Analysis: The US economy shrank and that's disastrous for Democrats' 2022 chances | CNN Politics
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The news that the US economy unexpectedly shrank over the first quarter of the year is an absolute body blow to Democrats already reeling amid growing economic concerns ahead of the 2022 midterm election.
The country's gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% between January and March - a stunning reversal from the 6.9% GDP growth that the US recorded in the final quarter of 2021. (The GDP is seen as a broad guide to the overall health of a nation's economy.)
And in a decidedly ill omen, the GDP shrinkage was the worst performance of the measure since the economy went into recession amid the shutting down of the country in the spring of 2020.
Addressing recession fears on Thursday, President Joe Biden said: "Well, I'm not concerned about recession. I mean, you're always concerned about recession, but the GDP, you know, fell to 1.4%."
The GDP news comes on the heels of newly released polling data from Gallup that suggested that economy confidence is extremely low among the American public.
More than four in ten (42%) of Americans said that economic conditions in America were "poor," while another 38% said that they were only "fair" in Gallup's April survey. Just 2% said economic conditions were "excellent," while 18% said they were "good.")
More than three in four - 76% - of Americans said that the economy was getting worse, compared to 20% who said it was improving.
And Gallup's Economic Confidence Index, which measures respondents' feelings about the economy from +100 (very high) to -100 (very low), is currently at -39. (It was at -6 in July 2021.)
The economy - as you might expect from those desultory numbers - is a top-of-mind issue for many Americans. Around four in 10 Americans told Gallup that economic issues were the biggest problem facing the country, with inflation topping that list. (The Consumer Price Index hit 8.5% in March, the highest that number has been in 40 years.)
Add all of those factors up, and you get an absolutely toxic political environment facing Biden and Democrats as they prepare to defend their House and Senate majorities in November.
"It's the worst political environment that I've lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant," Biden pollster John Anzalone said recently. He's right.
Midterm elections in a president's first term are routinely bad for their party in Congress. But that trend is made far worse when the president is unpopular, as Biden is now. (In Gallup's first quarter polling, Biden's job approval rating sat at just 41%.)
There are two factors that complicate any attempts by Biden to turn the economy - and as importantly, voters' perceptions about it - around:
1) Despite being the most powerful position in the country, a president has limited ability to stimulate a struggling economy. Biden's Build Back Better legislative agenda appears dead in the water. Plus, Biden is already in a very bad place with voters on the economy; just 33% of Americans approved of how he is handling it in a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week.
2) There are only 194 days between today and the November 2022 election. In political terms, that is a very short window to turn around peoples' perception of the economy - particularly if inflation (and gas prices) remain anything close to their current levels.
If things stay roughly where they are today - in terms of economic measures like GDP and CPI and Americans' perceptions of the state of the economy - Democrats will experience a cataclysm at the ballot box this fall. The question won't be whether they hold their paper-thin majorities in the House and Senate, but rather how big the electoral hole will be that they have to try to dig out from over the coming decade.
This story has been updated with new comments from Biden.
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Joe isn't really concerned.
Remember this comes from the same man who insisted to us all that inflation was merely temporary and nothing to be concerned about.
I wonder how the WH will spin this report?
Putin and Trump got together and had a baby... it's their fault. /s
What....what.....economy is doing great, just ask peppermint patty psaki.
I am not even sure the majority of Democrats are happy with Biden's economy. They don't act like they think it is all good.
The Democrats will reap the rewards they deserve at the ballot box in November.
At this point I'm not sure what the Democrats could do to save themselves from November. The window is almost closed on getting any legislation passed and with the current makeup in the Senate the odds of passing any big partisan bill is slim at best. Biden could "forgive" a large chunk of student debt, that would make the younger voters happy but not sure how badly that would piss off the other voters who don't have those student loan debts and now are forced to pay off someone else's debt thru taxes.
Unless something truly amazing happens, I think the November election is going to be even more lopsided than anybody could have thought.
oooo, just had a thought on how the Democrats can save themselves this November. All they need to do is find religion and then pray for the Rapture... enough voters get taken and maybe the voting will turn out differently...
Or alien invasion? (that's little green men from outer space invasion)
They could try and cram through their voter rights law again. The changes every states redistricting laws to that of Cali, Penn, and Mich. Where the number of registered voters in a district doesn't matter; but the number of people does.
Then with their real invasion of illegal aliens properly placed in Democrat bastions of stupidity; they could redraw voting maps that would heavily favor them in all future elections.
I am really hoping that some of the posters always touting the Biden economy will come to explain how good all these numbers really are and how voters are just too unsophisticated enough to understand economics.
Is it so disastrous for us Dems? I mean people with sense know that this is not the fault of President Biden.
Yes, as history shows us time after time.
People with sense recognize that the person in charge gets the blame when the economy sucks.
Voters tend to vote their wallets.
The same people with sense that knew the recession wasn't the fault of Bush Jr; but blamed him anyways?
The same people that denied that Obama oversaw the slowest recovery from a recession in US history?
The same people that are now trying to blame Trump for this toxic economy and inflation; even thought he has been out of office for well over a year?
You mean those people that don't understand how the economy works; yet are the first to deny that the actions of Democrats affect it just as much as the actions of Republicans?
We know all about those people already. Which is the reason the Democrats are going to suffer historical losses at midterms.
Nice comment, it is now the new leader for obtuse comment of the week.
this is not the fault of President Biden.
You won’t see a campaign slogan like we saw in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid”.
Bad stuff is never the fault of a democrat president, it’s always the fault of a republican president .... or so I’ve been told here.
Going to be kind of hard for Biden to convince thinking people that the economy is so great with numbers like these.
Also, Democrats trying to get student loan debt forgiven when the Biden economy is doing so great seems hypocritical to me.
Dems want to hang even more debt on future generations. If young folks aren’t leaving the Democrat party in droves, they deserve what they get.