As Inflation Dies, A New Bull Market Is Emerging | InvestorPlace
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Investors who own the right stocks will make fortunes when this bull market takes off
January 13, 2023 By Luke Lango, InvestorPlace Senior Investment Analyst Jan 13, 2023, 1:32 pm EST January 13, 2023
- In a new bull market, you tend to see things like housing, airline, copper, and industrial stocks lead the rally. Meanwhile, energy, utility, and healthcare stocks tend to lag - exactly what's happening today.
- Typically, when inflation rises sharply, stocks plummet. Conversely, when it falls sharply, stocks tend to rocket. And inflation is collapsing right now.
- Stocks tend to rally by about 20% in the 12 months after inflation peaks.
Source: shutterstock.com/Halk-44
Stocks are off to a hot start in the new year.
We're only eight trading days into 2023, and yet the S&P 500 is already up about 4%. The Nasdaq is up even more, with a 5% gain year-to-date. And our core Innovation Investor portfolio is up almost 8% in that same time!
A few of our stocks have already popped more than 30% in 2023!
What's happening here?
Well, a new bull market is emerging .
Just look at the stocks that are leading and lagging in this rally.
In a new bull market, you tend to see things like housing, airline, copper, and industrial stocks lead the rally. Meanwhile, energy, utility, and healthcare stocks tend to lag.
That's exactly what we're seeing today.
Year-to-date, industrial stocks are up 5%. Housing stocks are up 10%. Copper stocks jumped 16%, and airline stocks are up a whopping 18%. Meanwhile, energy stocks are up less than 3%. Utility stocks have risen less than 2%, and healthcare stocks have gone nowhere. That's typical "new bull market" price action.
We are seeing this price action because the incoming economic data is strongly suggesting that inflation is dying .
A Bull Market Emerges
Inflation is the enemy of the stock market. Typically, when it rises sharply, stocks plummet. Conversely, when inflation falls sharply, stocks tend to rocket.
Inflation is collapsing right now.
Yesterday, we learned that in December, consumer prices fell month-over-month. They dropped 0.1% from November. Monthly drops in the consumer price index are exceptionally rare. They only happen about once every few years. But when they do, they always signal that inflation is dying.
Sure, headline inflation rates in December were still 6.5% year-over-year. But that was a 70-basis-point slowdown from November's inflation rate, which itself was a 60-basis-point slowdown from October's inflation rate.
At this rate of disinflation (60 to 70 basis points of disinflation per month), headline year-over-year inflation rates will drop to 2% by June!
Forget what you're hearing on TV or reading in the paper. The data says inflation is crashing fast.
That's why stocks are soaring in 2023 - and why they'll keep soaring for the next 12 months (at least) .
Stocks tend to soar in the 12 months after inflation peaks. Average returns going back to the 1920s? About 12%. And that includes The Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis - the only two times in history that stocks crashed after inflation peaked And we have neither condition present today.
Excluding those, stocks tend to rally by about 20% in the 12 months after inflation peaks.
The Final Word
Put simply…
When inflation crashes, stocks pretty much always soar for about 12 months. Inflation is crashing right now, so it's very likely that stocks soar over the next 12 months.
In fact, given the dynamics at play today, we think that 2023 will be a record year for the stock market.
We think a 30% or bigger rally is on deck .
In this mega-rally that almost no one sees coming, certain stocks will soar 100%, 200%, even 500%-plus over the next 12 months alone.
Investors who own the right stocks will make fortunes.
So… the question is… do you own the right stocks?
We do. That's why our core portfolio is already up almost 8% year-to-date.
Find out what stocks are driving those big gains and which could soar more than 100% this year alone .
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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There is lots of good economic news out lately!
yes, but isn't it still a shame about those inflation rates!
News that certain people will be sure to ignore.
or willing to recognize everything isn't as rosy as Democrats would have us believe.
inflation is still high unless you don't think a 6.5 per cent increase from the year prior is hurting anyone.
Isn’t inflation still outpacing wage growth?
yes it is but some folks are willing to gloss over that because the Dems were in charge
We've been seeing a lot of things glossed over in the last 2 years.
new cottage industry, glossing over Biden's remarks and actions!
Inflation is now 6% year over year but the SS COLA increase was 8.7%. Last month prices actually declined. I am so sorry if these facts upset your downer agenda...
The hedge fund get rich when everyone else loses guys are talking down stocks because they bet big on à big recession.
Instead, prices are stabilized and should be at an annual rate of 2% by June. We had a two quarter recession that already ended.
"Economics is just math" - Bill Clinton...
But how can that be? I'm pretty sure FoxNews said that America, as we know it, was about to end because of Biden and inflation.
/sarc
I sure hope that didn't come from any of those folks who claimed inflation was just temporary way back in July 2021. They don't seem reliable.
Inflation in the United States hit a record high in June 2022. Consumer prices soared by 9.1% compared with a year prior, the largest annual increase since 1981. While wages are rising, they’re not keeping up with inflation. Wage growth has been consistent with an inflation rate of about 4.5%. Meanwhile, as of November, inflation was at 7.1%.
Statistics are just math - Drinker of the Wry.
Isn’t inflation still outpacing wage growth?
Funny. Here I thought the article was about the stock market yet not one comment about that...
hmm.
maybe the first comment is a clue as to the overall discussion?
or maybe the headline????
Say whatever the fuck you want. Just pointing out the whole article is about stocks.
your permission is unnecessary and not asked for.
If you needed my permission you would be deleted from this whole seed as you still not even addressed one single thing in the article.
Yet that is up to JBB.
when you get around to reading the article you will find it mentions inflation a number of times, thus making it on topic.
good thing you aren't a mod!
As causation for stocks....
I read the article.
which is why I didn't claim that inflation isn't on topic or not included in the article.
The doomsayers in the gop are greatly disappointed that we are not suffering a massive recession to blame Biden for...
So you cannot see any causation that it could have on stocks? That is what they are talking about. How it impacts the market, not about the subject itself.
I never said that. Stop inferring what you want from my posts.
Nonsense.
Is Luke Lango a Fraud?
So, what is our impression of the guy thus far? Well, there is still a lot to tackle to get a fuller picture. But we checked his current TipRanks profile , and we saw an unflattering update:
Leftists will take any good news these days- even if it is from someone full of shit; and wrong nearly all of the time.
Average return rating is -27%? Why would anyone listen to him for stock advise?
Nobody with a 3 digit IQ.