RealClearPolitics Predicts a Herschel Walker Victory in Georgia and a GOP Majority in the Senate
By: Kipp Jones (MSN)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
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RealClearPolitics predicts in its latest "Battle for the Senate" projection that Democrats will lose their Senate majority, while embattled GOP nominee Herschel Walker will prevail in Georgia.
Three weeks before the midterms, the polling data aggregator predicts Walker will defeat incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in their race. Warnock leads in the RCP average by 2.4 points, but the latest poll from Landmark Communications shows the candidates tied at 46% each.
The survey was conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 17, meaning in that poll, Walker has not only survived personal scandal but has actually gained ground with voters.
Other polls in the race show Warnock leading within their respective margins of error. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Warnock up by seven points. The poll was released 11 days ago on Oct. 7 - immediately after Walker denied allegations he paid for an abortion for a former girlfriend.
The current "Battle for the Senate" map predicts Republicans will hold a 52-48 majority after the midterms.
RealClearPolitics
In Arizona, RCP had projected incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) would lose his seat to Blake Masters. The battle map now predicts Kelly will keep the seat.
Elsewhere, in Pennsylvania, RCP predicts the GOP will flip Nevada away from incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). GOP candidate Adam Laxalt leads in five of six recent polls. His RCP average is +1.7 points.
Meanwhile, the aggregator predicts Mehmet Oz will defeat Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. The two are vying to take the seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).
In recent weeks, Oz has pivoted to a more moderate message than the one he shared while he campaigned during the GOP primary.
Additionally, Fetterman is plagued by speculation a stroke he suffered earlier this year has affected his ability to communicate. The Democrat is up 3.4 points in the RCP average, but only one of the polls used in the average has been updated since last month.
In Ohio, RCP projects Republican J.D. Vance will defeat Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) to take the seat currently held by Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH).
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Real Clear Politics, a conservative site, predicts that Republicans will win every one of the swing state Senate races.
I'm shocked ! Shocked I tell you.
Well at least the Dems have three weeks to turn this around.
FiveThirtyEight has the Dems slightly favored to win the Senate and Repubs favored to win the House.
In other words, they will be telling us the Republican victory was within the margin of error.
(I place the margin of error for my predictions at +/-100% and I am never wrong.)
With nothing to run on, turning it around isn't going to happen.
What do the republicans have to run on? Specifically.
Border security, controlled spending, you know, everything the Democrats have ignored.
No.
No.
No.
We both know that their focus has been on something that scares only them.
Border security - Name 1 single republican administration that had a secure border. Just 1....
Controlled spending - You mean control the spending so only the wealthiest get any like republican administrations do?
Everything the Democrats have ignored - How about what republicans have ignored like the middle class, women's control of their own bodies, middle class tax breaks, voter rights, climate change, international relations.
Compared to Democratic presidents, Republicans are estimated to add between 0.75% and 1.2 % more to the deficit (as a percent of GDP) each year they are in office.
A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy by 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.
Trump administration was the closest. And we saw what happened to that on Jan 20, 2021.
I mean sending billions to Ukraine, the useless "Inflation Reduction Act", tax breaks. The idiotic "tax the rich" rhetoric is just that - rhetoric. It's a failure that the left and Democrats are too fucking stupid to understand.
“Polls are telling us…”
Poll dancing now? The things you cite have been planks of the GOP platform for decades. And just what has been accomplished to address those problems whether in the majority or minority?
Nothing but words…so nothing.
So you are admitting that there has never been a secure border under democrat or republican administrations. So what is the republican plan to achieve something that they have never achieved before? Please provide a link to that plan.
That had to be achieved through Congress? How many congressmen voted against this aid? Did all of them?
The term "useless" is entirely your opinion. There are too many experts that disagree with you.
You apparently only object to "tax breaks" that do not go to the obscenely wealthy already. How dare he give tax breaks to the middle class?
Has not been done, you are now reaching for excuses.
If you cannot properly read the question, that is all on you. Now take your "spam" arguments to a different discussion.
I see you live in some delusional world where answering a question that was never asked counts as an answer for a totally different question.
What inaccuracies? I asked for something; "Name 1 single republican administration that had a secure border".
There are only 2 possible responses to this request:
1 - List the previous administrations that had a secure border, and (preferably) provide links that prove they were secure.
or
2 - Make the statement that there were NO administrations with a secure border.
Any other response is inane, trollish, and dishonest.