Stocks Tumble as Inflation Risk Emerges in Wake of Iran War
Category: Stock Market & Investments
Via: bob-nelson • 8 months ago • 57 commentsBy: Joe Rennison and Jason Karaian - NYT
The S-and-P 500 slumped 1.5 percent as investors retrenched from the unpredictable effects that the fighting could have on the world economy
There's A LOT of news... and it all seems to be coming over my email alerts and RSS feeds. But hey... I'm retired, so I have too much time. For a while, I posted the best headlines every day. It was time-consuming, and no one paid any attention. So... I'm going back to simply seeding a few of the very best every day.
Renée and Alex will continue to headline all my seeds.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
A global market sell-off intensified on Tuesday, as Iran expanded its retaliatory attacks around the Persian Gulf region, and American and Israeli officials signaled that strikes on Iran could continue for weeks. Stocks and bonds fell and oil and gas prices surged.
The sharp rise in energy prices appeared to be driving investors’ concerns that the war could stoke inflation. When the conflict began, investors began raising inflation expectations and dialed down expectations for the number of times the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates this year — something the central bank is likely to do only if the inflation outlook is more stable. With Iran’s retaliatory strikes widening on Tuesday and the Trump administration warning that the war could be prolonged, that outlook seems more uncertain now.
“In a prolonged conflict, the combination of higher energy costs, disrupted logistics and a generalized confidence shock would constitute a meaningful drag on global trade volumes at precisely the moment the world economy was still digesting the inflationary and growth consequences of the tariff shock,” analysts at the bank ING noted. “The mother of all bad timings.”
-
Disruption to shipping on the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway on Iran’s southern border through which a large share of the world’s oil and gas passes, has upended energy markets. Oil prices continued to surge on Tuesday, with Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, rising more than 7 percent, pushing past $80 a barrel, its highest level since mid-2024. The price of U.S. gasoline jumped overnight, up 11 cents to $3.10 per gallon, according to AAA.
-
Natural gas prices soared. European natural gas futures jumped for a second day; prices have roughly doubled over the past two days. A measure of gas cargoes in Asia rose 45 percent on Tuesday. Qatar, a major exporter of liquefied natural gas to buyers in Asia and Europe, halted L.N.G. production after attacks on its facilities on Monday. On Tuesday, Qatar’s state-owned energy company said it would also pause the production of “some downstream products” like polymers and aluminum.
-
U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 1.5 percent. The day before, markets in New York recovered from early declines to close slightly higher. “Markets have a tendency to downplay shocks when the unexpected happens,” Robin J. Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in an analysis . “In my opinion, there’s a psychological reason for this: If you admit to being surprised, this means you didn’t see something coming, which in markets means you failed.”
-
Stock markets in Asia and Europe recorded a second day of steep declines. The main index in South Korea dropped 7 percent on Tuesday, while stocks in Japan fell 3 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell nearly 3 percent, with every market across the continent in the red.
-
Bonds around the world sold off, as investors assessed the prospect of a potentially prolonged war worsening inflation and spurring higher interest rates. Rising oil and gas prices could result in increased prices at the pump for consumers and add costs to a wide range of component parts for businesses. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, rose by 0.1 percentage points, to 4.1 percent, a big move in that market. Yields on government bonds in Britain, Germany and Japan jumped even more.
-
Alongside rising inflation and interest rate expectations, the dollar also rose. The dollar has traditionally been seen as a haven in times of turmoil but Tuesday’s move appeared more tied to the economic outlook. A gauge of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies rose 0.8 percent on Tuesday, a similar increase to the day before. Gold, another traditional haven during times of turmoil, dipped slightly, to around $5,200 per ounce.
Whatever
Tags
Who is online
86 visitors
Gee.
The stock market doesn't like a new war in the Middle East!
Who could ever have imagined such a thing??
I believe that Trump just announced that the stock tumble was Biden's fault.
No exit strategy.
Whatever form of IRAN emerges from this mess will still be a Sunni - Shia mess.
The next government will have to deal with the same issues they have fighting over for 1400 years.
The Sunni-Shi’a Muslim Divide: Why It Matters In The War Against Iran
Perhaps some other stocks do like it?
Defense stocks. Energy (oil and gas exploration stocks, pipelines, refiners, etc). and increasing inflation makes gold and most precious metals happy.
trump is manipulating the stock market with his actions, in conjunction with his billionaire henchmen ...
So what else is new?
If someone tried to twell me that "Now" markets are no longer manipulted-- I wouldn't beleieve them.
I've been trading stocks off and on for over 40 years. Initially I kept losing money. Lots of money!
So, realizing that wealthy "insiders" can-- and do-- manipulate markets-- there must be a way I could improve my results regardless of how wealthy, powerful-- even very corrupt-- individuals illegally control markets.
I still make mistakes. But overall I'm now doing well.
it's not gambling if you've gotten insider information ...
The national average for gazoline jumped 12 cents yesterday and signs are that it will not stop soon.
yea, but Mission Accomplished for Trump, not many talkin about the Pedo protecting pedophile in chief right now as many heads are still spinnin from the Americas' First betrayal, no more foreign wars, prices will come down on day 1, will end the Ukraine/Russia conflict in 24 hours, guy they thought they had elected. The guy who campaigned on getting to the bottom of the deep state that had been covering up the Epstein files affair & that has done any and all to keep the Epstein's Trump files from being produced. The same guy who to this day states that tariffs will be paid by other countries, not US, all while they were recently ruled not his to impose while costing an average of like $1,300 per citizen.
What a complete FCKN disaster Trump 2.0 has been, and all after trying to overthrow the 2020 election after stealing Top Secret records and storing them in a bathroom closet and on a stage in Mar a Largo. The same guy who followed the 2025 plan he claimed to know nothing about and ordered Ice to melt Americans along side any and all peoples with slightly more pigment, cause Trumpy was meant for pigs.
This latest betrayal tops em all. Starting a war with Iran after predicting if Obama would have, it was just a distraction.
How many people, how many US Citizens, need to die to keep his distraction from the Epstein/Trump files from being exposed. The damn government was closed for two months to avoid the getting the necessary votes to demand the release of the pedo boys files.
What a fckn DISGRACE 47 is and has always been. We now face much more uncertainty in our world all because Americans were too ignorant to educate themselves and make proper informed choices in our elections. I am completely disgusted with this POS and any who attempt to defend this fckr. SSorry to you and Bob for veering slightly off course, but I believe you guys are also in disgust with what this clown has now done. As every time we think OMG, how the fck can Trump get away wiht this, until the next time we have to exclaim, he did WHAT now, only to beat that next feat via action or tweet the following day.
And the GOP are needed for him to go away, and theyhave so little to criticize and say, so from me, FCK YOU GOP
You all have blood on your hands
Looks like you are claiming Biden is a pedo protector because, as you and many others have been told, if there was something seriously nefarious concerning Trump in the files, more than one Biden regime lackey would have leaked it.
Wonder why they didn't s/
Here is a question I have asked several other leftists here but I have never been given an answer. Maybe you can be the first.
Why didn't you demand, either on here, or to your congress critter, to demand the Biden regime release the files during that 4 year fiasco?
They dropped the ball. It SHOULD have been investigated starting back under BUSH!
Why do you suppose the New York and New Mexico Epstein investigations were shut down in 2019 under Trumps' first DOJ ?
Not what I asked.
Here it is again...
Why didn't you demand, either on here, or to your congress critter, to demand the Biden regime release the files during that 4 year fiasco?
Well let me tell you why I did not, and I expect you to list what you had posted, or written to your representative and or senators in regards to petitioning to have Epstein further investigated, including those in his proximity.
I was not fully aware of the extensive depths and extensive scope of persons involved in this GIANT COVERUP of a damn child sex trafficking ring. If you knew the extent of Trumps OBVIOUS involvement in this disgusting case, and what Trump has actually been accused of doing to children, and still voted for this POS, you are sick as well, imho.
I had read that Trump and Epstein were both accused of raping a 13 year old girl, but she did not show up to pursue case because her life and family possibly, had been threatened. I believe this happened. I believe the Groper, pussy grabbin, women degrading Trump, is guilty of some sick shit. It would be great if they released all of the info, but pretty sure we will Never see this happen. I believe Trump is not capable to lead this country, as he is crashing it down rather expeditiously this time around, no ?
I do appreciate you answering my posed question further above.
Something you are probably aware of-- Joe Biden is no longer president. And neither is George Bush-- nor, for that matter, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Nor harry Truman, Nor Abraham Lincoln).
But you already knew that, eh?
AHA!
An actual "whaddaboudism"!
And a real one. "tis been a while since we've had a really good whaddaboudism here!
If not an actual guffaw, it at least makes for a fairly decent chortle....
You on the left are hilarious. No matter how many times Biden was criticized on here, inevitably a leftist would deflect to Trump .
Do you not see the hypocrisy in your statement?
‘ I was not fully aware of the extensive depths and extensive scope of persons involved in this GIANT COVERUP of a damn child sex trafficking ring’
Yea. Ok….
’I had read that Trump and Epstein were both accused of raping a 13 year old girl, but she did not show up to pursue case because her life and family possibly, had been threatened. I believe this happened’
’you read’ care to show a link to what ‘you read’
I’m sure you believe Biden never took showers with his daughter because ‘you read’ that he said he didn’t.
‘I believe the Groper, pussy grabbin, women degrading Trump, is guilty of some sick shit’
Of course you believe. If Trump had a D next to his name, we would not be hearing a word from the left.
’believe Trump is not capable to lead this country, as he is crashing it down rather expeditiously this time around, no ?’
Your opinion. 77 million people believe you are wrong
Pitiful
I stated the truth, I was not fully aware.
What have you stated as i requested ?
Were you aware ? Yet still voted for this POS?
.
I read it prior to the Epstein files that were recently FORCED released, in the biographer Wolfs' account. You can now ALSO read it in the Epstein/Trump pedo files if you
are allowed.
Bullshit pal. I'll call out anyone from any party or anyother type of affiliation. That's the big difference between me and cult followers!
.
And for your info on Trumps' voters, many, many many, have finally realized what a POS LYING PO-TRASH Trump truly is, and now truly regret their votes, thus why he is in full election manipulation mode.
When do you suppose EWE will ever wake up and realize the damn truth....
[✘]
‘Pitiful’
Yes…..your posts are
But do you not see the fact that Biden is no longer president-- but Trump is?
Thank you for the compliment!
And why we're at it-- why didn't more people demand that when other past presidents were in power?
For example-- President Warren G, Harding. (Supposedly he was one of the most corrupt).
And what about Nixon-- could more have been demanded of him.?
As a fairly active trader I've been watching the market carefully-- and occasionally doing some trades. These are uncertain times. And I believe Trump's policies will cause inflation to continue to rise.
One of the best ways to hedge in these uncertain (and inflationary) times has traditionally been Gold. And seems like Trump's policies will cause both uncertainty and inflation to continue to increase....
So the last two days I've been buying Gold. (A covered call gold ETF both for the significant dividend and also as a safer way to play this)
For a while now many people looked for another way to do this (by not using precious metals). Many had hoped to accomplish similar or better results buying Bitcoin. But that doesn't seem to be working as well....so I buy the covered call gold etf-- and for added safey DRIP it. (Over time that will also lower your cost basis).
I cashed out of a dozen losers and rolled my cash into something paying 5.10% each and every month.
I don't have enough years left to worry about discovery of the next "google".
I think gambling on gold is still gambling and at these prices it's bound to fall
especially after what China claims to have found.
Of course.
Stocks go up. And stocks go down. But a while back I discovered a few ways to reduce risk:
1. DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plans). This takes advantage of "dollar cost averaging" (Automatically re-invests dividends-- so it buys more when prices are lower, buys less when they are higher).
2.Selling Covered Calls This brings in income regardless of stock price. (because you are selling something-- the call-- you get paid)
One downside-- you have to monitor the Call price. Time consuming. So-- there are Covered Call ETFs-- they trade the calls for you for a small fee (many of mine charge just over 1/2 of a percent/year)
I like the NEOS products. Their IAUI is a covered call ETF. It might not be right for everyone. The fee is a little higher (0.78%), But it has some other positives.
I like the NEOS products. Their IAUI is a covered call gold ETF. It might not be right for everyone*. The fee is a little higher (0.78%), But it has some other positives.
______________________________
*Disclaimer: I am not recommending buying or selling any stock or ETF. These ideas just reflect some of the stocks or ETFs I own-- or that like, Because they fit into my needs they may or may not be right for anyone else. By all means do your own research because your situation may be different than mine.
1. Playing the Stock Market is always gambling. (Unfortunately few people realize that).
2. But there are different ways to become a more sucessful gambler.
3. gambling on gold is still gambling and at these prices it's bound to fall
I've been doing it for years-- and at first almost always lost money. I still make mistakes-- but now usually come out ahead.
(And over time I come out ahead. How? One way to reduce risk? trading Options-- specifically Selling Covered calls on dividend paying products. Gold or others things).
P.S: I finally found strategies to increase my odds of sucess in the market regardlesssof whether stocks go up or down.
(Because if you're buying decent companies that's what their stocks do-- they go up, and down, up and down...rinse and repeat!
And as always, its crucial to remember: Past performance is no guarantee of future results!
That seems like a smart thing to do!
A while back I finally bought some QQQI and occasionally add small amounts of money to it. . Now its my largest holding. (Its an ETF consisting of the Nasdaq 100. Currently pays dividends monthly. The yearly dividend is over 14%). And since its a covered call ETF its relatively low risk,
Since Trump was elected I realized his policies would be inflationary. (especially but not limited to, his Tariffs). One classic hedge against inflation is investing in precious metals, especially gold.
There are different ways to do that, but I decided upon a strategy similar to QQQI-- its another covered call ETF that invests in Gold. So I own IAUI-- a gold covered call ETF that also pays dividends monthly currently paying a yearly dividend that varies slightly but is usually somewhere between 10 and 12 percent.
Many people are not familiar with the strategy of selling covered calls. (Although I no longer sell them-- the ETFs do that for me).
A Gold ETF moves in the same direction (Up or Down) as the "POG" (Price of Gold). But while it moves in the same direction its moves are smaller.
So for example if the actual POG moves up say 1%, the price of the Covered Call may move up only .3 %. Same with moves down. (These are numbers I just made up)>.
So what does it mean? If the actual POG moves down, so does the price of the covered call-- so you loss is much smaller. (Covered calls decrease risk). But if the actual POG takes off, the POG of the Covered Call also increases, but by less.
Covered calls decrease amt of possible loss-- but also decrease the amt of gains.
But: over time you keep on getting paid a dividend-- every month.
And if you don't immediately need the cash. you can DRIP it and over time that might lead to significant gains!
At this point is important to mention:
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS! These ideas are just indicative of what I am doing-- these ideas may not be useful to you!
And remember, investing involves risk. It is possible that you may lose some or all of your invested capital!
Now we have gone from $2.32 to $3.19 in 6 days.
Hat's off to the A team, it's like they intentionally shoot themselves in the foot and declare "WINNING"!
Where is that data from SP?
According to EIA data HERE , the recent national low point was $2.90/gal on Jan 12, 2026 and it is currently at $3.15/gal as of 3/2/26.
A far cry from the high point at at $5.11/gal on 6/13/22.
Just be glad you don't live in California! According to AAA the current average gas prices here are $4.74/gal. Although, I can shave about $.30-$.40 off that at Costco.
What ever day Trump said it was for the last several months and the SOTO.
He also said "he saw" signs in Ohio where it was #1.99 and even $1.85
but those were both brief promotional events.
It's been between $2.27 and $2.43 here in Dallas for a long time. Suddenly $3.19
but then we don't buy much gas anymore, lol..
Sheesh! Probably best not to repeat any of his numbers!
Did you get an EV? I have been looking at them, but still have a couple years of payments on our current vehicle. Looking for the best technology for our needs. Lots of travel to San Diego to visit with our kids and new grandson. Gotta have range and charging that is relatively quick.
BYD when they are available.
Hyundai/KIA and Toyota are still committed to EVs and I see no change coming there, just improvement.
We have a 2016 MB C300 paid for with 60,000 miles and we leased a 2024 Toyota Camry that has less than 3k on the odometer but the Mrs hates new fangled things.
She barely tolerates our solar panels, starts growling and muttering Spanish curses at me, so an EV was just a bridge too far, lol.
When I was in Orlando for conference in October, the Uber was a KIA Carnival hybrid which was super impressive for taxi use around the airport.
I believe the EV6 is their best electric car with the best charging rate but it is all improving so fast, it's hard to make a decision.
hide all the cutlery in the home, pronto ...
Chanklas (slippers) are the favorite weapons of Abuela.
meh, that stops being a weapon of terror at age 5 ...
C'mon I've seen grown ass gang members freak out and beg forgiveness, it's not just the chanklas, it's the love.
who wouldn't freak out if their granny came at them, waving anything, with mayhem in her eyes. if granny comes at you, you really fucked up. a line I never crossed.
it was the wooden spoons that looked like they'd never been intended for use in a kitchen. I do seem to remember an impromptu poll taken in an elementary school I attended and the top 3 domestic child control implements at the time were wooden spoons, belts, and razor straps, ... which was especially depressing to remember at my age.
The national average for gazoline jumped 12 cents yesterday and signs are that it will not stop soon.
The average person wants to see the price of gas to go down.
But some people invest in the Stock Market. Some trade frequently. People have different opinions, different theories of how the market works.
So at almost any given time some will have their aggregate holdings go down, others will have their holdings go up. Others will have a few-- or one-- stock go up or down in the opposite direction of the rest of their portfolio.
Some people will hold stocks for long periods-- others will trade frequently.
So what does this mean? Simply that smart investors (those who do their research) can make money in any market.
The price of oil is controlled by supply and demand. Well, perhaps more accurately, its controlled by anticipated changes in supply and demand. Or...by perceived changes in supply and demand.
So whenever war breaks out (or even is expected to break out) in an oil producing region, there's is an increased probability that the supply will decrease-- so the price goes up.
Looks like you don't know who the POTUS is. Sad..
GOP = guardians of pedohiles
MAGA = molesters always get anonymity
And here is the S&P as of this point today 3/4/26 . Maybe we shouldn't snap shot worst case and project a disaster until we see how it plays out?
That might be a good idea.
OTOH in some cases that might result in a missed opportunity.
I've missed great opportunities because I waited too long. OTOH sometimes I got in or out of positions much too early.
(Over time smart traders learn strategies to reduce risk)/
And that is great. Well they should until ICE is forced to examine their methods, admit their faults, and find ways to avoid escalation like these cases in the future. There have been others as well, not just Renee and Alex.
You do realize that there were 59 shootings that included 23 deaths involving ICE agents, from 2015-2021 according to one study ? This has been going on for a long time and not a single ICE agent has been held responsible in any of these cases.
Biden tried to reform the previous decades old "Use-of-Force" policies (including those used in the Obama era) in May of 2022, but that was promptly picked apart by Trump in 2025. Per Google AI:
Not a helpful move on Trump's part in my estimation.
So much winning …
Energy analysts warned that there was no limit for oil prices as they rose in response to the war in the Middle East.
I'm always amazed at how fast the prices at the pump go up while the oil is still stuck on tankers in the middle east ...