Biden closes in on deal with Manchin, Sinema as liberals wince

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www.politico.com /news/2021/10/27/top-dems-social-spending-deal-manchin-sinema-517332

Biden closes in on deal with Manchin, Sinema as liberals wince
Burgess Everett, Heather Caygle, Sarah Ferris7-9 minutes 10/27/2021


Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema left a two-hour meeting with White House officials seemingly on the verge of an agreement to advance President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda — depending on whether their fellow Democrats sign on.

And, in a sign of Biden’s entreaties to progressives, the president hosted Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for an afternoon meeting, according to a Democratic source. Sanders has objected to the possible exclusion of his Medicare expansion proposal from a deal, as Manchin has raised doubts about expanding government programs.

“Everybody is working in such good faith. The president’s been wonderful,” Manchin said as progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) yanked him into an elevator on Wednesday afternoon. “There’s 50 of us.”
Several Democrats said the deal was essentially done, pending Biden's and Sanders’ final sign offs. If they clinch a deal, the president is expected to come to the House to pitch Democrats on an infrastructure vote, possibly delaying his overseas flight Thursday morning. Many lawmakers plan to attend the congressional softball game Wednesday night.

“My hope would be tomorrow,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said of an infrastructure vote. “The speaker and I both believe we need to get this bill done, and that's why we're working so hard to get a framework.”

Though a breakthrough would deliver Democrats a major momentum boost after months of dragging debate, Manchin underscored that the rest of his 50-member caucus would need to sign off on any agreement he and Sinema reached with Biden: “It’s really up to the rest of the caucus.”

Wednesday's lengthy meeting between White House aides and the moderates from West Virginia and Arizona followed a sitdown with Biden on Tuesday evening to hash out remaining obstacles to enacting the party's once-lofty social spending vision.
The sudden urgency could be crucial to moving the bipartisan infrastructure bill to Biden's desk before next week's New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. Yet it will also require buy-in from skeptical progressives, who are seeing their priorities increasingly shrunk or left behind.

But even if a framework is released in short order, House Democrats do not yet have the votes for infrastructure this week. Leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus warned Wednesday that roughly “three dozen” of their members have demanded more than Biden simply announcing a deal.

Privately, though, some Democrats said the number of hard “no” members was closer to a dozen. Those could be offset by moderate Republican votes, but still represent a problem for House leadership.

Manchin said Democrats could "absolutely" clinch a deal Wednesday. He argued that "good faith" negotiations about a forthcoming climate and social spending bill are enough to unstick the Senate’s infrastructure bill. Sinema said she's "doing great, making progress."

“The president has made that very clear: He wants to move forward. And we owe it to the president to move forward, take a vote on the infrastructure bill,” Manchin told reporters on Wednesday morning. “He believes 100 percent of nothing is nothing.”
Once pegged at $3.5 trillion, the bill's price tag is now below $2 trillion, with Democrats privately holding out hope that Manchin will come up from $1.5 trillion to at least $1.75 trillion. Democratic leaders are still pushing for a framework this week as Biden prepares to head overseas.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that there could be some flexibility on what time on Thursday the president leaves for Europe, but that it should not be expected that he would delay his trip.

Biden will “go over to the House, and he’ll basically explain to the House: ‘I have a framework, but there's still an awful lot of work to be done,’” Manchin said.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi told House Democrats on Wednesday morning that her party is “in pretty good shape.” Even so, Pelosi continues to face an intense push-pull from liberals — who want to see a full social spending bill before voting on the Senate's bipartisan infrastructure deal — and moderates who want to get the long-coming infrastructure vote set as soon as possible.

“It’s lamb eat lamb. There is no bad decision. We have to choose,” Pelosi told her members, according to a source familiar with her remarks. Senate Democrats say it’s highly unlikely bill text will be totally finalized this week, however.
Progressives have also blanched at Sinema’s efforts to avoid raising tax rates and Manchin’s move to cut the bill's total cost. Those moves have prompted a deal on a corporate minimum tax and tenuous negotiations on a tax on billionaires, as well as potential cuts to plans for broadening Medicare, Medicaid expansion and paid leave. Efforts to lower drug prices through Medicare negotiations are headed toward a more limited approach, Democrats said.

By midday Wednesday, the billionaire tax was out of the mix, according to multiple sources familiar with the talks. Manchin said the tax on billionaire’s assets is “convoluted” and instead pitched a “patriotic” 15 percent tax on wealthy people. He said he did not want to target a certain class of people through the tax code.

His comments complicated negotiations, some Democrats said.

"I continue to be optimistic that on the spending side, there are pathways toward closing the remaining gaps," said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). "But I recognize that Sen. Manchin's just made a comment that made some of the revenue side" more complex, he added.

With the billionaires tax out, Democrats are now taking another look at a surtax on people making more than $5 million a year that the House Ways and Means Committee passed last month.
Manchin also continued to throw cold water on health care and paid leave proposals, citing the debt and deficit as reason enough to hold the line on creating new spending programs. Warren said that "it's not looking good" for paid leave.

Democrats are more confident about climate subsidies and universal pre-K making it into in the package, along with an extension of the Child Tax Credit. But it all comes down to where Manchin and Sinema fall — and whether the rest of the party’s thin majorities go along with Biden's dealmaking. Chairs of the Senate's climate-related committees met again on Wednesday afternoon, according to Democratic sources.

Passing the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill will require a furious whipping operation in the House, where many progressives are still demanding more than just a framework from Biden on the safety net plan. Some want to see a Senate vote on the bill, an implausible scenario this week. But senior Democrats privately hope they can win over enough liberals with a deal that would allow them to pass the bill.

In a private caucus meeting Wednesday, Pelosi insisted the two bills would not have to be voted on at the same time, despite calls from the left flank to do so.

"I don’t want to get any impression that there was any promise these two would go together. At least I wasn’t part of that,” Pelosi said, according to Democrats in the room.

Without action on infrastructure, both chambers would need to quickly clear a stopgap for federal highway programs, which expire on Oct. 31.

Bernie Becker and Caitlin Emma contributed to this report.