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The Midterm Watch / Part 3 : The House of Representatives

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By: vic-eldred • 2 years ago • 15 comments

The Midterm Watch / Part 3 : The House of Representatives

"I’m wishing the election were in August," Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the liberal group Third Way, told Politico. "I think we peaked a little early." A progressive ad maker who worked on Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign said it was clear Republicans had "seized the upper hand."

Link to Quote: https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/2022-midterm-election-updates-while-democrats-gop-fight-to-win-house-of-representatives-senate

We are 17 days to the midterm elections. Crime is emerging as a major issue. People are worried about prices and heating their homes and rampant crime. Those are the issues of survival. The polls are begining to catch up with reality. Republicans are now up by 6 points. In the House races the seats of all 435 representatives will be up for election. The 2022 election will be the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. That means Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon have all gained seats. Dishonest California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia lost seats.

Only about 37 of the 435 House races are competitive, the others currently seem less so.

The most competitive races:

District	Incumbent	Party	Since	Term	Predictions		Margin of Victory
District	Incumbent	Party	Since	Term	Consensus	Map	House^(a)	President^(b)
AK-AL	Mary Peltola		2022	1st			9.1%	10.1%
AK-AL	Mary Peltola* Nick Begich Sarah Palin
AZ-1	David Schweikert		2011	6th			N/A	1.5%
AZ-1	Jevin Hodge David Schweikert*
AZ-2	Tom O'Halleran		2017	3rd			N/A	8.4%
AZ-2	Tom O'Halleran* Eli Crane
AZ-6	Ann Kirkpatrick		2019	2nd			N/A	0.3%
AZ-6	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Kirsten Engel Juan Ciscomani
CA-13	OPEN						N/A	11.4%
CA-13	Adam Gray John Duarte
CA-22	David Valadao		2021	1st			N/A	13.1%
CA-22	Rudy Salas David Valadao*
CA-27	Mike Garcia		2020	2nd			N/A	12.7%
CA-27	Christy Smith Mike Garcia*
CA-45	Michelle Steel		2021	1st			N/A	6.3%
CA-45	Jay Chen Michelle Steel*
CA-47	Katie Porter		2019	2nd			N/A	11.9%
CA-47	Katie Porter* Scott Baugh
CA-49	Mike Levin		2019	2nd			N/A	11.3%
CA-49	Mike Levin* Brian Maryott
CO-8	OPEN						N/A	4.7%
CO-8	Yadira Caraveo Barbara Kirkmeyer
CT-5	Jahana Hayes		2019	2nd			N/A	10.9%
CT-5	Jahana Hayes* George Logan
FL-7	Stephanie Murphy		2017	3rd			N/A	5.4%
FL-7	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Karen Green Cory Mills
IA-3	Cindy Axne		2019	2nd			N/A	0.4%
IA-3	Cindy Axne* Zach Nunn
IL-13	OPEN						N/A	11.3%
IL-13	Nikki Budzinsksi Regan Deering
IL-17	Cheri Bustos		2013	5th			N/A	7.8%
IL-17	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Eric Sorensen Esther King
IN-1	Frank Mrvan		2021	1st			N/A	8.5%
IN-1	Frank Mrvan* Jennifer-Ruth Green
KS-3	Sharice Davids		2019	2nd			N/A	4.5%
KS-3	Sharice Davids* Amanda Adkins
MD-6	David Trone		2019	2nd			N/A	10.0%
MD-6	David Trone* Neil Parrott
ME-2	Jared Golden		2019	2nd			N/A	6.1%
ME-2	Jared Golden* Bruce Poliquin
MI-3	Peter Meijer		2021	1st			N/A	8.6%
MI-3	Incumbent defeated in Republican primary for 2022 election. Hillary Scholten John Gibbs
MI-7	Elissa Slotkin		2019	2nd			N/A	0.9%
MI-7	Elissa Slotkin* Tom Barrett
MI-8	Daniel Kildee		2013	5th			N/A	2.1%
MI-8	Dan Kildee* Paul Junge
MI-10	OPEN						N/A	0.7%
MI-10	Carl Marlinga John James
MN-2	Angela Craig		2019	2nd			N/A	7.4%
MN-2	Angie Craig* Tyler Kistner
MT-1	OPEN						N/A	7.1%
MT-1	Monica Tranel Ryan Zinke
NC-1	G. K. Butterfield		2004	10th			N/A	8.9%
NC-1	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Don Davis Sandy Smith
NC-13	OPEN						N/A	1.8%
NC-13	Wiley Nickel Bo Hines
NE-2	Don Bacon		2017	3rd			N/A	6.4%
NE-2	Tony Vargas Don Bacon*
NH-1	Chris Pappas		2019	2nd			N/A	5.7%
NH-1	Chris Pappas* Karoline Leavitt
NJ-7	Tom Malinowski		2019	2nd			N/A	4.5%
NJ-7	Tom Malinowski* Tom Kean Jr
NM-2	Yvette Herrell		2021	1st			N/A	5.7%
NM-2	Gabriel Vasquez Yvette Herrell*
NV-1	Dina Titus		2013	5th			N/A	8.7%
NV-1	Dina Titus* Mark Robertson
NV-3	Susie Lee		2019	2nd			N/A	6.7%
NV-3	Susie Lee* April Becker
NV-4	Steven Horsford		2019	2nd			N/A	8.3%
NV-4	Steven Horsford* Sam Peters
NY-1	Lee Zeldin		2015	4th			N/A	0.0%
NY-1	Retiring to run for Governor Bridget Fleming Nicholas LaLota
NY-3	Thomas Suozzi		2017	3rd			N/A	8.5%
NY-3	Retiring to run for Governor Robert Zimmerman George Santos
NY-4	Kathleen Rice		2015	4th			N/A	14.8%
NY-4	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Laura Gillen Anthony D'Esposito
NY-17	Sean P. Maloney		2013	5th			N/A	10.1%
NY-17	Sean Patrick Maloney* Michael Lawler
NY-18	Pat Ryan		2022	1st			N/A	8.5%
NY-18	Pat Ryan Colin Schmitt
NY-19	OPEN						N/A	4.7%
NY-19	Josh Riley Marc Molinaro
NY-22	John Katko		2015	4th			N/A	7.6%
NY-22	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Francis Conole Brandon Williams
OH-1	Steve Chabot		2011	6th			N/A	8.6%
OH-1	Greg Landsman Steve Chabot*
OH-9	Marcy Kaptur		1983	20th			N/A	2.8%
OH-9	Marcy Kaptur* JR Majewski
OH-13	Anthony Gonzalez		2019	2nd			N/A	2.8%
OH-13	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Emilia Sykes Madison Gesiotto
OR-4	Peter DeFazio		1987	18th			N/A	12.7%
OR-4	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Val Hoyle Alek Skarlatos
OR-5	Kurt Schrader		2009	7th			N/A	8.8%
OR-5	Incumbent defeated in Democratic primary for 2022 election. Jamie McLeod-Skinner Lori Chavez-DeRemer
OR-6	OPEN						N/A	13.2%
OR-6	Andrea Salinas Mike Erickson
PA-7	Susan Wild		2018	3rd			N/A	0.6%
PA-7	Susan Wild* Lisa Scheller
PA-8	Matt Cartwright		2013	5th			N/A	2.9%
PA-8	Matt Cartwright* Jim Bognet
PA-17	Conor Lamb		2018	3rd			N/A	6.0%
PA-17	Retiring to run for U.S. Senate Chris Deluzio Jeremy Shaffer
RI-2	James Langevin		2001	11th			N/A	12.7%
RI-2	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Seth Magaziner Allan Fung
TN-5	Jim Cooper		2003	10th			N/A	11.8%
TN-5	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Heidi Campbell Andy Ogles
TX-15	OPEN						N/A	2.9%
TX-15	Michelle Vallejo Monica De La Cruz
TX-28	Henry Cuellar		2005	9th			N/A	7.2%
TX-28	Henry Cuellar* Cassy Garcia
TX-34	Mayra Flores \| Vicente Gonzalez						N/A	15.7%
TX-34	Incumbents of both parties redistricted together Vicente Gonzalez* Mayra Flores*
VA-2	Elaine Luria		2019	2nd			N/A	3.1%
VA-2	Elaine Luria* Jen Kiggans
VA-7	Abigail Spanberger		2019	2nd			N/A	6.3%
VA-7	Abigail Spanberger* Yesli Vega
WA-8	Kim Schrier		2019	2nd			N/A	6.9%
WA-8	Kim Schrier* Matt Larkin
WI-3	Ron Kind		1997	13th			N/A	4.8%
WI-3	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Brad Pfaff Derrick Van Orden

^(a) Source: Cook Political Report , 270toWin research. N/A for new district boundaries. In most cases, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the November 3, 2020 general election.

These elections are normally tied to local issues, but this time federal policy has had a major impact on the country. It will really be interesting to see if Nancy Pelosi remains in congress as a minority leader. If she does stay under such circumstances, the new likely Speaker, Kevin McCarthy will be able to exact his revenge for Pelosi's departure from norms on placing minority members on committees.

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Professor Principal

1 author Vic Eldred 2 years ago

It will only be a question of how badly the democrats lose

Freshman Silent

1.1 dennissmith replied to Vic Eldred @1 2 years ago

A real ass kicking is coming and the dems and their supporters are still in full denial.

Professor Principal

1.1.1 author Vic Eldred replied to dennissmith @1.1 2 years ago

I want steel-toed shoes used for the ass kicking!

Professor Principal

2 JohnRussell 2 years ago

299 of the Republicans running for office in November are election deniers.

Professor Principal

2.1 author Vic Eldred replied to JohnRussell @2 2 years ago

It won't work.

It is a referendum on the Biden presidency.

Professor Principal

2.2 Tessylo replied to JohnRussell @2 2 years ago

So they'll have tons of whack jobs to vote for them

Professor Quiet

2.2.1 arkpdx replied to Tessylo @2.2 2 years ago

No I don't think that there will be that many Democrats voting

Professor Participates

2.3 Greg Jones replied to JohnRussell @2 2 years ago

Tough shit. Time to toss the socialist scum onto the scrap heap of history

Professor Quiet

2.4 arkpdx replied to JohnRussell @2 2 years ago

So?

Professor Quiet

3 Jasper2529 2 years ago

These elections are normally tied to local issues, but this time federal policy has had a major impact on the country.

Very true. Americans have finally awakened to what Obama portended 5 days before his 2008 election. He and Biden spent 8 years working to fulfill that warning, and now Biden has 4 years to further it.

Mid-term Republicans are focused on issues that actually impact most Americans' lives: inflation/economy, rampant crime with no repercussions, illegal aliens/open border/illegal drug and human traffiking, education indoctrination.

Mid-term Democrats are focused on abortion, January 6th, and "feelings" (sex, gender, pronouns, imaginary racial issues in schools and the military).

Professor Principal

3.1 author Vic Eldred replied to Jasper2529 @3 2 years ago

Isn't it amazing. They came to power in 2020 and did all the crazy things they learned in college, as if the rest of the country wanted that shit. Remember, my friend, the party begins on November 8th. You are invited.

Professor Quiet

3.1.1 Jasper2529 replied to Vic Eldred @3.1 2 years ago

Remember, Obama warned us about Joe in 2020 ...

On the eve of the 2020 Iowa caucuses, Politico lobbed a grenade in Joe Biden ’s direction. It was a story noting that the former vice president was trying to play the Obama card—even though Barack Obama hadn’t endorsed the man who had served him faithfully for eight years. The money quote was cutting: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to [expletive] things up.”
In an Oct. 11 CNN interview, Mr. Biden again suggested that if there is a problem, it is the failure to appreciate just how great he has been. “Name me a president, in recent history, who’s gotten as much done, as I have, in the first two years,” he said. “Not a joke. You may not like what I got done. But the vast majority of the American people do like what I got done.”
His approval ratings—and the reluctance of Democratic candidates to appear with him in public—say otherwise.

Remember, my friend, the party begins on November 8th. You are invited.

Thanks!

Professor Principal

3.1.2 author Vic Eldred replied to Jasper2529 @3.1.1 2 years ago

The problem for Politico was finding a worthy democratic presidential candidate out of that pathetic lot. Ahh, but then came the pandemic and the media blamed Trump. The DNC primaries eventually came down to Sanders or Biden and Obama & co stepped in and the grand backroom deal was made. The nation is still paying for it.

Professor Quiet

3.2 Jack_TX replied to Jasper2529 @3 2 years ago

Mid-term Democrats are focused on abortion, January 6th, and "feelings" (sex, gender, pronouns, imaginary racial issues in schools and the military).

You go with what won you the last election.

Professor Principal

3.2.1 author Vic Eldred replied to Jack_TX @3.2 2 years ago

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