Don’t Count A Third Party Out In 2024
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Here is a small thought that arose from the big firing at CNN.
Shifts in personal fortune and unexpected turns remind us of what we know in the abstract and forget in the particular. They remind us that life is not, as a friend once reflected, a painting. In a painting the curtain doesn't move. In life it moves, often softly but sometimes, in a storm, wildly.
They remind us of rise and fall. Life is dynamic -- fate, chance and character play big, determinative roles. We go through the daily grind thinking nothing ever changes, but life is change. Sometimes it's barely perceptible; sometimes it goes boom.
"Expect the unexpected." That was the attitudinal advice of the veteran newsman Harrison Salisbury to the young then joining his profession. Born in 1908, he'd covered World War II, Moscow after the war, Vietnam. You have to hold your mind open to the constant possibility of sharp turns.
Donald Trump has now been indicted by a federal grand jury. We don't know how broad or persuasive the charges will be or the precise contours of the process going forward. We don't know if information to be released might leave a Trump-inclined voter saying, "That's it, I'm done." Or if the indictment will increase Mr. Trump's popularity, as legal charges have in the past.
Mr. Trump may be sailing unimpeded to the Republican nomination. He may be cruisin' for a bruisin'.
But here is the potential political surprise that is on my mind. For months people have been talking about a serious third party entering the 2024 presidential race. I believe that if the major party nominees are Joe Biden and Mr. Trump -- but only if they are -- a third party will certainly enter the race and put up candidates for president and vice president. And if a few crucial things break its way -- they have to get on almost every state ballot; and put forward a solid ticket, not a brilliant one but solid, two accomplished people, one from each party, presumably political veterans, whom people could see, hear, and think they could do the job -- they'd have an even or better than even chance of surprising history by winning.
If they can do those two difficult things, and avoid scandal and total incompetence, they could do it. I don't know other people who think this, but I do.
The biggest political group in America isn't Democrats or Republicans; it is the unaffiliated. Gallup, which does a monthly poll on political affiliation, reports a record number of Americans say they are politically independent. In March Gallup put the share of independents at 49% -- pretty much the same as the two parties put together. A Gallup analyst told Axios that while it's not unusual for the young to declare themselves independent more than the old, it is unusual that as Gen X and Millenials get older they seem to be staying independent and not joining a party, possibly out of aversion to a perceived stigma of partisanship.
An NBC poll in April reported 70% of voters don't want Mr. Biden to run for re-election, and 60% don't want Mr. Trump to run again. It said about half of Democrats don't want Mr. Biden. An AP-NORC poll found 44% of Republicans don't want Mr. Trump as their nominee.
These are huge numbers, and if you believe them -- they roughly comport with my observations, so I do -- then the predicates for a successful third party are there.
But here's where my mind always goes: Ross Perot launched his independent presidential bid in 1992, when America was a more normal country, one that colored more within the lines, and not as furious and polarized as now. Even then certain fault lines were emerging -- on trade, globalism, and the growing distance between elite perceptions of what was real and important, and those of common folk. Perot was a business visionary, the founder of a great company, Electronic Data Systems. He was public-spirited and blunt-talking. In June 1992 he was leading both George Bush and Bill Clinton. But his campaign was hapless and gaffe-filled, and he was unpredictable. He dropped out of the race, re-entered in the fall, said operatives were trying to spy on him, and by the end it was pretty much out there that Ross Perot was slightly crazy.
Even with all that, Perot got almost 20% of the vote. Twenty percent when they thought he might be a little nuts. With that in mind I can quite imagine a competent third party now getting 35% of the vote to the other guys' 32% and 33%, say. What would happen then? Most likely, no candidate would receive a sufficient Electoral College vote. The election would go to the House, causing uncertainty that would at some point be resolved. It would be real edge-of-the-seat stuff in a nation that already has too much edge-of-the-seat stuff, but also seems to like it.
The group No Labels has so far got a third party on five ballots. A spokesman said it hopes to be on 29 by the end of the year and 34 not long after. No Labels plans to hold a convention in April in Dallas to announce a ticket, and final ballot efforts will be led by the nominees. So far, state to state, it's been hand to hand. Democrats and their aligned groups see a third party as an existential threat. Trump people aren't in the game yet, but if and when Mr. Trump seems assured of the GOP nomination they likely will be. It's unknown and unclear which party would lose most through a third party challenge. My guess: both more or less evenly.
Third-party supporters always have a reputation as political dilettantes -- affluent people with too much time on their hands. They're slammed as unrealistic, the kind of people who'd order off-menu at a bad restaurant and assume for some reason the food will be better. Actually in the past when thinking about them I've been reminded of what JFK said, musingly, about businessmen and union leaders. Business executives he met with were well-educated, culturally conversant, sophisticated -- but strangely clueless about politics. Union leaders were unlettered and crude but knew everything about politics, down to the precinct level.
Third-party people like to get together and fantasize about their dream ticket. They should be hyperfocused instead on getting on ballots. And they should stop seeing themselves as the world sees them, nice dreamy centrists. They should take themselves and their position more seriously.
It will be hard to get the ticket right. Why not just throw the question open to a convention? Because you probably want seasoned and attractive political veterans as your nominees, but the moment prospective candidates come forward they're dead within their own party. They'll probably put themselves forward only if a nomination is sure.
A lot has to be done right to make a third party real. But I don't know why people dismiss the idea. Life is surprise. In life the curtain moves, and in a storm it moves wildly.
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I dont know if Peggy Noonan is getting senile or is tipping the jug too much, but this is craziness.
We should leave the future of our country up to the hope that a third party candidate can eke out a 35% to 33% to 32% victory?
And then watch it get thrown to House of Representatives because the nation loves "edge-of-the-seat" stuff" ?
What a detachment from reality.
I honestly fail to see how a third party would drastically change anything. So what is going to happen...we have the right and the left being like they always are and have a perpetual in the middle fence sitter party in there to...
( in there to ) nudge the election to Trump.
I can see why people may want a third party, I just fail to see what it would actually accomplish.
There will never be a political party without some sort of bend.
Who was it that use to be the constant spoiler? Was that Ross Perot....
Well, if there were a right wing party and a left wing party, a centrist party could tip the balance to whichever side it wanted at the time, or take ideas from either side and mix them together. It could end gridlock. Or it could be about issues that actually matter so that both sides would be less likely to just make shit up and present it as an actual issue.
I'm sorry. I just fell out of my chair I was laughing so hard...(not really)
The idea of no parties tickles my fancy.
If enough it could stop a super majority I guess. That would probably be a good thing.
The Green Party used to put up Ralph Nader for President.
Lets do that after we get Trump out of the picture.
Actually, some might say that this is the perfect time for creation of a viable 3rd party. Most of America has watched as the choices for elected leaders came down to Trump or Biden, held their noses and indicated their selection of the lesser of two evils. Now that is apparently happening again. If the right persons were chosen, I can see them putting in a good run.
There are problems with this though. First off, the oxygen has been stolen from the room by Trump for the past six or seven years. Everything political has been seen through that filter and all potential candidates are judged against the Donald. His closest competitor for the Republican nomination is doing his best impersonation of a New Old World fascist. Biden got elected because more people would have rather voted for a nitrogen-frozen stem cell than vote for Trump. Biden is doing OK and is a fairly average leader. Secondly, the Republicans tend to have more cohesion when they close ranks behind somebody. Thirdly, who would want to be in politics other than a self-serving megalomaniacal narcissist?
A good run is not good enough in 2024, unless the third party wins.
A "moderate" third party would almost certainly give the election to Trump. To believe otherwise is to believe that , otherwise, the moderate vote would split roughly 50-50 between Biden and Trump, or would favor Trump. I dont believe there is even a slight chance that is true. We are hearing from almost every poll right now that independents have turned away from Trump. If that is the case, independent votes for a third party candidate would take away votes from Biden, votes that could be needed to defeat Trump.
This election is far too much at risk of putting Trump back in office for this to be a good time to start voting third party.
Also, it would be Trump's dream (he and the media are already talking about it) to get back in office, because he can't be charged (or serve time) while the president for another four years. This country's system is "f-ed up."
Odd. There is to much of an autocratic bent already in the US government. If Putin can hold on long enough a 'third party ploy' with adequate funding and messaging by the media can guarantee him victory.
And since the 2020 election the message constantly being hammered is against Biden. Why? Is Russian/Saudi/Chinese money at play here?
I voted third party the last three presidential elections and if this turns into a Trump vs Biden rematch, I'll do it again. I refuse to vote for either one.
That is because you have integrity Ed, I have had both democrats and republicans tell me a vote for a third party candidate was a vote for the opposing party, or better yet, I threw my vote away, like integrity has no value to some.
A viable third party is an understandable pipe dream, given the possibility of another Biden/Trump election. Any system that results with those two as the only realistic choices seems irredeemably broken. Bit there is too much institutional weight behind the two parties and their power to scare people that their vote for a third party will be wasted. Our general elections have devolved into voting against candidates rather than voting for someone, so a third party has too big of a hill to climb to relevancy.
Our general elections have devolved into voting against candidates rather than voting for someone, so a third party has too big of a hill to climb to relevancy.
I see a lot of comments in this forum about dissatisfaction for both Trump and Biden. There’s probably a significant percentage of votes that can be swayed from people who are just plain sick of those two names, whether they are politically engaged or not.
This bears repeating. They have written the rules of getting elected to favor the parties in power.
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I am sitting here (disappointed) watching News Nation station and see the "moderate" network claiming itself to not be CNN or MSNBC or Fox and it has been 'wall to wall' Trump coverage since I got up (every time I turn on the television). In particular, I was appalled late this evening to see Trump's plane in the air about to land in New Jersey and (get this) there must have been a news MEDIA aircraft in the air TELEVISING the plane about to land. FREE WALL TO WALL COVERAGE OF DONALD TRUMP.
Trump made an earlier stop in another town and somebody (people) prayed over him (probably a gross waste of time). Another case of FREE WALL TO WALL COVERAGE OF DONALD TRUMP.
This is ridiculous. We simply are not into Donald Trump this way, but boy oh boy, are we made to be if we watch cable news!
This is sad. Dissappointing coming from the new network: News Nation.
Since I have been watching I am having quite a time finding the distinctions that make it different from any of the other competitive political networks.
IMO, more power to a third party. Liz Cheney could lead it. She's already earned the ire of her present party anyway, but unfortunately integrity has no chance in American politics. Just ask the lobbyists (if you're looking for the persons who most influence what happens in America).