Republicans' Worst-Case Scenario for the Midterms

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  4 weeks ago  •  62 comments

By:   Ewan Palmer (Newsweek)

Republicans' Worst-Case Scenario for the Midterms
The Republican Party is predicted to regain both chambers in the November midterms, but several factors could alter the outcome.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



PoliticsGOPMidtermsDemocratsHouse of Representatives

The Republicans are heading into November's midterms with high hopes they will manage to flip enough seats in the House and the Senate to regain control of both chambers.

Historically, the party in the White House almost always sees losses in the midterm elections, especially the first one they encounter.

In 2002, George W. Bush managed to buck the trend after the GOP gained seats in both the House and Senate, but this arrived after the Republican president was seeing approval ratings as high as 90 percent in Gallup polling in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, before falling to the late 60s by the time the midterms arrived.

In comparison, President Joe Biden is heading into his first midterm elections with his average approval ratings at a historic low of 38.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

republicans-midterms.jpg?w=790&f=754fbbb6f52b37aace6729764f9f5fe6 Republicans are expected to do well in the November midterms but several worst-case scenarios could cause key losses. Above, supporters display signs during a Save America Rally with former President Donald Trump at the Adams County Fairgrounds in Mendon, Illinois on June 25, 2022.Getty

With signs pointing to the GOP dominating the midterms, it is easy to suggest that the worst case for the party would be that they fail to regain control of both chambers. However, a number of experts have suggested that there are several other factors at play that could hinder what would be considered successful midterms, including the overturning of Roe v. Wade , and the looming presence of Donald Trump amid the January 6 hearings.

"The worst-case scenario for Republicans would be for Democrats to successfully convey the truly extreme nature of the Republican agenda on abortion rights and gun safety," David Niven, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati, told Newsweek.

The party may also suffer from having a "surplus of untested candidates"—such as former NFL star Herschel Walker in Georgia, celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and author J.D. Vance in Ohio—all of whom are endorsed by Trump but have never won a general election.

"In the Republican worst-case scenario, Democrats eke out a win in the House, expand their senate majority, and reclaim wayward governor's offices in states like Maryland and Massachusetts," Niven added.

Sean Freeder, an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Florida, suggested that the worst-case scenario for the GOP in November would be if turnout on the left is high due to "anger about Supreme Court rulings, and independents react poorly to Trump-backed Republican candidates across the country."

Freeder said another poor outcome for the Republicans would be if they manage to gain control of the House, but only by a very narrow margin, which would "exacerbate internal party politics for the Republican speaker" in the coming session.

In terms of the Senate, Freeder predicted a realistic worst-case scenario where the Dems hold a number of key seats in states such as Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, with Republican Wisconsin Senator Johnson losing his seat and John Fetterman beating Oz in the Pennsylvania race, giving the Democrats a 52-48 advantage in the upper chamber.

"Furthermore, they see key gubernatorial losses in states like Arizona and Georgia," Freeder told Newsweek . "Losses by governors in Texas [Greg Abbott] and Florida [Ron DeSantis] are very unlikely, but one or both of those would truly be rock bottom for Republicans. The result would still be congressional gridlock, but Republicans would be unable to present a unified Congress against Biden."

Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics, believes that the worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms could even occur within the next few weeks.

It has been reported that Trump is preparing to finally confirm his intentions to run for president in 2024 in an apparent attempt to deflect attention away from the damning January 6 hearings and to take the limelight from DeSantis' rising credentials for the Republican Party nomination.

Gift told Newsweek that Trump announcing his 2024 race early is perhaps the worst-case scenario for Republicans, given the chaos that usually surrounds the former president.

"The GOP wants smooth sailing heading into November's midterms, that's best achieved by avoiding scandals, and hammering one issue—inflation—over and over and over," Gift said. "Anything that distracts from that core message threatens to blow Republicans off course. And nothing screams distraction quite like a Trump media circus."


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JBB
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JBB    4 weeks ago

The gop is dying...original

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
1.1  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @1    4 weeks ago

Then why are Democrats worried about the midterms and abortion when they can just codify it into federal law with all their large majority since the GOP is dying?

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.1  Ozzwald  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1    4 weeks ago
with all their large majority

Before anyone can answer that, you need to define the word "LARGE".  Since an even split in the Senate is hardly the textbook definition of "LARGE".

since the GOP is dying?

1477947589-trumpmichigan.jpg

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
PhD Guide
1.1.2  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1    4 weeks ago

As much as they are crying over everything, they can't guarantee a win with their "large majority".  Look what happened to the Biden Bullshit Bill. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.3  Vic Eldred  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1    4 weeks ago

Answer:  They have a record that will be the only factor in November.

No boogeymen to use.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.1.4  seeder  JBB  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.3    4 weeks ago

The gop has no one to blame for losing now...

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.5  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @1.1.4    4 weeks ago

You don't know how bad a beating democrats are going to get. It will be like going a round with Jake LaMotta!  You must have heard of him.

I'll be here the day after. We can talk then.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.6  devangelical  replied to  JBB @1.1.4    4 weeks ago

the past actions of seditionists and thumpers have hobbled the GQP and I'll wait for the final tally after the election.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
1.1.7  seeder  JBB  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.5    4 weeks ago

That is what you said in 2020. Biden is not on the midterm ballot and the gop is nominating a slate of unelectable candidates! Save your victory lap until after the election this time...

The generic ballot is pretty much even now!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.8  Vic Eldred  replied to  devangelical @1.1.6    4 weeks ago

Just remember the two G's:

GASOLINE & GROCERIES

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.9  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @1.1.7    4 weeks ago

I've heard of wishful thinking, but I believe you may be engaging in isolated, immune thinking.

While Biden is not on the ballot, those radical policies he forced on the country happen to be the staple of the democratic party. Once the left took over the party, this had to happen. Every election taking place should have given you a clue. The country hates these policies.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.10  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.8    4 weeks ago

pffft, anybody ignorant enough to believe that gas and grocery prices are set by the POTUS aren't smart enough to vote for anyone other than republicans.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.11  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.5    4 weeks ago
It will be like going a round with Jake LaMotta!  You must have heard of him.

[deleted]

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.12  Kavika   replied to  devangelical @1.1.11    4 weeks ago
him going toe to toe with an ali or tyson would have quickly rendered him into the world's biggest italian sausage.

Sugar Ray did it to him and the 6th fight was called the ''St. Valentines Day Massacre'' when he KO'd LaMotta in the 13th round. Sugar Ray won 5 of the 6 fights they had.

 
 
 
afrayedknot
Freshman Quiet
1.1.13  afrayedknot  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.8    4 weeks ago

“Just remember the two G's:”

Graft and gall. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.14  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @1.1.12    4 weeks ago

On election night, I'll have a live thread going. You 3 are already invited.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.15  Kavika   replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.14    4 weeks ago
On election night, I'll have a live thread going. You 3 are already invited.

What does that have to do with my comment? I pointed out that LaMotta got his ass kicked 5 of 6 times by Robinson. That is a fact like it or not.

You are the one that brought LaMotta up in the first place.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.16  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @1.1.15    4 weeks ago

Your comment is racially charged and flagged as such.

What's the matter? No Native American middleweight champs?

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.17  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.9    4 weeks ago
those radical policies he forced on the country

What policies?

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.18  Ozzwald  replied to  afrayedknot @1.1.13    4 weeks ago
“Just remember the two G's:” Graft and gall. 

Don't forget that republicans put the "I" in politics.

Insurrection 

and

Ignorance

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.19  Kavika   replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.16    4 weeks ago
Your comment is racially charged and flagged as such.

WTF are you talking about there is nothing racial in my comment. 

What's the matter? No Native American middleweight champs?

Now you're the one getting racial, but here is a boxing history lesson for you. A NA fought to a draw for the middleweight championship but at the same time held the featherweight, lightweight and welterweight championships. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.20  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.17    4 weeks ago
What policies?

The ones everyone in this country is facing. The radical spending spree that caused inflation. The war on oil that caused runaway gas prices. The effort to change the voters & the demographics of the US, which led to the opening of the southern border and let's not forget the attempt at indoctrinating our children and the US military.

It's hard to see it if you believe in that rotten ideology.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.21  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.20    4 weeks ago

So exactly what policies? You said it was policy, what policy did Biden enact?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.22  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @1.1.19    4 weeks ago

There was no reason to mention La Motta's record other that to try and diminish it.

Be a man and admit that is what you did. We can all see it.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.23  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.22    4 weeks ago

No, we can all see you making shit up out of thin air.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.24  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.21    4 weeks ago

If you still can't see it, the last sentence applies.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.25  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.23    4 weeks ago
No, we can all see you making shit up out of thin air.

You are going to see this November how many people agree with me. Remember: Election night, I'm making a live show of it. Don't let us down. We want you there.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.26  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.24    4 weeks ago

So in other words, there is no policy Biden enacted that you can point to....

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.27  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.25    4 weeks ago

I will be on JBB's seed, not yours.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.28  Kavika   replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.22    4 weeks ago
There was no reason to mention La Motta's record other that to try and diminish it.Be a man and admit that is what you did. We can all see it.

I pointed out a fact, something that you don't seem to be able to deal with. 

You certainly aren't anyone to tell me or anyone to be a man, do you actually know the meaning of it?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.29  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.26    4 weeks ago

I just put 4 of them [deleted]

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.30  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.27    4 weeks ago
I will be on JBB's seed, not yours.

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.31  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @1.1.28    4 weeks ago

There was no need for the fact except for the reason I said.

I know it, you know it and everyone else here knows it.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.32  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.29    4 weeks ago

Again, what was enacted? Not just some talking points. What policy was enacted?

Seems you can't point to any so I will take your talking points as just that.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.33  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @1.1.28    4 weeks ago
You certainly aren't anyone to tell me or anyone to be a man

BTW, You are to call me Vic

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.34  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.30    4 weeks ago

Afraid of you? Hardly.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.35  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.33    4 weeks ago

When did he call you something else?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.36  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.32    4 weeks ago
Again, what was enacted?

You mean policies must be enacted into law?

Ender you can do better. You must do better, for our readers.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.37  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.31    4 weeks ago
I know it, you know it and everyone else here knows it.

Everyone here? Nope, only you.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.38  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ender @1.1.34    4 weeks ago
Afraid of you? Hardly.

And the truth.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.39  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.36    4 weeks ago

Meaning again, you have nothing...

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.40  Ender  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.38    4 weeks ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Gsquared
Senior Expert
1.1.42  Gsquared  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.38    4 weeks ago

You are the very last source anyone would ever consult to hear the truth.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
1.1.43  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.14    4 weeks ago
On election night, I'll have a live thread going. You 3 are already invited.

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.44  Kavika   replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.31    4 weeks ago
There was no need for the fact except for the reason I said.

Which is BS, but imagine what you want since facts seem to be a bridge too far. 

I know it, you know it and everyone else here knows it.

So now you're a mind reader, the Great Karnac is among us.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
1.1.45  Kavika   replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.33    4 weeks ago
BTW, You are to call me Vic

Did I call you something other than Vic? Nope, I didn't but if you want to dispute facts then of course, denier or factless would possibly apply.

 
 
 
afrayedknot
Freshman Quiet
1.1.46  afrayedknot  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.30    4 weeks ago

“Afraid?”

Of you? Afrayedknot.

Of what you espouse? Afraid so. 

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.47  Tessylo  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.42    4 weeks ago
"You are the very last source anyone would ever consult to hear the truth."

jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif

jrSmiley_81_smiley_image.gif

jrSmiley_93_smiley_image.jpg

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.48  Tessylo  replied to  devangelical @1.1.6    4 weeks ago
"the past actions of seditionists and thumpers have hobbled the GQP and I'll wait for the final tally after the election."

Ya!

292941666_10227751532475281_60158321428343770_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p180x540&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=SCOTtZvrF7YAX_JInDP&_nc_oc=AQmPzk3YAwTFFCE_3xmAYmQN3PL_VRF0WJMz-VMu8bX2kgNn95O84InJFvMDIFugiuM&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=00_AT8iNiAK7B_rNbrZ0RMsa5kD9Kr7a2r32PbYvVgI9WJg_Q&oe=62D2A90E

Plus the lying hypocrites including Token Thomas on the Supreme Court have done their best to ensure many Democrat victories!!!

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.49  Tessylo  replied to  devangelical @1.1.10    4 weeks ago

"pffft, anybody ignorant enough to believe that gas and grocery prices are set by the POTUS aren't smart enough to vote for anyone other than republicans."

Ya!

292081370_5613567792006957_1165206287631400931_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=kDO-QWBn95cAX9eP-j_&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=00_AT_DPX-20VVslO2HAu0aP4KIqWzsO89wc5H9KTuNJMXDCw&oe=62D46AA8

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.50  Tessylo  replied to  Ender @1.1.27    4 weeks ago
"I will be on JBB's seed, not yours."
jrSmiley_81_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_93_smiley_image.jpg
Same here.
Why go to such a hateful place?

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
2  Greg Jones    4 weeks ago

The GOP only has to turn 4-5 seats in the House and 2-3 seats in the Senate to gain control. Easily doable, considering the piss poor performance of Biden and his motley crew. In reality, the majorities are likely to be much higher. The rigged Jan 6 witch hunt will have little effect on the midterms.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
2.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  Greg Jones @2    4 weeks ago

They think everyone thinks like them. This time they have a record to defend

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.1.1  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1    4 weeks ago

the public will probably forget by then, with all the televised perp walks trumpsters will be doing...

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
2.1.2  Greg Jones  replied to  devangelical @2.1.1    4 weeks ago

Egg zactly!

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3  JohnRussell    4 weeks ago

800

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @3    4 weeks ago

FXZ9_5BUsAAr17h?format=jpg&name=small

Your turn America - this November!

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.1    4 weeks ago

original

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @3.1.1    4 weeks ago

FXLUKfsVUAAlmRL?format=jpg&name=small

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
3.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.1.2    4 weeks ago

292941666_10227751532475281_60158321428343770_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p180x540&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=SCOTtZvrF7YAX_JInDP&_nc_oc=AQmPzk3YAwTFFCE_3xmAYmQN3PL_VRF0WJMz-VMu8bX2kgNn95O84InJFvMDIFugiuM&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=00_AT8iNiAK7B_rNbrZ0RMsa5kD9Kr7a2r32PbYvVgI9WJg_Q&oe=62D2A90E

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4  Tessylo    4 weeks ago

I'm not surprised someone quotes such a hateful selfish bitch like Rand above.  A libertarian who took advantage of those things she would deny to all others.  

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5  Tessylo    4 weeks ago

292057830_10224562277718536_8527484227006248260_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p180x540&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=e3f864&_nc_ohc=NodTTThoTLcAX9VJbji&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=00_AT_WpsTjlPQpgqrudq_IJQSrpUr-9bvRkB6pzAZ84pIqGg&oe=62D2BD91

 
 

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