Trump is "desperate" to make a deal—China isn't, analysts say
China apparently gains upper hand, while TikTok's fate hangs in the balance
Does anyone - anyone at all - still imagine that these people have any idea what they're doing?
Flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flop.....
There are links in the seed.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Donald Trump convened a Cabinet meeting a day after announcing a 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs, with the exception of China.
Anna Moneymaker / Staff | Getty
Donald Trump has started signaling that he's ready to slash tariffs on Chinese imports, but economists have warned that the US softening its stance now likely cedes power to China, which perhaps benefits from dragging out trade talks.
On Tuesday, Trump confirmed that he is willing to reduce 145 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports. A senior White House official told The Wall Street Journal that the tariffs may come "down to between roughly 50 percent and 65 percent." Or perhaps the US may use a tiered approach, charging a 35 percent tax on goods that don't threaten national security, while requiring 100 percent tariffs on imports "deemed as strategic to America's interest," other insiders told the WSJ.
For now, Trump is being vague, only confirming that tariffs "won't be that high" or "anywhere near" 145 percent. Attempting to maintain a tough veneer, Trump warned that China must act quickly to make a deal to end the trade war or else risk making concessions that China may not consider ideal.
"If they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal," he said.
But analysts told the South China Morning Post that Trump appears "anxious" and "panicked," rushing to make a deal that China can afford to delay until more favorable terms are offered.
So far, Trump has not met with China's president Xi Jinping, the WSJ reported, which will be essential to inking a deal. Instead, US officials have been in contact with underlings who have not helped advance the deal. Last week, Trump confirmed the deal was not "imminent," the South China Morning Post reported, despite meeting a "number of times" to discuss opening up negotiations.
On Wednesday, while analysts suggested that Trump appeared "desperate" for a "quick deal," China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, warned that the only path to a deal required the US to "stop making threats and resorting to coercion." According to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, China is well-positioned to get a better deal.
"[Trump] needs a quick deal," Garcia-Herrero told the South China Morning Post. "China does not need to offer anything big in such circumstances, because the US is so desperate for a deal. With a few billion in imports from the US, China might manage to lower the tariffs. The deal might be sweeter for China than in 2019."
One source familiar with the Trump administration's thinking at this stage of negotiations told Reuters that Trump is even willing to stop acting unilaterally to get China to come to the table, likely offering that any future trade action "would be in conjunction with negotiations."
Another potential concession could find Trump phasing in tariffs over a five-year period, which could offer China a desirable cushion compared to some of the arbitrary tariffs that Trump announced on social media with enforcement deadlines within days.
Trump isn't so desperate that he's ready to remove all tariffs, though. On Tuesday, he confirmed that seemingly no matter how good negotiations go, "it won't be zero."
China sees Trump tariff pivot as "sign of folding"
According to the WSJ, although China retaliated with increased tariffs on US imports to 125 percent and seemingly has not seriously engaged Trump, China remains "open to trade talks" so long as Trump keeps things civil. Their ongoing demands that Trump drop the tough guy act continue, even as people who consult with Chinese officials told the WSJ that Chinese policymaking circles see Trump's latest moves "as a sign of him folding."
Chen Zhiwu, a chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, told the South China Morning Post that "the more he talks like this, the more it shows how anxious the US side is."
"Trump and his team are under pressure, but China isn't showing any signs of impatience," Chen said.
It's Trump facing all the pressure to end the trade war, Chen suggested. Trump risks his approval rating falling the longer markets appear destabilized, US economic growth forecasts appear threatened, and the US dollar's dominance in global trade risks disruption. Among those hardest hit are the tech industry and online retailers.
China has little reason to rush to make a deal that ends all that, if more power can be derived from waiting it out, Chen suggested, especially since the Chinese yuan's popularity is rising amidst the US trade chaos. Instead of rushing to meet with Trump, China is apparently wooing key US ally Japan to team up to oppose Trump's tariffs, Newsweek reported Wednesday.
On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that negotiations with China had not yet started, but "no one thinks the current status quo is sustainable, at 145 and 125 [percent], so I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation."
But Xu Tianchen, a senior China economist, told the South China Morning Post that China may decide to wait and force Trump to make maximum concessions under potentially more intense pressure.
"Rising living costs, economic disarray, and popular discontent will eventually force a definite pivot of Trump's approach," Xu said.
TikTok's fate remains in China's hands
Potentially adding to the pressure are questions about TikTok. Trump's initial wave of tariff announcements in early April apparently shut down the TikTok deal that would allow the popular social media app—which last year reported helping contribute $24 billion to the US economy in 2023—to continue operating in the US.
A person familiar with the deal told AP News that the US was very close to finalizing an agreement to spin off TikTok into a US-owned company in which current owner ByteDance would maintain a minority stake. But ByteDance was forced to shut down the deal after Trump rolled out tariffs because "China would no longer approve the deal" until the trade negotiations were resolved, the source told AP News.
At that time, a ByteDance spokesperson told AP News that there were still "key matters to be resolved" before reaching a TikTok deal.
The longer Trump pushes back the TikTok deal deadline, the less urgent the supposed national security threat that TikTok poses feels to Americans who have continued using the app without any changes ever since Trump paused enforcement of the TikTok ban law. While analysts claim that Trump looks soft to China, at least one TikTok user, Terrell Wade—who is known to his 1.5 million followers as @TheWadeEmpire—told AP News that Trump's tough stance on TikTok looks less serious, too.
"Every time a new deadline pops up, it starts to feel less like a real threat and more like background noise," Wade said. "That doesn't mean I'm ignoring it, but it's hard to keep reacting with the same urgency each time."
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Incompetent... and yet the most powerful man in the world. Kinda scary, hmmmm??
The article is right on the money - I would say that Trump bit off more than he could chew. As for TikTok, around half the population of America are gong to be damned pissed with Trump if they lose the use of TikTok, and it's a pretty good argument to ask "What National Security issue?" if tt's being allowed to continue so much longer in its existing form? Personally I hope China bars its sale, because the fallout will damn Trump. In the meantime China is solidifying its relationships around the world, especially in the Souith Asian world, while Trump blows it big. I'm loving watching this play out.
It would be hilarious... if it weren't so terribly sad.
Trump is such a fool. He didn't just shoot himself in the foot, he shot all Americans in the foot.
He'll make a shitty deal that puts us worse off than before. Then, he'll declare it to be a triumph and his legions will mindlessly believe it.
Yeah. That sounds about right..'
When I handled arbitrations and mediations, if one side came out happier and the other not, I did not consider it to be that successful. Never are both sides happy with the result, but if they are both equally unhappy I considered the result to be the best. However, I don't think that any settlement reached in this America vs China issue is going to end up better for Americans than it will for the Chinese.
Agreed. The biggest losers will be the American people.
Having posted an article about Shakespeare's birthday, one could say it's like a Shakespearian tragedy.
Is THIS the art of the deal?