Trump isn’t the GOP’s biggest problem. Abortion is.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Trump isn’t the GOP’s biggest problem. Abortion is.
The party is badly out of step with public opinion.
By Jennifer Rubin
Jun 19, 2023 06:46 PM
We are fast approaching the first anniversary of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, arguably the most hotly criticized Supreme Court ruling in the 126 years since Plessy v. Ferguson . The 2022 midterms gave us a peek at Dobbs’s possible impact on the national political landscape, saving scores of Democratic Senate and House seats, boosting female voter registration and enabling a clean sweep of pro- abortion -rights ballot measures.
In case there was any doubt as to the significance of stripping women of the right to bodily integrity, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April turned a normally 50-50 state into a 55.5-44.5 state in favor of Democrats when abortion was front and center.
There is every reason to believe that in 2024, the issue will be just as potent and the impact on Republicans up and down the ticket just as disastrous. “A record-high 69% say abortion should generally be legal in the first three months of pregnancy. The prior high of 67% was recorded last May after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization draft was leaked,” Gallup reports. “Gallup’s oldest trend on the legality of abortion finds 34% of Americans believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances, nearly matching last year’s record-high 35% and above the 27% average since 1975.” Moreover, “another 51% currently say abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, while 13% (similar to the all-time low of 12%) want it illegal in all circumstances.”
Many Republican candidates (for Congress, state legislatures and the 2024 presidential nomination) have vigorously pushed for a nationwide ban on abortion. That’s a dead-bang loser for the party. According to a new USA Today-Suffolk University poll , “Americans overwhelmingly oppose the next goal of many anti-abortion activists, to enact a federal law banning abortion nationwide. By 80%-14%, those surveyed opposed that idea, including 65% of Republicans and 83% of independents.”
Moreover, it’s not so easy for Republicans to drop a stance that 80 percent of the general electorate opposes. Forced-birth advocates have made clear they will not support candidates who shrink from the post radical antiabortion stance. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America blasted former president Donald Trump when he appeared to deviate from the most extreme position. The group’s president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, issued a statement declaring: “Holding to the position that it is exclusively up to the states is an abdication of responsibility by anyone elected to federal office.”
Republicans have shown no ability to restrain their most militant antiabortion voices. In state after state, they have passed a slew of draconian forced-birth laws that have resulted in near-deaths, trauma and hardship for women. Republicans thereby have locked themselves into a stance that simultaneously generates extreme opposition while producing nonstop stories demonstrating the cruel and dangerous results of their policies. In doing so, they’ve made their unpopular stance a critical issue in every state.
Ironically, Trump’s failed attempt to nudge the party toward a less damaging position serves as a warning to other candidates, who are now racing to outdo one another in fidelity to the forced-birth crowd. Former vice president Mike Pence, for example, has chastised Trump for wobbling on the issue . (“I believe that the cause of life has been the animating core of our movement for 50 years, and that the American people and Republicans long to see leadership that remains dedicated to the principle of restoring the sanctity of life to the center of American law.”)
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis , in an interview with the Messenger, knocked Trump for criticizing the six-week ban DeSantis signed into law. “He said it was ‘harsh’ to protect an unborn child when there’s a detectable heartbeat. I think that’s humane to do.” De Santis pronounced himself “surprised” that Trump would deviate from antiabortion orthodoxy.
Conventional wisdom suggests that Trump poses the biggest threat to Republicans’ 2024 prospects. Certainly, nominating a candidate who 60 percent of the country thinks has committed serious crimes might spell doom for the top of the ticket and therefore every down-ticket Republican. However, Republicans might eventually shed their attachment to Trump, recognizing the political implications of lining up behind someone facing criminal prosecution in multiple jurisdictions. But shedding their attachment to the most extreme and most unpopular abortion position might prove far more difficult.
Democrats, who smartly leaned into the abortion issue in the midterms, understand all too well the Republicans’ self-inflicted wound. If they can push swing states such as Wisconsin even a few points (let alone 10) in their direction, the 2024 election could mark the beginning of a permanent sea change in American politics. If so, Republicans will have only themselves to blame.
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They won more House votes than Democrats in 2022, when Roe anger was at its highest. "Normal" Republicans in battleground states did fine, even after signing bills that restrict abortion (See DeWine, DeSantis etc..)
They lost close seats, particularly in the Senate, because of Trump aligned candidates.
But after four years of Biden, I get why culture war is all Democrat have to run on.
Hahaha...OMG....
Seriously dude, take a look at your own party and what is has done or is doing.
What has DeSantis offered that is not culture wars? I have not heard one single policy position other than he wants to stop wokeness, whatever you all deem that to be at any particular time...
Abortion will be a bigger issue in 2024 than it was in 2022, because red states are implementing six week and 15 week bans.
I will flat out predict right now that DeSantis will never be president simply because he signed a six week abortion ban. He might as well drop out now.
Oh dear, an article by Jennifer Rubin, a once upon a time republican whose party left her.
She's crazy enough to be right up your ally. She's an even bigger punching bag than Tom Nichols.
I do like 'crazy' women ... a few of them have even liked me.
Trump is a problem for the GOP. Abortion banning is a problem for the GOP. Members like Marjorie Taylor Greene is a problem for the GOP. All together they are a disaster for the GOP.