When Trump says he'll end the Ukraine-Russia war in a day, here's what that really means
Category: News & Politics
Via: hal-a-lujah • 11 months ago • 66 commentsBy: Fred Kaplan (Slate Magazine)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Several times in recent weeks, Donald Trump has said that, if he were elected president again, he would end the Russia-Ukraine war "in one day." He even claimed in one interview: "That deal would be easy."
Trump gave no hint of how he would do this, but it's worth noting that he has long believed that international diplomacy is easy and that the failure of many past presidents to strike good deals shows only that they've all been (as he once put it) "very, very stupid" and that he "alone" has the right kind of smarts to fix the mess.
His one term in the White House should have disabused him of this notion. The fact that he still believes in his unique talents as a deal-maker—after his bargaining tactics with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran accomplished nothing or worse—suggests he is incapable of seeing the world as it is, or at least of learning any lessons from it.
There is nothing new in this. Back in 1988, when George H.W. Bush became president, Trump lobbied to become his arms-control negotiator. He had recently authored a bestselling book, The Art of the Deal, and, though it was entirely ghostwritten and largely embellished, he figured that should give him street cred in the highest realms of deal-making. Bush's aides laughed off his illusions and instead appointed Richard Burt, a real and seasoned diplomat.
Burt later told Politico (and, later still, confirmed to me) an enlightening story about Trump's notion of tough negotiations. Around 1990, when Burt was beginning a new round of Soviet-American nuclear arms talks, he ran into Trump at a reception in New York. Trump expressed envy of Burt's position and asked if he'd like some advice on how to cut a "terrific" deal. Burt suppressed a chuckle and said, "Sure." Trump told him this: Arrive late at the next negotiating session, walk over to where your counterpart sits impatiently, look down at him, poke your finger in his chest, and scream, "Fuck you!"
Needless to say, Burt ignored Trump's advice, yet nonetheless managed in the course of a year to negotiate the START treaty, which ordered major reductions in both sides' nuclear arsenals.
Most mortals, following the news, would think to themselves, "Hmm, maybe I don't know everything there is to know about this subject." But Trump, upon entering the White House 15 years after the encounter, proclaimed that he knew "far more about foreign policy" than his predecessor and (referring to the leading Islamist terrorist group of the time) "more about ISIS than the generals."
Quite possibly, he really believed that. Throughout his presidency, as well as before and after, he exhibited a particularly dangerous quality for an aspiring leader of a global power: He knows very little but thinks he knows a lot.
As president, his few forays into diplomacy revealed his shortage of skills even in the tactics of deal-making. He abrogated the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign, which he said would force Tehran back to the tables to negotiate a "better deal." Instead, after spending a year fruitlessly looking for their own diplomatic alternatives, the Iranians resumed enriching uranium and are now much closer to building atomic bombs than they ever were.
Sometimes Trump simply sowed confusion. Early in his term, he ramped up tariffs against China, then admitted to having "second thoughts," then had a spokesman backpedal on that. Before a G7 summit, he ordered American companies to stop doing business with China (something he didn't have the power to do anyway). Then, at a news conference right after the summit, he referred to President Xi Jinping as a "great leader" who would make a deal soon—and added that, once he did, the U.S. companies should stay put and "do a great job."
Asked about his tendency to veer back and forth, Trump replied, "It's the way I negotiate. It's done very well for me over the years, and it's doing even better for the country." It might have done well for Trump as a New York real estate tycoon who boosted profits by bilking suppliers and evaded debt by declaring multiple bankruptcies. But such ploys didn't work so well in the more complex arena of international politics. The only message that Xi, or any other leader, would (and should) have taken from the confusion is that Trump didn't know what he wanted—and therefore could be waited out with no serious reprisals.
The heart of Trump's failure as a foreign-policy president was that he had no concept of what U.S. national interests were and therefore tuned all encounters to his own interests and the appeal of personal relationships—as he saw them.
He mistook the "beautiful letters" from North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un as tokens of genuine intimacy, even telling one crowd, shortly after their first summit, "We fell in love." At a subsequent meeting, he tried to persuade Kim to turn the North Korean coastline into a capitalist wonderland of hotel casinos—and thought this could be the basis for a transformative peace. He didn't think for a moment that Kim might have no interest in this sort of development. To his credit, Trump rejected a blatantly one-sided deal that Kim offered at their 2019 summit in Hanoi. His term ended with Kim building up his nuclear program and testing more missiles.
He also took his personal bonhomie with Russian President Vladimir Putin as evidence that his own intelligence agencies were wrong in concluding that the Kremlin had interfered in U.S. elections. As late as September 2020, Trump said at a rally, "I like Putin, he likes me."
We should all beware presidential candidates who bear "secret plans" to solve some hideous crisis that the incumbent has somehow been unable to handle. In the 1968 campaign, Richard Nixon said he had a secret plan to end the Vietnam War. It turned out to be the "madman theory"—having his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, tell the North Vietnamese that Nixon was crazy and that he would drop an A-bomb on Hanoi if they didn't engage in peace talks now. When that didn't work, Nixon dropped more than 20,000 tons of conventional bombs on North Vietnam in the course of 12 days. That didn't work either.
From what we know about Trump, what kind of plan might be churning in his head to end the Russia-Ukraine war in a single day of talks? If he actually does have a plan, it probably involves two elements. First, he would halt arms deliveries to Ukraine. He's leery of foreign commitments broadly, and he dislikes President Volodymyr Zelensky in particular; it was Trump's "perfect" phone call—in which he held up Javelin anti-tank missiles pending Zelensky's agreement to dig up dirt on Joe Biden—that led to his first impeachment. Second, he would ask his good friend Putin for a favor.
In short, his idea of a deal rests on the usual combination of personal relationships (animosity toward Zelensky, illusory friendship with Putin), naivete (the notion that those relationships would drive either leader to abandon his interests), a lack of understanding about the nature and stakes of this war, and a complete indifference toward its outcome.
More than that, it wouldn't end the war, though it would make things easier for Putin. And that would be just fine for Trump.
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Around 1990, when Burt was beginning a new round of Soviet-American nuclear arms talks, he ran into Trump at a reception in New York. Trump expressed envy of Burt's position and asked if he'd like some advice on how to cut a "terrific" deal. Burt suppressed a chuckle and said, "Sure." Trump told him this: Arrive late at the next negotiating session, walk over to where your counterpart sits impatiently, look down at him, poke your finger in his chest, and scream, "Fuck you!"
This fucking moron was elected President of the United States. How embarrassing is that?
Sounds like you're having a hard time moving on.
Well, a complete moron was elected POTUS, failed miserably at the job, was impeached twice, is facing multiple indictments, and happens to be the Republican front runner for the next presidential election. It would be easier to move on if the Republican Party would just grow a spine and force this fool into the dustbin of history.
putin should kidnap trump and ransom the maga scum to finance his war...
Do you think Trump's kids or wife would really pay ransom for him?
Or anyone for that matter?
Brandon and the Democrats wouldn't be able to send him a big enough thank you present. They would simply state that Trump defected to Russia. It isn't like any of the alphabet agencies are going to say otherwise. The leftist media would have a field day with it.
Putin isn't stupid. He doesn't want to be struck with Trump.
yeah, one form of cancer is enough...
He was followed up by Brandon the Human Fuck Up Machine.
Which shows there is still room for plenty of embarrassment in the top office. Especially since Brandon vs Trump in the Federal elections is a real possibility.
Can we one day look forward to AOC; another member of the squad; or MTG holding the Oval Office one day?
Just how much embarrassment, stupidity, and criminality are we willing to put up with?
Brandon the Human Fuck Up Machine
This is such a wordy and un-clever nickname. Even Trump could come up with something better than that. Yet you guys stay busy wearing your angry little fingers down to the nub by typing it over and over and over and over. There’s a reason Trump wasn’t nicknamed Donald the Subhuman Fuckup Machine, regardless of accuracy.
He's the only one who refers to the President that way.
I pay no attention to anything he says.
Not nearly as embarrassing as the bumbling idiot in the WH who can't climb stairs, walk across a stage or even remember where his own son died.
Biden does indeed make embarrassing faux pas; more than the average PotUS. But that does not compare with unforced errors by Trump such as claiming (even to the present) that the 2020 election was rigged, that US voters were disenfranchised and that Biden in not the legitimate PotUS?
How can you NOT be embarrassed by such lunacy coming from the mouth of a former PotUS? One that the GOP (in its current state of disfunction) is likely to seat as its nominee.
Do you recognize that Trump is wrong in his claims or do you simply accept what he states as truth?
And yet has at the very least reduced the Russian military to second rate, given China pause on their Taiwan ambitions, and watched NATO become stronger than ever. Biden shouldn't run again, but his 4 years weren't too bad when it came to America's strength on the world stage.
“How embarrassing is that?”
I know it was ages ago, but it reminds me of the time Blinken smoothed over a rough road and some US president turned right around with the gas can and called Xi a dictator.
if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck....
Xi is for all intents and purposes, a dicktater. The CCP appointed him, unopposed, to a third ten year term in spite of the two term limit in their Constitution which conveniently disappeared two weeks later. The 69 year old Xi has nine more years to solidify his hold on power or pick his own successor.
We can agree to wait until March of 2033 to see if he is "appointed" again as head of the party, CiC and President,
but I am pretty sure dictator already fits.
Why don’t you use a fuckin hammer for that?
What the fuck are you talking about?
But that didn't stop the author from going on and on with nothing more than TDS driven speculation.
Maybe he would poke his finger into Zelenskyy’s chest and demand surrendering to Putin. Easy peasy, right?
Just cut off the endless US funds and force Zelensky to the negotiating table. No money propping up his corrupt administration; or to pay the mercenaries protecting him; and the fake John Wayne in tailor fitted khakis will have to admit he can't dislodge Russia. He turn his time to begging for money to rebuild his country; and trying to convince what are left of his people that he still deserves to be their leader.
Either the fascist enabler negotiates and cedes some territory- maybe with the promise that Ukraine will be accepted to NATO (not my idea; but NATO lost it's moral compass long, long, ago. So what is one more corrupt leach country?).
Russia's military is no longer a threat to Europe. There is no reason for either side to keep sending people the proxy war slaughter mill. Except to make Brandon and a bunch world order pricks with no skin in the game feel good about screaming "Russia, Russia, Russia". Ukraine will never be able to get rid of Russia's nuclear weapons; and the only real threat Putin has left is destroying the planet. He will never concede defeat; and never willingly relinquish power.
JFC - that’s some impressive propaganda right there. Does anyone here still believe you aren’t a Russian agent? I suppose you’ve got similar advice to every other sovereign state bordering mother Russia?
Why? He wasn't the one that started the war in the first place. You are aware the the Ukraine is an ALLY of the USA, right?
Putin's demise will come from within Russia. It looks like it's already started. The problem with nuclear weapons is that they don't work against enemies in your own country.
It's deplorable, disgusting, it's PD&D with a hefty helping of delusion.
Is this what comes as the result of being bullied?
Man, boris, getting desperate over there eh?
Fuck that! It doesn't force Zelensky to the negotiating table. It enables Russia to take Ukraine and move on to actual NATO countries including Poland as Putin and other Russian officials have stated was their end game. The minute they they move on a NATO country is the second the US sends in troops.
I think people forget that Putin wants the Warsaw Pact back in action. After Poland, what's to stop him from invading Germany?
We need to keep this psycho as far away as possible from international diplomacy.
So you are going to keep Brandon the Human Fuck Up Machine and Kamila in the Oval Office?
What has Brandon done to warrant it? China and Russia are much bigger problems now than when Trump was in office. Appeasement isn't working at all with Iran. Ignoring North Korea isn't slowing their nuclear progress. The Brandon Establishment retirement fund draining US resources into Ukraine is accomplishing nothing- except making China very happy. NATO countries are starting to back China. Guess they know a loser when they see one. The South Pacific Alliance forming to deter China won't be ready in time to stop them from taking Taiwan. When the high point of your administration is the Afghan withdrawal- it is time to punt.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Elections are choices between specific options. It’s not Joe Biden vs the World. If that were the case, I wouldn’t for him. There are millions of other people I could vote for.
But that’s the not the choice, is it? The choice is a goofy, doddering old man, who may not be all there vs. an absolute psycho who will throw gasoline on a fire as a demonstration of how smart he thinks he is.
That makes it an easy choice, if an unpleasant one.
Doddering old man who is guilty of the very things Democrats accused Trump of.
Give me Trump. I would rather have gasoline thrown on the fire than Brandon trying to figure out how to profit from the world falling to pieces under his watch.
But wasn't that the argument the first time around? That Trump would crash the stock market and get us into another World War? That didn't happen back then either. Maybe a touch less of pushing fear and a more honest argument? I'll agree that Trump has an ego that requires that he tell us all that he's the smartest guy in the room. I don't want to vote for him but I also don't want to vote for Biden. Not looking forward to what choices we have next year but I'm hoping that the RNC stops Trump. Maybe he'll mess up so badly in the debates that he tanks his chances? I don't know what will happen, just waiting to see.
Do you or do you not recognize that Trump is a loose diplomatic cannon who is so out of control that he should never be allowed the powers of the presidency under any circumstances?
The reality is NOT that Biden is a poor choice and so is Trump; the reality is that Biden is a poor choice and that Trump should never be considered.
We had him. We got yet another Republican tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthy and is adding $2T to our debt. We got the diplomatic vandalism of abrogating JCPOA, now Iran has uranium refined to 83.7% (close to weapons grade). A clueless, impromptu trade war with China that devastated farming and drove manufacturing into recession. And the epic mis/non-management of the pandemic that resulted in the gov’t borrowing $7.9T to prop up the country. We also had a per capita death rate that was twice comparable western industrialized nations — so about 500,000 avoidable deaths. Then there are the main pre-election promises:
1) A wall that Mexico would pay for. Nope.
2) Reduction in the debt. Super nope.
3) Bring back coal & manufacturing. Nope & nope.
4) Healthcare that’s cheaper and better than Obamacare. Nope.
5) Infrastructure build. Nope.
6) Remove all undocumented immigrants. Laughable nope.
Trump does not have one attribute you would want your kids to have. He provided an endless supply of incredibly stupid poop tweets. He's a career grifter whose myriad of scams screwed thousands of innocents. He is an incredible embarrassment on the world stage. He attempted a coup and caused an insurrection. All of this in the service of providing this insecure idiot with validation, a black hole that can never be sated.
He can have him.
Better than Trump.
If either of my kids had tweeted the nonsense that he did, they would still be grounded
I'd like to try that at the negotiating table...Fuck You!
Yeah...that will get me escorted out of the building
Stop writing blank checks and the Ukrainian war ends pretty quickly. The only thing that allows the war to continue is US aid. And it's pretty obvious that continuing US aid won't end the war, either.
Not even a Trump clown show can hide how badly Biden screwed up Ukraine. Biden has led the US into a quagmire and refuses to do anything to get the US out of that quagmire. And Biden can't stop the gravy train of US aid because Biden can't admit he botched it up.
Yes, Trump can end the war pretty quickly. But, then, any rational President could end the Ukrainian war pretty quickly. Biden continuing the Ukrainian war just to stroke his own ego isn't rational.
Putin's autocratic regime appreciates your support. Send money.
And Biden's autocratic regime appreciates your support. Biden will simply take the money so supporting Biden requires no effort at all.
I guess I missed the part where Biden asked Russia to invade the Ukraine?
During the six months before the invasion, Biden repeatedly promised Putin that the United States would not fight Russia. And Biden has kept his promise to Putin.
wait till you see what happens to putin supporters here...
Of course. That is how liberals do things. There'll be a lot of liberal attacks on Putin supporters (real and imagined) this fall after the Ukrainian counter offensive proves to be indecisive.
Excuse me?
Anyone who supports putin is scum.
meh, I was referring to the simmering civil war within the right that will soon boil over. good times.
And the right just automatically supports Putin, that's how conservatives do things; if it's bad, they will support it.
Some are not even denying it anymore.
And, yet, conservatives are accused of spending too much on defense.
because despite their religious posturing, they know that prayer really doesn't work...
Trump said he, 'Knows more than the generals." There it is. There you have it. Also send money. His lawyers are costly. And also are his lawyers-lawyers.
The problem being that none of Trump's lawyers hang around long enough to cash the imaginary checks that Trump doesn't pay them with.
Trump will probably write love letters to Putin, nope dammit that was Kim Jong Un. Built a hotel in Moscow, that's the ticket.
they can all be neighbors...
Not even Mr. Rogers would want them to be his neighbors.
So someone from slate magazine thinks he knows what trump is really thinking when he says something. I guess that is because of all the years trump has lived rent free in his head.
Kinda like when one of you tells me what I think.....without asking me what I think
I have no idea when, who or why anyone would tell you what you think. I will say it happens alot here. I also don't know why you tried to deflect.
that's not deflecting. I'm offering an opinion to your opinion.
If you say so