GOP should fear Michelle Obama candidacy
By: Douglas Schoen (Boston Herald)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Following a better-than-expected showing for his party in the midterm elections, an emboldened President Joe Biden, who just celebrated his 80th birthday, making him the oldest president in U.S. history, faces mounting pressure to officially announce whether or not he will seek reelection next year.
Despite lingering concerns about his age and health, Biden is viewed in Democratic circles as the party's best chance of staying in the White House. While the midterms provided some reassurance of Biden's political viability, the real issue is that the president has failed to informally anoint a potential successor, making him all-but indispensable.
Biden recently said that he intends to run again, a prospect that first lady Jill Biden is reportedly now "all-in" on. In all likelihood, Biden will be the Democratic nominee without a serious primary challenger — yet, there is no denying that this is a shaky prospect for someone who will be 82 years old in 2024.
To be sure, if Biden decides against running for whatever reason, chaos would ensue within his party. His natural successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, is an untenable option. Only 39% of Americans view her favorably, which is lower than the ratings of the last four vice presidents at this point in their tenure, and her handling of the migrant crisis at the Southern border has been widely deemed a failure.
None of the other potential 2024 hopefuls on the Democratic side — Gavin Newsom, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer and Cory Booker, among others — rise above the rest. Any would be highly vulnerable in a national contest against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is increasingly regarded as the heir apparent of the Republican Party.
Should Biden step aside, there is only one Democrat that the Republican Party would truly, and with good reason, fear in 2024: Michelle Obama.
The case for Mrs. Obama's candidacy is undoubtedly compelling. For one, she is one of the most popular political figures in the Democratic Party, and indeed in the country.
On top of the fact that she is viewed favorably by an overwhelming 91% of Democrats, recent polling finds her with a wide lead over a sans-Biden primary field: she is 8 points ahead of the second-place contender, Kamala Harris, and 12 points ahead of the third-place candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Given Mrs. Obama's universal popularity with the base and obvious association to the beloved former President Barack Obama, no Democrat would mount a serious primary challenge against her. She is the only alternative to Biden who could save the party from a grueling primary battle — one that would put intraparty divisions and rifts on display and delay Democrats' pivot to the general election campaign.
Her national appeal is also robust: she left the White House with a 68% favorability rating among all Americans, according to the last Gallup poll taken during the Obama Administration. A separate Gallup survey found that she was the most admired woman in the U.S. from 2018-2020 (the last time the survey was conducted). Additionally, according YouGov's tracker, her husband remains one of the most popular former presidents, with a 58% favorability rating.
Mrs. Obama is also in a rare position that few political figures find themselves in these days, as she is perceived as both authentic and well-qualified. She has seen the operations of the presidency up-close and has remained active in political causes; but she is not a politician, so she doesn't bear any baggage that could undermine her candidacy.
She is deeply admired, and has a celebrity-like aura that could generate much-needed buzz and excitement among both Democratic voters and donors alike. The level of enthusiasm that her candidacy would engender — with the Democratic base, as well as Independent women and minority voters — would reverberate down the ballot.
Mrs. Obama has repeatedly and adamantly insisted that she has no desire or intention to seek the presidency, and we now know that she was not a strong proponent of her husband's decision to run in 2008.
That being said, it is not difficult to envision a scenario in which Mrs. Obama is put in the same position that Biden was before the 2020 election.
Following the death of his son in 2015, Mr. Biden repeatedly insisted that he would not seek the presidency at any point in the future. But Biden jumped into the 2020 race at the urging of party insiders, who rightly concluded that he was the only Democrat who could prevent another four years of Donald Trump. Biden has since described his turning point as the 2017 Charlottesville riot, when Trump described the White supremacists as "very fine people."
To be sure, Biden had presidential ambitions long before 2020, while Michelle Obama has never expressed interest in the job. However, she could feel compelled to change her mind.
Mrs. Obama played an active role in the 2022 midterms, using her considerable clout to advocate for two of the core Democratic causes close to her heart, voting rights and women's rights.
Admittedly, it is improbable, but not impossible, that Michelle Obama will run for president in 2024. But there is no denying that she stands above the rest as the only prospective candidate who could assure Democrats another four years in the White House.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
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Michelle Obama would be unbeatable.
Let's roll.
Right now, I wouldn't be surprised if they ran Bill Ayers and won.
Michelle Obama is intelligent, charismatic, center-left, articulate, scandal free ...... she would beat anyone from either party.
But not entirely without blemish. Who can forget...
Add to that, she's really not been properly vetted for the role and was treated with kid gloves during his candidacy as well as all the time in the White House. It might be harder for her than you want to admit.
Michelle Obama would hit a sweet spot for a lot of voters. She doesnt act the fool like Trump, she's not old, she appeals to moderates, she is very smart, and she has the "it" factor. A 15 year old quote wouldnt even be a blip on the radar.
I disagree with this. The opposition would be banging this drum very loudly everywhere. Add in that she's really not been heavily vetted, what else might be hidden there that could be found. Running for the presidency is a tough gig, one has to expect that the wolves will come out looking for blood. And as I asked elsewhere, she's repeatedly stated she does not want to run for the position. What sort of agreement would be needed to get her to change her mind?
They tried to get her to run in the past, before both Hillary and lunch box Joe ran in 2016 & 2020.
She revealed then how much she disliked life in the fishbowl.
She is not well liked or admired outside of the core Democrat faithful.
She is of average intelligence, hard left, carries herself well, and has no more charisma than Hillary.
She also has no experience or accomplishments in domestic or foreign affairs.
She's all of these things...but she has no experience of public office. Of course, that didn't stop he who must not be named
Come on Greg, you know the GOP would be very worried if she decided to run. She would energize the base and of course she is not disliked nearly as much as Donald trump. And we both no that any attacks or criticisms of her from the right, no matter how legitimate, would quickly devolve into racist jabs from the extremists which would rapidly turn off independents (who are a far larger portion of the population than either party’s base).
Aside from that, Trump showed that you can be an abject failure for your entire life and still win the electoral college. So her lack of experience doesn’t really mean shit.
What do you use as a criteria for success?
I'm surprised she's only 8 points ahead of Harris, I would have thought she was much more popular.
But what sort of agreement would be needed to get her to run as she's repeatedly stated she has no desire to do so.
Obama is the perfect democratic candidate. Image over accomplishment.
She’s likable and left wing media worships her in a way few religious fanatics have ever worshipped their god.
Who cares If she’s never actually accomplished anything other than marrying a future president!
Sean, you gave us President Trump.
His greatest accomplishments in life were being a con man and serial sexual predator. Oh, he was also a successful game show host on tv.
Everyone is qualified from now on.
Nikki Haley would be a much better candidate for president. Michelle has more baggage than you want to admit, and like Hillary, rode on the coattails of her husband.
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There is no reason to bring Biden into a conversation about Michelle.
I am positive she doesn’t have any of the baggie Hillary or trump did, and she isn’t bland as hell like Hillary or a raging asshole and perpetual victim like Trump.
So basically she is as qualified as trump was, what’s your problem?
How many decades did she spend running a multi-national corporation?
She would be, by miles upon miles, the least qualified person to ever receive a major party nomination.
But trump doesn't check the necessary boxes.
Donald Trump was credibly accused of racial discrimination in housing and tax fraud related to his family's business. He has been sued hundreds of times for non payment on contracts. His company has repeatedly misrepresented information about the occupancy rate of his condo projects.
That is business. Then there is the pathological lying. And his birtherism.
He had zero qualifications for office in 2016.
Michelle Obama would be better qualified than Trump if she never did a thing.
It was the 70's John. Fifty years ago. FFS I am positive he and the company and his father weren't the only ones I am sure.
Are you still the same as you were and hold the same beliefs you had in the 70's?
Donald Trump has been a liar and a cheat his entire life. Why in God's name do you people make excuses for him?
Yeah, what Trump's dad in the early 70's can be blamed on Trump forever, but Biden's statements from the 70s are meaningless.
No excuses. Just adding context to your posit. Does Mr. Obama still smoke dope?
Trump was in charge of the properties accused of racial discrimination.
Your constant defending of trump , across the board, is pathetic.
I dont know. I know Trump still lies, cheats and swindles, and this is 2023.
Your constant defending of trump , across the board, is pathetic.
Lol. Pointing out the obvious (he had much more experience than Michelle Obama when he ran for President) is not defending Trump. If I say OJ Simpson won more Heisman Trophies than JJ McCarthy, I'm not "defending" OJ Simpson.
Funny considering she spent 8 years in the WH. I am pretty sure she has a better understanding at how things run there better than you or I.
Trump has never been anything but a dishonest businessman. Read some of the investigating reporting on him for gods sake. There have been books written about this.
Of course I'm not going to agree with you that a dishonest businessman is qualified to be president.
Michelle Obama was in politics , as a spouse, for over 15 years. As Ender says, 8 of them in the White House.
Your argument for trump is that he is rich. Didnt stop from from trying to ruin this country.
What was there, like 3k lawsuits against him for stiffing vendors.
LOL That's like saying my ex-wife is qualified to be a DBA since I was one for 25 years. Watching from the sidelines does not automatically provide any real education in what the job entails.
Michelle Obama has never been vetted for politics and has always been treated with kid gloves by the media on the left. She will be under a microscope if she even hints at being interested, so I doubt if she will change her mind.
f I were the candidate she was running against, it would be great point. But she would be running against someone who has been a President, or a Governor, or a Congressperson or combination thereof.
Outside of third world dictatorships, being married to the person doing the actual governing isn't an actual qualification.
That almost sounds like saying nobody should run unless they have been through the ringer.
I seriously don't think she will run at all and this is all just conjecture yet she has been through the ringer.
She has always been treated like shit from media on the right. So I fail to see how that relates to anything.
So you agree with relatives not being qualified huh?
I am sure you know where I am going with this....
She has been active. Do you think she just sat at the WH and waited to serve her husband?
Not at all. All I said was that she's not been vetted for the position and just being the wife of a politician does not make one ready to become a politician.
You're kidding, right? If you are serious then what media do you watch? Everything I saw with the exception of Fox they treated her almost like royalty. Fox was racist and couldn't stop talking about her bare arms but fuck, it was Fox. If you looked at her treatment from any left-leaning source it was amazingly light. Hell, you can go to YouTube and find a lot of interviews that were done with her. See for yourself.
Is there anyone that all American voters would want to vote for, Party or no Party? And if nobody's perfect, does it mean that the candidate from whatever Party or non-party that succeeds will be constantly tarred with their imperfections and torn apart so that nothing beneficial can possibly be accomplished?
It doesn't matter who runs as a candidate, they'll be hated by about half of Americans. Alfred E. Newman may as well run.