New data from Virginia governor's race signal big trouble for Democrats in 2022 | Washington Examiner

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  texan1211  •  3 weeks ago  •  11 comments

By:   becketadams (Washington Examiner)

New data from Virginia governor's race signal big trouble for Democrats in 2022 | Washington Examiner
Virginia Democrats suffered a bloodbath on Nov. 2. Republicans captured not only the governor's mansion but the House of Delegates, as well as the offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Virginia Democrats suffered a bloodbath on Nov. 2. Republicans captured not only the governor's mansion but the House of Delegates, as well as the offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general.

On Tuesday, with the release of the certified results of the Virginia governor's race, more bad news emerged for Democrats in the Old Dominion.

Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin's vote total was 85% of former President Donald Trump's vote total in Virginia in the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe's vote total was only 66% of what President Joe Biden won in the state in the same election last year.

In total, 3,289,430 Virginians voted in the 2021 Virginia governor's race — up an impressive 25% from the 2017 gubernatorial race. And Republicans increased their vote margin this year in all of Virginia's 11 congressional districts, upping their numbers significantly from the previous election cycle, according to the Virginia Public Access Project .

In Virginia's 1st Congressional District, the GOP improved its margin by 8.5 points, in the second by 12.5 points, in the third by 12.4 points, and so on.

Democrats currently represent seven of Virginia's 11 congressional districts. On Nov. 2, Youngkin carried six , two of which are represented currently by Democratic lawmakers. And the Republican candidate didn't just win these — he won them big.

The Virginia Beach-area 2nd District, which at R+1 is a toss-up district and is represented by Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, went for Youngkin by 8 points.

Virginia's 7th, an R+3 congressional district, is represented by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Youngkin won it by 11 points.

In Virginia's 10th Congressional District, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, Youngkin lost. However, his 5-point margin of defeat is not what Virginia Democrats want to see in the 2022 midterm elections.

Of course, these data points alone aren't enough to draw conclusions about Democrats' chances next year. However, when we compare how Youngkin performed this year to how Republicans performed in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race, a clearer picture emerges of what Democrats have to fear in next year's midterm elections.

Data compiled this year by the New York Times also show a statewide shift in the GOP's favor , across every country and district, in comparison to how Virginians voted in the 2020 presidential election. Put more simply, every single county shifted to the right in the 2021 governor's race, in the direction of the Republican Party, just months after Biden won the commonwealth with 54%.

Youngkin's success in winning two districts represented by Democrats, the statewide shift since the 2020 election toward Republicans, and the Virginia Republican Party's increase in its vote margin in all 11 congressional districts all point to a tough year for Democrats ahead.


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Texan1211
Professor Principal
1  seeder  Texan1211    3 weeks ago

A MUCH larger voter turnout than in 2017.

How is that even possible?

Surely there must have been massive voter fraud for Republicans to win (and win BIG) when turnout is so high.

Thanks, Joe, er, Brandon!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  Texan1211 @1    3 weeks ago

We have congressional democrats announcing they won't bother running next year and we have Texas democrats switching over to Republican. The handwriting is on the wall. They let the progressive wing set the agenda and they are going to pay for it next year.

Joe Manchin tried to tell them:  This isn't a leftist country, it's not even a center left country - it is still very much a center right country!

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
1.1.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1    3 weeks ago

So much for turning Texas blue or even purple…

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Expert
1.1.2  Sean Treacy  replied to  XXJefferson51 @1.1.1    3 weeks ago
So much for turning Texas blue or even purple…

No trust in Beato?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
1.1.3  seeder  Texan1211  replied to  Sean Treacy @1.1.2    3 weeks ago

Beto has never won a statewide race in Texas, and currently, polls show him trailing Abbott by 9 points.

Other than his money-raising abilities, Beto is short on substance.

He will go down just as fast as Wendy Davis did.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Expert
1.1.4  Sean Treacy  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1.3    3 weeks ago

Its amazing how happily liberals give him money. Just burn it and  cut out the middleman. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
1.1.5  seeder  Texan1211  replied to  Sean Treacy @1.1.4    3 weeks ago

I don't believe that the Democratic Party or its fundraising will be supportive of Beto running. They might have finally wised up to the fact that they have little chance at winning in Texas' or Florida's governor races, and will instead sink money into defending seats they had previously considered secure for them.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
1.1.6  XXJefferson51  replied to  Sean Treacy @1.1.4    3 weeks ago

He’s their would be gun grabber in chief!  

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Expert
2  Sean Treacy    3 weeks ago

Winning power and having to govern always hurts Democrats politically. 

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
2.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  Sean Treacy @2    3 weeks ago

Because they govern much further to the left than what would be rational

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1.1  seeder  Texan1211  replied to  XXJefferson51 @2.1    3 weeks ago

That is true.

Democrats want to act as if they have some mandate from the public even when races are close, or majorities in Congress are razor-thin.

 
 
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