New data from Virginia governor's race signal big trouble for Democrats in 2022 | Washington Examiner
Category: News & PoliticsVia: texan1211 • 3 weeks ago • 11 comments
By: becketadams (Washington Examiner)
Virginia Democrats suffered a bloodbath on Nov. 2. Republicans captured not only the governor's mansion but the House of Delegates, as well as the offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general.
On Tuesday, with the release of the certified results of the Virginia governor's race, more bad news emerged for Democrats in the Old Dominion.
Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin's vote total was 85% of former President Donald Trump's vote total in Virginia in the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe's vote total was only 66% of what President Joe Biden won in the state in the same election last year.
In total, 3,289,430 Virginians voted in the 2021 Virginia governor's race — up an impressive 25% from the 2017 gubernatorial race. And Republicans increased their vote margin this year in all of Virginia's 11 congressional districts, upping their numbers significantly from the previous election cycle, according to the Virginia Public Access Project .
In Virginia's 1st Congressional District, the GOP improved its margin by 8.5 points, in the second by 12.5 points, in the third by 12.4 points, and so on.
Democrats currently represent seven of Virginia's 11 congressional districts. On Nov. 2, Youngkin carried six , two of which are represented currently by Democratic lawmakers. And the Republican candidate didn't just win these — he won them big.
The Virginia Beach-area 2nd District, which at R+1 is a toss-up district and is represented by Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, went for Youngkin by 8 points.
Virginia's 7th, an R+3 congressional district, is represented by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Youngkin won it by 11 points.
In Virginia's 10th Congressional District, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, Youngkin lost. However, his 5-point margin of defeat is not what Virginia Democrats want to see in the 2022 midterm elections.
Of course, these data points alone aren't enough to draw conclusions about Democrats' chances next year. However, when we compare how Youngkin performed this year to how Republicans performed in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race, a clearer picture emerges of what Democrats have to fear in next year's midterm elections.
Data compiled this year by the New York Times also show a statewide shift in the GOP's favor , across every country and district, in comparison to how Virginians voted in the 2020 presidential election. Put more simply, every single county shifted to the right in the 2021 governor's race, in the direction of the Republican Party, just months after Biden won the commonwealth with 54%.
Youngkin's success in winning two districts represented by Democrats, the statewide shift since the 2020 election toward Republicans, and the Virginia Republican Party's increase in its vote margin in all 11 congressional districts all point to a tough year for Democrats ahead.