The Midterm Watch / Part 3 : The House of Representatives

  

Category:  Op/Ed

By:  vic-eldred  •  one month ago  •  15 comments

The Midterm Watch / Part 3 : The House of Representatives
"I’m wishing the election were in August," Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the liberal group Third Way, told Politico. "I think we peaked a little early." A progressive ad maker who worked on Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign said it was clear Republicans had "seized the upper hand."

Link to Quote: https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/2022-midterm-election-updates-while-democrats-gop-fight-to-win-house-of-representatives-senate

We are 17 days to the midterm elections. Crime is emerging as a major issue. People are worried about prices and heating their homes and rampant crime. Those are the issues of survival. The polls are begining to catch up with reality. Republicans are now up by 6 points. In the House races the seats of all 435 representatives will be up for election. The 2022 election will be the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. That means Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon have all gained seats. Dishonest California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia lost seats. 

Only about 37 of the 435 House races are competitive, the others currently seem less so.

The most competitive races:


District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House (a) President (b)
AK-AL house-peltola-ak.jpg Mary Peltola
2022 1st
9.1% 10.1%
Mary Peltola*
 
Nick Begich
 
Sarah Palin
AZ-1 S001183.jpg David Schweikert
2011 6th
N/A 1.5%
Jevin Hodge
 
David Schweikert*
AZ-2 O000171.jpg Tom O'Halleran
2017 3rd
N/A 8.4%
Tom O'Halleran*
 
Eli Crane
AZ-6 K000368.jpg Ann Kirkpatrick
2019 2nd
N/A 0.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Kirsten Engel
 
Juan Ciscomani
CA-13 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 11.4%
Adam Gray
 
John Duarte
CA-22 V000129.jpg David Valadao
2021 1st
N/A 13.1%
Rudy Salas
 
David Valadao*
CA-27 G000061.jpg Mike Garcia
2020 2nd
N/A 12.7%
Christy Smith
 
Mike Garcia*
CA-45 house-steel-ca48.jpg Michelle Steel
2021 1st
N/A 6.3%
Jay Chen
 
Michelle Steel*
CA-47 P000618.jpg Katie Porter
2019 2nd
N/A 11.9%
Katie Porter*
 
Scott Baugh
CA-49 L000593.jpg Mike Levin
2019 2nd
N/A 11.3%
Mike Levin*
 
Brian Maryott
CO-8 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Yadira Caraveo
 
Barbara Kirkmeyer
CT-5 H001081.jpg Jahana Hayes
2019 2nd
N/A 10.9%
Jahana Hayes*
 
George Logan
FL-7 M001202.jpg Stephanie Murphy
2017 3rd
N/A 5.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Karen Green
 
Cory Mills
IA-3 A000378.jpg Cindy Axne
2019 2nd
N/A 0.4%
Cindy Axne*
 
Zach Nunn
IL-13 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 11.3%
Nikki Budzinsksi
 
Regan Deering
IL-17 B001286.jpg Cheri Bustos
2013 5th
N/A 7.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Eric Sorensen
 
Esther King
IN-1 house-mrvan-in1.jpg Frank Mrvan
2021 1st
N/A 8.5%
Frank Mrvan*
 
Jennifer-Ruth Green
KS-3 D000629.jpg Sharice Davids
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Sharice Davids*
 
Amanda Adkins
MD-6 T000483.jpg David Trone
2019 2nd
N/A 10.0%
David Trone*
 
Neil Parrott
ME-2 G000592.jpg Jared Golden
2019 2nd
N/A 6.1%
Jared Golden*
 
Bruce Poliquin
MI-3 house-meijer-mi3.jpg Peter Meijer
2021 1st
N/A 8.6%
Incumbent defeated in Republican primary for 2022 election.
Hillary Scholten
 
John Gibbs
MI-7 S001208.jpg Elissa Slotkin
2019 2nd
N/A 0.9%
Elissa Slotkin*
 
Tom Barrett
MI-8 K000380.jpg Daniel Kildee
2013 5th
N/A 2.1%
Dan Kildee*
 
Paul Junge
MI-10 L000592.jpg OPEN
N/A 0.7%
Carl Marlinga
 
John James
MN-2 C001119.jpg Angela Craig
2019 2nd
N/A 7.4%
Angie Craig*
 
Tyler Kistner
MT-1 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 7.1%
Monica Tranel
 
Ryan Zinke
NC-1 B001251.jpg G. K. Butterfield
2004 10th
N/A 8.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Don Davis
 
Sandy Smith
NC-13 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 1.8%
Wiley Nickel
 
Bo Hines
NE-2 B001298.jpg Don Bacon
2017 3rd
N/A 6.4%
Tony Vargas
 
Don Bacon*
NH-1 P000614.jpg Chris Pappas
2019 2nd
N/A 5.7%
Chris Pappas*
 
Karoline Leavitt
NJ-7 M001203.jpg Tom Malinowski
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Tom Malinowski*
 
Tom Kean Jr
NM-2 house-herrell-nm2.jpg Yvette Herrell
2021 1st
N/A 5.7%
Gabriel Vasquez
 
Yvette Herrell*
NV-1 T000468.jpg Dina Titus
2013 5th
N/A 8.7%
Dina Titus*
 
Mark Robertson
NV-3 L000590.jpg Susie Lee
2019 2nd
N/A 6.7%
Susie Lee*
 
April Becker
NV-4 H001066.jpg Steven Horsford
2019 2nd
N/A 8.3%
Steven Horsford*
 
Sam Peters
NY-1 Z000017.jpg Lee Zeldin
2015 4th
N/A 0.0%
Retiring to run for Governor
Bridget Fleming
 
Nicholas LaLota
NY-3 S001201.jpg Thomas Suozzi
2017 3rd
N/A 8.5%
Retiring to run for Governor
Robert Zimmerman
 
George Santos
NY-4 R000602.jpg Kathleen Rice
2015 4th
N/A 14.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Laura Gillen
 
Anthony D'Esposito
NY-17 M001185.jpg Sean P. Maloney
2013 5th
N/A 10.1%
Sean Patrick Maloney*
 
Michael Lawler
NY-18 house-ryan-ny19.jpg Pat Ryan
2022 1st
N/A 8.5%
Pat Ryan
 
Colin Schmitt
NY-19 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Josh Riley
 
Marc Molinaro
NY-22 K000386.jpg John Katko
2015 4th
N/A 7.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Francis Conole
 
Brandon Williams
OH-1 C000266.jpg Steve Chabot
2011 6th
N/A 8.6%
Greg Landsman
 
Steve Chabot*
OH-9 K000009.jpg Marcy Kaptur
1983 20th
N/A 2.8%
Marcy Kaptur*
 
JR Majewski
OH-13 G000588.jpg Anthony Gonzalez
2019 2nd
N/A 2.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Emilia Sykes
 
Madison Gesiotto
OR-4 D000191.jpg Peter DeFazio
1987 18th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Val Hoyle
 
Alek Skarlatos
OR-5 S001180.jpg Kurt Schrader
2009 7th
N/A 8.8%
Incumbent defeated in Democratic primary for 2022 election.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner
 
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
OR-6 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 13.2%
Andrea Salinas
 
Mike Erickson
PA-7 W000826.jpg Susan Wild
2018 3rd
N/A 0.6%
Susan Wild*
 
Lisa Scheller
PA-8 C001090.jpg Matt Cartwright
2013 5th
N/A 2.9%
Matt Cartwright*
 
Jim Bognet
PA-17 L000588.jpg Conor Lamb
2018 3rd
N/A 6.0%
Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Chris Deluzio
 
Jeremy Shaffer
RI-2 L000559.jpg James Langevin
2001 11th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Seth Magaziner
 
Allan Fung
TN-5 C000754.jpg Jim Cooper
2003 10th
N/A 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Heidi Campbell
 
Andy Ogles
TX-15 no_image.png OPEN
N/A 2.9%
Michelle Vallejo
 
Monica De La Cruz
TX-28 C001063.jpg Henry Cuellar
2005 9th
N/A 7.2%
Henry Cuellar*
 
Cassy Garcia
TX-34 no_image.png Mayra Flores | Vicente Gonzalez
N/A 15.7%
Incumbents of both parties redistricted together
Vicente Gonzalez*
 
Mayra Flores*
VA-2 L000591.jpg Elaine Luria
2019 2nd
N/A 3.1%
Elaine Luria*
 
Jen Kiggans
VA-7 S001209.jpg Abigail Spanberger
2019 2nd
N/A 6.3%
Abigail Spanberger*
 
Yesli Vega
WA-8 S001216.jpg Kim Schrier
2019 2nd
N/A 6.9%
Kim Schrier*
 
Matt Larkin
WI-3 K000188.jpg Ron Kind
1997 13th
N/A 4.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Brad Pfaff
 
Derrick Van Orden

(a) Source:   Cook Political Report , 270toWin research. N/A for new district boundaries. In most cases, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the November 3, 2020 general election.

These elections are normally tied to local issues, but this time federal policy has had a major impact on the country.  It will really be interesting to see if Nancy Pelosi remains in congress as a minority leader. If she does stay under such circumstances, the new likely Speaker, Kevin McCarthy will be able to exact his revenge for Pelosi's departure from norms on placing minority members on committees.  


Tags

jrDiscussion - desc
[]
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1  author  Vic Eldred    one month ago

It will only be a question of how badly the democrats lose

 
 
 
dennissmith
Freshman Silent
1.1  dennissmith  replied to  Vic Eldred @1    one month ago

A real ass kicking is coming and the dems and their supporters are still in full denial.  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.1  author  Vic Eldred  replied to  dennissmith @1.1    one month ago

I want steel-toed shoes used for the ass kicking!

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
2  JohnRussell    one month ago

299 of the Republicans running for office in November are election deniers. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
2.1  author  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @2    one month ago

It won't work.

It is a referendum on the Biden presidency.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
2.2  Tessylo  replied to  JohnRussell @2    one month ago

So they'll have tons of whack jobs to vote for them

 
 
 
arkpdx
Professor Participates
2.2.1  arkpdx  replied to  Tessylo @2.2    one month ago

No I don't think that there will be that many Democrats voting 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
2.3  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @2    one month ago

Tough shit. Time to toss the socialist scum onto the scrap heap of history

 
 
 
arkpdx
Professor Participates
2.4  arkpdx  replied to  JohnRussell @2    one month ago

So?

 
 
 
Jasper2529
Professor Participates
3  Jasper2529    one month ago
These elections are normally tied to local issues, but this time federal policy has had a major impact on the country.

Very true. Americans have finally awakened to what Obama portended 5 days before his 2008 election. He and Biden spent 8 years working to fulfill that warning, and now Biden has 4 years to further it. 

Mid-term Republicans are focused on issues that actually impact most Americans' lives: inflation/economy, rampant crime with no repercussions, illegal aliens/open border/illegal drug and human traffiking, education indoctrination. 

Mid-term Democrats are focused on abortion, January 6th, and "feelings" (sex, gender, pronouns, imaginary racial issues in schools and the military).

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1  author  Vic Eldred  replied to  Jasper2529 @3    one month ago

Isn't it amazing. They came to power in 2020 and did all the crazy things they learned in college, as if the rest of the country wanted that shit. Remember, my friend, the party begins on November 8th. You are invited.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
Professor Participates
3.1.1  Jasper2529  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.1    one month ago

Remember, Obama warned us about Joe in 2020 ...

On the eve of the 2020 Iowa caucuses, Politico lobbed a grenade in  Joe Biden ’s direction. It was a  story  noting that the former vice president was trying to play the  Obama  card—even though Barack Obama hadn’t endorsed the man who had served him faithfully for eight years. The money quote was cutting: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to [expletive] things up.”

In an Oct. 11 CNN interview, Mr. Biden again suggested that if there is a problem, it is the failure to appreciate just how great he has been. “Name me a president, in recent history, who’s gotten as much done, as I have, in the first two years,” he said. “Not a joke. You may not like what I got done. But the vast majority of the American people do like what I got done.”

His approval ratings—and the reluctance of Democratic candidates to appear with him in public—say otherwise.

Remember, my friend, the party begins on November 8th. You are invited.

Thanks!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1.2  author  Vic Eldred  replied to  Jasper2529 @3.1.1    one month ago

The problem for Politico was finding a worthy democratic presidential candidate out of that pathetic lot.  Ahh, but then came the pandemic and the media blamed Trump. The DNC primaries eventually came down to Sanders or Biden and Obama & co stepped in and the grand backroom deal was made. The nation is still paying for it.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Masters Quiet
3.2  Jack_TX  replied to  Jasper2529 @3    one month ago
Mid-term Democrats are focused on abortion, January 6th, and "feelings" (sex, gender, pronouns, imaginary racial issues in schools and the military).

You go with what won you the last election.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.2.1  author  Vic Eldred  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2    one month ago

 
 

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