Melting ice is slowing Earth's spin and shifting its axis, research shows
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Climate change is altering the Earth to its literal core, new research suggests.
As polar and glacial ice melts because of global warming, water that was once concentrated at the top and the bottom of the globe is getting redistributed toward the equator. The extra mass around Earth's middle slows its rotation, which in turn has a lengthening effect on our days.
A new study offers more evidence of that dynamic and further suggests that changes to the planet's ice have been profound enough to affect the Earth's axis — the invisible line at its center around which it rotates. Together, those shifts are causing feedback beneath the surface, affecting the fluids that move around in Earth's molten core.
The findings were published in two journals, Nature Geoscience and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, over the last week.
The studies, along with similar research published in March, suggest that humans have tinkered with foundational elements of the planet's physical properties — a process that will continue until some time after global temperatures stabilize and the melting of ice sheets reaches an equilibrium.
"You can add Earth's rotation to this list of things humans have completely affected," said an author of the two new studies, Benedikt Soja, an assistant professor of space geodesy at ETH Zurich in Switzerland.
The alteration to Earth's spin is significant enough that it could one day rival the influence of tidal forces caused by the moon, Soja said — if carbon emissions continue at extreme levels.
In general, the speed of Earth's spin depends on the shape of the planet and where its mass is distributed — factors governed by several counteracting forces.
Scientists often offer a comparison to a figure skater twirling on ice: When skaters spin with their arms outstretched, their rotation will be slower. But if skaters' arms are kept in tight, they spin faster.
Somewhat similarly, the friction of ocean tides from the moon's gravitational pull slows the Earth's rotation. Historically, that has had the largest influence on the planet's rate of spin, Soja said.
Meanwhile, the slow rebound of the Earth's crust in some high-latitude regions after the removal of Ice Age glaciers works in the opposite direction, speeding up the planet's spin.
Both of those processes have long been predictable influences on the Earth's angular velocity.
But now, rapid ice melt due to global warming is becoming a powerful new force. If humans continue to pollute the planet with carbon emissions, Soja said, the influence of ice loss could overtake the moon's effect.
"In the worst scenarios, then yeah, climate change would become the most dominant factor," he said.
An iceberg in Antarctica on Feb. 8.ebnem Cokun / Anadolu via Getty Images file
An important fourth factor influencing Earth's spin is the motion of fluid within its core. Scientists have long understood that that can accelerate or slow the planet's rotation — a trend that can shift over 10- to 20-year intervals. Right now, the core is temporarily causing the Earth's spin to speed up slightly, counteracting the slowing due to climate change.
Climate change appears to be affecting Earth's core, as well, as a result of melting ice and shifts in the planet's rotational axis.
The researchers behind the new study built a 120-year model of polar motion, or how the axis shifts over time. They found that changes in the distribution of mass on the planet due to melting ice likely contributed to small fluctuations in polar motion.
Soja estimated that climate change was most likely responsible for 1 meter of change over 10 years.
The research further suggests that the movement of molten rock inside the Earth adjusts to the changes in its axis and rate of spin — a feedback process in which Earth's surface influences its interior.
"The rotation changes slightly, and that, we believe, can indirectly have an effect on the core," Soja said. "This is something which is not very easy or not possible to measure directly because we cannot go down there."
The findings have implications for how humans keep time and for how we position satellites in space.
"If you want to fly a new mission to Mars, for example, we really need to know how the state of the Earth is exactly in space, and if that changes we might actually make a navigation error or a mistake," Soja said.
A 1-meter change to Earth's axis, for example, could mean a spacecraft misses its target by 100 or 1,000 meters when it reaches Mars.
As for timekeeping, research published in March suggested that climate change has delayed the need to add a "negative leap second" to Coordinated Universal Time to keep the world's clocks in line with Earth's rotation.
Duncan Agnew, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, who led that earlier study, said the new research "meshes very well" with his work.
"It extends the result further into the future and looks at more than one climate scenario," Agnew said, adding that although Soja and his co-authors took a different approach, they reached a result similar to his.
"Multiple discoveries are almost the rule in science — this is yet another case," Agnew said.
Thomas Herring, a professor of geophysics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who was not involved in either study, said the new research may indeed offer insight into how changes on Earth's surface can influence what's going on inside.
"For the feedback between surface processes and the core, I find that plausible," Herring said in an email, explaining that "large scale" processes at the surface can "penetrate to the fluid core."
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Here's a toast to a global disaster in the next 12 months!
But now, rapid ice melt due to global warming is becoming a powerful new force. If humans continue to pollute the planet with carbon emissions, Soja said, the influence of ice loss could overtake the moon's effect.
I would really like to hear them explain the difference of the effect of ice loss prior to the last 7 ice ages and to why this time around it'll be different?
Duncan Agnew, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, who led that earlier study, said the new research "meshes very well" with his work.
"It extends the result further into the future and looks at more than one climate scenario," Agnew said, adding that although Soja and his co-authors took a different approach, they reached a result similar to his.
Well duh, it meshes very well because they are just confirming what happens with the long term water cycle of the earth, which happens even without us.
"Multiple discoveries are almost the rule in science — this is yet another case," Agnew said.
This just confirms what I have been saying, we are due for another ice age, the sea level rise prior to each ice age which happens because of what? Oh, yeah on land ice melt and because of less ice and more warm water a global temperature rise, it really is not that difficult to understand.
Because we are currently in an ice age, and this shouldn't be happening.
Before every ice age the sea levels were higher than today, if it were not from on land melting ice, where else could the rise come from?
Because we are currently in an ice age, and this shouldn't be happening.
I certainly hope you aren't using the Milankovitch Cycles as your reasoning that we should be in an ice age right now, you do realize that he based his entire theory on the term "Ice Age" and assumed that meant the climate had to be colder for there to be an ice age, when everything we have learned about the past ice ages shows it to be opposite of that, with the rise of the sea levels, the rise of CO2 levels because of the warming, and the warming itself. The reason the earth goes through ice ages is that the seas have too much warmer water in them and with the higher sea levels it's easier to transport that heat to the colder latitudes. Milankovitch dictates that whatever cools the northern hemisphere at the same time will heat the southern hemisphere, but if you look it up both hemispheres experiences an ice age at the same time which would be impossible with Milankovitch. The only thing that is the same in both hemispheres are the sea levels, hence the ice age in both hemispheres at the same time.
I keep saying, overpopulation is a problem. No politician wants to address that
No they don't and now the Project 2025 wants to ban birth control
Good "catch'/point!
They are unrealistic
but their god told them to go hump like rabbits...
no birth control, no abortions, and turning rape and incest into a population positive activity with forced birth...
You are correct. At the beginning of the last century, the earth population was 1 billion. We are now at 8 and that has an effect on everything.
I don't know how to feel about this. Technically, that means my weekends will be longer, but it will take longer to get to the weekend.
As long as a work day stays at 8 hours i’m fine with it.
Still... the first five days after the weekend are the hardest.
thank a union.
I’m in a union. Are/were you?
that's hilarious...
ibew didn't recognize low voltage as electrical 4 decades ago
What’s hilarious?
Yeah, i didn’t see anything hilarious either
I noticed the author is just a science reporter with NBC News, not a scientist himself. The Earth has been through all kinds of cycles and seas have risen and fallen innumerable times, particularly during the Ice Ages. There have been many Ice Ages in Earth's history, and we are not that far removed from the last one. One of these episodes was known as Snowball Earth. Any such rotation change effects would negligible to life on Earth.
Timeline of glaciation - Wikipedia
Snowball Earth - Wikipedia
The author has linked to or named several scientists and scholarly articles used in this seed, sounds like Mr Bush is doing his job correctly.
While that is true, 1. we are in an ice age presently and 2. The world population has grown 8X in the last 124 years. Everything we do creates a stress on the earth.
One has to wonder just how much all of the asphalt and concrete and dark roof shingles plays a part in the temperature increase. Perhaps THAT is the only way man is contributing or at least one of the ways.........just sayin'
How could that possibly play a part in temperatures increasing?
What nonsense.
Go stand in the middle of a black asphalt parking lot barefoot at 95 degrees and while your feet blister, feel the heat rising from said asphalt. And after you do that, lay your bare arms on top of your black car.
Nonsense
The black asphalt draws the heat - it doesn't raise temperatures
Ever heard of radiant heat? That being the heat rising due to the asphalt "drawing" the heat?
The Sun's energy is absorbed by the dark asphalt, which the heats the air above it.
Solar Radiation: How Sunlight Heats the Planet - Earth How
Solar Radiation vs Insolation: Key Differences Explained (sinovoltaics.com)
Yeah, as usual, you are my go to climate experts
Radiant heat has nothing to do with roofs and asphalt.
or add to climate change
Bullshit. Read a book FFS. Ever drive down road with little traffic and look in the distance. That wavy appearance is heat radiating off of the road.
.
Or even easier. Stand in the middle of a field with grass and the like, and then stand in the middle of a parking lot. Which one will feel hotter?
You acknowledge 6.1.4 then make that idiotic comment and 6.1.7?
And not even realize their own hypocrisy in it all.
I know that flight liine workers require extra breaks because the tarmac can get at least 20 degrees hotter than on a sidewalk
'just above the road'
I'm not a goddamned idiot.
I know the difference between how hot asphalt will be in the heat and a sidewalk or the grass.
and the like
Do you honestly think it just stays there?
When I was stationed at the Naval Branch Medical Clinic at MCAS Yuma, AZ in the mid and late 70's average summer temperatures were around 115 to 120 degrees F. Out on the concrete aprons and asphalt runways, the ambient temperature was around 140 F with outdoor work being kept to a minimum with multiple heat emergencies all summer long.
When I was stationed at Reese AFB, TX we did a WBGT every day in the summer. Fortunately, we didn't have much humidity but it still got hot. We would call it in to the Fire Department and HQ who would put it out over the Giant Voice
I made a fool of myself. Not for the first time I imagine, but I will admit - I shouldn't have dug in my heels when I was wrong. I looked into this and it is a contributor. Making/painting/coating roads/pavements, etc., etc. a lighter color has been brought up in the past and I don't know why this practice is not being put into place. I haven't looked into it much further at this point in time but will do so. I imagine there are places where this is in practice and should be developed on a much, much wider scale.
I should have looked into it further before making a fool of myself.
This is to my friends here at NT.
Mea culpa
I personally think they ought to put solar panels in parking lots. It would make our cars a lot cooler in the afternoon and they could generate lectricity
I was out in California not too long ago, Walmart had covered parking, and the roof was all solar tiles, Your car wasn't in the sun, and it generated electricity to run the store.
I remember a couple years back when California covered some canals with solar panels due to the droughts. It kept the precious water from evaporating while producing electricity
We should go into the green energy business and develop such things
They probably used the energy to run the pumps and sold the rest back to the grid, making it profitable X 2
That's an excellent idea
I had an idea for a mosquito trap based on my limited knowledge of biology but somebody beat me to it
50+ years ago, while out cruising shit faced and loaded one weekend, we found some house out in the sticks that had an early primitive version of a bug zapper. after watching it the first time, it became a regular stop during the summer months. we'd park on the road at his driveway and watch that thing reach out and fry the moths sci-fi like from more than a foot away it seemed. with every zap and snap we'd roar with laughter. when the interior house lights would come on we'd make a hasty retreat.
Damn it!
Sounds like you and your buddies know how to make a good time
make/have a good time
we did. only 2 of us left now...
Back in the late 80's when I was at McMurdo Station, Antarctica there was a glaciologist that I used to drink with in the Petty Officer's Club. He held pretty much the same ideas stated in the seeded article, but at the time he had been ostracized by the scientific community and his colleagues for his views so he had to back down or lose tenure at his university along with the grants he received from the National Science Foundation that funded his research. I am pretty sure he is laughing his head off now.
All of this ice melt stands to reason that it would alter things concerning rotation and tilt of the earth. Every ice age changes the position as to where the mass of water is residing and since we are approaching the next ice age we should expect the same.
Yep, there will probably be another huge inland sea in the middle of North America.
I don;t think we'll get to enjoy it tho because we'll all be dead
Yep, long dead because it would probably be many thousands if not more years before it happened unless we get a scenario like the movie 2012.
It may not be as far away as one might think, yeah we will be long gone, but the earth is entering the cascading phase of the ice melt before the next ice age begins.
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
And I feel fine
REM
Another thing that confuses people is the existence of the geographic North and South Poles as compared to the magnetic poles. The magnetic South Pole is 2,858 km away from the Geographic South Pole which is located at the Ammundsen-Scott South Pole Station marked by a red and white barber Pole style marker. The magnetic North Pole is located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Distances are on account of magnetic drift of the Earth's magnetic field or so I've been told.
Well, it was fun while it lasted. But wasn't the Earth ice-free when dinosaurs roamed the planet? Seems like the paleo-climate models should provide some insights. Maybe all we need is a little more artificial intelligence to figure this out.
The influence of humans on climate has been to either speed or slow natural processes. Taking that into account we should be able to conclude that climate change will correct itself. So, the real issue is whether or not humans, as a species, wish to survive the natural correction to the climate. It's our choice.