "Can we all just get along?"
Kroger is looking at another 2% to 3% price increase in the cost of groceries thru the end of the year. If inflation continues to go up rather then what Washington has said will happen (that this is only temporary due to the supply chain interruptions) then I suspect 2022 is going to be even worse for the Democrats. Where there are plenty of people who vote for their party over anything else, there are enough people who don't and will vote on kitchen table issues that are right in front of them. And inflation can be a huge issue for people.
It'll be a landslide for the Democrats. Keep dreaming alleged conservatives!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's not President Biden's fault that inflation is happening.
I didn't say it was Biden's fault, but it is partially the fault of Biden and the Democrats due to their continued spending and push for even more spending.
But inflation is a kitchen table issue and usually voters will blame the party in power for it. We shall see how it all turns out but if inflation does continue to go up I suspect the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in 22.
Either way, Biden accepted responsibility for it when he raised his right hand and took the Oath of Office as president. He owns it as of January of this year like it or not.
No, it's not.
Keep dreaming.
Ya! It's the Democrats who are going to win in a landslide. Ya!
So does that mean you are clairvoyant?
Hilarious. Notice how the title is prefaced “without drastic changes”. The nostradumbasses on the right need an out for when their incredibly unpopular dreams inevitably fail.
They're going to lose BIGLY, AGAIN.