Ignore the media’s hysteria: Iran’s reduced to tactics of desperation
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
You’d never know it from media reports, but the Iranian regime is struggling to survive — what’s left of it, anyway.
“A drawn-out war” could have “catastrophic consequences,” screams one New York Times report.
Other outlets claim President Donald Trump fell into Iran’s “trap”’ and he’s now stuck in a war of his own making . We’re doomed!
Step back and look at all the facts.
Yes, Tehran for now has managed to halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices.
But that’s a tactic of desperation.
Consider: As the United States systematically destroys Iran’s military , Israel is methodically taking out regime leaders, top Revolutionary Guard figures, Basij goons, special police and their command centers.
Tuesday, US forces dropped 5,000-pound bunker buster bombs on “hardened Iranian missile sites” near the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command reports, targeting anti-ship cruise missiles that threatened shipping there.
In the past few days alone, Israel took out several key figures, including de facto top dog Ali Larijani.
The Times fretted over that , portraying Larijani as a “relative pragmatist,” someone the West could negotiate with — when the guy just oversaw the execution of tens of thousands of innocent Iranians simply for protesting: That’s his idea of “pragmatism.”
The Israeli “regime shrinkage” campaign began with the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous other bigs, and marches steadily on: They can’t hide.
US forces have destroyed much of Iran’s Navy , missile and drone stocks, military bases and weapons-manufacturing sites.
Iran can’t even show the world its chosen successor to Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei, publicly — possibly because he’s dead .
Its missile and drone attacks have waned; it husbands dwindling supplies because every missile launch is quickly followed by the destruction of that launcher.
Anti-regime Iranians are helping Israel and the United States by providing they’re own intel, pointing out key targets.
Defections and desertions are rising. The Wall Street Journal reports several Iranian forces sleeping “in the nook by the stairs” or housing themselves “inside buses” for fear of being struck.
In a call with a Mossad agent, one commander swore “on the Koran” he wasn’t Israel’s enemy and begged the Jewish state to “please come help us” oust the regime, per a leaked phone call .
The deadenders aren’t yet ready to throw in the towel, but their renewed crackdown on dissent is yet another sign of the regime’s fragility.
Indeed, the Islamic Republic now seems destined to fall — even if not by the war’s end; at the least, it will be completely defanged, including the loss of any ability to close the Strait.
It’s like Ernest Hemingway’s description of how you go bankrupt: “gradually, then suddenly.”
The biggest risk to the West now is buying the media hysteria and quitting too soon .
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And please let ChatGPT know that multiple sources have now posted that Israeli forces killed two more top Iranian figures, including ... Ali Larijani
Fight. Fight for the freedom of the protesters. Fight for the end of the regime that calls America "The Big Satan", and calls out "Death to America".
The United States spends 90 times more on the military than Iran. The US spending on the first 20 days of the war has been double the annual defense budget for Iran. (Iran's defense budget was ~$9 billion and the US has spent ~$18 billion, so far.) If the US cannot achieve dominance in a kinetic war environment with Iran then US taxpayers have been badly cheated.
The economic markets are not viewing these tactical successes as victory simply because businesses operate in a quite different risk environment. The yield on US Treasuries are increasing which suggests the national debt has lost its luster as a safe haven. Defense sector stocks are serving as a lifeboat for the equity markets which is hiding heavy hits to tech and airlines. Since the war has now escalated to damaging oil infrastructure, the resulting inflation won't be transitory.
There has been some commentary celebrating China's loss of oil suppliers (Venezuela and Iran). But that only means China will be competing in global markets for a smaller oil supply. Won't that cause oil prices to remain elevated?
Yes, the US military is very, very good at destroying things and killing people. But the US military is not very good at being thrifty in obtaining tactical wins. Don't ignore the lessons of history that in an asymmetric war, the little guy does have advantages that no amount of war materiel can provide. And the lingering effects of the destruction does diminish the value of a victory.
You are looking at the expense side of the ledger.
How about having eyes on the prize?
No one has explained what is the prize. Trump's idea of a win seems as changeable as the weather. Hegseth keeps upping the ante every time the US deploys devastating force and the Iranian leadership doesn't capitulate. The more that the US destroys only seems to embolden the Iranian regime. And now it is beginning to look like Israel gets the credit for decapitating the Iranian leadership. There is little doubt that Israel will just walk away like they did with Gaza, sticking the US with the mess.
A popular uprising won't necessarily be friendly to Israel or the United States. If Trump walks away, dumps the restoration onto the shoulders of others, then the US loses any influence over what emerges. Otherwise Trump will need to commit the US to another decades long nation-building exercise to buy a friendly regime. All the way out or all the way in; there aren't a lot of other options.
The Arab states won't need the US nearly as much now. While some may say that's a win by removing an entanglement, that would also cede control of the petrodollar to the Arab states. Removal of the destabilizing influence of Iran would lessen the need for defensive posturing by the Arab states. The imbalance created by the removal of Iranian influence could give rise to prioritizing commercial interests or a religious revival and increasing sectarian conflict or possibly a renewed anti-west political movement. The Arab states will be too unsettled to predict or guide what comes next.
So, what is the prize? Regional chaos? Simmering threats beyond our control? More taxpayer money spent on a region of little importance to the US? Loss of control over the petrodollar? Defending Israel at all costs? Or is the prize just a hollow victory parade?
Please read this before you go any further. It is an op-ed by Al Jazeera. I happen to think the article speaks for the gulf states who are shy about saying how they feel about Iran:
Al Jazeera op-ed praises US-Israel operation against Iran, says Dems, media critics are wrong
Okay, I read it. So, what? Qatar isn't on the hook for the $200 billion supplemental Hegseth is requesting. This is a freebie for Qatar so why wouldn't they be ecstatic? As I pointed out, the US military had better be able to dominate the kinetic battle environment. If not, the US taxpayers have been sorely cheated.
The Al Jazeera op-ed doesn't address the issues I've raised. There isn't any discussion of what comes next. The op-ed confirms the planning of the operation relies upon three factors: 1) destroy Iran, 2) a miracle happens, 3) the world is wonderful.
Al Jazeera is Qatar's state funded news organization. The op-ed isn't a strategic analysis, it's a thank you note from a country receiving a gift. The op-ed doesn't seem to acknowledge that Iran's influence over the region is control over the Strait of Hormuz which hasn't required ballistic missiles, nuclear threats, or high tech weapons.
Here's some other reporting to consider before declaring the war over and victory at hand:
' We weren't consulted': Qatari official warns Gulf will face Iran's retaliation if US ends war
Yes, it is. They are finally saying thank you for ridding the region of this evil regime which had been armed to the teeth.
No it is not, and btw Muhanad Seloom is not an employee of Al Jazzera, he is but one lone voice in the acrid mysts of war.
The best the Trump administration can hope for is that their base 'ignore' facts, 'ignore' their war of choice, 'ignore' the deaths of American soldiers, 'ignore' the nearly billion dollars a day spent on this unnecessary war, 'ignore' the lack of clearly defined objectives, 'ignore' the financial irresponsibility and higher gas prices, 'ignore' the lies about not coordinating an attack on the oil fields with Israel and 'ignore' the attack on a school killing over a hundred children. Yes, Trump and his ball licking sycophants would love it if everyone would just 'ignore' Trumps actions and behavior, because in any normal political environment, Trump would have been thrown out like the discarded rotten meat he is. But in today's conservative MAGAverse, the bitter insane religious conservatives have circled their wagons around the dear Leader of their religious cult defending anything and everything he does. Truly sick to watch. Vomit inducing even, for real patriotic Americans to have to suffer through this criminal Presidency, but they aren't ignoring anything and it will ALL come down on the smug fat rightwing conservative faces this coming midterm.
But do not ignore the purveyors of what the admin would like you to believe, NYP editorials.