Xi Warned of the ‘Thucydides Trap.’ What Is It?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The Chinese president invoked a warning from the Classical world, when the Greek city-states of Athens and Sparta went to war, saying that the United States and China should beware the “Thucydides Trap” in their own relations.
Mr. Xi cited the concept, popularized in recent decades, as he warned that Beijing and Washington could enter an “extremely dangerous place” if President Trump sought to impede China as it asserted itself over Taiwan.
The trap referred to by Mr. Xi was named for Thucydides, the ancient Athenian general, whose account of the Second Peloponnesian War (431 B.C. to 404 B.C.) is considered one of the first written military histories.
For some scholars, the war — and the explanation offered for it in that ancient passage — presaged nearly every major conflict to follow. The international relations theorist Graham Allison dubbed it the “Thucydides Trap” in the early 2010s.
“The idea is that when an established, great power is met with a rising power, conflict between the two is certainly likely if not inevitable,” said Daniel Sutton, a classicist at the University of Cambridge who studies Thucydides, on Thursday.
In Mr. Xi’s version of the analogy, an emboldened China is the Athens to an American Sparta.
To demonstrate his theory , Professor Allison identified 16 times in history that a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. According to his tally, which is subjective, 12 of the 16 rivalries ended in a conflict.
For more than a decade, Mr. Xi and top-ranking Chinese diplomats have invoked the concept, but presented it as a cautionary tale rather than an inevitability.
It was on his mind again on Thursday. Speaking before Mr. Trump in the Great Hall of the People, Mr. Xi said the world had reached a new crossroads. “Can China and the United States overcome the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers?” he asked.
Ryan Swan, a China-U.S. relations expert at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies in Germany, saw Mr. Xi’s repeated use of the concept as part of a wider diplomatic effort by Beijing to cast itself as a “responsible great power” that can coexist peacefully with the United States.
Since taking office in 2012 , Mr. Xi has pressed for the United States to treat China as an equal and not oppose Beijing in its backyard, a validation that Chinese officials believe would produce a more stable coexistence.
“China views the Thucydides Trap not as a predictive model, as it has occasionally been used in Western circles, but as a threat that can and should be avoided,” said Mr. Swan.
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Thucydides? Someone should inform Xi that Donald doesn't get the well tailored Greek joke about Euripides and Eumenides.
meh, maga won't be reading anything they can't pronounce or spell ...
Maybe someone could explain it to Trump using crayons and single syllable words.
Too advanced plus with the multiple colored crayons, he'll claim DEI, make homophobic & xenophobic remarks against the rainbow colors, especially the blue-green & green-blue ones, accuse the other crayons of being racist against the white one, try to gerrymander the blues, oranges, greens because there are more than one, you know blue, lite blue, dark blue, midnight blue
He really hates the magenta one. It takes like what? 5 colors to make it? maybe more
I bet his favorite is the orange one.
I won;t either until I google it.
I just googled it. I get the joke
good luck explaining it to maga ...
I wouldn't even try. I don't have the 8 count Crayola box
Puns aside, anyone who wants some insight into China should watch:
Inside China's Tech Boom | NOVA | PBS
I wish someone could convert that link to one that I could open. I am curious about gaining some insight into China.
Why can't you open it? I clicked the "X" to close the email screen and went right to the article. Both video and transcript were open and available.
This is what I get when I click on the link.
The link above is to Amazon and the video we see. . . you can see it under a 7 Day PBS Documentary trial. Usually Amazon permits watching during trials and will allow you to not proceed to subscription if you cancel it before the period ends. (Usually they will remind users of subscription rate upcoming.) You can mark your calendar for five day removal of the trial or such according to your needs.
President XI is right to warn the United States that high-stakes are underway. . .as the new (old) Kid inevitably will catch the 'eye' of the seasoned old Champ and a game will be 'afoot.' The thing is to not let the Challenge become so much of a competition that one must topple the other. What was not stated in the article about the 'times' when rising powers squared up with the existing world leader is how each 'pairing' managed to 'humble' and tamp down their internal ambition for 'EMPIRE.'
Allowing for co-existence. This could be an interesting discussion! For as we know this president is a competitive 'Fool' that would like nothing better than to rise to the challenge of suppressing a great nation like China. . .that is, deliberately subordinating China and keeping it 'contained.'
Since Taiwan was 'listed' in the accounting of the 'tale'. . . apparently China is actually WARNING America that it will not be 'Second fiddle' to U. S. interest where China interest (Taiwan) is concerned. That is, the subtlety here is this: China wants what it considers its 'property' back, and it is warning the U.S. (the old 'guy' let's say) not to talk down or 'patronize' the new 'guy' rising over the matter.
Interesting. Dangerous. Stuff. Just. Stepped. Onto. The. Grand. Stage. of the World!
Stated another way: The new (old) guy - China. . . is indicating that if push comes to shove China thinks it can take the "Old guy" U.S. down. I think in Chinese vernacular it is called: A matter of national discipline (China) versus national excesses (U.S. freedom to be)
I think that there is a difference between the desires of the two leaders. Trump has already established that it is important to him that America be "Top Dog" (which I believe is echoed by most Americans), what is important to Xi is that the Chinese people be as good as anyone, and uses the word "partner" rather than "competitor". Xi has already proven his intent that everyone be okay, not necessarily HAVE to be better than anyone else, by eradicating abject poverty, i.e. everyone has a roof over their head, decent food on the table, free education to high school greaduation and adequate health care - Bread and Circuses, CB, Bread and Circuses.
Yes Buzz, I can see that happening right now. They are 'playing' nice with each other. And yes, old "America First!" will come home smiling or steaming over what he was given or lack during his China visit. It remains to be seen and heard once a full analysis is complete. President Xi wants Taiwan (badly and is focused on it like a 'hawk'). Trump loves, really loves 'Hardball.' We, in the U.S. have to wonder just how much 'Hardball' Xi plays - if at all!
I do have one question, and I will be fair to 'say' that I do no know how it stacks up to someone on the ground in China province:
Why does China want a nation (back) that does not wish to come to it?
Honestly, what is the attraction. I did not understand it fully over Hong Kong either. (I have been to Hong Kong once.)
Perhaps just to consolidate what historically should belong to it - it is the same people. But really, just as America does not want to have a Communist nation such as Cuba next door, China does not want a Democratic nation armed and supported by America next door even closer to it.
Don't forget the United Naitons Resolution that all accepted (including America) declaring that there was only one China.
Have you any idea what it's like to live in a country where people don't have guns?
I. . . understand. And yet, I don't. People should be free of all this 'control' by the whims and wishes of Others. . . the world over. Now then, having said that. . . I realize that the world is an "F-d up" place in that one regard!
As to your question. . . All I can say is this:
HA!
No, I do not. (And, so I do not understand the question.)