The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates for 2024, ranked

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  vic-eldred  •  one month ago  •  17 comments

By:   By Aaron Blake

The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates for 2024, ranked
The poll, from YouGov, asked about the 2024 Democratic presidential primary; only 21 percent of Democratic-leaning voters said their choice was the incumbent Democratic president, Joe Biden. That put him barely ahead of the 18 percent who said they weren’t sure whom they supported; Vice President Harris and Bernie Sanders each had 14 percent shares. This is not normal. We’ve seen some evidence that Democrats aren’t sold on nominating President Biden for a second term, including a poll in...

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In late February we were all preoccupied with events elsewhere in the world — so you would be forgiven for having missed even a very interesting poll about U.S. politics. (We did, and we write about these things for a living.)
The poll, from YouGov, asked about the 2024 Democratic presidential primary; only 21 percent  of Democratic-leaning voters said their choice was the incumbent Democratic president, Joe Biden. That put him barely ahead of the 18 percent who said they weren’t sure whom they supported; Vice President Harris and Bernie Sanders each had 14 percent shares.
This is not normal. We’ve seen some evidence that Democrats aren’t sold on nominating President Biden for a second term, including a poll in November showing  a majority of Democrats didn’t want him to run again . But lots of Republicans say the same about a repeat run for Donald Trump in 2024 — yet he’s  the clear front-runner when you pit him against actual would-be opponents.
Democrats need to decide what this means for them. Certainly, there’s an argument to be made that the best path forward is to pick a different nominee. But if Biden is intent on running again, do you allow a competitive primary that could put the choice in voters’ hands — and risk damaging the incumbent president,  al a Jimmy Carter vs. Ted Kennedy in 1980 ? Do you subtly suggest to Biden that it might be better to pass the torch, and hope that it works? Or do you just hope things with his presidency get better?

These very important questions will probably have to wait until after Democrats see how the 2022 elections pan out. But in the meantime, we’ve seen the kind of jockeying you might expect in such a scenario. Biden  hasn’t even been totally explicit that he will run again , which would seem to give the greenlight to others prepping for the case that he won’t.
With all of this in mind, we’re changing our approach to our quarterly presidential rankings. In previous installments, we excluded Biden from the list, suggesting we’d probably have a true primary only if he didn’t run. But we increasingly need to consider the possibility that, if he does run, he won’t have the field to himself — and that he might not be the most likely nominee, all things considered.





Below are our latest rankings.



Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Stacey Abrams, Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.)



10. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez : The more obvious path for the 32-year-old congresswoman would be to bide her time for the right opportunity to run for Senate. She passed on a primary against Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) this year, but she would  have a good shot against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) in 2024 . Or she could go for an even higher office, for which she polled at 6 percent in that YouGov poll. She  doesn’t seem to be taking the kind of steps  that others on this list are, but she would have a built-in base, and the progressive lane will be significantly more open this time, since Sanders has  said he’s very likely out . (Previous ranking: 10)


9. Gavin Newsom : Some California political watchers have noticed the governor seeming to  weigh in more often in recent national political debates . “It’s painfully obvious Newsom wants to run for president one day,” SFGate’s Eric Ting wrote this week. Exactly how that would go down is less obvious. Newsom notched a big victory in a much-watched recall vote last year, but how he’d wear on voters outside the Golden State is a big question. Newsom practically exudes “West Coast liberal,” even as he’s probably  a bit more moderate  than some people realize. (Previous ranking: 7)



8. Cory Booker : The senator from New Jersey was  one of the most prominent faces  of the Democrats’ effort to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, delivering  some heartfelt lines  about the momentousness of the occasion. His 2020 campaign came nowhere close to capitalizing on the promise of his early political career, but Booker is just 52 and could still have another act on the national stage. (Previous ranking: 6)

7. Sherrod Brown : The biggest shock of the early 2020 Democratic primary cycle might have been when the senator from Ohio  unexpectedly passed on running . That was in part because he decided he wasn’t as invested in running as other Democrats were, and it’s possible that won’t have changed in 2024. But with Sanders out, there could be more of a space for his populist style of politics. And you can bet that plenty of establishment Democrats would put Brown very high on their list. One big wrinkle: He’s up for reelection in 2024, and he might not be able to fall back on seeking reelection in red-trending Ohio. (Previous ranking: n/a)


6. Roy Cooper : He might be the one leading contender you hear the least about. That’s partially due to his being a governor, but partially just Cooper’s style. If it’s a just-win-baby type of election, and Democrats want a Biden-style candidate (though not Biden himself), the North Carolinian checks lots of boxes. He’s also, like Brown, a repeat winner in a tough state that Democrats would love to put on the map. (Previous ranking: 5)



5. Amy Klobuchar : The senator from Minnesota would seem to benefit from a Biden-free race, just like some of these others would benefit from a Sanders-free race. But how much? Her high-water mark in 2020 was 20 percent in New Hampshire, and she underperformed in Iowa long before Biden really kicked things into gear. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Elizabeth Warren : Sanders’s camp has suggested Biden  will face a progressive challenger in 2024 . But exactly who would that wing of the party line up behind? Politico reported recently that top Sanders aides have gotten involved in setting up the field for 2024 — but by  pushing for Khanna to run  rather than by building up Warren. Sanders and Warren have often been allies in the Senate, but their 2020 presidential campaigns  got pretty ugly with one another . The senator from Massachusetts also has a reelection bid in 2024, which she has said she’ll pursue. (Previous ranking: 3)


3. Harris : We’re dropping Harris down a slot this time. Being vice president is certainly a good launchpad, but it’s not at all clear Harris has put it to good use. Her numbers are similar to Biden’s, and she’s done little to change the perceptions that harmed her 2020 campaign, including on her ability to drive a message. There’s also no way she would run against Biden if he does run (while others might have seen wiggle room on that). On the plus side, Biden has committed to her being his running mate again. (Previous ranking: 1)



2. Pete Buttigieg : The transportation secretary moves ahead of Harris, but not with any great conviction on our part. He ran a good campaign in 2020 — we’ll repeat that he was  very close to winning the first two contests  — and would enter 2024 with more heft as a Cabinet secretary. Mostly, we’d expect a Biden-less race to be one of the most wide-open contests in recent memory. To the extent people don’t want Biden or Harris, he’s next in line just in terms of sheer plausibility. (Previous ranking: 2)



1. Biden : Having said all of the above, things are often darkest for a president in a midterm election year. And Biden has both a pandemic and inflation to contend with. If those factors wane in the coming months, and after the 2022 midterms? The picture might be significantly different. If Republicans win some control of Congress, as appears likely, it could even help Biden politically, because he’ll have something to run against (even apart from Donald Trump). But mostly, we just wonder whether we’ll see him try to become the  first-ever octogenarian presidential nominee .







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Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1  seeder  Vic Eldred    one month ago

Direct from the Washington Post: Democrats are thinking about who to nominate in 2024.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Vic Eldred @1    one month ago

Wow.  When previously I wondered who it could be, I thought Pete Buttigieg was about the only Democrat who might have a chance and I think I even posted that on an article a while ago.  If it were to be a Republican my preference would be Liz Cheney but I bet her party would never run her.  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1.1    one month ago
When previously I wondered who it could be, I thought Pete Buttigieg was about the only Democrat who might have a chance and I think I even posted that on an article a while ago.

I think it will be anybody but Biden or Harris 


  If it were to be a Republican my preference would be Liz Cheney but I bet her party would never run her.  

Are you sure you know the policies she favors?

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.1.2  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.1    one month ago

Actually no.  I only know the principles she has. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.3  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @1.1.2    one month ago

Lol.....Buzz, you took all that time to come up with that one?

You're getting rusty!

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
1.1.4  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.3    one month ago

LOL   I only took 11 minutes because I was somewhere else.  Did you think I was sitting here waiting for your reply to me?

But you're right, I AM getting rusty.  When you get to be my age your joints are going to need to be oiled too.

 
 
 
bbl-1
Professor Quiet
2  bbl-1    one month ago

Direct from Sputnik:  The republicans are inquiring of the procedures for political asylum.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1  Texan1211  replied to  bbl-1 @2    one month ago

sounds like you have a direct line to Russia.

hmmm...  .

 
 
 
Steve Ott
Professor Quiet
3  Steve Ott    one month ago

And?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Steve Ott @3    one month ago

You figure the rest out.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Masters Principal
4  Just Jim NC TttH    one month ago

Tulsi Gabbard not on the list? Surprised. Even I as a conservative like her and the way she thinks and speaks. Could be the old wolf in sheep's clothing but we may not get the chance to see this time around.

As for the GOP, Nikki isn't out.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
4.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4    one month ago

We may get to vote for Tulsi in one of our primaries. I think she's fed up with the democrats.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Masters Principal
4.1.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1    one month ago

Seems very MUCH like that is the case.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4.1.2  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1    one month ago

She's a DINO.  I was fed up with her a long time ago.  

 
 
 
Hallux
Sophomore Principal
4.2  Hallux  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4    one month ago
Nikki isn't out.

Nikki is busy figuring out what is in.

 
 
 
Hallux
Sophomore Principal
5  Hallux    one month ago

Same article I read 3 days ago and it's still useless.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Hallux @5    one month ago

You seldom comment on the substance of any article.

 
 

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