Republicans' Worst-Case Scenario for the Midterms
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
PoliticsGOPMidtermsDemocratsHouse of Representatives
The Republicans are heading into November's midterms with high hopes they will manage to flip enough seats in the House and the Senate to regain control of both chambers.
Historically, the party in the White House almost always sees losses in the midterm elections, especially the first one they encounter.
In 2002, George W. Bush managed to buck the trend after the GOP gained seats in both the House and Senate, but this arrived after the Republican president was seeing approval ratings as high as 90 percent in Gallup polling in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, before falling to the late 60s by the time the midterms arrived.
In comparison, President Joe Biden is heading into his first midterm elections with his average approval ratings at a historic low of 38.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Republicans are expected to do well in the November midterms but several worst-case scenarios could cause key losses. Above, supporters display signs during a Save America Rally with former President Donald Trump at the Adams County Fairgrounds in Mendon, Illinois on June 25, 2022.Getty
With signs pointing to the GOP dominating the midterms, it is easy to suggest that the worst case for the party would be that they fail to regain control of both chambers. However, a number of experts have suggested that there are several other factors at play that could hinder what would be considered successful midterms, including the overturning of Roe v. Wade , and the looming presence of Donald Trump amid the January 6 hearings.
"The worst-case scenario for Republicans would be for Democrats to successfully convey the truly extreme nature of the Republican agenda on abortion rights and gun safety," David Niven, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati, told Newsweek.
The party may also suffer from having a "surplus of untested candidates"—such as former NFL star Herschel Walker in Georgia, celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and author J.D. Vance in Ohio—all of whom are endorsed by Trump but have never won a general election.
"In the Republican worst-case scenario, Democrats eke out a win in the House, expand their senate majority, and reclaim wayward governor's offices in states like Maryland and Massachusetts," Niven added.
Sean Freeder, an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Florida, suggested that the worst-case scenario for the GOP in November would be if turnout on the left is high due to "anger about Supreme Court rulings, and independents react poorly to Trump-backed Republican candidates across the country."
Freeder said another poor outcome for the Republicans would be if they manage to gain control of the House, but only by a very narrow margin, which would "exacerbate internal party politics for the Republican speaker" in the coming session.
In terms of the Senate, Freeder predicted a realistic worst-case scenario where the Dems hold a number of key seats in states such as Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, with Republican Wisconsin Senator Johnson losing his seat and John Fetterman beating Oz in the Pennsylvania race, giving the Democrats a 52-48 advantage in the upper chamber.
"Furthermore, they see key gubernatorial losses in states like Arizona and Georgia," Freeder told Newsweek . "Losses by governors in Texas [Greg Abbott] and Florida [Ron DeSantis] are very unlikely, but one or both of those would truly be rock bottom for Republicans. The result would still be congressional gridlock, but Republicans would be unable to present a unified Congress against Biden."
Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics, believes that the worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms could even occur within the next few weeks.
It has been reported that Trump is preparing to finally confirm his intentions to run for president in 2024 in an apparent attempt to deflect attention away from the damning January 6 hearings and to take the limelight from DeSantis' rising credentials for the Republican Party nomination.
Gift told Newsweek that Trump announcing his 2024 race early is perhaps the worst-case scenario for Republicans, given the chaos that usually surrounds the former president.
"The GOP wants smooth sailing heading into November's midterms, that's best achieved by avoiding scandals, and hammering one issue—inflation—over and over and over," Gift said. "Anything that distracts from that core message threatens to blow Republicans off course. And nothing screams distraction quite like a Trump media circus."
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The gop is dying...
Then why are Democrats worried about the midterms and abortion when they can just codify it into federal law with all their large majority since the GOP is dying?
Before anyone can answer that, you need to define the word "LARGE". Since an even split in the Senate is hardly the textbook definition of "LARGE".
As much as they are crying over everything, they can't guarantee a win with their "large majority". Look what happened to the Biden Bullshit Bill.
Answer: They have a record that will be the only factor in November.
No boogeymen to use.
The gop has no one to blame for losing now...
You don't know how bad a beating democrats are going to get. It will be like going a round with Jake LaMotta! You must have heard of him.
I'll be here the day after. We can talk then.
the past actions of seditionists and thumpers have hobbled the GQP and I'll wait for the final tally after the election.
That is what you said in 2020. Biden is not on the midterm ballot and the gop is nominating a slate of unelectable candidates! Save your victory lap until after the election this time...
The generic ballot is pretty much even now!
Just remember the two G's:
GASOLINE & GROCERIES
I've heard of wishful thinking, but I believe you may be engaging in isolated, immune thinking.
While Biden is not on the ballot, those radical policies he forced on the country happen to be the staple of the democratic party. Once the left took over the party, this had to happen. Every election taking place should have given you a clue. The country hates these policies.
pffft, anybody ignorant enough to believe that gas and grocery prices are set by the POTUS aren't smart enough to vote for anyone other than republicans.
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Sugar Ray did it to him and the 6th fight was called the ''St. Valentines Day Massacre'' when he KO'd LaMotta in the 13th round. Sugar Ray won 5 of the 6 fights they had.
“Just remember the two G's:”
Graft and gall.
On election night, I'll have a live thread going. You 3 are already invited.
What does that have to do with my comment? I pointed out that LaMotta got his ass kicked 5 of 6 times by Robinson. That is a fact like it or not.
You are the one that brought LaMotta up in the first place.
Your comment is racially charged and flagged as such.
What's the matter? No Native American middleweight champs?
What policies?
Don't forget that republicans put the "I" in politics.
Insurrection
and
Ignorance
WTF are you talking about there is nothing racial in my comment.
Now you're the one getting racial, but here is a boxing history lesson for you. A NA fought to a draw for the middleweight championship but at the same time held the featherweight, lightweight and welterweight championships.
The ones everyone in this country is facing. The radical spending spree that caused inflation. The war on oil that caused runaway gas prices. The effort to change the voters & the demographics of the US, which led to the opening of the southern border and let's not forget the attempt at indoctrinating our children and the US military.
It's hard to see it if you believe in that rotten ideology.
So exactly what policies? You said it was policy, what policy did Biden enact?
There was no reason to mention La Motta's record other that to try and diminish it.
Be a man and admit that is what you did. We can all see it.
No, we can all see you making shit up out of thin air.
If you still can't see it, the last sentence applies.
You are going to see this November how many people agree with me. Remember: Election night, I'm making a live show of it. Don't let us down. We want you there.
So in other words, there is no policy Biden enacted that you can point to....
I will be on JBB's seed, not yours.
I pointed out a fact, something that you don't seem to be able to deal with.
You certainly aren't anyone to tell me or anyone to be a man, do you actually know the meaning of it?
I just put 4 of them [deleted]
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There was no need for the fact except for the reason I said.
I know it, you know it and everyone else here knows it.
Again, what was enacted? Not just some talking points. What policy was enacted?
Seems you can't point to any so I will take your talking points as just that.
BTW, You are to call me Vic
Afraid of you? Hardly.
When did he call you something else?
You mean policies must be enacted into law?
Ender you can do better. You must do better, for our readers.
Everyone here? Nope, only you.
And the truth.
Meaning again, you have nothing...
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You are the very last source anyone would ever consult to hear the truth.
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Which is BS, but imagine what you want since facts seem to be a bridge too far.
So now you're a mind reader, the Great Karnac is among us.
Did I call you something other than Vic? Nope, I didn't but if you want to dispute facts then of course, denier or factless would possibly apply.
“Afraid?”
Of you? Afrayedknot.
Of what you espouse? Afraid so.
Ya!
Plus the lying hypocrites including Token Thomas on the Supreme Court have done their best to ensure many Democrat victories!!!
"pffft, anybody ignorant enough to believe that gas and grocery prices are set by the POTUS aren't smart enough to vote for anyone other than republicans."
Ya!
The GOP only has to turn 4-5 seats in the House and 2-3 seats in the Senate to gain control. Easily doable, considering the piss poor performance of Biden and his motley crew. In reality, the majorities are likely to be much higher. The rigged Jan 6 witch hunt will have little effect on the midterms.
They think everyone thinks like them. This time they have a record to defend
the public will probably forget by then, with all the televised perp walks trumpsters will be doing...
Egg zactly!
Your turn America - this November!
I'm not surprised someone quotes such a hateful selfish bitch like Rand above. A libertarian who took advantage of those things she would deny to all others.